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Did we really just go for two when down 9?

It is better to remain silent rather than confirm your lack of knowledge on the science of game theory. All the probabilities of scoring a td and extra point go out the window if you fail at the two point conversion. Its called a Dependent probability. Future points are meaningless if you fail on the two point conversion because the game is already decided. If I use layman words for you, it means you stay in the game as long as you can when trying to catch the other team

The U of I offers a class on this. take it
agree. pouchy and parker need to take this class.
 
C'mon, pocha; you gonna take that? You've come this far, don't back away now.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

http://www.footballperspective.com/...are-foolish-to-not-go-for-2-after-touchdowns/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/amp/

https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/down-15-go-for-2/

I feel like I am in the middle of a psychology experiment. Some people's minds are simply brain washed into thinking that "you never chase points" and "you always extend the game". Even though if you stop to think about the situation for a few minutes you would realize that those old unwritten rules are bogus. I guess I had no idea how bad some people's brain washing was. I myself had never stopped to think critically about it until a few years ago, before that I just accepted what most people repeated. It's a slower process for some, but I have faith that some day Papa will figure it out. Although it doesn't appear to be any time soon.

I did get a good LOL out of the guy trying to say science was on his side though.
 
It is better to remain silent rather than confirm your lack of knowledge on the science of game theory. All the probabilities of scoring a td and extra point go out the window if you fail at the two point conversion. Its called a Dependent probability. Future points are meaningless if you fail on the two point conversion because the game is already decided. If I use layman words for you, it means you stay in the game as long as you can when trying to catch the other team

The U of I offers a class on this. take it

Oh please tell me more Mr. Einstein that can't even figure out the person to which he is responding. You mean to tell me that the probabilities go down if you don't get the two point conversion? Ya don't say! That's genius, did you come up with that all by yourself?

How about you try and figure out what this argument is all about and then come back and talk to me (or Papa), ok?
 
We were already in desperation mode and needed 2 either way. It didn't matter when we went for it.
New math? It does matter.

Down 15 before the first TD, you need at least a PAT after one and a 2 Pt. on the other to tie. Failing the 2 Pt after first leaves you down 9. There are no 9 point scores in football. Then need 2 more scores. Not enough time. End of story.
 
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

http://www.footballperspective.com/...are-foolish-to-not-go-for-2-after-touchdowns/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/amp/

https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/down-15-go-for-2/

I feel like I am in the middle of a psychology experiment. Some people's minds are simply brain washed into thinking that "you never chase points" and "you always extend the game". Even though if you stop to think about the situation for a few minutes you would realize that those old unwritten rules are bogus. I guess I had no idea how bad some people's brain washing was. I myself had never stopped to think critically about it until a few years ago, before that I just accepted what most people repeated. It's a slower process for some, but I have faith that some day Papa will figure it out. Although it doesn't appear to be any time soon.

I did get a good LOL out of the guy trying to say science was on his side though.
i did figure it out dude all i gotta say is one possession and 1:04.
 
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ts-throwing-football-unwritten-rules-nfl-2016

http://www.footballperspective.com/...are-foolish-to-not-go-for-2-after-touchdowns/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/amp/

https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/down-15-go-for-2/

I feel like I am in the middle of a psychology experiment. Some people's minds are simply brain washed into thinking that "you never chase points" and "you always extend the game". Even though if you stop to think about the situation for a few minutes you would realize that those old unwritten rules are bogus. I guess I had no idea how bad some people's brain washing was. I myself had never stopped to think critically about it until a few years ago, before that I just accepted what most people repeated. It's a slower process for some, but I have faith that some day Papa will figure it out. Although it doesn't appear to be any time soon.

I did get a good LOL out of the guy trying to say science was on his side though.
guess what pouchy , i am going to make your day. i can tell you are a little bummed out that everyone is making fun of you , very few posters think you are right and i mean very few. i am going to throw you a big bone. wait for it.... wait for it ..... i hope you are seated. i do understand what you are saying . yes you are right in that if we miss the first 2 pter and are down 9 that is 2 possessions . if we kick the first extra point and dont convert the 2nd 2 pter in all essence we made it a 2 possession scenario again . so everything you said is theoretically true . but in our minds you dont seem to understand all this has to be done in one minute and 4 seconds . this is why the majority of us want to make it an 8 point deficit so can tie the game with a 2 point conversion if we are lucky enough to score. truth be told since we missed the 2 point conversion and are down 9 there is no need to attempt a 2 pointer with another TD because it wont tie the game or give us the lead, doesnt make a difference if we are down 1 or 2 right? merry christmas pouchy
 
guess what pouchy , i am going to make your day. i can tell you are a little bummed out that everyone is making fun of you , very few posters think you are right and i mean very few. i am going to throw you a big bone. wait for it.... wait for it ..... i hope you are seated. i do understand what you are saying . yes you are right in that if we miss the first 2 pter and are down 9 that is 2 possessions . if we kick the first extra point and dont convert the 2nd 2 pter in all essence we made it a 2 possession scenario again . so everything you said is theoretically true . but in our minds you dont seem to understand all this has to be done in one minute and 4 seconds . this is why the majority of us want to make it an 8 point deficit so can tie the game with a 2 point conversion if we are lucky enough to score. truth be told since we missed the 2 point conversion and are down 9 there is no need to attempt a 2 pointer with another TD because it wont tie the game or give us the lead, doesnt make a difference if we are down 1 or 2 right? merry christmas pouchy

Hey I'm glad you understand my argument, although I'm not sure how you can still conclude that it doesn't matter. Obviously there was very little time left to overcome a failed two point conversion, but there was still more time left than there would have been if we had waited and failed to get the two. If we converted the two then it doesn't really matter when we attempted it, but not converting the two is better to have happened earlier rather than later. And I wouldn't say I am bummed, just disappointed that more people can't understand the argument to go for two when we did.
 
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