Yeah. We've already gotten Round 1 - now let's begin talking about Rounds 2 and 3.
On tap for tonight, the appetizer.
Then beginning late Thursday on through to Friday night...
QC NWS 1/10 AM narrative
Tonight...
Conceptually this lines up with a quick-hitting period of snow
that would have at least potential to briefly be heavy intensity,
especially where the 700 mb thermal gradient is tightest
(indicator of frontogenesis) and where the omega in the
dendritic growth zone is most pronounced. The 00Z HREF
indicates 20-30 percent of its members with one inch per hour
rates, albeit quickly moving, and mainly in the far northwest
forecast area. Incoming RAP runs have trended farther south,
however, with some of the heavier QPF placement. Also, cannot
rule out some brief loss of ice mainly south of U.S. Highway 34
in the CWA, although uncertain if it would still be
precipitating for any brief freezing drizzle late this evening
and early overnight.
Have forecast snow totals of 1-2 inches, isolated higher,
for mainly along/north of the general I-80 corridor. With the
likelihood of some temporary heavier rates and occurring after
dark, some slowed travel due to some snow covered roads and
visibility reductions is probable, but look to be brief enough
in duration and low enough in magnitude to as not warrant an
Advisory at this time.
Thursday night-Friday...
Another strong storm system will move into the area Friday as an
H5 wave swings negative across the area. WAA snow band will
form first to our south and into the area through 12z Friday.
This looks to reach up to the highway 30 corridor Friday am and
bring with it 3 to 5 inches of snow right before daybreak. This
will likely mean any commuters on I80 Friday will have a tough
go of it in the AM. The surface low will move to the NE into IL
and the wraparound/trowal will move across our eastern portions
of the CWA. This puts the heaviest snowfall axis from Memphis,
MO to near Rockford, IL.
As far as uncertainties, this is a much stronger wave then the
last one. There are questions about how far the warm sector is
pulled north. The 03z RAP was much further north with lows and
same with the NAM. This happened in the last event, however did
not completely play out. WPC has noted a shift to the NW as we
get closer to an event in the guidance this winter, so that has
me a little concerned. If this occurred, we would still get
snow, and a lot in some areas, but the heavy snow axis may
actually be further west between the QCA and IC again. Friday,
looks like a poor day for travel again and with temps below
freezing, snow removal will not be as good as the last system
with temps above freezing.
As far as amounts go, we have the potential to see double digits
again in the heavy snow axis. Unlike the last event, the spatial
coverage of heavy snow will be smaller - small shifts in the track
could greatly change how much snow people get. Current forecast
has areawide seeing 4 to 7 and in the heavy band, 8 to 10. WPC
is actually a little higher in the band having 8-13, and the GFS
has 12-16 or so. The ENS has 5-8 in the heavy band and the GEFS
has 10-14. So some spread there for sure. This is likely due to
the strength of the low and question about whether or not we see
some rain with a stronger warm sector push.
On tap for tonight, the appetizer.
Then beginning late Thursday on through to Friday night...
QC NWS 1/10 AM narrative
Tonight...
Conceptually this lines up with a quick-hitting period of snow
that would have at least potential to briefly be heavy intensity,
especially where the 700 mb thermal gradient is tightest
(indicator of frontogenesis) and where the omega in the
dendritic growth zone is most pronounced. The 00Z HREF
indicates 20-30 percent of its members with one inch per hour
rates, albeit quickly moving, and mainly in the far northwest
forecast area. Incoming RAP runs have trended farther south,
however, with some of the heavier QPF placement. Also, cannot
rule out some brief loss of ice mainly south of U.S. Highway 34
in the CWA, although uncertain if it would still be
precipitating for any brief freezing drizzle late this evening
and early overnight.
Have forecast snow totals of 1-2 inches, isolated higher,
for mainly along/north of the general I-80 corridor. With the
likelihood of some temporary heavier rates and occurring after
dark, some slowed travel due to some snow covered roads and
visibility reductions is probable, but look to be brief enough
in duration and low enough in magnitude to as not warrant an
Advisory at this time.
Thursday night-Friday...
Another strong storm system will move into the area Friday as an
H5 wave swings negative across the area. WAA snow band will
form first to our south and into the area through 12z Friday.
This looks to reach up to the highway 30 corridor Friday am and
bring with it 3 to 5 inches of snow right before daybreak. This
will likely mean any commuters on I80 Friday will have a tough
go of it in the AM. The surface low will move to the NE into IL
and the wraparound/trowal will move across our eastern portions
of the CWA. This puts the heaviest snowfall axis from Memphis,
MO to near Rockford, IL.
As far as uncertainties, this is a much stronger wave then the
last one. There are questions about how far the warm sector is
pulled north. The 03z RAP was much further north with lows and
same with the NAM. This happened in the last event, however did
not completely play out. WPC has noted a shift to the NW as we
get closer to an event in the guidance this winter, so that has
me a little concerned. If this occurred, we would still get
snow, and a lot in some areas, but the heavy snow axis may
actually be further west between the QCA and IC again. Friday,
looks like a poor day for travel again and with temps below
freezing, snow removal will not be as good as the last system
with temps above freezing.
As far as amounts go, we have the potential to see double digits
again in the heavy snow axis. Unlike the last event, the spatial
coverage of heavy snow will be smaller - small shifts in the track
could greatly change how much snow people get. Current forecast
has areawide seeing 4 to 7 and in the heavy band, 8 to 10. WPC
is actually a little higher in the band having 8-13, and the GFS
has 12-16 or so. The ENS has 5-8 in the heavy band and the GEFS
has 10-14. So some spread there for sure. This is likely due to
the strength of the low and question about whether or not we see
some rain with a stronger warm sector push.
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