Of course this run will help iowa recruit— but haven’t we already got girls committed for the next two classes try hat are not top 50 girls?
Hawkeye Women's Hoop season
- Thread starter IowaNiceHawk
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While watching the Baylor-UConn game, I'm struck by just how few three-point attempts Baylor takes. I remember noting that UConn outside of Bueckers wasn't a good three-point shooting team either.
We've talked a lot about how much of a size and athleticism disadvantage Iowa is at compared to schools like Baylor and UConn. Frankly I don't see that changing much in the next few years.
I do wonder, though, if three-point shooting can be an equalizer of sorts. A couple years ago, everyone thought Makenzie Meyer was one of the best three-point shooters in the conference. This year, Marshall, Warnock, and Clark shot better from three than Meyer ever did, and Martin wasn't that far off. We're one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and we do it at volume.
There's a reason the three-point shot has become so popular in the NBA--it's one of the most efficient shots in basketball if you shoot it well. Our defense and rebound need to be better moving forward, of course, but great outside shooting might be able to help us stay competitive against bigger, more athletic teams in the next few years.
We've talked a lot about how much of a size and athleticism disadvantage Iowa is at compared to schools like Baylor and UConn. Frankly I don't see that changing much in the next few years.
I do wonder, though, if three-point shooting can be an equalizer of sorts. A couple years ago, everyone thought Makenzie Meyer was one of the best three-point shooters in the conference. This year, Marshall, Warnock, and Clark shot better from three than Meyer ever did, and Martin wasn't that far off. We're one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and we do it at volume.
There's a reason the three-point shot has become so popular in the NBA--it's one of the most efficient shots in basketball if you shoot it well. Our defense and rebound need to be better moving forward, of course, but great outside shooting might be able to help us stay competitive against bigger, more athletic teams in the next few years.
Great observation. While UConn clearly controlled the game from start to finish, they were never able to pull away and Iowa stayed 7-13 points behind the entire second half mainly because of timely threes. I'm hopeful the next couple classes reduce Iowa's defensive and rebounding weaknesses.
Also, I had the sound off but it definitely looked like the Baylor player was hacked on their final shot attempt against UConn. Feels great to see Kim Mulkey angry.
Clark, Martin, and Taiwo also shot below average from three, whereas UConn made 2 more threes than it would normally average on 23 attempts. If Iowa makes 1 or 2 more in the first three and a half quarters and/or if UConn missed 1 or 2 more, that game could've been a lot different momentum wise.
As for the Baylor ending, we already know that refs tend to swallow their whistles late (see the Iowa State-Texas A&M ending). And players on both sides got away with a lot most of that game. I think the lesson there is don't rely on a foul call on a last possession. Draw up a play intending to score, because you probably aren't getting a call unless it's egregious.
Three point shooting only works if you are hitting. Miss and you give up the long rebounds which only gets you further in the hole if you can't perform on the defensive end.
What Iowa needs is to run their offense and not have to rely on the three late. Continue to feed the post and look for kickouts. Move the ball and exploit the double teams. It wasn't so much Meyer's shooting percentage as it was the number of assisted baskets. Doyle and Meyer had great rhythm and were mentally in step with each other. Reminded me a lot of Stockton/Hornaceck and you can add Czinano as Malone in that metaphor.
The offense worked because it was so efficient. We didn't turn the ball over and had high assists and took high percentage shots that fell more times than not.
We lost Olinger who was a defensive presence and one heck of a rebounder and Doyle who simply shut down opposing guards.
That paired with a less efficient offense plagued this team. The offense was able to recover late in the season, mainly because Martin, Warnock and Marshall found their confidence and were much more aggressive hunting shots and in the case of Martin/Warnock more agressive driving the ball.
But in the end we couldn't overcome the rebounding and defensive issues. Needed more O boards 2nd chance points. Ollinger was a machine with timely putbacks or drawing fouls crashing the offense glass. We also really missed that summer of conditioning and OTAs. But we return everyone and add some key pieces. I expect to see improvement across the board.
This year's offense was actually more efficient than either of the prior two years. The Elite 8 team averaged 111.2 points per 100 possessions. Last year's team averaged 106.9. This year's team averaged 114.6.
For turnovers, this year's team was actually the same as the Elite 8 team. Both averaged a turnover rate of 17.3%. Last year's team was at 18.8%.
In terms of rebounding, this year's team was in the middle. The Elite 8 team had a rebounding rate of 53.4%. Last year's team was at 49.3%. This year's team was at 50.0%.
The only thing this team is significantly worse at than the others is defense. The Elite 8 team gave up 95.2 points per 100 possessions. Last year's team was at 95.1. This year's team was at 106.3.
Analytics don't always paint the picture. I am willing to bet if you look at the numbers we gave up more defensive possessions, more offensive rebounds, more 2nd chance points and more points off turnovers than those teams.
You forgot to include turnovers with defense and rebounding. Jan Jensen was on the Iowa radio post game, and she was not happy with those last 5 minutes. 3 turnovers in 4 possessions. She said this will get addressed.
Lack of athleticism is a lot of the problem with the defense and rebounding. I would also say their reflexes are really slow, and they would rather reach then move their feet. I don't know what percent they would need to shoot from 3 to overcome the athleticism problem, I would say 60% or better and it would need to come from 3 or 4 players per game not 1 or 2. There is also the height disadvantage that affects rebounding and defense.
This is correct, as the defensive rebounding stats help demonstrate. Iowa ranked 236th this season in defensive rebounding rate. Iowa was 113 in 2019. That is a material difference.
Iowa's turnover rate was 78th out of 343 teams. Not great certainly, but far from the team's worst issue. I actually think turnovers forced (or steal rate) is a bigger issue. Iowa ranks 262 out of 343 teams for steal rate. I think that's an area where Iowa's lack of athleticism really shines. It also makes Iowa's offensive efficiency even more surprising given that Iowa gets comparatively fewer runout layups compared to most teams.
Got to have somebody that can shoot three pointers. Indiana didn't make a single one against Arizona, and towards the end none of their players were even willing to step out and attempt a three. Made it awfully congested inside the paint and easy to defend.
This year's team was better than last year's at defensive rebounding, but worse than the Elite 8 team (Elite 8= 69.4%, last year=65.3%, this year=66.6%). Those numbers don't really surprise me. Gustafson was an incredible rebounder. This year Warnock is fairly equivalent to Ollinger, but Czinano improved this year compared to last year, and Clark is a better rebounded than any other guard in the last 3 years.
I can't find any season statistics for 2nd chance points and points off turnovers. I'd be surprised if the points off turnovers was significantly different. 2nd chance points might be higher because Gustafson and then Ollinger were bigger block threats than Czinano and Warnock.
The only really noticeable difference I can find on defense is field goal percentage. Iowa's 2-point field goal percentage in the Elite 8 year and last year respectively was 44.7% and 44.8%. This year it was 50.0%. For three-pointers the Elite 8 year and last year respectively were 30.6% and 30.8%. This year it was 34.5%.
Last year's team turned the ball over more, was worse at rebounding, but still tracked fairly similar to the Elite 8 team defensively. This year's team is just bad at defense.
And Arizona made 9 3’s —often poorly contested — along with 4 extra baskets, pretty much the ball game. INdiana scrappy as usual, but not quite as”on” as in sweet 16 game..,,
Dorka Juhasz from Ohio State now in the transfer portal too. She was really good, and really hard for Iowa to stop, so that's good news in that it weakens Ohio State. They will still be good, but their ceiling is definitely lower now, barring a transfer that can replace her. Maryland also announced today all its seniors are coming back. They might be a pre-season Top 5 team given they return every top player in their rotation.
At the moment, Maryland, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan look like the top teams in the conference. The top should of the conference should be even better than last year given that each team returns a lot.
At the moment, Maryland, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan look like the top teams in the conference. The top should of the conference should be even better than last year given that each team returns a lot.
They don't have a natural replacement recruited for the post right now. Aaliyah Patty (6'3) has started quite a bit at the 4 so she can easily slide over, Iowa recruited her hard as a 5. Then there is the portal, OSU will always be attractive to someone.
I agree, Maryland and Indiana will be the favorites with several other teams in the next group including Iowa. Michigan will be interesting, losing Toyelle Wilson this week to SMU as their head coach may change some things there, their profile started to rise when she came to the staff from Baylor.
Charlie Creme has Iowa at #9 in his way-too-early Top 25 rankings. He also has Maryland-5, Indiana-7, Michigan-11, Iowa State-12, Ohio State-13, and Michigan State-21. Transfers announced through today are factored into those rankings.
Not sure I'd have Iowa that high yet, but it's very encouraging nonetheless. Iowa's schedule is going to be loaded with big games next year, even before any big non-conference or holiday tournament opponents that could be added.
https://www.espn.com/womens-college...arly-top-25-uconn-reigns-south-carolina-looms
Not sure I'd have Iowa that high yet, but it's very encouraging nonetheless. Iowa's schedule is going to be loaded with big games next year, even before any big non-conference or holiday tournament opponents that could be added.
https://www.espn.com/womens-college...arly-top-25-uconn-reigns-south-carolina-looms
We certainly improved alot thru the season and the tournaments. From unranked all season to the sweet 16. Two solid recruiting classes coming. A lot of teams would like to be us. Lisa gets it done.
Is there a possibility we have interest in her? I don't know if anyone else saw this but, Luka commented on Dorka Juhász's transfer post with little hawk-like emojis. Don't know if this means anything though
It wouldn't surprise me if the great player coach Jensen's son texted her about going after in the portal is Dorka Juhasz (Jan tweeted what he said).
I don't have any particular insight on interest. I do agree with jockos' assessment on Jan Jensen's tweet, though. I don't know of another player that would fit the criteria. I also thought it was interesting that she was tweeting about the transfer portal at all.
Adding Juhasz would create some questions for the roster. I would think she would start at the 4, but what would that mean for Warnock? She's too good not to start. We could move her to the 3 I suppose, but I don't think she's played a minute at 3 in her 2 years on campus. And who would backup the 4 and 5? Does Warnock move to the 4 when Juhasz is out? Does Juhasz move to the 5 when Czinano is out? How do Goodman, O'Grady, and Ediger factor into the rotation?
Juhasz is a very good player, though, and in general it's better to add good players to your roster and figure out the questions I've asked later. Juhasz is 6'4', very athletic, and a very good rebounder. Her size and rebounding would address two major issues for our team going forward, and she would probably make our defense better too. The only real questions I have with her are 1) free throw shooting (she's terrible), and 2) three-point shooting. She shot 25.4% from three as a freshman, 39.6% as a sophomore, and 20.3% as a junior. I'm not sure I can remember a player with variances that big with a similar volume.
Overall I'd love for Iowa to add Juhasz. Adding a player like her is how we make the jump from Final 4 darkhorse to Final 4 contender. I also think that Iowa should be a potentially attractive destination given that the future could be so promising.
Dorka had covid-19 during the season causing her to miss games outside OSU's shutdown too. Could explain the 3pt % this season but that FT% has always been a struggle for her. She also has two seasons of eligibility, it would complicate the frontcourt rotation for sure.
Hypothetical situation but if we did get Dorka Juhász as a transfer, what would our depth chart at each position look like? Would adding her make one of the incoming bigs want to transfer if playing time is a problem? Or would we just be really deep at the big positions?
Here's my best guess.
1- Clark---Meyer
2- Marshall/Martin---Marshall/Martin---Jensen/Affolter
3- Warnock---Martin/Taiwo---Jensen/Affolter---Wetering
4- Juhasz---Warnock/Ediger---Cook---Wetering
5- Czinano---Goodman/O'Grady
Transfers would depend on a few things, such as whether Czinano and Taiwo come back for an extra season after next year and who wins position battles.
Wetering seems like a prime transfer candidate to me as the 3 and 4 spot are loaded and she didn't get much playing time this year. She could make a big stride, though. Her athleticism would help with defense assuming she made a jump.
If Czinano and Taiwo come back for an extra season one of Jensen/Affolter and Goodman/O'Grady would also be transfer candidates because whoever loses out between them would be unlikely to play unless there are injuries.
I don't think Warnock plays the 3 unless Iowa is playing zone. Warnock is primarily a 3pt shooter with limits to the rest of her game on offense and defensive challanges. Her 3pt shooting makes her tough to take off the floor, but Martin has really improved in that area. If Iowa get Juhasz, I see that cutting into Warnocks minutes.
So far UCONN and UCLA are likely in the mix for Dorka. Maybe Caitlin is working on her...
The reasons she gives for leaving - Covid, missing family, & OSU post-season ban.
http://midwestsportsnetwork.com/two-time-all-big-tenforward-dorka-juhasz-enters-transfer-portal/
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Warnock is too good to play 10 minutes per game, which is all I would expect the backup 4 to get. If Juhasz were to transfer to Iowa, I think Warnock either gets 10-20 minutes at the 3 (and the rest at the 4) or she transfers.
Offensively, Marshall is already mostly a three-point shooter. She shoots a worse percentage from two (42.9%) than she does from three (47.1%). Marshall and Martin both only averaged 3 shot attempts per game from 2 anyway, so its not like them driving is a big component of our offense. Warnock is also a much better rebounder than either of them.
Defensively, I agree that Warnock might not be quick enough to guard opposing 3s in player to player. But Juhasz might be. Or at least her length would make things challenging for an opposing 3. In the 2-3 zone the 3 and 4 have the same defensive responsibilities, so that's not a huge issue. And in the triangle and 2 I think she could play the top of the triangle without much issue, and if not she already plays the corner of it. Clark and Marshall/Martin would be the player defenders in that scenario.
My analysis about who might transfer is strictly limited to basketball reasons (mostly playing time/future outlook). There are plenty of non-basketball reasons why a player might stay. Zion Sanders and Paula Valino Ramos are two recent examples of players who never played much, but nonetheless stayed with the team until they graduated.
That's an interesting rumor. On the one hand, adding another former Top 100 player to our team seems like a good thing. And I'd argue fitting another 2 or 3 into our rotation is easier than a 4 (see recent discussions).
But on the other hand, Feuerbach's freshman numbers at Iowa State are pretty underwhelming. She shot just 27.1% from three, averaged nearly 2 times more turnovers than assists, and nothing about her defensive numbers (though not the best indicator) point to her being a great defender.
I wouldn't hate adding her to the team, but I'm not sure she moves the needle much either.
I understand, but you obviously got my point as well.
Knowing Bluder rarely takes transfers I feel she would go with the one that fills our needs more and that would be Dorka, not Kylie
If we actually have an option between them you take Juhasz over Feurbach 10 times out of 10. She's a very good player already, and fills a ton of our biggest weaknesses as a team. But we don't have any evidence that Juhasz is actually considering Iowa. We've been considering the possibility hypothetically.
Feurbach, meanwhile, played for All Iowa Attack in AAU along with Clark and several other members of our team. Jockos has mentioned before that Coach Bluder likes to make sure that a transfer gels with the team. If several players on the team already get along well with Feurbach, then the coaches would already know she's a personality fit. She probably has more connection to Iowa than any other program besides Iowa State. Iowa as her destination makes a lot of sense.
That makes sense. The other thing to go along with that is usually with transfers you never legitimately know who they are considering until they commit to a school. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not getting any transfers as this is all pure speculation as you stated and the fact that we just typically don't go that route.
Oregon State could be a landing spot for Kylie Feuerbach. I know coach Jensen tried to recruit her out of high school but said in an interview earlier this year she was a Cyclone Legacy & her recruitment never expanded much further than Iowa State. So there is at least somewhat of relationship possibly with Iowa.
iowa has one scholly to give. Dorka would fill a need and allow for Goodman to redshirt if she wanted to. I think it also gives Iowa more flexibility in it's lineup and the option to go bigger lineup and not lose a perimeter threat. Adding another guard doesn't really make sense. There's not enough minutes to go around. If Dorka were to commit, Mckenna would move to a backup role backing up the 3 and 4 with Dorka starting at the 4 and backing up Monica at center. I think Mckenna would be okay with fewer minutes if it meant a better opportunity for team success.
If Juhasz were to come, Iowa would have the talent to compete for the BTT and could definetly see an EE of FF run next year. But I'm not sure if the staff is actually looking to bring in a transfer. Jan's tweet only said her son thinks Iowa should pursue a really talented transfer. Not sure that Bluder has the transfer portal on her mind. It's nice to imagine though because Dorka is exactly the type of player Iowa needs to be a Top 10 team.
If Juhasz were to come, Iowa would have the talent to compete for the BTT and could definetly see an EE of FF run next year. But I'm not sure if the staff is actually looking to bring in a transfer. Jan's tweet only said her son thinks Iowa should pursue a really talented transfer. Not sure that Bluder has the transfer portal on her mind. It's nice to imagine though because Dorka is exactly the type of player Iowa needs to be a Top 10 team.
Agree with Juhasz over Feurbach, but still like Feurbach. She can handle and drive the ball effectively, which, with the exception of Clark, describes no one on the current Iowa roster. Fennelly's offense, especially this year, may have been too dependent on the dribble, but that is a skill in short supply in the Iowa backcourt. Gabby gets stuck in no man's land when she drives, and has a hard time finishing. Taiwo is very timid and weak in traffic, though she showed some promising signs late in the year in terms of driving and finishing. Jensen also is not a driver. I haven't seen Taylor McCabe play, but she sounds like a shooter, not a driver. With no guards in the class of '21 [edit - treating Affolter as a 3/Wing], Feurbach would seem to be a useful addition, if there is anything to the CF rumors.
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