Preface: Iowa is still a huge underdog against UConn and the most likely result is still a double-digit loss.
That said, the events of the last couple days might signal that UConn isn't necessarily the juggernaut we usually expect to see. First, it played a weak conference schedule. Marquette (a 10 seed) was the only other Big East team to make the NCAA Tournament, and it lost in the first round. In the non-conference, its only notable games were against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas (its only loss), and each of those was fairly close. Arkansas got upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and Michigan destroyed Tennessee in the second round. South Carolina is the only opponent UConn faced that made the Sweet 16.
When Iowa lost to Maryland both times by 20 I just thought that was how this team would play against an NCAA Tournament 2 seed. I figured a game against UConn might be worse. But Maryland has absolutely steamrolled its competition so far, while other top teams (NC State, Louisville, and Texas A&M) have struggled. Maryland is playing like one of the best teams in the country right now, and both Indiana and Michigan also made the Sweet 16.
Maryland is also a terrible matchup for this Iowa team. The Terps play just as fast as Iowa does, play a high pressure defense meant to force turnovers, and their wings shoot the three incredibly well. Iowa has struggled this year with turnover-focused defenses, doesn't defend the three well, and usually uses pace to its advantage (which it can't against Maryland).
Outside of Bueckers, UConn doesn't actually shoot the three that well. Every other player is under 35%. UConn also prefers a slower pace--the highest scoring game it has played was the one it lost to Arkansas. And the Huskies don't press like Maryland does.
The one way Maryland and UConn are similar is that UConn also has taller, more athletic players that rebound well. That killed Iowa against Maryland, and could well kill Iowa again in this game.
If Iowa is going to keep this one close, Clark will have to play one of her best games. Czinano will have to score against bigger defenders. And Iowa will have to have a great shooting night. Defensively, Iowa will have to force UConn into a bunch of jump shots, and hope that 1) those shots don't fall at a high rate, and 2) that the players can grab enough rebounds to get stops. All of those things happening in combination is fairly unlikely, but the chances are better than I thought they were a couple days ago. This UConn team isn't unbeatable.
fivethirtyeight.com
uconnhuskies.com
