After Tuesday, all of us are now acutely aware of the national bias against this team. However, the narrative people are perpetrating in the national media (including Kirk Herbstreit) and on this board is if Iowa goes undefeated, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. Well boys and girls, I’m here to tell you that just isn’t true. I can paint several scenarios after seeing that debacle of an initial playoff rating that could leave Iowa fans in the cold, even after a 13-0 perfect season. Buckle your seatbelts.
Scenario #1: Big Ten Armageddon
1. Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Northwestern all continue to lose.
Looking at Iowa’s resume, they would have a win over a three loss Michigan team (ranked between 10-15) and a three loss Big Ten team (Northwestern or Wisconsin) ranked 20-25. The committee would definitely rank Clemson, the SEC champ, an undefeated or one loss Big 12 champ, and either a one loss Pac 12 or one loss Notre Dame team over Iowa. Hell they might even rank Memphis over us if they win out. Under that scenario, Memphis would have 3-4 Top 25 wins and we would only have 2, neither of which would be impressive.
Scenario #2: The Utah/Notre Dame Blitzkrieg
If Notre Dame wins out, they would have wins over five bowl eligible teams, three to four of which will be ranked (USC, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Navy) and their only loss to #1 Clemson. In addition, if Utah wins out, it will have wins against potentially seven bowl eligible teams. Throw in the SEC champ, Clemson, and an undefeated Big 12 champ, and Iowa might finish as low as 6th in the final rankings. Of course this depends on who their Big 10 champion win is against. If tOSU or MSU is undefeated, it lowers the likelihood of this scenario. However, if the Big Ten east team already has at least 1 loss, watch out.
Scenario #3: SEC Bias on Steroids
What happens if Mississippi State wins out and faces Florida in the SEC championship game? Further, what happens if Florida wins? Now you have a one loss Florida SEC champ and a one loss Alabama who is already ranked 4th in CFP ranking. Does the committee take both teams? I would have said no before Tuesday. Now I’m not so sure. I’m not sure if the committee has an SEC bias (look where Florida is ranked). But they absolutely have an Alabama bias. If two SEC teams get in and you have Clemson, an undefeated Big 12 team, and a one loss Notre Dame team, Iowa again could again be looking at a final ranking of 5th or 6th. It also depends on what kind of Big Ten East team Iowa faces and how the big three wins (NW, Wisc, Pitt) play over the course of the season. The weaker our wins, the more likely we get passed over.
What’s an Iowa fan to do?
Well, technically there is nothing we can do as fans. The better question is who do we root for, besides Iowa of course? Well there are two huge games this week that could have all of us breathe a lot easier. The first is Pitt/Notre Dame. I cannot stress enough how huge this win would be for Iowa. First, it would knock out Notre Dame for good. Second, it would solidify Pitt into the Top 25. This one event alone might move us up 2-3 spots in the rating. If there is one upset to root for this week, this is the one.
The second game is LSU/Alabama. We need Alabama to go away in the worst way. We have two shots. LSU is the first one. The second is next week when Alabama visits Mississippi State.
In addition, there are four Big Ten teams we need to root for every week: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State & Ohio State. The first two to bolster our existing wins and the latter two to insure we play an undefeated BT East winner in the Big Ten Championship game.
The other rooting interests we need to have is for the Big 12 to cannibalize each other, Utah & Stanford to lose, and Memphis to go down.
Conclusion
In closing, does a lot have to happen for us to get left out? Yeah, probably. Are these longshot scenarios? No. But it is not as farfetched as people want you to believe. Of course, all of this is a moot point if we lose to Indiana on Saturday. Go Hawks!
Scenario #1: Big Ten Armageddon
1. Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Northwestern all continue to lose.
- Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is difficult (Notre Dame, @Duke, Louisville, Miami). They realistically could lose two or three of those games and end up with a 8-4 or 7-5 record
- Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is @Maryland, Northwestern, and @Minnesota. It’s more manageable than Pitt’s but they could conceivably lose 1-2 games ending at 9-3 or 8-4. With either of those records, there is a strong chance they don’t end up in the top 25.
- Northwestern’s remaining schedule is Penn St, Purdue, @Wisconsin, and Illinois. I could see them losing 2 of those games. If they finish 9-3, they will finish in the top 25. If it’s 8-4? They won’t.
- One scenario has MSU finishing 2-2 with a loss to tOSU and either Nebraska or Penn State. (Think Nebraska can’t beat MSU? Vegas does. MSU is a 5 ½ point favorite over Nebraska. As a point of comparison, Vegas has Alabama a 6 ½ favorite over #2 ranked LSU. Anyone think LSU can’t beat Alabama? Didn’t think so.) In addition, Michigan beats tOSU the last game of the season and represents the Big Ten East. There are a lot of other ways that Iowa faces a weakened Big Ten East foe besides this one.
Looking at Iowa’s resume, they would have a win over a three loss Michigan team (ranked between 10-15) and a three loss Big Ten team (Northwestern or Wisconsin) ranked 20-25. The committee would definitely rank Clemson, the SEC champ, an undefeated or one loss Big 12 champ, and either a one loss Pac 12 or one loss Notre Dame team over Iowa. Hell they might even rank Memphis over us if they win out. Under that scenario, Memphis would have 3-4 Top 25 wins and we would only have 2, neither of which would be impressive.
Scenario #2: The Utah/Notre Dame Blitzkrieg
If Notre Dame wins out, they would have wins over five bowl eligible teams, three to four of which will be ranked (USC, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Navy) and their only loss to #1 Clemson. In addition, if Utah wins out, it will have wins against potentially seven bowl eligible teams. Throw in the SEC champ, Clemson, and an undefeated Big 12 champ, and Iowa might finish as low as 6th in the final rankings. Of course this depends on who their Big 10 champion win is against. If tOSU or MSU is undefeated, it lowers the likelihood of this scenario. However, if the Big Ten east team already has at least 1 loss, watch out.
Scenario #3: SEC Bias on Steroids
What happens if Mississippi State wins out and faces Florida in the SEC championship game? Further, what happens if Florida wins? Now you have a one loss Florida SEC champ and a one loss Alabama who is already ranked 4th in CFP ranking. Does the committee take both teams? I would have said no before Tuesday. Now I’m not so sure. I’m not sure if the committee has an SEC bias (look where Florida is ranked). But they absolutely have an Alabama bias. If two SEC teams get in and you have Clemson, an undefeated Big 12 team, and a one loss Notre Dame team, Iowa again could again be looking at a final ranking of 5th or 6th. It also depends on what kind of Big Ten East team Iowa faces and how the big three wins (NW, Wisc, Pitt) play over the course of the season. The weaker our wins, the more likely we get passed over.
What’s an Iowa fan to do?
Well, technically there is nothing we can do as fans. The better question is who do we root for, besides Iowa of course? Well there are two huge games this week that could have all of us breathe a lot easier. The first is Pitt/Notre Dame. I cannot stress enough how huge this win would be for Iowa. First, it would knock out Notre Dame for good. Second, it would solidify Pitt into the Top 25. This one event alone might move us up 2-3 spots in the rating. If there is one upset to root for this week, this is the one.
The second game is LSU/Alabama. We need Alabama to go away in the worst way. We have two shots. LSU is the first one. The second is next week when Alabama visits Mississippi State.
In addition, there are four Big Ten teams we need to root for every week: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State & Ohio State. The first two to bolster our existing wins and the latter two to insure we play an undefeated BT East winner in the Big Ten Championship game.
The other rooting interests we need to have is for the Big 12 to cannibalize each other, Utah & Stanford to lose, and Memphis to go down.
Conclusion
In closing, does a lot have to happen for us to get left out? Yeah, probably. Are these longshot scenarios? No. But it is not as farfetched as people want you to believe. Of course, all of this is a moot point if we lose to Indiana on Saturday. Go Hawks!
