Here We Go Again - winter storms #2 and #3 Wed-Fri 1/10 thru 1/12
- Thread starter bagdropper
- Start date
The fiance no pics just walked in w/ a bag of these
and a new bottle of this
We're going to be set for round 2.
In my line of work, it’s not the snow that’s the issue, it’s the cold. It is so hard on equipment. Here in NE Iowa they are talking 1-3” tonight, 5-7+ Friday through Saturday. Sounds like Carver may just get a little more emptierer. Hey jelly, how about a massive dick sando for your birthday!?!
I’ll be there shortly.The fiance no pics just walked in w/ a bag of these
and a new bottle of this
We're going to be set for round 2.
Never done edibles or in a beverage. How would one feel if one ate both of those brownies?The fiance no pics just walked in w/ a bag of these
and a new bottle of this
We're going to be set for round 2.
You'll become addicted. 100mgs is the point of addiction.
It's really coming down in central Iowa including some thundersnow. Think they underestimated tonight.
Just to be safe, I'll go for 150 mgs. I don't want to risk boredom.
Yup.....couldnt believe thunder and lightning on the west side of DSM.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 97,954
- 204,312
- 113
Walked in? Into your cardboard box in the hobo camp I presume? 🤔The fiance no pics just walked in w/ a bag of these
and a new bottle of this
We're going to be set for round 2.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 97,954
- 204,312
- 113
Sigh...they already have a Winter Storm Warning issued beginning at 9pm.
Active long term period with high impact weather through the
start of next work week is expected. Another strong winter storm
is expected to impact the area starting late tonight and lasting
into Saturday morning. While accumulating snow should drop off
after midnight Saturday morning, strong winds will lead to
significant blowing and drifting of snow. Near blizzard
conditions are expected across large portions of the area and a
blizzard warning may be needed for portions of the area later
Friday and into Saturday.
Storm Track:
In what seems to be deja vu for me in this string of shifts,
there remains large differences in low tracks between the
NAM/CAMs and the global models and their ensemble systems. This
is similar to the last system we just went through. In that
case, the NAM was too far north and the globals were a little
further south. Splitting the difference between the two seemed
to be the better of both solutions. While this is a stronger
system, the warm sector could pull further north as seems to
happen with these systems. That said, I still believe the NAM is
too far north. Main implications of these differences are how
far north rain/fzra gets and then cutting into snow totals
before the CAA kicks. I do believe that even if areas get less
snow, the winds on the back side later on Friday will lead to
winter storm impacts across the majority of the area. This is
regardless of storm track differences. So, still not a consensus
on storm track but still very impactful regardless.
Timing of major events:
There are three parts of this storm. The first is an overnight
WAA band of snow like the last one. This could drop 3 to 5
inches of snow across portions of the area. CAMs have convective
elements right on the edge of the rain shield towards the warm
sector. This suggests that we could see convective snow again.
The HREF does not have much from a 1 inch an hr rate, so less
confidence here than previous event. These convective elements
could lead to maybe some graupel of localized higher snowfall
rates. There may be a lull on heavier snow during the day as
rain/fzra mixes in. The second part of this system is the colder
air moving in along with the wraparound precip. This will lead
to higher snowratios and little more fluffy than earlier in the
storm. At the same time winds increase. Looking at model
soundings, there are some deep DGZs in the colder air. As winds
increase to near 50 mph gusts, expected considerable blowing and
drifting of snow. The main question is whether or not we can
break the top layer of snow that is frozen releasing the snow
beneath it to start flying around as well. If we can do that
along with snow falling we will likely have near whiteout and
blizzard conditions lasting overnight. Drifting of snow from the
wind could last well into Saturday morning making clearing of
roads difficult. At the same time temperatures drop to the point
where salt no longer works on roadways and the road crews need
to change to different solutions.
Snow Totals:
Snow totals will remain tricky especially along and south of
Interstate 80 after 12z Friday. Before 12z, I think our current
forecast of 2 to 5 inches looks like a good bet. All the
guidance has a range similar to this. After this, the warm
sector starts to get closer to the area. This where snow amts
may be different due to more rain/snow. Areas north of highway
30 are probably not going to see rain. After this, colder air
moves in and out ratios go to about 13:1. Our totals of 5-11 are
similar to all guidance save the GFS which is much higher. From
a probability perspective, the entire warning area has about an
80% chance or greater of seeing 4 inches total. 6 inch snow
total probs run from 60% to 80% across the warning area and over
8" is 40% to 60%. So not as high as the last storm when it comes
to 6 inches or more, but again, the blowing and drifting of snow
make for quite the impactful storm.
Active long term period with high impact weather through the
start of next work week is expected. Another strong winter storm
is expected to impact the area starting late tonight and lasting
into Saturday morning. While accumulating snow should drop off
after midnight Saturday morning, strong winds will lead to
significant blowing and drifting of snow. Near blizzard
conditions are expected across large portions of the area and a
blizzard warning may be needed for portions of the area later
Friday and into Saturday.
Storm Track:
In what seems to be deja vu for me in this string of shifts,
there remains large differences in low tracks between the
NAM/CAMs and the global models and their ensemble systems. This
is similar to the last system we just went through. In that
case, the NAM was too far north and the globals were a little
further south. Splitting the difference between the two seemed
to be the better of both solutions. While this is a stronger
system, the warm sector could pull further north as seems to
happen with these systems. That said, I still believe the NAM is
too far north. Main implications of these differences are how
far north rain/fzra gets and then cutting into snow totals
before the CAA kicks. I do believe that even if areas get less
snow, the winds on the back side later on Friday will lead to
winter storm impacts across the majority of the area. This is
regardless of storm track differences. So, still not a consensus
on storm track but still very impactful regardless.
Timing of major events:
There are three parts of this storm. The first is an overnight
WAA band of snow like the last one. This could drop 3 to 5
inches of snow across portions of the area. CAMs have convective
elements right on the edge of the rain shield towards the warm
sector. This suggests that we could see convective snow again.
The HREF does not have much from a 1 inch an hr rate, so less
confidence here than previous event. These convective elements
could lead to maybe some graupel of localized higher snowfall
rates. There may be a lull on heavier snow during the day as
rain/fzra mixes in. The second part of this system is the colder
air moving in along with the wraparound precip. This will lead
to higher snowratios and little more fluffy than earlier in the
storm. At the same time winds increase. Looking at model
soundings, there are some deep DGZs in the colder air. As winds
increase to near 50 mph gusts, expected considerable blowing and
drifting of snow. The main question is whether or not we can
break the top layer of snow that is frozen releasing the snow
beneath it to start flying around as well. If we can do that
along with snow falling we will likely have near whiteout and
blizzard conditions lasting overnight. Drifting of snow from the
wind could last well into Saturday morning making clearing of
roads difficult. At the same time temperatures drop to the point
where salt no longer works on roadways and the road crews need
to change to different solutions.
Snow Totals:
Snow totals will remain tricky especially along and south of
Interstate 80 after 12z Friday. Before 12z, I think our current
forecast of 2 to 5 inches looks like a good bet. All the
guidance has a range similar to this. After this, the warm
sector starts to get closer to the area. This where snow amts
may be different due to more rain/snow. Areas north of highway
30 are probably not going to see rain. After this, colder air
moves in and out ratios go to about 13:1. Our totals of 5-11 are
similar to all guidance save the GFS which is much higher. From
a probability perspective, the entire warning area has about an
80% chance or greater of seeing 4 inches total. 6 inch snow
total probs run from 60% to 80% across the warning area and over
8" is 40% to 60%. So not as high as the last storm when it comes
to 6 inches or more, but again, the blowing and drifting of snow
make for quite the impactful storm.
How many millies are in the bottle?The fiance no pics just walked in w/ a bag of these
and a new bottle of this
We're going to be set for round 2.
None in central Iowa today (but schools were closed Tuesday and Wednesday), but we had a snow squall and I shoveled last night in the 4th quarter of the women's game and it had stopped. Then this morning had to shovel again since it looked just like it did last night. Maybe about an inch each time, so not bad at all, just didn't want to get it all packed down ahead of the big one tonight/tomorrow. I believe my wife's school district only has 2 snow days built in and those were used already.
KCRG just goes generic and says 4-8" statewide or viewer area with locally higher amounts. Takes the guess work out I suppose.
Their 5-10" prediction of Tuesday's storm across the entire viewing area isn't aging well.
The last few years, they've lost me as a weather info source. It's as if they're not even trying any more.
I was just watching, and it was the same as the last storm. Along with you, I go to the NWS and other sources for more "real" foercasts.
KCCI and WHO do a good job here in Des Moines. They usually show expected snow totals elsewhere in the state. You might want to check their websites…*
*edited to note they both say you're getting 9 inches (that's what she said).
Des Moines Weather News – Iowa Weather Updates – KCCI 8 News
KCCI 8 News is your weather source for the latest forecast, radar, alerts, closings and video forecast. Visit KCCI 8 News today.
www.kcci.com
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Time to rename this thread to ***** Official winter storm Geri mega thread *****. I'd start it, but I'm in Arizona. It's just beginning here today with wind gusts to 35-40 mph this afternoon...
This storm seems to be a little more volatile at this point. It should round into firmer shape today. But, yeah, lots of sites are giving themselves a lot of wiggle room.
IC is doing good work on the roads, but, they just plowed me in for the 3rd time. A front end loader just scraped the street clean, and deposited a ridge a foot and a half tall in my driveway.
Some of the street lights are blanketed in snow. You just kind of have to guess as to if you have a green light.
Some of the street lights are blanketed in snow. You just kind of have to guess as to if you have a green light.
Frankie ****ed up last time and missed it. Not this time. Buckle down boyzzzzz
25 years ago my car was almost run over (with me and my now wife in it) by one of those front end loaders. I was a block away and that f*cker threw it in reverse and kept coming at me. I flashed my brights over and over, threw my own car in reverse, and backed through and out of the way at the 4 way stop at the intersection of Clinton and Court. Closest (to my knowledge) to dying I have ever been.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
Chicago suburbs checking in. This is shaping up to be a big one for us. My forecast just keeps going up, up, up. Right now they are saying 14 inches. Yesterday it was 8. If it holds up it will be the biggest storm we’ve had since 2015 and might crack the top 10 all time storms.
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