I will bet a nickel that Joes Place will continue to bombard us with dozens of Twitter links per day.
Go on the record here about the Coronavirus
- Thread starter FAUlty Gator
- Start date
Yup. A big addition today.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...e_doomsday_media_predictions_or_analysis.html
White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Deborah Birx warned the public not to panic when they hear about models and projections of the pandemic's spread.
"Models are models," she said. "When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."
She said the media should not "make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there, or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that."
"It's our job collectively to assure the American people," she also said. "There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that."
DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I'm sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.
I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.
So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don't match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.
Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience.
And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant -- over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.
Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that.
It's our job collectively to assure the American people, it's our job to make sure that doesn't happen. You can see the cases are concentrated in highly urban areas and there are other parts of the states that have lots of ventilators and other parts of New York state that don't have any infected. We can meet the needs by being responsive.
There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that. We are adapting to the reality on the ground and looking at the models of how they can inform but learning from South Korea and Italy and from Spain and I know you will look up my numbers.
hawkeyetraveler
HR Heisman
Bumping this thread to check in on our predictions just over a month later. Mine are unfortunately mostly in line. I wish I was wrong. Supply shortages, some overwhelmed hospitals and there are indeed EU countries with lower CFRs than ours.
How are your predictions faring? Have you changed your mind over the past month?
How are your predictions faring? Have you changed your mind over the past month?
I’m in the camp where it’s better to be safe than sorry. If this falls way short of the “millions dead” models used previously, then great. A bonus.
we’re still learning about this virus and I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that we were operating on faulty information early on. I don’t think China has been 100% truthful either but we’ll learn from this and move on.
we’re still learning about this virus and I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that we were operating on faulty information early on. I don’t think China has been 100% truthful either but we’ll learn from this and move on.
You're more optimistic on that than I am. We tend to have short-term memories in this country, and revert back to the same Red/Blue game. You really think we can get agreement on a national infrastructure for this, that is independent of political meddling and propaganda?
I have a low tolerance for the red/blue game and have a low opinion people who prefer politics over results. I’ll say this though, our national news media isn’t much help during times like this.
I'm still not worried about myself getting it, but it spread to a greater degree than I guessed.
I haven't died, so I got that parenthesis part wrong.
Wow at this thread. This post on 2/29 was amongst the worst of the first responses. Pure neglect.
How many of you had:
- >1,000,000 US cases by end of April
- >60,000 US deaths by end of April
- US leading the world in both cases and deaths, with >30% of worldwide cases and >25% of worldwide deaths
- 26 million jobs lost
- Economic contraction on the order of 5-10%
...just been one big ol' Nothingburger.
you cannot possibly say any of this, fake news and fake stats. tests which are not accurate. reporting of deaths by old age and cancer as covid deaths. jobs and economics may or may not be accurate. basically we know less now than we did in February.
- 1,0950,000 US cases by end of April
- >63,000 US deaths by end of April
- US leading the world in both cases and deaths, with >30% of worldwide cases and >25% of worldwide deaths
- 30 million jobs lost
- Economic contraction on the order of 5-10%
Damn. We really had some folks missing the boat on this one, didn't we?
Seems like few, if any, want to come back and revisit.
Please post the real stats, OiT. I’m sick of listening to medical experts telling us what to think. Anyone that went to school for that long is just brainwashed and has been drinking too much of that water that’s turning all the frogs gay!
Bump for my BINGO as my US C-19 death toll prediction of 1 million approaches. Hopefully we won't exceed this total by too much before C-19 becomes an afterthought to us here.
It's hard to know if my predicted global deaths number of 40 million is wildly overstated or not. Am I really supposed to believe that only 4,636 C-19 deaths in China alone? GTFO of here with that data. How many other countries are wildly underreported as well? Based on the # dead in the US the worldwide total should currently be ~27 million. Maybe I'm not that far off at all, but we're not out of this yet unfortunately.
US COVID fatalities are around 1.8% based on worldometer data (984K deaths out of 56M cases). That's for the whole pandemic, not the current rate. That's a little higher than the long-term projections earlier in the pandemic (which bounced around 1.4%), but in the ballpark.
I sure am glad this thing is winding down. Let's hope another bad variant doesn't hit us.
I'd feel a lot better if we were aggressively planning for and working to prevent future pandemics, but I doubt Republicans will agree to do that. Might interfere with tax cuts for the rich.
