ADVERTISEMENT

Did we really just go for two when down 9?

but you do not increase the odds of winning doing things your way . your way means we have to recover 2 onside kicks to win . time is the biggest factor here and you wont acknowledge that .

Exactly! Time is the biggest factor. I'm totally acknowledging that. That's why you want to go for it early so that you have time to recover if you don't succeed. If you wait and don't succeed, there is no time left. Not sure how many times I can say that.

Both ways require two onside kicks to be converted if you don't get the two point conversion. Only my way allows for some extra time to get those two onside kicks. Both ways work equally well if the two point conversion is successful.
 
Pocha is obviously trolling.

Here is why you kick: the goal is to get to a 1 possession game, as odds are MUCH higher getting 1 score in 1:04 than 2 (not to mention having to recover 2 onside kicks instead of 1). Now, let's assume the odds of making a kicked XP is 90% and converting the 2 is 50% (I don't know what the actual odds are, but making the kick would be significantly higher than converting the 2).

Since the goal is to get to a 1 possession game, you kick because that gives you the higher probability of doing so. The "it is better to know you need 2 more possessions with a minute to go than with no time left" is not a valid argument, because it would be better to know you only need ONE possession with a minute to go, than 2. Since kicking the xp is about as automatic as you can get, then the decision that gives you the best odds of winning is to kick.

If there were several minutes left, then a case can be made for going for 2. But you have to take into account the situation. With only a minute left, you need to keep the number of possessions needed as low as possible.

It really isn't hard. That is why the VAST majority of coaches (you know, the EXPERTS), kick. Time is your enemy, you don't have the luxury of taking unnecessary chances. You take the practically "sure" route of needing only 1 possession, instead of taking the much riskier approach and leaving you with a higher possibility of needing two.
 
Last edited:
I’m not sure why such an insignificant decision resulted in an 8 page thread. There are possibly 5,000,000 coaching decisions that were made throughout the week that had a larger impact on the outcome of this game.

The odds of winning, whenever you go for two, are almost nil. And the decision to go for 2 after TD #1, or a possible TD #2, has an insignificant impact (either direction) on your odds to win the game.

It was a decision that isn’t mainstream, but that doesn’t make it impactful in any way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HKI
Who said they were assuming the 2 point would fail. It is the aggressive call. Question for me...was that really the best play they had in their pocket for that moment of the game? If the play is right and the 2 pt conversion is good then momentum is even stronger. Crazy thing is...I'm in the kick camp but can't believe h
no it was not the best play Stanley missed a wide open vandeburg running across the middle of the field.
Who said they were assuming the 2 point would fail. It is the aggressive call. Question for me...was that really the best play they had in their pocket for that moment of the game? If the play is right and the 2 pt conversion is good then momentum is even stronger. Crazy thing is...I'm in the kick camp but can't believe h
 
Pocha is obviously trolling.

Here is why you kick: the goal is to get to a 1 possession game, as odds are MUCH higher getting 1 score in 1:04 than 2 (not to mention having to recover 2 onside kicks instead of 1). Now, let's assume the odds of making a kicked XP is 90% and converting the 2 is 50% (I don't know what the actual odds are, but making the kick would be significantly higher than converting the 2).

Since the goal is to get to a 1 possession game, you kick because that gives you the higher probability of doing so. The "it is better to know you need 2 more possessions with a minute to go than with no time left" is not a valid argument, because it would be better to know you only need ONE possession with a minute to go, than 2. Since kicking the xp is about as automatic as you can get, then the decision that gives you the best odds of winning is to kick.
he will not listen to reason. he does not understand there was only 1:04 left in the game.
If there were several minutes left, then a case can be made for going for 2. But you have to take into account the situation. With only a minute left, you need to keep the number of possessions needed as low as possible.

It really isn't hard. That is why the VAST majority of coaches (you know, the EXPERTS), kick. Time is your enemy, you don't have the luxury of taking unnecessary chances. You take the practically "sure" route of needing only 1 possession, instead of taking the much riskier approach and leaving you with a higher possibility of needing two.
 
Exactly! Time is the biggest factor. I'm totally acknowledging that. That's why you want to go for it early so that you have time to recover if you don't succeed. If you wait and don't succeed, there is no time left. Not sure how many times I can say that.

Both ways require two onside kicks to be converted if you don't get the two point conversion. Only my way allows for some extra time to get those two onside kicks. Both ways work equally well if the two point conversion is successful.
You were already out of time to do it your way. The clock made the decision for you when it said 1:04. You have to make it a one possession game there and the higher chance to do that is to kick the extra point.
 
Okay. This must confuse every other coach in the land as well. If Iowa recovers the onside kick do you think Purdue plays the same defense if they were up 9 vs. 8? I'm convinced Neil Cornrich has paid posters on this board to support his client.
no they do not.
 
I’m not sure why such an insignificant decision resulted in an 8 page thread. There are possibly 5,000,000 coaching decisions that were made throughout the week that had a larger impact on the outcome of this game.

The odds of winning, whenever you go for two, are almost nil. And the decision to go for 2 after TD #1, or a possible TD #2, has an insignificant impact (either direction) on your odds to win the game.

It was a decision that isn’t mainstream, but that doesn’t make it impactful in any way.
Hard to say it didn't have a significant impact when you don't know how the results would have played out had they made the other decision.
 
I'm not sure I would have gone for it there, but here is the argument for going for it.

You need 2 at somepoint nomatter what. So you go for it early in this case. Then if you get it you're down 7. If you don't get it, you're down 9 and you still theoretically (although highly unlikely) have time for two onsides kicks.

Contrast that with taking the extra point and being down 8. Then you get the onsides kick and use up all the clock on your next possession, not knowing if you will be able to convert the 2. So you will have no time for a second onsides kick.

Basically, going for 2 sooner tells you what you need to tie the game earlier and allows you adjust accordingly.

This. It is math vs. emotion vs. risk vs. reward. The only right answer is the one that works.
 
Hard to say it didn't have a significant impact when you don't know how the results would have played out had they made the other decision.

I know they failed the 2 point conversion miserably, and also failed the onside kick miserably. I don’t think it is any kind of logical leap to assume they’d have failed at least one of the two (if they ever even got back in the end zone), regardless of the timing of the 2-pt attempt.

The coaching decision was about as close to zero impact as any decision made Saturday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HKI
You were already out of time to do it your way. The clock made the decision for you when it said 1:04. You have to make it a one possession game there and the higher chance to do that is to kick the extra point.

You wait until the last touchdown to get the 2 point conversion, then Purdue knows you have to get it then. So, calling it earlier like was done here might have been a better call. But I think what might have been better after the first touchdown is to fake the extra point kick and get the two point conversion then rather than a straight go for two call. You have the element of surprise of Purdue not knowing which you are going to go for at that point (1 point or 2), so they have to take a 1 point conversion try seriously, which could let the fake work more effectively. If you just kick the extra point on the first touchdown and wait until the last to go for two, Purdue then knows when you are going for the two then.
 
I know they failed the 2 point conversion miserably, and also failed the onside kick miserably. I don’t think it is any kind of logical leap to assume they’d have failed at least one of the two (if they ever even got back in the end zone), regardless of the timing of the 2-pt attempt.

The coaching decision was about as close to zero impact as any decision made Saturday.
Obviously there are a lot of decisions that are made throughout a game that impact the result. I don't think you can just push this bad decision aside because there were other important decisions that also helped decide the outcome. I also think that the onside kick might have gone differently if the game hadn't already been decided because of our coaching staff's inexcusable decision. Ultimately we will never know.
 
You wait until the last touchdown to get the 2 point conversion, then Purdue knows you have to get it then. So, calling it earlier like was done here might have been a better call. But I think what might have been better after the first touchdown is to fake the extra point kick and get the two point conversion then rather than a straight go for two call. You have the element of surprise of Purdue not knowing which you are going to go for at that point (1 point or 2), so they have to take a 1 point conversion try seriously, which could let the fake work more effectively. If you just kick the extra point on the first touchdown and wait until the last to go for two, Purdue then knows when you are going for the two then.
Unless Purdue's coach is named Kirk Ferentz they would have played as if we were going for 2 even if we brought the extra point unit out. Their main goal after either score would be to prevent a 2 point conversion.
 
Doesn't matter when you get it. You just have to get one. Your odds don't improve on making a 2 pt conversion just because you kick a PAT after the first one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hwk23
Doesn't matter when you get it. You just have to get one. Your odds don't improve on making a 2 pt conversion just because you kick a PAT after the first one.
At the least it makes the onside kick team of Purdue have some pressure to recover. By not kicking the extra point, they know it basically doesn't even matter if they get it or not
 
  • Like
Reactions: m.stoops2013
despite peoples' feelings the smart play down 15 in the 4th is to go for two after the first score. However, with that little time left, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. The chances of winning the game were extremely small. The Vandeberg punt return fiasco ended the game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pocha444444 and HKI
despite peoples' feelings the smart play down 15 in the 4th is to go for two after the first score. However, with that little time left, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. The chances of winning the game were extremely small. The Vandeberg punt return fiasco ended the game.

For as bad as so many things were this game, special teams is the unit that lost it, not the offense and certainly not the defense. Good point. Either of those units could have made up for the ST disaster day, but did not. But take away the punting and returning, lack thereof, and the fanbase isn't in hysterics.
 
Doesn't matter when you get it. You just have to get one. Your odds don't improve on making a 2 pt conversion just because you kick a PAT after the first one.
Except there's no possible way to know if your odds improve, stay the same, or decrease if you never get there. Conditions are constantly changing. There's also no way to know how fast Iowa could score a TD after an onside kick recovery, so if the 2pt conversion doesn't work there could be 40 seconds left rather than 3 or zero mentioned multiple times in this thread.
Instead of keeping the possibility to win open, people are just assuming the same result.
 
How fun would this thread be if we had actually recovered the onside kick and went down and scored???!!! I can't imagine!!!
Wow! I never even considered that?

This 300+ post thread would be doubled, and the entire college football world would be wondering what the he*l KF was thinking.

I bet the entire time the onside was happening Kirk was thinking "please don't recover, please don't recover"
 
  • Like
Reactions: m.stoops2013
despite peoples' feelings the smart play down 15 in the 4th is to go for two after the first score. However, with that little time left, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. The chances of winning the game were extremely small. The Vandeberg punt return fiasco ended the game.
Yeah, you're right.......down 15, we should have just been taking a knee to run out the clock. (Sarcasm)
 
  • Like
Reactions: m.stoops2013
I’m not sure why such an insignificant decision resulted in an 8 page thread. There are possibly 5,000,000 coaching decisions that were made throughout the week that had a larger impact on the outcome of this game.

The odds of winning, whenever you go for two, are almost nil. And the decision to go for 2 after TD #1, or a possible TD #2, has an insignificant impact (either direction) on your odds to win the game.

It was a decision that isn’t mainstream, but that doesn’t make it impactful in any way.
wrong
 
despite peoples' feelings the smart play down 15 in the 4th is to go for two after the first score. However, with that little time left, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. The chances of winning the game were extremely small. The Vandeberg punt return fiasco ended the game.
you are as dumb as pouchy. you kick the extra point to make it a one possession game . 8 points is one poss. 9 points is 2 poss. not rocket science. if you miss the 2 pointer on the second touchdown you are probably out of time but at least you put yourself in a position to extend the game.
 
I’m not sure why such an insignificant decision resulted in an 8 page thread. There are possibly 5,000,000 coaching decisions that were made throughout the week that had a larger impact on the outcome of this game.

The odds of winning, whenever you go for two, are almost nil. And the decision to go for 2 after TD #1, or a possible TD #2, has an insignificant impact (either direction) on your odds to win the game.

It was a decision that isn’t mainstream, but that doesn’t make it impactful in any way.
IF YOU MISS on The first 2pt try THE GAME IS OVER..............OMG
 
Doesn't matter when you get it. You just have to get one. Your odds don't improve on making a 2 pt conversion just because you kick a PAT after the first one.
ok ,sssooo what you are saying is if we miss the 2pointer on the first TD but make a 2 pointer on the second one everything is good and we have tied the game right? ooohhh but wait a minute we are still down a point .
 
Argument for a two point conversion: It mathematically and undeniably increases your odds of winning. If you can't see that after eight pages (pocha has done a good job of explaining it), then your brain is simply not capable of grasping what should be pretty basic statistical probabilities. And that's okay; if everyone were good at math and reasoning, the world would be a much less interesting place.

Arguments against a two point conversion:
(1) You "extend the game" by kicking an extra point. No, you don't. A game is 60 minutes. Down 15 with a few minutes remaining, YOU WILL NEED A TWO POINT CONVERSION AT SOME POINT, NO MATTER WHAT, and your odds of converting do not change based on when you elect to go for two. If you kick the extra point with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you go for two with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you kick the extra point with 0 left, there's 0 left. If you go for two with 0 left, there's 0 left. Pocha played out the scenarios for you. It doesn't matter when you go for two if you're successful. However, if you're unsuccessful, you would rather be unsuccessful with two to three minutes left than with no time left.

(2) "90% of coaches go for the extra point." Show me proof. And either way, I don't care. That's not a logical argument. Give me an actual reason, other than "but, but, but, all the cool kids are doing it!!!" Explain to me why the cool kids are doing it. I'll wait. (Edit: I thought about this some more last night, because in my personal experience, coaches often do kick the extra point, despite it giving their team a statistical lower chance of winning. That's never made sense to me. Then I realized that this thread is the reason why coaches kick the extra point: they realize that (1) going for two only increases their chances of winning by a very small percent [maybe 1/4%?], and (2) if they go for two on the first possession but fail, a surprisingly large number of uninformed fans will blame the coach, at least in part, for the loss. The safe bet for a coach looking to avoid fan criticism is to kick the extra point and therefore turn the focus back to the team for the last minutes of the game. If the team doesn't convert the two point conversion with two seconds left, fans will leave somewhat content knowing that at least the team came close. In other words, it's actually a very cowardly but understandable move for coaches to kick the extra point: it's cowardly because it decreases their team's chances of winning, but it's understandable because it avoids irrational fan criticism.).

(3) "Momentum is important." How much momentum will we have when we kick the extra point, recover the onside kick, drive the field, score, then FAIL to convert the two point conversion with 2 seconds remaining? The answer is ZERO. We will have ZERO momentum at that point, because we will have LOST THE FU**ING GAME as a result of our coach failing to put is in a position where our offense could manage the clock based on the need for two scores. The fans will shuffle out completely momentumless. Alternatively, what if we go for two early, fail, recover the onside kick, then Wadley busts a screen for a touchdown on the first play? Now we're looking at a two point game with maybe 1:15 to play. That's a boatload of momentum at that point, and it's the only scenario where we can potentially recover from failing to convert a REQUIRED two point conversion.

(4) "You've obviously never played football." You're obviously a fu**ing idiot.
 
Last edited:
Argument for a two point conversion: It mathematically and undeniably increases your odds of winning. If you can't see that after eight pages (pocha has done a good job of explaining it), then your brain is simply not capable of grasping what should be pretty basic statistical probabilities. And that's okay; if everyone were good at math and reasoning, the world would be a much less interesting place.

Arguments against a two point conversion:
(1) You "extend the game" by kicking an extra point. No, you don't. A game is 60 minutes. Down 15 with a few minutes remaining, YOU WILL NEED A TWO POINT CONVERSION AT SOME POINT, NO MATTER WHAT, and your odds of converting do not change based on when you elect to go for two. If you kick the extra point with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you go for two with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you kick the extra point with 0 left, there's 0 left. If you go for two with 0 left, there's 0 left. Pocha played out the scenarios for you. It doesn't matter when you go for two if you're successful. However, if you're unsuccessful, you would rather be unsuccessful with two to three minutes left than with no time left.

(2) "90% of coaches go for the extra point." Show me proof. And either way, I don't care. That's not a logical argument. Give me an actual reason, other than "but, but, but, all the cool kids are doing it!!!" Explain to me why the cool kids are doing it. I'll wait.

(3) "Momentum is important." How much momentum will we have when we kick the extra point, recover the onside kick, drive the field, score, then FAIL to convert the two point conversion with 2 seconds remaining? The answer is ZERO. We will have ZERO momentum at that point, because we will have LOST THE FU**ING GAME as a result of our coach failing to put is in a position where our offense could manage the clock based on the need for two scores. The fans will shuffle out completely momentumless. Alternatively, what if we go for two early, fail, recover the onside kick, then Wadley busts a screen for a touchdown on the first play? Now we're looking at a two point game with maybe 1:15 to play. That's a boatload of momentum at that point, and it's the only scenario where we can potentially recover from failing to convert a REQUIRED two point conversion.

(4) "You've obviously never played football." You're obviously a fu**ing idiot.
the problem mr. lack of common sense is that by missing the 2 pter when we did we were MOMENTUMLESS at that moment. in 1:04 ( not sure where you are coming up with 2:05 at) we are down 9 NINE and will need to recover 2 TWO onside kicks. do the players really bust their asses trying to recover the first one knowing they have to do it again if we score ? please both you tards need to quit talking about 2or 3 minutes left , there was only 1:04 left after stanley threw the TD pass and we had 2 timeouts left. you 2 keep brining up the odds of success , the ODDS have nothing to do with it . you 2 seem to be to stupid to understand that we were down 9 with 1:04 left to play
 
  • Like
Reactions: VodkaSam
you are as dumb as pouchy. you kick the extra point to make it a one possession game . 8 points is one poss. 9 points is 2 poss. not rocket science. if you miss the 2 pointer on the second touchdown you are probably out of time but at least you put yourself in a position to extend the game.
No
 
despite peoples' feelings the smart play down 15 in the 4th is to go for two after the first score. However, with that little time left, it wouldn't have mattered anyway. The chances of winning the game were extremely small. The Vandeberg punt return fiasco ended the game.

I can't believe you think that. I usually read your posts and say "that dude gets it"...
 
Argument for a two point conversion: It mathematically and undeniably increases your odds of winning. If you can't see that after eight pages (pocha has done a good job of explaining it), then your brain is simply not capable of grasping what should be pretty basic statistical probabilities. And that's okay; if everyone were good at math and reasoning, the world would be a much less interesting place.

Arguments against a two point conversion:
(1) You "extend the game" by kicking an extra point. No, you don't. A game is 60 minutes. Down 15 with a few minutes remaining, YOU WILL NEED A TWO POINT CONVERSION AT SOME POINT, NO MATTER WHAT, and your odds of converting do not change based on when you elect to go for two. If you kick the extra point with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you go for two with 2:05 left, there's 2:05 left. If you kick the extra point with 0 left, there's 0 left. If you go for two with 0 left, there's 0 left. Pocha played out the scenarios for you. It doesn't matter when you go for two if you're successful. However, if you're unsuccessful, you would rather be unsuccessful with two to three minutes left than with no time left.

(2) "90% of coaches go for the extra point." Show me proof. And either way, I don't care. That's not a logical argument. Give me an actual reason, other than "but, but, but, all the cool kids are doing it!!!" Explain to me why the cool kids are doing it. I'll wait. (Edit: I thought about this some more last night, because in my personal experience, coaches often do kick the extra point, despite it giving their team a statistical lower chance of winning. That's never made sense to me. Then I realized that this thread is the reason why coaches kick the extra point: they realize that (1) going for two only increases their chances of winning by a very small percent [maybe 1/4%?], and (2) if they go for two on the first possession but fail, a surprisingly large number of uninformed fans will blame the coach, at least in part, for the loss. The safe bet for a coach looking to avoid fan criticism is to kick the extra point and therefore turn the focus back to the team for the last minutes of the game. If the team doesn't convert the two point conversion with two seconds left, fans will leave somewhat content knowing that at least the team came close. In other words, it's actually a very cowardly but understandable move for coaches to kick the extra point: it's cowardly because it decreases their team's chances of winning, but it's understandable because it avoids irrational fan criticism.).

(3) "Momentum is important." How much momentum will we have when we kick the extra point, recover the onside kick, drive the field, score, then FAIL to convert the two point conversion with 2 seconds remaining? The answer is ZERO. We will have ZERO momentum at that point, because we will have LOST THE FU**ING GAME as a result of our coach failing to put is in a position where our offense could manage the clock based on the need for two scores. The fans will shuffle out completely momentumless. Alternatively, what if we go for two early, fail, recover the onside kick, then Wadley busts a screen for a touchdown on the first play? Now we're looking at a two point game with maybe 1:15 to play. That's a boatload of momentum at that point, and it's the only scenario where we can potentially recover from failing to convert a REQUIRED two point conversion.

(4) "You've obviously never played football." You're obviously a fu**ing idiot.

The cmhawks99 is strong in this one.
 
You have to look at the probabilities and take feeling out of it. The reason people think you should wait to go for two is because it feels like the game was closer when in reality it just delays the loss of hope. Winning or tying a game down 15 that late in the game is extremely unlikely. You have the same odds of making a 2 pt conversion either time. In general the odds of getting a 2 point conversion are slightly less than 50%. With this Iowa offense I would say the odds of converting are about 25%.
In other words being down 15 is essentially more than a 2 score game.
The reason you go first is that if you miss it, you know you have to get a TD and a Field goal. Whereas typically teams that kick the PAT will play the game as if they for sure will get the 2 pt on the second time, leaving them no time for an additional score.

Now, as I said the odds of winning or tying the game at that point were approaching zero. So it really didn’t matter if you kicked or went for 2. There just wasn’t time left.

In addition, momentum is not real. It’s like the hot hand myth. Or the eye test.
 
  • Like
Reactions: parker01
You have to look at the probabilities and take feeling out of it. The reason people think you should wait to go for two is because it feels like the game was closer when in reality it just delays the loss of hope. Winning or tying a game down 15 that late in the game is extremely unlikely. You have the same odds of making a 2 pt conversion either time. In general the odds of getting a 2 point conversion are slightly less than 50%. With this Iowa offense I would say the odds of converting are about 25%.
In other words being down 15 is essentially more than a 2 score game.
The reason you go first is that if you miss it, you know you have to get a TD and a Field goal. Whereas typically teams that kick the PAT will play the game as if they for sure will get the 2 pt on the second time, leaving them no time for an additional score.

Now, as I said the odds of winning or tying the game at that point were approaching zero. So it really didn’t matter if you kicked or went for 2. There just wasn’t time left.

In addition, momentum is not real. It’s like the hot hand myth. Or the eye test.
Ok got it. Momentum and emotions don't matter in a football game with a bunch of 18-23 year old kids. Makes perfect sense.

You kick the extra point because you know you don't have time for 2 more possessions and you need to make it a one possession game. This really isn't hard at all.
 
Ok got it. Momentum and emotions don't matter in a football game with a bunch of 18-23 year old kids. Makes perfect sense.

You kick the extra point because you know you don't have time for 2 more possessions and you need to make it a one possession game. This really isn't hard at all.

No statistics have shown momentum is not real.

Again. It’s not a one possession game. If you kick the PAT it is still a 1.5 possession game. And again the odds of making a 2 pt conversion don’t change. Show me anything that proves your point.
 
Fans cling to hope. Kicking the PAT allows hope to remain a while longer. That’s why people on here who just go with feeling argue for the PAT first.

In reality, at that point in the game it really doesn’t matter if you go for 2 or kick the PAT. The odds don’t improve of winning either way bc it is still probably over 99% you will lose. As I said, the chances of winning that game pretty much the ended when VandeBerg f’d up on punt return.
 
No statistics have shown momentum is not real.

Again. It’s not a one possession game. If you kick the PAT it is still a 1.5 possession game. And again the odds of making a 2 pt conversion don’t change. Show me anything that proves your point.
Show me how statistics have shown momentum and emotion are not real. Statistics and data are why people suggested drafting Mitchell Trubisky over Deshaun Watson, when in reality if you just use your eyes it should have been a no brainer.

I don't need to show you anything if you just apply some logic to the situation. There is a reason that 99.9% of coaches kick the PAT there and it isn't because they don't want to upset the fans. If you watched the Saints - Redskins NFL game you saw this exact scenario play out and the Saints kicked the PAT and eventually won the game in overtime.

Look at the scoring summary in the link below. The Saints even had more time after scoring the first touchdown to put them down by 9 than Iowa did.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400951780

You don't effectively end the game earlier than you have to when you are the losing team. You only had time for one more possession so you need to ensure that you make it a one possession game by kicking the PAT. (It would not have been a 1.5 possession game because it only takes one possession to score 8 points.)
 
Show me how statistics have shown momentum and emotion are not real. Statistics and data are why people suggested drafting Mitchell Trubisky over Deshaun Watson, when in reality if you just use your eyes it should have been a no brainer.

I don't need to show you anything if you just apply some logic to the situation. There is a reason that 99.9% of coaches kick the PAT there and it isn't because they don't want to upset the fans. If you watched the Saints - Redskins NFL game you saw this exact scenario play out and the Saints kicked the PAT and eventually won the game in overtime.

Look at the scoring summary in the link below. The Saints even had more time after scoring the first touchdown to put them down by 9 than Iowa did.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400951780

You don't effectively end the game earlier than you have to when you are the losing team. You only had time for one more possession so you need to ensure that you make it a one possession game by kicking the PAT. (It would not have been a 1.5 possession game because it only takes one possession to score 8 points.)
#wrong

There is data upon data that show momentum isn’t real. I don’t wa t to go through and link all the studies.

You are talking about two different things- drafting players which isn’t a science to probabilities which is purely math.

You don’t seem to understand how these things work so It will make no difference telling you that 8 points isn’t statisically a one possession game. I am glad you would feel better if they kicked the PAT and extended your hope of tying the game but it doesn’t change the probabilities.
 
#wrong

There is data upon data that show momentum isn’t real. I don’t wa t to go through and link all the studies.

You are talking about two different things- drafting players which isn’t a science to probabilities which is purely math.

You don’t seem to understand how these things work so It will make no difference telling you that 8 points isn’t statisically a one possession game. I am glad you would feel better if they kicked the PAT and extended your hope of tying the game but it doesn’t change the probabilities.
So why even play the games if probabilities and math are the only things that matter? The results of the games can purely be decided based off of probabilities. Sounds like fun!

I understand that making a two point conversion is harder than making a PAT which makes you think that an 8 point game is a 1.5 possession game. However, the fact that you only need one possession to score 8 points is why I think it is a one possession game.

Seriously go take a look at the Saints-Redskins game and how this exact scenario played out. Sometimes numbers can't tell you everything because people aren't machines and feel pressure and emotion and yes... even momentum.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VodkaSam
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT