Hawkeye Women's BBall Season 2022-2023

[undersized_post]

Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection

Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.

www.espn.com

"In the final top-16 reveal, the NCAA committee leaned toward recent success over full body of work -- even though that hasn't been what the committee has prioritized in the past. This week, a nagging feeling has lingered that the trend will continue. So as we head into Selection Sunday, Iowa has been elevated to the fourth No. 1 seed, dropping Stanford to the 2-line. The Cardinal have a better overall résumé than Iowa, but the image of the Hawkeyes beating Indiana on a buzzer-beater in the regular-season finale then blowing out Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament title game might prove too much to ignore for this committee. Stanford losing in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals opened the door; the committee will push Iowa through it. UConn also slides up the 2-line and to No. 5 overall. Deciphering the paper-thin differences among the Huskies, Hawkeyes and Cardinal looms as the committee's most difficult task."

Charlie Creme finally bumps us up to a 1-seed. TBH this feels like a pretty blatant effort by ESPN to maximize clicks on the eve of Selection Sunday. Why change this now when neither Iowa nor Stanford have played all week? But hey... I'll take it.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection

Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.

www.espn.com

"In the final top-16 reveal, the NCAA committee leaned toward recent success over full body of work -- even though that hasn't been what the committee has prioritized in the past. This week, a nagging feeling has lingered that the trend will continue. So as we head into Selection Sunday, Iowa has been elevated to the fourth No. 1 seed, dropping Stanford to the 2-line. The Cardinal have a better overall résumé than Iowa, but the image of the Hawkeyes beating Indiana on a buzzer-beater in the regular-season finale then blowing out Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament title game might prove too much to ignore for this committee. Stanford losing in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals opened the door; the committee will push Iowa through it. UConn also slides up the 2-line and to No. 5 overall. Deciphering the paper-thin differences among the Huskies, Hawkeyes and Cardinal looms as the committee's most difficult task."

Charlie Creme finally bumps us up to a 1-seed. TBH this feels like a pretty blatant effort by ESPN to maximize clicks on the eve of Selection Sunday. Why change this now when neither Iowa nor Stanford have both not played all week? But hey... I'll take it.

Creme begrudgingly moves us up.

 

[shikreto]

This is also how Megan Gauer, UConn reporter has us and UConn. UConn fans would love this. I’d prefer Stanford or VA tech…

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection

Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.

www.espn.com

"In the final top-16 reveal, the NCAA committee leaned toward recent success over full body of work -- even though that hasn't been what the committee has prioritized in the past. This week, a nagging feeling has lingered that the trend will continue. So as we head into Selection Sunday, Iowa has been elevated to the fourth No. 1 seed, dropping Stanford to the 2-line. The Cardinal have a better overall résumé than Iowa, but the image of the Hawkeyes beating Indiana on a buzzer-beater in the regular-season finale then blowing out Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament title game might prove too much to ignore for this committee. Stanford losing in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals opened the door; the committee will push Iowa through it. UConn also slides up the 2-line and to No. 5 overall. Deciphering the paper-thin differences among the Huskies, Hawkeyes and Cardinal looms as the committee's most difficult task."

Charlie Creme finally bumps us up to a 1-seed. TBH this feels like a pretty blatant effort by ESPN to maximize clicks on the eve of Selection Sunday. Why change this now when neither Iowa nor Stanford have both not played all week? But hey... I'll take it.

Of course that comes out just after my preview was posted....

I agree with his rationale, but yeah waiting a week to do it is strange. Frankly I think you could apply the same rationale to Iowa-Virginia Tech and move Iowa above Tech. Giving Iowa a 1 seed only to be paired with 2 seed UConn would be a real gut punch.

 

[huntermmm]

Of course that comes out just after my preview was posted....

I agree with his rationale, but yeah waiting a week to do it is strange. Frankly I think you could apply the same rationale to Iowa-Virginia Tech and move Iowa above Tech. Giving Iowa a 1 seed only to be paired with 2 seed UConn would be a real gut punch.

That happened to NC State last season except they got paired in UConn’s backyard which made it even worse

 

[conn53victor]

Things I don’t understand: In the NCAA tournament, ‪why aren’t all the First Four 16 seeds? Why have 11 seeds as First Fours? And two regionals each get two of the First Four games, while the other two regionals get none.‬

 

[undersized_post]

Things I don’t understand: In the NCAA tournament, ‪why aren’t all the First Four 16 seeds? Why have 11 seeds as First Fours? And two regionals each get two of the First Four games, while the other two regionals get none.‬

I like the First Four format of two 16 vs 16 games and two 11 vs 11 games. To make all of the 16 seeds play in the first four seems disrespectful to the lower major teams that have taken their destiny into their own hands and *earned* an NCAA tournament berth outright by winning their conference tournaments. The two 11 vs 11 games are usually the "last four in" teams -- the worst 4 teams to earn at large bids. Those are teams with quite weak resumes that barely squeaked in the tournament -- below average Power 5 teams, or decent mid majors that got upset in their conference but still had good enough non-conference performances to justify an at large selection... barely. It seems fair to me make them "earn" their shot at advancing when they arguably don't belong in the tournament to begin with.

It isn't a done deal that all the First Four games will end up in just two regionals. That's just a random bracketology projection. For example, last year the First Four women's games were spread across three regionals. I think it depends on the venue availability of the Top-16 hosting teams as well as geographical proximity to a certain extent.

 

[huntermmm]

 

[undersized_post]

Given that it came down to Iowa and Stanford as the #4 and #5 overall teams, I'm glad we got the 2-seed. *If* we take care of business in the first two rounds (big if), we would then be looking at Texas or Duke. I personally think 3-seed Duke would be easier to beat than 4-seed Texas. I actually wish we had been #6 overall because getting through Ohio State and Virginia Tech would be an even easier route.

But honestly, if we want any chance at making a final four run, all the regions besides South Carolina's are pretty interchangeable.

Realistically I'm just hoping to get to that second weekend and have a respectable showing, whatever that may mean.

 

[AMAYS]

Given that it came down to Iowa and Stanford as the #4 and #5 overall teams, I'm glad we got the 2-seed. *If* we take care of business in the first two rounds (big if), we would then be looking at Texas or Duke. I personally think 3-seed Duke would be easier to beat than 4-seed Texas. I actually wish we had been #6 overall because getting through Ohio State and Virginia Tech would be an even easier route.

But honestly, if we want any chance at making a final four run, all the regions besides South Carolina's are pretty interchangeable.

Realistically I'm just hoping to get to that second weekend and have a respectable showing, whatever that may mean.

I hope you’re right about Duke being a better matchup than Texas. Duke’s pace of play is so slow, and a lesser possession game is bad for Iowa, IMO. I would have preferred Texas, who I think is overrated. But I hope you’re right.

I’m with you about #6. That’s what I was hoping for, when I thought # 5 was likely.

 

[fish1hawk]

Given that it came down to Iowa and Stanford as the #4 and #5 overall teams, I'm glad we got the 2-seed. *If* we take care of business in the first two rounds (big if), we would then be looking at Texas or Duke. I personally think 3-seed Duke would be easier to beat than 4-seed Texas. I actually wish we had been #6 overall because getting through Ohio State and Virginia Tech would be an even easier route.

But honestly, if we want any chance at making a final four run, all the regions besides South Carolina's are pretty interchangeable.

Realistically I'm just hoping to get to that second weekend and have a respectable showing, whatever that may mean.

Agree, we have a shot. Would hope to see a final 4 for Lisa. Playing at this high a level is really hard to do. Great job By her.

 

[shikreto]

Michigan State Announces Women’s Basketball Leadership Change - Michigan State University Athletics

Michigan State Vice President and Director of Athletics Alan Haller and women's basketball head coach Suzy Merchant have come to a mutual decision that Merchant

msuspartans.com

This announcement is very messy. Her official line is that she's stepping down due to health reasons but the line from the school is that was mutual. Not sure why they had to do her like that when the health line was believable / likely true to some extent.

 

[LinusPF]

I hope you’re right about Duke being a better matchup than Texas. Duke’s pace of play is so slow, and a lesser possession game is bad for Iowa, IMO. I would have preferred Texas, who I think is overrated. But I hope you’re right.

I’m with you about #6. That’s what I was hoping for, when I thought # 5 was likely.

Agreed. Even as recent as last week, we struggled more with a Duke style of play (Purdue) than we did a Texas style of play (Maryland & Ohio St.).

 

[undersized_post]

Agreed. Even as recent as last week, we struggled more with a Duke style of play (Purdue) than we did a Texas style of play (Maryland & Ohio St.).

Very interesting take, I would never think of comparing Texas to Maryland or OSU. Texas commits much much harder to rebounding and plays more true post players than both those teams combined. Only thing nominally similar is the fact that Texas runs a full court press all game, but it's more like a full court man than the trapping press OSU runs.

In fact almost all of the teams in our bracket outside of us are defensive oriented and struggle to score more than get stops:
1-seed Stanford
3-seed Duke
4-seed Texas
5-seed Louisville
6-seed Colorado
8-seed Ole Miss
9-seed Gonzaga
10-seed Georgia

7-seed Florida State is the only exception really.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Very interesting take, I would never think of comparing Texas to Maryland or OSU. Texas commits much much harder to rebounding and plays more true post players than both those teams combined. Only thing nominally similar is the fact that Texas runs a full court press all game, but it's more like a full court man than the trapping press OSU runs.

In fact almost all of the teams in our bracket outside of us are defensive oriented and struggle to score more than get stops:
1-seed Stanford
3-seed Duke
4-seed Texas
5-seed Louisville
6-seed Colorado
8-seed Ole Miss
9-seed Gonzaga
10-seed Georgia

7-seed Florida State is the only exception really.

FWIW Southeastern Louisiana is defensive too. Like you said, Florida State is basically the only realistic team we will play that isn't defense first.

 

[Hawkbiz]

Any idea what time the Iowa women's game will be on Sunday, pending a victory on Friday??

 

[mphawk]

Any idea what time the Iowa women's game will be on Sunday, pending a victory on Friday??

FWIW, last year it was at noon.

 

[shikreto]

Whoa — 11 of 12 ESPN writers/analysts pick us to make the Final 4. Could just be for clicks, but these people have watched a lot of basketball.

Women's March Madness predictions and Final Four picks

If South Carolina doesn't win, which team will? What might stop the Gamecocks? Which non-No. 1 seed could win the title? We have the answers, and predict the Final Four.

www.espn.com

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Whoa — 11 of 12 ESPN writers/analysts pick us to make the Final 4. Could just be for clicks, but these people have watched a lot of basketball.

Women's March Madness predictions and Final Four picks

If South Carolina doesn't win, which team will? What might stop the Gamecocks? Which non-No. 1 seed could win the title? We have the answers, and predict the Final Four.

www.espn.com

I think it's one of those things where you feel like you have to pick 1 or 2 teams that aren't 1 seeds. Iowa ended the year hot, while Stanford, Duke, Texas, and Louisville all lost in their conference tournaments.

I think Iowa's region has the most uncertainty of the 4. South Carolina is a heavy favorite. People think Indiana is whether they should be or not. UConn is a trendy pick now that they're healthy again. Any of the top 5 seeds could come out of Iowa's region and no one would be too surprised.

 

[shikreto]

Whoa — 11 of 12 ESPN writers/analysts pick us to make the Final 4. Could just be for clicks, but these people have watched a lot of basketball.

Women's March Madness predictions and Final Four picks

If South Carolina doesn't win, which team will? What might stop the Gamecocks? Which non-No. 1 seed could win the title? We have the answers, and predict the Final Four.

www.espn.com

During halftime of the Ill/MS state game, the pundits discussed an Iowa / Stanford matchup. They said Brink and Jones are as good as or better than Clark and Czinano, but our supporting cast are better than theirs, esp with regard to 3 pt shooting. Remarked that this year’s Stanford team just doesn’t have the depth / numbers of teams past.

 

[fish1hawk]

A few have mentioned Stanford offense is not as good as recent teams. If we can control pace and speed up play advantage Iowa.

 

[undersized_post]

Florida State's best player -- a Clark-esque freshman phenom guard -- will miss the NCAA tournament. I'd say odds are now very high we see Georgia in the second round.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

View embedded media

Florida State's best player -- a Clark-esque freshman phenom guard -- will miss the NCAA tournament. I'd say odds are now very high we see Georgia in the second round.

I hate that for Florida State and Latson, but it's a pretty huge break for us. Georgia is just 1-9 against NCAA Tournament teams (Mississippi State at home), so in either case we should be decent favorites. We've also seen Georgia's zone last year against UCF, which is a plus.

 

[AMAYS]

View embedded media

Florida State's best player -- a Clark-esque freshman phenom guard -- will miss the NCAA tournament. I'd say odds are now very high we see Georgia in the second round.

Would rather play FSU. Georgia’s athletic profile - near great offensive rebounding team (21st nationally) and great at forcing opponent turnovers (11th) - is not ideal for Iowa, though it is good prep for similar Duke. This profile is also something Iowa did not face in conference play. Maryland and OSU are good at forcing turnovers, but middling O-rebounding teams. IU is a poor O-rebounding team, and middling at forcing turnovers. Michigan is good in both categories, but not elite in either.

Edit: Georgia’s offensive rebounding rate is higher than any team Iowa has faced this year, and it forces turnovers at a higher rate than any team Iowa has faced this year. A twin challenge for Iowa, though Iowa is much improved on the defensive glass, and also usually better in keeping turnovers down (by Iowa standards).

 

[shikreto]

A few have mentioned Stanford offense is not as good as recent teams. If we can control pace and speed up play advantage Iowa.

I’m actually seeing a few people predict Texas would bounce Stanford before Iowa would get the chance. Very interesting.

 

[AMAYS]

I’m actually seeing a few people predict Texas would bounce Stanford before Iowa would get the chance. Very interesting.

I would be good with this. Since 2010, there are only 3 non-top 15 defensive teams to make the Final Four, and none of them had to beat a # 1seed to reach the Final Four.

 

[JEDN]

ISU beat Texas fairly easily the last 2 times they played so I’d be surprised if Texas will beat Stanford.

 

[shikreto]

ISU beat Texas fairly easily the last 2 times they played so I’d be surprised if Texas will beat Stanford.

I don’t expect that either, just interesting that way more people think Stanford is vulnerable (to multiple teams) than ever before.

 

[undersized_post]

Would rather play FSU. Georgia’s athletic profile - near great offensive rebounding team (21st nationally) and great at forcing opponent turnovers (11th) - is not ideal for Iowa, though it is good prep for similar Duke. This profile is also something Iowa did not face in conference play. Maryland and OSU are good at forcing turnovers, but middling O-rebounding teams. IU is a poor O-rebounding team, and middling at forcing turnovers. Michigan is good in both categories, but not elite in either.

Edit: Georgia’s offensive rebounding rate is higher than any team Iowa has faced this year, and it forces turnovers at a higher rate than any team Iowa has faced this year. A twin challenge for Iowa, though Iowa is much improved on the defensive glass, and also usually better in keeping turnovers down (by Iowa standards).

Responding to this now that we know for sure Georgia will be our Sunday opponent.

I very much agree with you. Georgia's defensive M.O. is to make the game as ugly as all get out. They play a weird 3-2 matchup zone that thrives on trapping the ball in the corners and making passes around the perimeter very difficult. We will give the game away if we don't take care of the ball. They do have size and shot blocking on the inside but I'm hoping Czinano can draw some fouls and get to the line. The key will be getting her the ball in creative ways. Direct entry passes are going to be difficult and the zone will collapse to prevent the dump off every time Caitlin drives. Our perimeter shooters will have to be ready to knock down shots when they are open because holding the ball too long will invite a trap and a turnover.

Offensively Georgia wants to slow the game way down, attack the paint, then maul the offensive glass. I fear we will be a bit shell shocked at first because there is no one in the Big Ten that compares to their physicality in that respect. I expect us to go to a zone pretty early and hope they start missing threes. But we still have to rebound...

It's a scary team because on paper they are just not that good but the intensity and swagger they play with is an intangible that you can't properly account for with analytics.

Last thing -- I hate to go here but it would be reallllly helpful if the refs don't let the physicality get too out of hand.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Here's my game story on the Georgia win with quotes from the coaches and Caitlin.

https://iowa.rivals.com/news/winning-the-battle-iowa-defeats-georgia-74-66

 

[AMAYS]

Are we sure we should be pulling for Ole Miss? Stanford is a low forced turnover team.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Are we sure we should be pulling for Ole Miss? Stanford is a low forced turnover team.

Yeah, but Brink might be the best rim protector in college basketball. That'd be a very tough matchup for Czinano.

 

[AMAYS]

Yeah, but Brink might be the best rim protector in college basketball. That'd be a very tough matchup for Czinano.

You’re right, but hard to know what poison to pick.

 

[undersized_post]

With Stanford losing, I would not be surprised to see any of Ole Miss, Texas, Louisville, Duke, or us make the Final Four. (Basically any team remaining except Colorado, who I just can't see winning three straight games.)

 

[huntermmm]

With Stanford losing, I would not be surprised to see any of Ole Miss, Texas, Louisville, Duke, or us make the Final Four. (Basically any team remaining except Colorado, who I just can't see winning three straight games.)

Really don’t know who it’ll be. I mean looking at that list of teams and it’s all defensive juggernauts except us.

 

[undersized_post]

Really don’t know who it’ll be. I mean looking at that list of teams and it’s all defensive juggernauts except us.

It really is a fascinating mix! Texas and Ole Miss have always played that way under their current coaches. Louisville and Duke have traditionally been more balanced offensively/defensively but have really leaned into the defense this year given the personnel they have.

We, on the other hand... well, our lackluster relationship with defense is very well documented and I don't have much more to add. 😂

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Any of the remaining teams could beat us on the right day. That said, I think we had somewhat of a talent deficit with Stanford that we won't necessarily have with the remaining teams.

I also think playing Georgia will help prepare us for the remaining teams. Georgia's defense was good, but Iowa made a ton of mental mistakes today. Hopefully next time around Iowa will learn from those mistakes and make better decisions.

 

[AMAYS]

With Stanford losing, I would not be surprised to see any of Ole Miss, Texas, Louisville, Duke, or us make the Final Four. (Basically any team remaining except Colorado, who I just can't see winning three straight games.)

So this means we should for sure pull for Colorado tomorrow.

 

[huntermmm]

Any of the remaining teams could beat us on the right day. That said, I think we had somewhat of a talent deficit with Stanford that we won't necessarily have with the remaining teams.

I also think playing Georgia will help prepare us for the remaining teams. Georgia's defense was good, but Iowa made a ton of mental mistakes today. Hopefully next time around Iowa will learn from those mistakes and make better decisions.

Agreed. If anybody thinks the defense will get easier they are wrongly mistaken. This was a great game for us to prepare for the upcoming game(s).

 

[undersized_post]

While I don't think the defenses will get easier, at least they will be more traditional schemes (man to man, full court pressure, maybe the occasional box and 1). I'm breathing a sigh of relief to get to face that as opposed to... whatever hellish junk it is that Georgia runs. 🙃