Hawkeye Women's BBall Season 2022-2023

[undersized_post]

I try not to get too negative towards other teams, but I have to admit I'm laughing inside thinking of how awful Indiana must be feeling seeing us just destroy Ohio State like that.

Bluder should hand deliver film of today's game to Teri Moren and label it, "How to break a press." 😂 😂 😂

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I try not to get too negative towards other teams, but I have to admit I'm laughing inside thinking of how awful Indiana must be feeling seeing us just destroy Ohio State like that.

Bluder should hand deliver film of today's game to Teri Moren and label it, "How to break a press." 😂 😂 😂

Yeah, what's bizarre to me is the concept of getting the ball to the middle of the floor is like press break 101, yet Indiana just kept going to the corner time after time. Props to Iowa for using Czinano to get it to the middle a lot, but Indiana should absolutely be kicking itself.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

The win over OSU solidifies my opinion of next year's lineup. I think that having Syd, Kate and Hannah on the floor together is definitely our best lineup. Syd balled out on D all game and Kate is so dyamic offensively.

PG Clark/Davis
SG Marshall/McCabe
SF Affolter/Wetering (Fuerbach if she's healthy could start or be the backup)
PFMartin/? (likely a rotation filled in part by Hannah sliding over when O'Grady/Goodman are in the game also. Could also so Wetering or Gyamfi with minutes here)
C Stuelke/O'Grady (The competition for backup C should be fierce. I wouldn't rule out AJ or Sharon)

 

[JupiterHawk]

Latest ESPN bracket as of Sunday night. Iowa is still #2 but in the same bracket and Virginia Tech is a #1 seed. Doesn't sound too bad. They would play the #3 seed UCONN in the Sweet 16 if both teams win out. UCOON plays tonight in their conf championship. I wonder if they would get bumped to a 2 seed.

Women's Bracketology: No. 1 seeds survive opening day, but make way for Michigan

The Big Ten is flexing one day into the season. The conference has two 1-seeds and matches the SEC's 11 teams as Michigan jumps into the field.

www.espn.com

 

[TheEnigma80]

You'd honestly think with the women's Resume plus the fact they beat 3 top 10 teams in the last week, they should be the last #1 Seed. No offense to VT But Iowa is a totally different animal this year and yesterday proved it again.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

You'd honestly think with the women's Resume plus the fact they beat 3 top 10 teams in the last week, they should be the last #1 Seed. No offense to VT But Iowa is a totally different animal this year and yesterday proved it again.

Yeah if I had to bet I'd say ESPN is wrong. Virginia Tech was 8th overall and Iowa 9th overall in the last reveal. It didn't seem like there was a ton of difference between teams 4-9. Since then Iowa has three of the better wins in the country. Tech did win the ACC Tournament, but they didn't play a team ranked higher than 13th to do it.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Looking ahead a bit, here are the teams ESPN has projected for Seeds 6-10. There's a very good chance that two of those teams will be in Iowa City for an 8-9 or 7-10 matchup.

6: Iowa State, Michigan, Washington State, Arizona
7: NC State, Creighton, South Florida, Florida State
8: Gonzaga, USC, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State
9: Illinois, Baylor, Miami, Georgia
10: Marquette, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi State

We know Michigan and Illinois won't be in Iowa City. The Committee is also supposed to avoid rematches where possible in the first two rounds, which would exclude NC State and Iowa State as well. Otherwise everyone else should be fair game.

 

[anon_salmfilsntd0b]

Thinking about the top 9 seeds, we can assume really only the top 3 seeds:

1. SC (100% lock)
2. Indiana (90% lock)
3. Stanford (~75% likely, IMHO)

After that it gets interesting. This is how I see it:

• 4-5 (Very tight): Iowa + VA Tech
• 6-9 (Very tight): MD, LSU, UConn, Utah

However, the committee will want to avoid conference foes in the same region. That includes:

1. IU, MD, UI
2. SC + LSU
3. Stanford + Utah

It will also want to ideally avoid an Indiana + UConn match up in the Elite 8 since they played in the Sweet 16 last year (it may not be able to but I think they'll throw IU a bone here). FWIW MD also played Stanford in the Sweet 16 last year, but I don't think that's as much of a hot bed. So If SC, UI and Stanford play out as expected at 1-3:

• Iowa and MD cannot be 7 (avoid IU)
• LSU cannot be 8 (avoid SC)
• Utah cannot be 6 (avoid Stanford)

Now, I just don't see the committee putting Maryland higher than Iowa. They clearly give tourney results substantial weight. So I think (hope) the order will be close to the following:

1. SC
2. Indiana
3. Stanford
4. Iowa (or VT)
5. VT (or Iowa)
6. UConn
7. LSU
8. Utah
9. MD

Other thoughts:

• LSU at 7 is only a function of trying to get them to avoid SC, since they would have a decent shot at playing them as either 8 or 9. But the committee may not be so generous.
• Iowa's ceiling is a 3, bumping Stanford to a 4. That gives us a path to the NC game but it comes at the price of likely playing UConn or LSU in the Elite 8. I think that's likely a bridge too far and I'd rather play VT than either of those teams (Both Fudd and Juhasz are back at Uconn, and Stanford will still be Stanford). I do think a universe exists where the committee decides to lean heavily on tourney results and that might get us to the #3 seed, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Caveat emptor.
• You could say 4 or 5 really doesn't matter for Iowa -- these seeds have to play each other and it'd be the same opponent in the Final 4 (SC). However, if we're 4, we're more likely to dodge multiple bullets in UConn/Stanford to get to the Final 4. If we're 5, we likely have a team that's very athletic and physical (a poor match-up) as the #3 seed in our Sweet 16 game. We'd still certainly fall to SC in the Final 4 (if we even advance that far) -- c'est la vie.
• If we somehow make it to the Final 4, Clark is a lock for all the NPOY awards and will likely make the all tourney team.

BONUS DRAMA: If LSU ends up as 9 and MD ends up as 8, it would certainly be quite the roller coaster for Mulkey and Reese. Reese would have to play her old school, followed by SC to make the Final 4. The committee just might realize the potential of LSU at 9, fighting for the chance to play SC in the Elite 8, as unfair, but there's already so much to consider, they might have to let that one go. They also may have no sympathy for her.

Update: A quick scan of the socials and various bracketologists yield some favorite results -- Autumn Johnson's NCAA power rankings and ESPN's power rankings both have us at #3. Not the same as seeding but good for momentum since the final order will come down to judgment calls. More people are bumping down IU a spot or two than I had predicted.

 

[huntermmm]

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I realize the AP Poll and Selection Committee have no real relation to each other, but I think the AP #2 ranking captures something that Bracketologists aren't: Iowa's run of beating Indiana, Maryland, and Ohio State in 8 days is really freaking impressive.

The Selection Committee this year gave significant weight to recent results in its second reveal. Iowa has the best recent results in the country. I think Iowa has a really good chance to get a 1 seed and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks as high as 3 overall.

 

[AMAYS]

I realize the AP Poll and Selection Committee have no real relation to each other, but I think the AP #2 ranking captures something that Bracketologists aren't: Iowa's run of beating Indiana, Maryland, and Ohio State in 8 days is really freaking impressive.

The Selection Committee this year gave significant weight to recent results in its second reveal. Iowa has the best recent results in the country. I think Iowa has a really good chance to get a 1 seed and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks as high as 3 overall.

Seed versus matchups is an interesting discussion. I hope to be placed in different regionals than SC, UCONN, and LSU, and would also like to avoid NC State and TENN. Stanford and VA Tech scare me less, though they are really good. Potentially being the 4th 1, with Va Tech the 2, or vice versa, would be good, so long as UCONN isn’t the 3.

 

[UpstreamHawkeye]

I hope others are scared of Iowa too.

 

[RossWB]

Fun to see all of the assists put together like this:

 

[hagarwood]

The new CBS Bracketology out today has Iowa as a 1 seed second overall. South Carolina, Indiana, and Stanford are 1 seeds. UConn has Azzi Fudd back and should they dominate Villanova in the Big East championship game, I think they should bump Stanford who just lost to Utah and Washington State. Va.Tech and LSU haven’t beat any top 10 teams.

 

[anon_salmfilsntd0b]

The new CBS Bracketology out today has Iowa as a 1 seed second overall. South Carolina, Indiana, and Stanford are 1 seeds. UConn has Azzi Fudd back and should they dominate Villanova in the Big East championship game, I think they should bump Stanford who just lost to Utah and Washington State. Va.Tech and LSU haven’t beat any top 10 teams.

Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, this update has us as #4 overall. Furthermore, they say that if UConn wins tonight (I'm sure they will as well), they'll place them at #6 overall otherwise #9 with an L.

 

[hagarwood]

Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, this update has us as #4 overall. Furthermore, they say that if UConn wins tonight (I'm sure they will as well), they'll place them at #6 overall otherwise #9 with an L.

Sorry, the part of the post after the first sentence was my thinking, not CBS bracketology.

 

[AMAYS]

Iowa's 6-loss # 2 ranking in the penultimate regular season AP poll is unprecedented. Is the Caitlin Clark effect causing Iowa to be over-ranked with 6 losses?

By my quick count based on clicking through AP poll archives and records (and I'm open to corrections), in the 40-year history of the NCAA WBB Tournament (no tourney in 2020), there has never been a team with either 5 or 6 losses to be ranked # 2 in the penultimate regular season AP poll. In fact, there has only been 1 team with 4 losses to be ranked # 2 in such poll (Stanford-2009). In the remaining 39 polls from the same point in the season, the # 2 AP team had 2 losses or less 34 times, and 3 losses five times.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Iowa's 6-loss # 2 ranking in the penultimate regular season AP poll is unprecedented. Is the Caitlin Clark effect causing Iowa to be over-ranked with 6 losses?

By my quick count based on clicking through AP poll archives and records (and I'm open to corrections), in the 40-year history of the NCAA WBB Tournament (no tourney in 2020), there has never been a team with either 5 or 6 losses to be ranked # 2 in the penultimate regular season AP poll. In fact, there has only been 1 team with 4 losses to be ranked # 2 in such poll (Stanford-2009). In the remaining 39 polls from the same point in the season, the # 2 AP team had 2 losses or less 34 times, and 3 losses five times.

I think it's mostly: 1) there's no elite team besides South Carolina this year, and 2) the 8 days proceeding the last AP poll.

The only other teams in the Top 10 with less than 4 losses this year are Indiana and LSU. LSU played a historically weak schedule and was upset by an unranked team in its conference tournament.

Indiana certainly has the 2nd best resume in the country, but lost to Iowa in the regular season finale, then blew a 24-point lead to an Ohio State team that Iowa blew out to win the Big Ten Tournament. I certainly think it's fair to conclude Iowa is slightly ahead of Indiana "right now".

Personally I think healthy UConn is the second best team in the country, but they only got healthy very recently and voters didn't get to factor in the win over Villanova.

 

[anon_salmfilsntd0b]

I think it's mostly: 1) there's no elite team besides South Carolina this year, and 2) the 8 days proceeding the last AP poll.

Personally I think healthy UConn is the second best team in the country, but they only got healthy very recently and voters didn't get to factor in the win over Villanova.

Indeed. I’ve said this before but the days of Baylor, ND, MD, Louisville (and now UConn / Stanford), just dominating their leagues are gone. When we made the Elite 8 in 2019, there was a clear distinction between teams 1-7 and then everyone else. We had no chance of beating any of them. We were the best of the rest of the field.

Fast forward to today, SC is the only elite team left. You’ve got great athletes everywhere. UCLA, Tennessee, Texas, LSU, Arizona, Indiana, Nova, Michigan, Utah, Oregon, VT Tech, Virginia, even ISU etc all capable of big upsets. A Baylor transfer is at Michigan State. Michigan has three 5 stars on its roster. The wealth is really spread out in a way that's very good for parity. When the season started, the CW was there would be 3 elite teams (SC, UConn, Stanford) and everyone else. It really is just SC now. Everyone else has proven to be vulnerable.

I agree that UConn with their players healthy is better than our team (and should really be #2 in the country), but their resume is not what it used to be 5 years ago and that's holding them back. At that time, UConn would likely still be undefeated even with all these injuries. They may have lost to another blue blood, but would certainly not have lost to St Johns and Marquette (in February nonetheless).

I'm sure people are looking to our H2H v UConn to evaluate final seeds (as they should, and I won't be surprised if they get a #1 seed over us) but one thing that's working in our favor is that we now have 3 more contributors off the bench that weren't really factors in that game. We only had 2 bench points.

As for IU, another thing to remember is they didn't look good against MSU, a bubble team, in the quarterfinals. They were down, by as much as 12, for the whole first half and never really pulled away comfortably. When you string together the Iowa L, the MSU shakiness and then the (really really bad) OSU collapse, I think it's fair for some people to question whether they're really #2 and/or just aren't playing their best. By contrast, our team is looking the best is has since these 5 athletes became starters.

 

[undersized_post]

Holmes seemed to have re-aggravated her knee injury during a hard fall in the MSU game. It's not getting a lot of coverage though. No idea whether the 10ish days until the NCAA first and second rounds will be enough for her to get back close to 100%. They are not #2 unless she is healthy.

 

[fish1hawk]

Any one have a list of of 2 loss teams and their best wins.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Any one have a list of of 2 loss teams and their best wins.

This year? The only 2 loss team is LSU (unless you count AP #21 UNLV). South Carolina is undefeated. Indiana has 3 losses. Every other P5 team has 4 losses or more.

LSU's best win is probably over unranked Tennessee at home.

 

[AMAYS]

When we made the Elite 8 in 2019, there was a clear distinction between teams 1-7 and then everyone else. We had no chance of beating any of them. We were the best of the rest of the field.

Spot on. The cliff after # 7 also made it easier to make the Elite 8. NC State as a 3 seed was ranked #s 20/18 in adjusted defensive/offensive efficiency. That was a good matchup for Iowa.

This year, the potential Sweet 16 match ups with the 3 and 4 seeds present a wide variety of teams, but to me, LSU is the team that we want to avoid more than any other of the current ESPN 3 and 4 seeds. The adjusted defensive/offensive efficiency numbers of the current ESPN 3 and 4 seeds are as follows:

#3s
Duke 3/70
LSU 5/6
ND 11/20 (plus Miles out?)
OSU 39/15 (won't play because of same conference)

#4s
UNC 10/72
UCLA 33/38
Texas 6/23
Nova 26/12

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Spot on. The cliff after # 7 also made it easier to make the Elite 8. NC State as a 3 seed was ranked #s 20/18 in adjusted defensive/offensive efficiency. That was a good matchup for Iowa.

This year, the potential Sweet 16 match ups with the 3 and 4 seeds present a wide variety of teams, but to me, LSU is the team that we want to avoid more than any other of the current ESPN 3 and 4 seeds. The adjusted defensive/offensive efficiency numbers of the current ESPN 3 and 4 seeds are as follows:

#3s
Duke 3/70
LSU 5/6
ND 11/20 (plus Miles out?)
OSU 39/15 (won't play because of same conference)

#4s
UNC 10/72
UCLA 33/38
Texas 6/23
Nova 26/12

Injuries are really going to cause some unfortunate matchups. Notre Dame without Miles and Mabrey isn't close to the same team that built the resume of a 3 seed. If Miles is out, whoever gets Notre Dame will have a very nice matchup relatively speaking.

UConn is the reverse of that. If healthy UConn is a 2 seed, it will be favored over the 1 seed (unless its South Carolina). That kind of happened to UConn and NC State last year.

FWIW, the 1 to our 2 (or 2 to our 1) will almost certainly be: UConn, Stanford, Virginia Tech, or Utah. They wouldn't match us with Indiana/Maryland and we shouldn't be 8th overall to match with South Carolina.

 

[Bishop1971]

I'm comfortably playing any of the fours. Notre Dame then Duke for the,threes if i got to choose.

 

[anon_salmfilsntd0b]

FWIW, the 1 to our 2 (or 2 to our 1) will almost certainly be: UConn, Stanford, Virginia Tech, or Utah. They wouldn't match us with Indiana/Maryland and we shouldn't be 8th overall to match with South Carolina.

I like our chances against any of these teams besides (a healthy) UConn. I’m not sure whether the fact that we played them already will factor in this decision but I know we have played UConn a number of times in tourneys over the years already. I can’t recall us ever playing Stanford.

MD played Stanford last year in the Sweet 16 tho so I think they’ll avoid that matchup. UConn may be more fair game for us since IU had to play them as well. MD also played UConn this season already so again, really fair game to pick whoever gets stuck with them.

 

[undersized_post]

(i just wanna make it out of the round of 32 this year)

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

(i just wanna make it out of the round of 32 this year)

I'm certainly worried about potential first and second round opponents, but I think an exit in the Sweet Sixteen would also be a disappointment all things considered.

 

[iamahawki]

I'm certainly worried about potential first and second round opponents, but I think an exit in the Sweet Sixteen would also be a disappointment all things considered.

Not too many leave Carver Hawkeye Arena with a W. 15-1 this season, I'd bank on that moving to 17-1 if we in attendance have a voice. After what I witnessed going in to and coming out of Minneapolis, the Hawks need take a back seat to no one.

 

[anon_salmfilsntd0b]

If we somehow actually make it to the Final 4 (not holding my breath, knock on wood, fingers crossed, yada yada), I think Bluder has a real shot at this.

Most of these are great candidates — lots of good storylines — but I’m not sure why Schaeffer is on here tbh.

 

[conn53victor]

I would love to see Bluder get the honor, but if Virginia Tech makes a good run, Terry Brooks is a good story.

 

[undersized_post]

My top 3 would be Roberts, Brooks, Moren.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

My top 3 would be Roberts, Brooks, Moren.

Maybe this is a hot take, but I think Green taking Illinois from dumpster fire to the NCAA Tournament in 1 season is more impressive than Moren taking a Sweet 16 team to a 1 seed.

I'm not trying to diminish what Moren has done, but Illinois won 23 games in the 3 seasons before Green arrived. They're 22-9 so far this year.

 

[undersized_post]

Maybe this is a hot take, but I think Green taking Illinois from dumpster fire to the NCAA Tournament in 1 season is more impressive than Moren taking a Sweet 16 team to a 1 seed.

I'm not trying to diminish what Moren has done, but Illinois won 23 games in the 3 seasons before Green arrived. They're 22-9 so far this year.

You issued your hot take so I will offer mine as well:
(hopefully in a friendly and non-combative manner haha)

COY is always a debate between the coach who takes a bad team and makes them a good team, versus a coach who takes a good team and makes them an elite team. Green obviously falls into the former category. Even so I think the COY buzz around her is a bit overhyped. Their only win over a top tier team was against us, by 4 points, at home, with them having an incredibly hot shooting night. And as high as our ceiling is, we are not exactly a program known for steering clear of a few bad losses every season... Other than that, Illinois's resume consists mostly of beating up on the lower half of the big ten which is more god awful than the bottom half of any P5 conference IMO. They are a projected 11-seed.

I think that step from good to elite is more difficult, and coaches who manage it (Indiana/VTech/Utah) are even more deserving of the award, especially if their programs didn't get the elite buzz in the preseason.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

You issued your hot take so I will offer mine as well:
(hopefully in a friendly and non-combative manner haha)

COY is always a debate between the coach who takes a bad team and makes them a good team, versus a coach who takes a good team and makes them an elite team. Green obviously falls into the former category. Even so I think the COY buzz around her is a bit overhyped. Their only win over a top tier team was against us, by 4 points, at home, with them having an incredibly hot shooting night. And as high as our ceiling is, we are not exactly a program known for steering clear of a few bad losses every season... Other than that, Illinois's resume consists mostly of beating up on the lower half of the big ten which is more god awful than the bottom half of any P5 conference IMO. They are a projected 11-seed.

I think that step from good to elite is more difficult, and coaches who manage it (Indiana/VTech/Utah) are even more deserving of the award, especially if their programs didn't get the elite buzz in the preseason.

I love friendly discussions. Sometimes I think they get mischaracterized as arguments when they're definitely not that.

In past years I think the jump from good to a 1 seed would have been enough for me to give the award to Roberts, Brooks, or Moren. But this year South Carolina is the only elite team imo. Maybe UConn would've been if not for injuries, but we'll never know.

I'd favor at least 5 teams from last year over this year's Indiana/Iowa/Utah/Virginia Tech. In some past years it would've been more than 5. I just don't think being a 1 seed this year is as big a jump as it used to be.

I agree that Illinois has largely beaten average or bad teams, but it's been 7 years since Illinois won more than 11 games in a season. For a long time now they haven't even beaten bad teams consistently.

 

[BGHAWK]

Why don't you two just compromise and go with Bluder? That was easy.

 

[brfhilltop]

The job Geno Auriemma did dealing with all the injuries should be COY.

 

[AMAYS]

. . . But this year South Carolina is the only elite team imo.

The data really support your opinion, and the greatness of this years South Carolina team. When you aggregate the last five years of Her HoopStats advanced ratings, this year’s South Carolina is the highest rated team, and no other team from this year makes the top 10.

 

[undersized_post]

The job Geno Auriemma did dealing with all the injuries should be COY.

Hell no.

 

[RossWB]

via @BraydonRoberts5

WHEN: Sunday, March 12th at 7 PM CT
TV: ESPN

For a second consecutive season Iowa is one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament. On the final day of the regular season, Iowa beat #2 Indiana 86-85 on a last-second three from Caitlin Clark. Iowa then beat Purdue in a competitive Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal, before beating 3 seed Maryland 89-84 in one of the best games played this season. And Iowa saved its best for last, dismantling Ohio State 105-72 in a game the Hawks led by 37 at halftime.

After a week to rest and recharge, the Hawks will learn who they will face in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night. Let’s dig in to see who that might be.

What We Know​

In most years, we have a very good idea who the #1 seeds will be in the women’s NCAA Tournament. That’s not necessarily true this year.

We do know that South Carolina will be the #1 overall seed. The Gamecocks are undefeated this year and look a step above everyone else.

Indiana will almost certainly be the #2 overall seed. The Hoosiers fell behind Iowa in the latest AP Poll, but they still have a better resume overall than Iowa with three fewer losses.

We also know that Iowa will be a 1 seed or a 2 seed. Bracketologists are unanimous on that point. Because of that, Iowa will host the first two rounds of the Tournament. First round games will either be on Friday, March 17 or Saturday, March 18. The second round game will be on Sunday, March 19 or Monday, March 20.

Last year, Iowa’s second round game against Creighton ended up on ABC in an early Sunday afternoon timeslot. The Hawks and South Carolina were the two teams prominently featured in the TV coverage. With the way the season has gone, Iowa and South Carolina are likely to be the two big feature teams again this year. Nothing is certain of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iowa get a Friday-Sunday schedule with the Sunday game being on ABC again if Iowa wins in the first round.

MORE HERE: https://iowa.rivals.com/news/iowa-wbb-preview-selection-sunday