Dave Wannstedt says he has heard ISU and Kansas to Big Ten

[SoDakHawk]

Unlike what was claimed by a few Hawk fans above, although OSU and Michigan lead the B10 in revenue and value, and are #1 and #3 nationally, but Iowa is in the upper third in the B10, among the leaders of the entire conference.

In fact, The Wall Street Journal has Iowa virtually on par with PSU in terms of revenue ($103M vs $100M) and value of program, both right around half a billion dollars. That surprised me, but their valuation takes into account each school's national brand, TV viewership, etc.

Sure, PSU has an even stronger FB tradition, but in dollar terms, Iowa is pretty much their equal.

Iowa in revenue and valuation would be AT THE TOP of the Pac 10, one of the top in the ACC, and in the upper half even of the SEC.

Iowa is a major national brand, and they pull in MORE than their fair share in the B10, and would be pulling more weight than the bottom handful of teams put together in the ACC or P10. All this "aw shucks we're just Iowa" stuff is total self-deprecating BS when you actually consider the numbers run by the economists and analysts at the most reliable business publication in the world, based on actual, publicly available numbers on revenues and TV contracts and advertising and viewership.

Case closed, and the doors to the B10 are closed to ISU and any other middling programs out there.

Get your heads around that, then dismiss all this BS about ISU's 2020 "TV viewership" when half the season saw most P5 conferences sitting out.

Back to the WSJ's numbers: ISU is waaaaay behind, would be SECOND LAST in the B10 in revenue, behind Indiana, NW, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland (all of which are MUCH more highly-respected and highly- anked academic institutions, by the way, the best of them ranked in the top 10, and the "worst" of them ranked in the 50s by US News, and ISU coming in at #118). ISU's FB revenues are ahead of Rutgers, though WSJ values the ISU FB program virtually on par with the bottom handful of B10 teams. (Rutgers ranked #63 by US News btw.)

No one in their right mind would want to include ISU as a charity case admit to the B10. Never happening.

Odd also that no one is considering that conferences adding new members aren't just looking at football, or even just FB and BB. They're looking at ALL sports. A new conference member would be expected to compete at most all sports with most other schools. Isn't ISU's athletic program missing many sports that most B10 schools have?

Adding ISU would seriously dilute the B10's brand and academic reputation, and as Stuart Mandel and others have pointed out, would cost many millions in revenues to all other B10 schools if the pie were divided up even more with a middling program and institution like ISU. No insults intended, but that's just reality when you look at the numbers and rankings.

Adding highly ranked schools like ND or UVA or UNC or Georgia Tech would make more sense though, and I'd be more excited about that prospect, though not thrilled because I still feel the B10 needs to be a midwestern conference, true to its roots.

I hope these facts reassure a few of the "we're only Iowa" folks on this board, though they are not gonna quiet the Clone Trolls, because they are all about magical thinking, cognitive dissonance, and confirmation bias.

Fast forward a few years and run those numbers with ISU relegated to mid-major status and Iowa as the only Power conference member in-state. Iowa will be that much more valuable of a property. Another reason for the BIG to not invite ISU. The BIG can get a bump simply by subtracting ISU from the major conference ranks.

 

[His Hawkness]

Fast forward a few years and run those numbers with ISU relegated to mid-major status and Iowa as the only Power conference member in-state. Iowa will be that much more valuable of a property. Another reason for the BIG to not invite ISU. The BIG can get a bump simply by subtracting ISU from the major conference ranks.

Great point! Iowa only has enough room for one P5 program in the state. Wisconsin, Nebraska, Louisiana, Ohio, Minnesota all only have one, so why shouldn't Iowa?

 

[blowenthal]

PAC-12 not expanding at this time is official.

 

[His Hawkness]

PAC-12 not expanding at this time is official.

View embedded media

Woah! What is the Pac-12 thinking? Don't they know that ISU is more valuable than Texas and OK?

 

[blowenthal]

Woah! What is the Pac-12 thinking? Don't they know that ISU is more valuable than Texas and OK?

I know, right? Obviously they haven’t talked to some on this board. It’s like the PAC-12 is making financially-sound business decisions based on logic and reason. Who would’ve thought?!

 

[His Hawkness]

I know, right? Obviously they haven’t talked to some on this board. It’s like the PAC-12 is making financially-sound business decisions based on logic and reason. Who would’ve thought?!

Still can't believe that Wannstedt is going to be proven wrong about expansion. Crazy world we live in.

 

[blowenthal]

Still can't believe that Wannstedt is going to be proven wrong about expansion. Crazy world we live in.

I was told that Dave Wannstedt is the most sourced insider in the nation and that his words are gospel. I feel betrayed.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Time for the remaining B12 members to realize no one wants them and they should begin a full court press to add the best available G5 programs.

Those candidates seem to be: Houston, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, and BYU

 

[CyRail]

Great point! Iowa only has enough room for one P5 program in the state. Wisconsin, Nebraska, Louisiana, Ohio, Minnesota all only have one, so why shouldn't Iowa?

Well, according to everyone on this board, even if we did join the Big 10, we're such a trashy program that you'd have absolutely nothing to worry about.

So, why is this post even necessary?

 

[Dude McHawks]

Woah! What is the Pac-12 thinking? Don't they know that ISU is more valuable than Texas and OK?

But don't you know everybody already has backdoor deals with these highly valuable big 12 programs but are waiting till they get their trillions of settlement money from Texas and ESPN???

 

[MitchLL]

Time for the remaining B12 members to realize no one wants them and they should begin a full court press to add the best available G5 programs.

Those candidates seem to be: Houston, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, and BYU

Hard time seeing BYU interest in Big?12.

If they gather enough mid majors to join the Irate8, ISU can become a big dog.

 

[DavidGraeberBullSheetJobs]

Fast forward a few years and run those numbers with ISU relegated to mid-major status and Iowa as the only Power conference member in-state. Iowa will be that much more valuable of a property. Another reason for the BIG to not invite ISU. The BIG can get a bump simply by subtracting ISU from the major conference ranks.

Good point. These numbers from the WSJ are looking at status through 2019, from both program's good years, after Campbell's turnaround, and two years after that "historic" ISU victory versus Memphis.

ISU's revenues will almost be cut in half with a Leftover 8 conference, even if they add amazing schools with great national brands like UCF. I can't even name UCF's mascot or colors. And I didn't even know UCF existed until about 10 years ago.

 

[iafan44]

Well, according to everyone on this board, even if we did join the Big 10, we're such a trashy program that you'd have absolutely nothing to worry about.

So, why is this post even necessary?

You make alot of unnecessary posts.

 

[cidhawkeye]

But...but....but....but...our bowl game was down 19% in viewers from the previous bowl not in the championship series and our Big12 Championship game was down 67% from the previous year...........but...but....my computer spread sheet says none of that matters........

 

[MitchLL]

Fat Lady warming up backstage. The only question is 2023 or 2024?

ISU needs to go Independent because they're going to need 9 home games to stay afloat real soon.

I guess all doubt has been removed whether or not Wannstedt is full of shit.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

Well, according to everyone on this board, even if we did join the Big 10, we're such a trashy program that you'd have absolutely nothing to worry about.

So, why is this post even necessary?

Nice deflection. The thin sliver of hope of joining the Big 10 came to a crashing halt today. Now back to reality for clone fans where you get to try and salvage the Little 8 by trying to steal teams from the AAC and Mt West or join them.

 

[MitchLL]

West Virginia is gonna blow the Irate8 up as I think they'll bolt first.

 

[DavidGraeberBullSheetJobs]

Hard time seeing BYU interest in Big?12.

If they gather enough mid majors to join the Irate8, ISU can become a big dog.

Sure, the biggest chihuahua in the litter.

Every one of those possible candidates for the L12 doesn't move the needle much. ISU would still take a HUGE hit compared to leeching off of Texas and Oklahoma.

All of those candidates are valued by the WSJ ranked in the 60s or 70s, with revenues around one-fifth the Hawkeyes. We're talking ranked alongside programs like Temple and East Carolina (can't even remember what league they're in, AAC maybe?).

It's a German Shepherd vs. a Chihuahua going forward, Iowa vs. ISU. Once in a while the chihuahua will get at the big dog's throat, but everyone knows how things will shake out over the medium and long-run.

An expanded L12 would have as many teams as the B10, but would be collectively generating about ONE-FOURTH the revenue based on my quick math.

MWC and an expanded L12 would be much closer to the MAC or AAC than the B10. And as things go, the gap would only grow between the big boys like Iowa, and the ISU's and Toledo's and Memphis's and Bowling Green's of the world.

 

[His Hawkness]

West Virginia is gonna blow the Irate8 up as I think they'll bolt first.

Where to? Don't think the ACC takes them.

 

[Psyclone]

Where are you seeing $40 to $50 per team at? Last year during a COVID year they took in $54.3 and that was down from the previous year of $55.6. That isn't even close to being in the 40s. KU and ISU won't bring anything close to that every year and thus won't get invited.

If the Pac 12 doesn't scoop up any teams then no one will. Best case for the insignificant 8 is to scoop up Cincinnati and UCF. That is still a viable conference that should get $20 plus a year.

Again are you talking conference distributions, or the per team value of the media contract? One is a subset of the other.

And what I was referring to was the difference from the current media contract as I understand it to the $80 to $90 million per team that I was replying to. I think there is a lot of mixing up the media only dollars with total distributions, which includes NCAA tournament and bowl revenue among other things.

 

[M3 ME PLEASE]

Lol it’s cute that this is going to get ISU fans hopes up only to be disappointed yet again

Perpetual disappointment, the life of a cyclone fan

Lol never fails

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Every one of those possible candidates for the L12 doesn't move the needle much

Of course not, but they have to add at least a couple more schools to survive. They have to survive in order to collect their $$ from UT and OU. Plus those candidates will either gain them big media markets and/or fertile recruiting ground.

 

[His Hawkness]

Again are you talking conference distributions, or the per team value of the media contract? One is a subset of the other.

And what I was referring to was the difference from the current media contract as I understand it to the $80 to $90 million per team that I was replying to. I think there is a lot of mixing up the media only dollars with total distributions, which includes NCAA tournament and bowl revenue among other things.

Those are the media payouts per school. ISU would have to bring at least $55 million worth of media value in order to join the league otherwise the rest of the schools would have to subsidize ISU.

The reason Texas and OK left the Big 12 is because they were tired of having teams such as ISU holding them back. Why would the Big 10 then turnaround and take on these very same schools, which would only drive OSU and PSU away to the SEC? The Big 10 doesn't need to do anything. Their best move is to wait out the ACC GOR and pluck Virginia and UNC.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Those are the media payouts per school. ISU would have to bring at least $55 million worth of media value in order to join the league otherwise the rest of the schools would have to subsidize ISU.

The reason Texas and OK left the Big 12 is because they were tired of having teams such as ISU holding them back. Why would the Big 10 then turnaround and take on these very same schools, which would only drive OSU and PSU away to the SEC? The Big 10 doesn't need to do anything. Their best move is to wait out the ACC GOR and pluck Virginia and UNC.

Not to be the bearer of bad news, but that’s a payout if total revenue per school which includes media contracts.

B1G: $54M per school
Big 12: $38M per school, not counting third tier rights.

 

[Psyclone]

The good news is that this web site

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

does all of the magic for you. I realize that because it's not on 'your computer' you don't want to look at it. Or it could be that it doesn't support your premise.

The other good news is that since you caught me missing the * I went back and did the work for you. You being intellectually disingenuous doesn't surprise me. The numbers are pretty clear, the fact that it isn't on 'your computer' doesn't change the hard and fast actual numbers.

You missed more than an asterisk. You misstated the numbers.

And yes I have access to that website, but you can't do any analysis on it other than eyeball it. Putting in a database with pivot tables gives you all sorts of views into the data and can be very enlightening.

The biggest shocker to me was how dominant Ohio State is. In fact, everybody is talking about Oklahoma and Texas as being these major players. Turns out that Ohio State, Michigan and Northwestern all had higher average viewers in 2020 than Oklahoma. Those three and Wisconsin out drew Texas.

One caveat is that Ohio State played two games in the CFP which pulls down huge numbers and distorts the average. But even without those games their worst draw was 4.1 million against Michigan State. Throw out the two CFP games and they still top both leagues.

 

[MitchLL]

Where to? Don't think the ACC takes them.

I think they go Independent.

 

[DavidGraeberBullSheetJobs]

PAC-12 not expanding at this time is official.

View embedded media

Yep. As we knew it.

Door quietly, politely closed on Iowa State to any of the P4 conferences.

It's a new, much diminished reality for ISU sports now, conference likely to expand, but expanding downward. And it won't help their academic reputation either, no longer playing against and in a league with any big boys.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Where to? Don't think the ACC takes them.

To the AAC to join the teams they left when they were in the Big East

 

[Psyclone]

Those are the media payouts per school. ISU would have to bring at least $55 million worth of media value in order to join the league otherwise the rest of the schools would have to subsidize ISU.

The reason Texas and OK left the Big 12 is because they were tired of having teams such as ISU holding them back. Why would the Big 10 then turnaround and take on these very same schools, which would only drive OSU and PSU away to the SEC? The Big 10 doesn't need to do anything. Their best move is to wait out the ACC GOR and pluck Virginia and UNC.

The 2022 budget for Iowa shows $55 million as conference distributions.

The Big Ten is in the midst of a six-year, $2.64 billion media deal with CBS, FOX and ESPN that expires in 2023. That figures out to an average of $31.4 million per school per year.

You are mixing up the media deal with the total conference distributions.

 

[Lone Clone]

Of course not, but they have to add at least a couple more schools to survive. They have to survive in order to collect their $$ from UT and OU. Plus those candidates will either gain them big media markets and/or fertile recruiting ground.

That's basically the case, as I see it. The Pac-12 announcement -- and the assumption that the BiG and the ACC aren't going to expand now, either -- clarifies the picture for the Irate Eight. It is clearly in their interest to stay together as a conference. As long as they do, they have pretty big bucks coming from ESPN, UT and OU through 2025.

What's probably going to happen is the addition of two, maybe four, new members. The league won't have the big dog to give it a claim as a power conference, but it will be a pretty salty league. In other words, not on the level it is now, but a clear step above the MWC and AAC.

You know, it still surprises me that Texas jumped, given its traditional attitudes and its overwhelming desire to be the biggest frog in the pond.

 

[hawkfeever]

I guess Dave didn't really know anything.

 

[His Hawkness]

That's basically the case, as I see it. The Pac-12 announcement -- and the assumption that the BiG and the ACC aren't going to expand now, either -- clarifies the picture for the Irate Eight. It is clearly in their interest to stay together as a conference. As long as they do, they have pretty big bucks coming from ESPN, UT and OU through 2025.

What's probably going to happen is the addition of two, maybe four, new members. The league won't have the big dog to give it a claim as a power conference, but it will be a pretty salty league. In other words, not on the level it is now, but a clear step above the MWC and AAC.

You know, it still surprises me that Texas jumped, given its traditional attitudes and its overwhelming desire to be the biggest frog in the pond.

I agree with everything you said. ISU's and the Big 12's best chance for survival is to add a few teams like Cincy and UCF. They do that, then they are clearly a step above the likes of the AAC, MAC and Sunbelt and MWC but also clearly a step below a P5 conference. Still not the end of the world by any means.

 

[Psyclone]

You know, it still surprises me that Texas jumped, given its traditional attitudes and its overwhelming desire to be the biggest frog in the pond.

Wait and see if they work their destructive forces on the SEC. Although I blame ESPN and Oklahoma more. Oklahoma has always had wandering eyes, always looking for a better deal. Texas seemed rather content sitting on their nation leading pile of money. Do you suppose they lose the LHN out of this deal?

 

[MitchLL]

That's basically the case, as I see it. The Pac-12 announcement -- and the assumption that the BiG and the ACC aren't going to expand now, either -- clarifies the picture for the Irate Eight. It is clearly in their interest to stay together as a conference. As long as they do, they have pretty big bucks coming from ESPN, UT and OU through 2025.

What's probably going to happen is the addition of two, maybe four, new members. The league won't have the big dog to give it a claim as a power conference, but it will be a pretty salty league. In other words, not on the level it is now, but a clear step above the MWC and AAC.

You know, it still surprises me that Texas jumped, given its traditional attitudes and its overwhelming desire to be the biggest frog in the pond.

If I was an ISU fan, I sure hope Pollard is looking beyond the end of the payout.

The problem for the possible Irate8 expansion is no candidate really stands out.

Example...Houston is a mega market, but Texas and Ta/m likely have a strong foothold. Same with adding UCF...Miami and the Florida/FSU fan bases.

Fox/ESPN are aware of this and the TV contract offers will reflect that.

The Irate8 better squirrel away $$$ for the impending disaster of when the OU/T payout ends.

 

[hawkfeever]

If I was an ISU fan, I sure hope Pollard is looking beyond the end of the payout.

The problem for the possible Irate8 expansion is no candidate really stands out.

Example...Houston is a mega market, but Texas and Ta/m likely have a strong foothold. Same with adding UCF...Miami and the Florida/FSU fan bases.

Fox/ESPN are aware of this and the TV contract offers will reflect that.

The Irate8 better squirrel away $$$ for the impending disaster of when the OU/T payout ends.

Uncertainty will chase away coaches and recruits in the future.

 

[Lone Clone]

If I was an ISU fan, I sure hope Pollard is looking beyond the end of the payout.

The problem for the possible Irate8 expansion is no candidate really stands out.

Example...Houston is a mega market, but Texas and Ta/m likely have a strong foothold. Same with adding UCF...Miami and the Florida/FSU fan bases.

Fox/ESPN are aware of this and the TV contract offers will reflect that.

The Irate8 better squirrel away $$$ for the impending disaster of when the OU/T payout ends.

Pollard has been AD for 17 years. Before that he was top assistant at Wisconsin, and before that, at Maryland. He is a CPA. While his coaching hires haven't all been golden, his financial decisions have been excellent. All of which makes me believe he is looking ahead....and has been looking ahead since he was hired.

I would be very surprised if any AD doesn't devote some thought and planning to the various things that could happen, which in the case of a Big XII member, obviously includes yet another shakeup of membership. If I'm not sure of anything else, for instance, I am sure he knows exactly what ISU's position is vis-a-vis the BiG.

 

[His Hawkness]

I understand that ISU has to kick the tires on the Big 10, but I think the best thing for them is to realize that the Big 10 is never going to happen sooner rather than later. Then they can get moving on a more realistic plan going forward.

 

[Lone Clone]

If I was an ISU fan, I sure hope Pollard is looking beyond the end of the payout.

The problem for the possible Irate8 expansion is no candidate really stands out.

Example...Houston is a mega market, but Texas and Ta/m likely have a strong foothold. Same with adding UCF...Miami and the Florida/FSU fan bases.

Fox/ESPN are aware of this and the TV contract offers will reflect that.

The Irate8 better squirrel away $$$ for the impending disaster of when the OU/T payout ends.

Another problem with Houston is the question of whether TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor want another in-state rival......and for that matter, if the other five schools want another Texas school. I also question BYU, which is always mentioned. Good athletics programs and a big fan base, but geographically orphaned, and there's the question of whether the presidents of the other schools want to deal with protestors on various social issues every time the Cougars come to town.

If I were told I had to add two teams, I'd probably go with Cincinnati and Memphis. If you told me I had to add four, I'd pick those two, plus UCF and USF.

That assumes, of course, that Notre Dame turned me down

 

[His Hawkness]

Why didn't the Pac-12 want to add any Big 12 teams?​

Bruce Feldman, national college football insider: Assessing the value of any possible additions, particularly as it relates to Big 12 leftovers, Pac-12 ADs were skeptical at even the prospect of bringing in anyone from that league. All it would do is split their pie further while drawing few more eyeballs.
The feeling from power brokers connected to the Pac-12 is that any of the remaining Big 12 schools just do nothing from a ratings benefit to move the needle. The leftovers are seen primarily as meriting cable TV coverage, not network, which is a sizable financial distinction. They wouldn’t add any significant value but rather would only further water down the league while also being potentially different fits from the makeup of the Pac-12.



Gee, I wonder where we've heard this said before? Can't believe the Pac 12 ADs didn't look at the 2020 COVID data that Psyclone laid out.

 

[gojojo]

Bowlsby can still put together a pretty decent 14 team conference....

Get to work on the salesmanship and pull in Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, BYU and Boise St.

That'll be one big map and cause travel nightmares but that's a lot of TV sets for a Big14 network.

Sure, It doesn't have any blue blood appeal but those are some pretty good football programs right now and that's really the best outcome they can hope for at this point as I see it.