Hawkeye Women's BBall Season 2022-2023
- Thread starter huntermmm
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Or just keep your stupid comments to yourself.
I assume they'll fly out right after the game, especially considering the forecast.
Wow, Ediger scored 10 points, Jada Gyamfi played for the first time and ripped down 4 rebounds in 2 minutes, and Goodman missed all of her layup attempts. From my untrained eyes, Gyamfi actually looks to be more coordinated in her movement than Stuelke.
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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My (completely amateur) takeaways from the game today. All of the positives should be taken with a grain of salt considering the competition, but....
- Edigar, McCabe, and Gyamfi looked a hell of a lot better than virtually every other reserve out there. Edigar looked smooth tbh -- while Gyamfi looked hungry. Granted, Jada didn't check in til the end of the game so everyone else was tired and she had fresh legs, but it is what it is. She made the most of her time. McCabe finally started to look like a shooter, and had a nice steal as well, I believe. O'Grady looked lost -- v. surprising, this could have been quite an opportunity for her to get in a rhythm. Wettering and Goodman couldn't get anything to fall. Davis faded into the background tbh.
- The announcers called this "shooting practice" for us but all I could see was a lots of bad passes leading to some bad TOs from Clark. She was obvi trying to get that triple double with assists but it wasn't gonna happen -- no matter who she was passing to, it was kind of painful to watch IMO. Czinano looked like she's getting closer to finding her groove. Warnock was steady as always. Martin had an amazing showing of 13 assists but not much else. Marshall continued to underwhelm. Affolter looked good--lots of hustle, solid rebounding. Starting to remind me a bit of Martin actually (both strengths and weaknesses).
- The announcers once again (different announcers this time) remarked how badly Clark wants Martin back for a 5th year. I believe his words were "Anytime anyone asks Martin if she is coming back for a 5th year, Clark answers YES for her." I don't think Clark would be speaking like this to the press about Martin if she and Bluder weren't in sync. Furthermore I don't think she'd want to make Martin uncomfortable. I think chances are high Martin will be back for her COVID year (likely a reason why we have heard that Bluder didn't mind having a small recruiting class for 2023 and had shifted her focus to 2024 awhile ago).
- I miss Tomi on offense and defense. The way Marshall is playing and with Feuerbach out, you can't help but wonder if she'd have finally earned a starting spot at the 2.
- You really have to wonder how we can get Edigar out there more, sooner or later. If she doesn't fit in with our system, why can't we change the system a bit? Her Top 50 rank couldn't have been for nothing and it's games like this you can see why. She doesn't look spectacular, but she looks fundamentally reliable. I'd hate to see her be another Lauren Jensen situation.
- Not including CC bc she'll always be in the rotation, but our front court stack (Warnock/Czinano -> Stuelke/O'Grady/Edigar/Gyamfi/Goodman) is looking to be much more potent of a threat as a whole than our back court stack (Marshall/Martin -> Davis/Affolter/McCabe/Wettering). Neither is solid from top to bottom but I think it’s clear which has more weapons.
So I am seeing yet another example of an opportunity for us to find success with 2 posts on the floor, as we did in 2019. If we're such a "post factory", why don't we focus on them more in our game play / offensive style?
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In regards to your comments about AJ Ediger getting more minutes, in the press conference today Bluder mentioned that after Czinano there hasn't been a clearcut backup 5 but thinks AJ may have just been the one to show up from her performance in the game today.
Does anyone think Monica has regressed? or is it that other teams have figured her out?
She has definitely been in a funk the last three games compared to earlier in the season. Actually, I think it is a little of both. But she certainly is struggling at this point.
Teams are playing very aggressive and more physical with her. Getting bumped isn’t being called. O Grady was last post to play and her playing last looks deserving. No sophomore jump we saw with Megan or Monica. AJ is quicker than Sharon or OGrady And played well against an overmatched team while the other 2 didn’t.
I continue to be underimpressed by Molly compared to what the hype surrounding her was. She's a serviceable backup for Caitlin to give her a blow, but she is way too sloppy with the ball. Shows flashes of talent, but not enough yet to make me a believer. Impressive we had 30 assists on 35 baskets though.
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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I still think she is trying too hard to fit in. She is used to being THE go to player on the court, which she obviously wouldn't be here. However, IMHO, she passes up way too many shots. I'm starting to think it might be by design because they same thing has happened to Marshall the past couple years, to the point where now Gabby has very little confidence in her offense. An open 3 for a good shooter is a great shot (make or miss) and forces the defense to defend out further which in turn opens things up for the posts and for Caitlin to drive.
Let it fly Molly!
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Agreed. When she is in with Caitlin, I am sure that she is supposed to be the 1 guard and move Caitlin to the 2 guard, but Caitlin still has the ball in her hands which basically moves Molly to the 2, and that's not her strength. With Caitlin out of the game and Molly the definitive 1 guard, she looks much more comfortable and looks to be a factor then. But really, Caitlin isn't out of the game that often, not nearly as much as we heard she would be, before the year started. Those minutes could become a factor, again, here in the 2nd half of the season.
I agree! She is 10-21 for the season so yeah Molly let it fly!
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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Not dissimilar from Feuerbach’s debut last year. Lots of people were surprised she was so restrained after being a significant weapon for ISU as a freshman.
Then again maybe that’s why she transferred — perhaps she didn’t feel ready. Most of the time she was on the floor last year she looked scared tbh.
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Molly has not reached the level I had hoped she would play at this year. Early on she showed a knack for scoring around the basket with reverse layups that allowed her to score without getting blocked. A lot of her passing attempts seem to be the right Idea, but are either slightly off target or passing to someone who is not on the same page. Its important to recognize that some of this is because of limited play on a team that has been together for years. I'm hoping she settles in as time goes on. As it is shes still a big upgrade as a backup point considering what we have had the last 2 years. Defense has been hit and miss with her, but that was the way she looked coming in and this staff seems to prioritize offense over defense a fair amount.
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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At this point…McKenna Warnock is the second best player on our team. How do we not welcome her back for a COVID year? Put Stuelke at the 3 or 5, let Davis move on, grab a dynamic 2/3 from the portal. Affolter, Feuerbach, McCabe, Gyamfi, O’Grady, Edigar stay in the mix for minutes and two of them may very well start.
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This is a decent-to-really good team. Not a great team. They simply aren’t athletic enough and don’t play anywhere remotely close to enough defense to go far at all. I’m afraid you’re looking at a repeat of last year come NCAA time
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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Okay but they made the Sweet 16 the year before? I’m not sure why literally everyone keeps forgetting this. Do I think this team is a favorite to make the Final 4? Probably not. Do I think a Sweet 16 is a very achievable goal, with an Elite 8 also a real possibility? Yes. Is there a universe where we make a final four? Probably. Perhaps just as importantly, are we a contender to win the B1G again? Most definitely.
This starting 5 has won convincingly against IU, Michigan, ISU, KY when they were all ranked…if that’s not a Sweet 16 caliber team, what is?
We beat the ‘22 Michigan Elite 8 team as well as the ‘22 IU team whose same roster made the ‘21 Elite 8.
We beat the ‘22 UNL roster (that knocked Michigan out of the B1G tourney before returning everyone and just demolished MD) — three times.
We have beaten ISU — once after they added a McD AA — twice.
We beat UNL (who knocked off MI and IU late in the season) 3x.
Why is everyone convinced we will be knocked out well before a Sweet 16? We were literally one stop/basket away from it last year before losing to a Creighton team that was and is also of a Sweet 16 caliber, based on their most recent Ws.
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In most years this team probably wouldn't have much of a chance of going to the Final Four, but this year is notably different because the top teams just aren't as good (at least right now).
South Carolina and Stanford are the clear #1 and #2. We would need to avoid their bracket in the tournament to have much of a chance at the Final Four. But after those teams, it really is a crapshoot.
Ohio State and Indiana are #3 and #4 in the AP Poll right now. OSU just lost a key starter for the season. Indiana just lost to a bad Michigan State team without Berger. I don't think either of those teams is significantly better than Iowa if at all.
#5 Notre Dame has already lost to a Maryland team that isn't clearly better than Iowa. We played our worst game of the year against #6 NC State and that game was still within striking distance most of the way.
I think UConn is probably the third best team in the country when (relatively) healthy, but they keep picking up injury after injury and we played them very close when they were relatively healthy.
In sum, I don't think our chances of a Final Four are great, but we should acknowledge there are only 2 elite teams right now, whereas most years that number is 4-5 at least.
South Carolina and Stanford are the clear #1 and #2. We would need to avoid their bracket in the tournament to have much of a chance at the Final Four. But after those teams, it really is a crapshoot.
Ohio State and Indiana are #3 and #4 in the AP Poll right now. OSU just lost a key starter for the season. Indiana just lost to a bad Michigan State team without Berger. I don't think either of those teams is significantly better than Iowa if at all.
#5 Notre Dame has already lost to a Maryland team that isn't clearly better than Iowa. We played our worst game of the year against #6 NC State and that game was still within striking distance most of the way.
I think UConn is probably the third best team in the country when (relatively) healthy, but they keep picking up injury after injury and we played them very close when they were relatively healthy.
In sum, I don't think our chances of a Final Four are great, but we should acknowledge there are only 2 elite teams right now, whereas most years that number is 4-5 at least.
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anon_salmfilsntd0b
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This is a spot on take. Due to coaching changes, Baylor, ND, Tennessee are just not who they were 5 years ago. Not to mention what has happened at other powerhouses like Oregon/Oregon State, Maryland, Louisville, etc. This has created quite a vacuum, allowing programs like Iowa, Indiana, Iowa State, Michigan to find some air and shine a bit. Kudos to Ohio State for staying competitive this entire time.
In 2019 when we made the Elite 8, it was clear there were 7 elite teams, and we were the best of the rest — the clear #8 both in seeding and in the tourney results. There’s an argument to be made that this roster (or perhaps next year’s roster) could again be the “best of the rest” — the difference being of course that now there are only 2-3 elite teams. Clearly there’s work to do, but we are no worse than a contender (among 5 or 6 teams) for that #4 spot come tourney seeding. We have vulnerabilities but so does every other team not named Stanford, South Carolina and (a healthy) UConn.
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Lisa Bluder was very complimentary when talking about Illinois today. Said she thinks that Makira Cook, Genesis Bryant and Adalia McKenzie could be the best guard trio in the conference.
I don't think Iowa will get knocked out in the 2nd round. Last night was very encouraging. Defense played lights out and won despite scoring droughts in the 3rd quarter. Helped that PU was tossing bricks but there also seemed to be more effort -- jumping passing lanes, fighting for rebounds.
Stuelke was very impressive last night as was Warnock. Bluder has opened her bench some getting more PT for Affolter and Ediger.
Ball movement last night was phenomenal. Defensive intensity and awareness last night were also the best I've seen against real competition in 4 years.
Kate Martin is finally playing as the real Kate Martin.
My assessment so far is that we've battled when tested. We battled KState and UConn. Only the NC State were we really overmatched, and NC State is a team that has a great chance of playing in the final. With Nebraska/OSU/Indiana all battling injuries, we have a great shot at an outright BIG title as I'm not 100% sold on Maryland. An outright BIG regular season title and tourney championship and we're likely a 2-3 seed again. I think we will make the Sweet Sixteen and there's a strong possibility of being an Elite Eight team. Making the FF will depend more on the opponent than anything. This team is not perfect, but there is enough athleticism on the bench to make a run.
Is O'Grady still in the doghouse? She did not play much, In my novice opinion I believe she has a higher ceiling, better shot blocking than Ediger or Goodman.
The tournament ceiling for Bluder's teams is usually so hard to evaluate, because there are virtually no teams that look like a traditional Bluder Iowa that garner high tournament seeds or make deep runs in the tourney. When Iowa has had NCAA success under Bluder, it did so as a pronounced defensive statistical outlier. Predicting that success, or replicating that success, is really hard.
Seeding: Of the 48 teams to receive a # 2 seed since 2010, 41 were top 20 adjusted defensive efficiency teams, another 5 were top 32, and the last 2 were Iowa at #54 (2019) and Iowa at #99 (2022) (all stats per Her Hoop Stats). Since last year's Iowa team was going away the worst defensive team to receive a # 2 seed since 2010 (when advanced stats are available), it is hardly surprising that Iowa did not live up to its seed last year.
Tournament Performance: Of the 96 teams to make the Elite 8 since 2010, 90 were top 30 defensive teams, another 3 were top 42, and the bottom 3 outliers were Iowa in 2019 (# 54), Oregon in 2017 (# 54), and Creighton last year (# 74). So in context, making the Elite 8 in 2019 was not only a huge achievement for Bluder, it was a defensive statistical anomaly that is really hard to duplicate.
Iowa's Sweet 16 teams in 2015 and 2021 are also striking statistical outliers on the defensive end. Of the 192 teams to make a Sweet 16 since 2010, 164 were top 40 defensive teams, another 23 were top 80 defensive teams. The bottom 5 defensive teams to make a Sweet 16 since 2010 are Iowa in 2015 (defensive rank 107), Kansas-2013 (# 117), C. Michigan-2018 (# 149), Duke-2015 (# 179), and Iowa-2021 (# 186). Thus, Iowa making the Sweet 16 two years ago with the worst defense to do so since 2010 was a huge accomplishment.
Ceiling for This Season: The ceiling for this year is hard to predict because, so far, this year's team does not resemble a traditional Bluder team. For starters, the offense is down in some key areas. Last year Iowa was the best team in WBB history at shooting free throws. This year Iowa is down 10% to be middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Clark and Czinano are both markedly down at the line, and Stuelke is not going to be a good free thrower, at least this season. Czinano is also off from the field, and the bench adds very little on the offensive end most nights (last night being a nice exception, and hopefully a harbinger of things to come). On the other hand, turnovers are materially down this year. The net result is that Iowa has fallen from # 1 in the country last year in adjusted offensive efficiency, to # 8 this year, which is second in the Big Ten this year to Indiana.
But the defensive end, so far, is another story. Iowa's current Her Hoop Stats defensive rank is # 35, which is rare air for Iowa (having never finished in the top 50 since 2010), and markedly up from last season's rank (# 99). There are two apparent statistical explanations for Iowa's defensive improvement. First, Iowa has improved from # 109 in defensive rebounding rate to # 2 in the country. This is by far the biggest reason for Iowa's defensive improvement this year. In the last 10 years, Iowa has never finished in the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate. Can Iowa keep this up, or even finish top 25? If so, Iowa becomes a very different team to evaluate for possible tourney success. Second, opponent turnovers are also up this year (while still low), which, along with defensive rebounds, means fewer opponent shots. Opponent EFG% is very slightly up this year, so the defensive improvement this year is ultimately the result of less opponent scoring attempts. If the defensive rebounding advantage were to wane, that would really hurt Iowa's defensive ranking, and prospects.
At the beginning of the season, I thought that the Sweet 16 was the ceiling for this team, given its athletic and defensive shortcomings. Even then, Iowa would still need the right matchups (like Kentucky in 2021). But now, I don't know. The current team is so un-Bluder like in terms of defense and rebounding (though the Kachine Alexander teams were good rebounding teams) that it makes them hard to evaluate. If they stay a top 35-40 defensive team, making the Sweet 16 is a very realistic possibility. Beyond that, it is hard to know, but I agree with the take by BraydonRoberts5 that only S. Carolina and Stanford look like truly elite teams. Avoid them in the Sweet 16 game, and perhaps the Elite 8 is possible. However, if Iowa were to regress markedly in the direction of a traditional Bluder defensive ranking, then even the Sweet 16 becomes difficult, and match-up dependent.
There definitely is a disconnect between her and the caches right now., It seems like they are not on the smae page. I find it frustrating, because like you I think she has the highest ceiling. It seems like the quick hooks really affected her game. She seems unable to come in for short spurts and play well. Her best games last year were where Cinzano got in foul trouble and she settled in. I think they want her to play like Monica and her game is more face up. Bluder talked about giving Monica rest in the pre-season, but this year she is getting much shorter rests than last year, even in games where she is not playing well. Its one of the things that doesnt make sense if you are trying to develop the bench behind her.
Agreed. Our bench utilization this year is puzzling to me. I thought Czinano and O'Grady were used well at the 5 last year, but as you mentioned it seems like O'Grady's shifts this year are much shorter. O'Grady in particular seems to struggle in short stints, but it's hard for any player to do well in such limited time.
After Stuelke's start to the year I thought she'd be getting more playing time. Instead she's played 11 minutes or less in all of our competitive games. Stuelke has game-changing athleticism. She's already developing more control and moves around the basket. The coaches need to find ways to get her on the floor more.
I think Affolter is suffering the same fate O'Grady is. She's made some really good plays when she has been in, but she plays so little it's hard for her to make a big impact or to even evaluate where her game stands.
O"Grady plays soft...In my opinion she really needs to hit the weights and get in the mindset of overpowering the post. She repeatedly gets the ball knocked out of her hands due to her lack of strength.
Stuelke will play more minutes when she learns to control fouls and turnovers. She did a pretty good job last night and had a double-double in 11 minutes.
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