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Hawkeye Women’s BBall Season 2021-2022

LOL Indiana WBB related.


I saw some Indiana fans calling their all time leading scorer a traitor and got curious.
 
Don't give up hope yet for Iowa to finish in the top four in the end. The final standings are going to be hugely impacted by postponed games by the other leaders that will never be made up against bottom feeders. See below. They will be short wins they should have had, compared to Iowa and Ohio State who will get all 18 games in.

MD - at IL
IN - at RU and vs IL
MI - at IL

I think Iowa can sweep Indiana, which is running on fumes, and take care of business at Rutgers. The final home game with Michigan will be critical. One game at a time, I know, but think positive.
I will add to my unbridled optimism since so far so good. Beating Indiana again tomorrow here, then beating a bad Rutgers team there on Thursday would probably lock up a top-four finish for Iowa. Beating the best team in the conference now Michigan here in the final game would be a tall order. However, IF Iowa wins out, they can finish as co-champions at 14-4 with Ohio State. The Buckeyes have three easy wins left. Step one taken care of yesterday.

My prediction is Michigan will win the conference for the first time at 14-3. Ohio State will finish second at 14-4. Maryland drops to third at 13-4. Then Iowa fourth at 13-5 and Indiana fifth at 11-5.
 
I will add to my unbridled optimism since so far so good. Beating Indiana again tomorrow here, then beating a bad Rutgers team there on Thursday would probably lock up a top-four finish for Iowa. Beating the best team in the conference now Michigan here in the final game would be a tall order. However, IF Iowa wins out, they can finish as co-champions at 14-4 with Ohio State. The Buckeyes have three easy wins left. Step one taken care of yesterday.

My prediction is Michigan will win the conference for the first time at 14-3. Ohio State will finish second at 14-4. Maryland drops to third at 13-4. Then Iowa fourth at 13-5 and Indiana fifth at 11-5.
I could see Ohio State losing one of its final two games. Penn State just beat Nebraska, though Ohio State is still a heavy favorite in that one. Michigan State just beat Michigan at home, though, and desperately needs big wins to make the NCAA Tournament. Plus Ohio State hasn't been unbeatable recently.

Obviously Iowa winning the conference outright is extremely unlikely, but that it only takes Iowa winning out and Ohio State losing once is still incredible.
 
I could see Ohio State losing one of its final two games. Penn State just beat Nebraska, though Ohio State is still a heavy favorite in that one. Michigan State just beat Michigan at home, though, and desperately needs big wins to make the NCAA Tournament. Plus Ohio State hasn't been unbeatable recently.

Obviously Iowa winning the conference outright is extremely unlikely, but that it only takes Iowa winning out and Ohio State losing once is still incredible.
Maryland also needs to lost at home to Indiana to have more losses than Iowa.

Iowa should come out and take a 30-point lead against Indiana this time so that Indiana realizes they should be strategic and just take it easy on the Iowa game to conserve energy and make it or break it against Maryland instead:)
 
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Maryland also needs to lost at home to Indiana to have more losses than Iowa.

Iowa should come out and take a 30-point lead against Indiana this time so that Indiana realizes they should be strategic and just take it easy on the Iowa game to conserve energy and make it or break it against Maryland instead:)
In this crazy year I am pretty sure it would come down to percentage, not number of losses. So Maryland would be screwed if they finish 13-4 and Iowa 14-4. Never being able to make up their postponed game with Illinois would cost them a win and a league co-championship. Not likely but fun to dream.
 
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Crossing my fingers that no one transfers 🤞

With Monica coming back, I would hope that Bluder goes back to the 2 post offense (at least some of the time) she used in the past. Addy O, and Sharon G are deserving of more than 5-10 minutes. Aj Edinger also needs minutes.
 
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Maryland also needs to lost at home to Indiana to have more losses than Iowa.

Iowa should come out and take a 30-point lead against Indiana this time so that Indiana realizes they should be strategic and just take it easy on the Iowa game to conserve energy and make it or break it against Maryland instead:)
As mphawk said, we can't actually tie with Maryland because they will only play 17 conference games. So all we need to do is win out to beat Maryland in the standings. We would also beat them in the standings if we lose once and they do too.
 
After watching the first half of this Indiana game all I can say is we need another point guard worse than we need Monika coming back.
 
Caitlin Clark gets an intentional foul call for an incidental elbow. Really bad call.

60-55 Clark will shoot one for the and 1. Then Indiana will shoot.
 
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End of Third Quarter

Indiana 66 Iowa 62

Clark (25), Czinano (18) and Warnock (11)
Going to need a late push to win this.
 
Below are the teams ahead of Iowa in ESPN’s last Bracketology projection. That was done Friday, so before Iowa’s two wins against Indiana. I'm using ESPN because we don't know how the committee feels about teams beyond the Top 16. Here are some notes on how teams have done since then. One other note: I don’t know exactly how these teams stand compared to their fellow seeds, so the order presented is mostly random.

4-Notre Dame- Haven’t played.

4- Tennessee- Lost at #1 South Carolina. Obviously that’s not a bad loss, but they’ve lost a lot of games recently, and I believe they just lost a major player to injury for the rest of the season. They seem vulnerable.

4- LSU- Beat #17 Florida. That should boost their resume further.

4- Maryland- Lost at #9 Michigan. That’s not a bad loss, but they had only just moved up to a top 4 seed. We certainly won’t jump them yet, and they have a chance to beat Indiana this week.

5- BYU- Won big over Gonzaga. They play in a really weak conference. We probably won’t jump them yet, but might if we keep winning. They won’t have many opportunities for big wins.

5- Georgia- Lost at 10-15 Auburn. They’ve lost a lot recently, and are already ranked below us in the AP Poll (which didn’t factor in tonight’s Indiana win). I think we jump them.

5- Oregon- Beat California close at home, lost close at home against #2 Stanford. The Stanford loss isn’t bad, but they also missed a big chance to improve their resume. Not sure that Iowa jumps them yet.

5- Virginia Tech- Lost at #3 Louisville. That’s obviously not a bad loss, but they had just moved up to a 5 seed. Could two Indiana wins see us jump them? Maybe.

6- Georgia Tech- Lost by double-digits to Miami. They’ve lost a lot recently. I think we jump them.

6- North Carolina- Won at Florida State. That’s not a big win, but they haven’t hurt their resume, so I don’t know if we jump them.

6- Ohio State- Beat Wisconsin. We were above them not that long ago, though, so I think we jump them with the Indiana wins.

6- Florida- Lost at #11 LSU, which isn't a bad loss. They jumped us in the last projection, though, so I think that we jump them.

In Sum: I think there’s a good chance we’re either the top 6 seed or one of the 5 seeds in ESPN’s next projection. I also think we could jump a few more teams with another big win or two. Tennessee also looks like a vulnerable 4 seed, so I definitely think a top 4 seed is in play with a strong finish.
 
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Latest bracketology from ESPN has Iowa moving up to a 5-seed.
-Michigan a 2-seed
-Indiana holding steady as a 4-seed
-Maryland a 4-seed
-Ohio State a 7-seed (personally I'm surprised they aren't higher based on their wins over us and Maryland)
-Nebraska a 7-seed
-Northwestern in the first 4 out

"Thanks to Iowa's two wins over Indiana in three days, there's a logjam at the top of the Big Ten. With just a week left in the regular season, any one of five teams -- Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa -- could win the conference title. That quintet, plus Nebraska, give the Big Ten six NCAA tournament teams, and none is seeded lower than No. 7. The same games this week that will determine the Big Ten's regular-season winner and double byes in the conference tournament will also impact the makeup of the top 16 seeds. The loser of Friday's Indiana-Maryland game is likely out. Iowa, which hosts Michigan on Sunday, has a shot at hosting first- and second-round NCAA tournament games if the Hawkeyes can beat the Wolverines and make a run in the Big Ten tournament. Sure, the conference is a little top-heavy, but the top has proved to be really good." -- Charlie Creme

Other Iowa opponents:
-Iowa State a 2-seed
-Central Florida a 7-seed (this was an underrated pick up for us in the non-conference)
-Duke an 11-seed (they dealt with a lot of injuries in January and early February)
-IUPUI out, unless they win the Horizon League tournament (their loss to Northern Kentucky likely killed their chances of getting an at-large bid -- if they make the field they will likely be a 12-seed based on their high NET)
-UNI would also need to win the MVC tournament
 
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Latest bracketology from ESPN has Iowa moving up to a 5-seed.
-Michigan a 2-seed
-Indiana holding steady as a 4-seed
-Maryland a 4-seed
-Ohio State a 7-seed (personally I'm surprised they aren't higher based on their wins over us and Maryland)
-Nebraska a 7-seed
-Northwestern in the first 4 out

"Thanks to Iowa's two wins over Indiana in three days, there's a logjam at the top of the Big Ten. With just a week left in the regular season, any one of five teams -- Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa -- could win the conference title. That quintet, plus Nebraska, give the Big Ten six NCAA tournament teams, and none is seeded lower than No. 7. The same games this week that will determine the Big Ten's regular-season winner and double byes in the conference tournament will also impact the makeup of the top 16 seeds. The loser of Friday's Indiana-Maryland game is likely out. Iowa, which hosts Michigan on Sunday, has a shot at hosting first- and second-round NCAA tournament games if the Hawkeyes can beat the Wolverines and make a run in the Big Ten tournament. Sure, the conference is a little top-heavy, but the top has proved to be really good." -- Charlie Creme

Other Iowa opponents:
-Iowa State a 2-seed
-Central Florida a 7-seed (this was an underrated pick up for us in the non-conference)
-Duke an 11-seed (they dealt with a lot of injuries in January and early February)
-IUPUI out, unless they win the Horizon League tournament (their loss to Northern Kentucky likely killed their chances of getting an at-large bid -- if they make the field they will likely be a 12-seed based on their high NET)
-UNI would also need to win the MVC tournament
I wish Creme would do seed lists like Lunardi does on the men's side. He thinks the loser of Maryland-Indiana falls off the 4 line, but doesn't say who would replace them. Presumably that's not Iowa, because he thinks Iowa needs to beat Michigan, then make a run in the BTT. So who is it? And how many of the other 5s is Iowa behind?

My guess is Iowa likely needs 2 more big wins to host. That could either be Michigan plus one good team in the BTT, or both in the BTT. But it's also possible if resumes are close that one more big win combined with Clark's star power are enough to get Iowa over the line. The sport can market games better if Clark makes the second weekend.
 
From thenext, what each team needs to happen to win the regular season championship.

A week before the conference tournament, the Big Ten currently has five teams ranked in the Associated Press’ top-25 poll. Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State and Maryland are all breathing down each others necks for the conference lead. The Wolverines (for now) are on top of the Big Ten but have a narrow half game lead over the Terrapins, Buckeyes and Hawkeyes while the Hoosiers trail by one game.

The state of the Big Ten has never been stronger and the race to come out on top of the conference is ramping up. There is nothing more emblematic of this than the last 72 hours between Indiana and Iowa.

The Hawkeyes, who have fallen as low as 22nd in the AP’s poll this season, dealt Indiana two punishing blows that now leaves the Hoosiers outside of the top-four in the conference. Despite a 42-point fourth quarter outburst from Indiana, Iowa pulled off an 96-92 upset in Bloomington on Feb. 19 before coming back down 10 points at home last night to pull within a half game of Michigan. The Hawkeyes have rebounded nicely since losing to Maryland on Feb. 14 and Michigan on Feb. 6. They control their own destiny in the final two games of the regular season. If they beat Rutgers and upset Michigan, the Hawkeyes would clinch bragging rights heading into the tournament. With Caitlin Clark averaging the most points and assists per game in the country, anything is possible with this team that complements her skillset very well.

Then there’s the Hoosiers, who really needed junior Mackenzie Holmes to be reinserted into the lineup. She made her return to action on Feb. 17 versus Northwestern after missing eight games with a knee injury. Holmes’ presence on the block was sorely missed during her recovery. Per Synergy Sports, her 1.146 points per possession in the paint ranked in the 95th percentile heading into Indiana’s matchup against Iowa and the flow of the Hoosiers’ offense had been disrupted without her.

However, Holmes is still recovering and losing to Iowa twice in a four-day span is not what the Hoosiers were hoping for with the playoffs coming up. They have one more game versus Maryland on Feb. 25 to find their groove but after a strong start to the season, Indiana has limped to the finish line. They have lost three out of their last four games after ranking fifth in the AP’s poll.

Michigan is looking down at the rest of its conference foes mainly due to the play of Naz Hillmon. Scoring 23.9 points a game on only 14.4 shots a game, she has been the driving force all season for the Wolverines. They will play their interstate rivals in Michigan State on Feb. 24 and try to avenge their most recent loss to the Spartans, who upset them in East Lansing less than two weeks ago. Michigan State has struggled on the road (4-6) and has given up 7.3 three-pointers a game to opponents this season. However, they are playing a Michigan team that is only attempting 15.1 threes a game. The Wolverines should win this matchup but if they don’t, the Hawkeyes looked hungry versus their most recent bout versus Indiana. They are going to come into that matchup swinging when they the Wolverines on Feb. 27.

Despite their most recent loss to Michigan, Maryland has looked like a different team since Diamond Miller has returned to the lineup. After dealing with a knee injury for most of the season, she is now averaging 13.9 points per game. Angel Reese has also been on a tear is pulling down an absurd 5.2 offensive rebounds per game in conference play this season. The Terrapins have won eight of their last nine games and are hoping Iowa loses to Rutgers and beats Michigan to be crowned regular season conference champions.

The last part of the equation is the Buckeyes, who have the easiest schedule compared to the previously listed teams. Ohio State is facing Penn State and Michigan State this week and is looking for their arch rivals in the Wolverines to fall apart in their last two games of the season. The Buckeyes are looking for this scenario to win the conference:

  • Win out the rest of the season
  • Michigan State beats Michigan
  • Indiana beats Maryland
  • Iowa loses to Rutgers, beats Michigan
As we have seen throughout this entire season, crazier things have happened in the Big Ten. The last week of regular season play will be full of drama heading into the conference tournament. The only question that remains is who will come out on top.



 
Does anyone know what our potential B1G seeding looks like if we lose to Michigan and/or Rutgers?
If we beat Rutgers, we can finish in the 1, 2, or 4 seeds I believe (4 with a loss to Michigan, 1 or 2 with a win). There might be some convoluted way to make us a 3 seed, but it's not likely.

Edit: If Ohio State were to lose out, we could be a 3 seed with a win over Rutgers and a loss to Michigan. I don't see that as likely, so I'd say 1, 2, or 4 are most realistic. We have to win out and have Ohio State lose once to get the 1.
 
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Does anyone know what our potential B1G seeding looks like if we lose to Michigan and/or Rutgers?
If we lose to Rutgers AND Michigan, we drop to the #5 seed behind Indiana to answer your question. We might as well get used to having a rematch with Indiana next Friday. If we beat Rutgers and lose to Michigan, the most likely scenario, we still play Indiana as the #4 seed. It will be a war no matter what.

 
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Does anyone know what our potential B1G seeding looks like if we lose to Michigan and/or Rutgers?
Play around with this tool and you can see all the scenarios.
-The lowest we can fall is #5, which would mean going 0-2 this week.
-We could end up at #4 (or very unlikely #3) in various scenarios where we go 1-1 this week.
-If we win out, we will be #2, unless Ohio State loses a game, then we could be #1.
 
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What we really need IMO is a starting wing that plays tough perimeter defense and can also handle the ball a bit. A player like Veronica Burton or Nicole Cardano-Hillary. That's what I'd look for in the transfer portal.

Gabbie and Kate do their best to fill that role, but neither is a particularly good ball-handler, and neither is nearly as disruptive on defense. Perhaps Affolter can fill that role in time, but she's going to need to develop quickly to have that impact next year.
 
What if Clark gets hurt? Or foul trouble or needs a rest. We need another ball handler.
Gotcha. Gabbie is a PG and Kylie can move the ball a bit but yes, we could use another PG. Bringing someone really good might be difficult with Caitlin having 2 more years.
 
Play around with this tool and you can see all the scenarios.
-The lowest we can fall is #5, which would mean going 0-2 this week.
-We could end up at #4 (or very unlikely #3) in various scenarios where we go 1-1 this week.
-If we win out, we will be #2, unless Ohio State loses a game, then we could be #1.
Thank you! That's really helpful along with the tool!
 
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What we really need IMO is a starting wing that plays tough perimeter defense and can also handle the ball a bit. A player like Veronica Burton or Nicole Cardano-Hillary. That's what I'd look for in the transfer portal.

Gabbie and Kate do their best to fill that role, but neither is a particularly good ball-handler, and neither is nearly as disruptive on defense. Perhaps Affolter can fill that role in time, but she's going to need to develop quickly to have that impact next year.
I would classify Burton and Hillary as PGs. We need another PG to handle the ball, but who can also play the 2/3 for scoring/defense.

How I see next year if we don't get anyone

PG Clark/McCabe/Fuerbach
SG Marshall/McCabe (starting by end of year)/Fuerbach
WG/SF Martin/Stuelke/Fuerbach/Affollter/Wettering (per Bluder as to her recruitment)
PF Warnock/Gyamfi/Wettering/O'Grady?
C Czinano/Goodman/O'Grady/Gyamfi

Jasmine Powell would be nice but not likely. I see she has set up a visit with UT and I haven't heard anything about our staff reaching out. She's also a junior and likely wants to go somewhere where she has a chance to earn a starting spot.

It will depend on who enters the portal obviously. It will be hard with Clark locked up as the starter but I think there is opportunity for minutes at the 2 and 3 also, especially for someone who is disruptive on defense and can drive to the hoop.

A name that stands out should she decide to enter the portal as a grad transfer would be Rachel Hakes/Fairfield. Her numbers don't pop as far as scoring but she appears to be a good defensive PG and distributor. Fairfield is in Minnesota so it's also makes sense regionally. If she enters the portal as a grad transfer, I imagine she'll have several BIG suitors.

If we don't get a PG, then McCabe will be more vital. She is a shooting guard, but she does have some handles and I imagine she has to be better at running the point than any other option currently on the roster not named Clark.

Wettering and Goodman's PT will depend on how they bounce back from injury. With Sharon having a Covid year and not taking a redshirt, if she's hampered, I hope that she will redshirt which would allow her to recover and create some space between her and O'Grady.
 
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Sounds like Ashley Scoggin's from Nebraska will be in the portal. But I doubt if Lisa would want someone with possible baggage.
 
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