How a 13-0 Iowa team misses the Playoff
- Thread starter Teldar
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No way....NO WAY an undefeated B1G champion gets left out. You can come up with all the scenarios you want. The main factor in this is MONEY. The B1G draws the most money of any conference. They control 100 million TV sets. no other conference comes close. If there is any doubt an undefeated B1G team is going to get left out, one phone call from Jim Delaney will change that.
How is a 4 team playoff any worse than an 8 team playoff when the criteria is the problem?
There are 5 power conferences and (somehow) Notre Dame.
The teams included in a playoff (no matter if there are 4 or 16) will still be determined by the opinions of a selected few people.
There are 5 power conferences and (somehow) Notre Dame.
The teams included in a playoff (no matter if there are 4 or 16) will still be determined by the opinions of a selected few people.
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You all are crazy if you think an undefeated Iowa team is a lock if the worst case scenario runs out. No one has responded to who they think would be left out if LSU, Baylor, Clemson, Notre Dame and Iowa in out. Now I know this is a HIGHLY unlikely scenario (considering we are prob <20% to win out) but if it happened Iowa would be left out for sure. You think we would jump ND after they are ranked as high as they are and we beat a team top 10 team on a neutral site and they beat a top 10 team on the road? No way. Now if Pitt or Florida St wins this weekend all we need to do is win out. Let's go Pitt bros!
That's not even difficult. To answer first, it would either be Baylor or Notre Dame.
You'd have four P5 teams that went undefeated, but only three of them won a conference championship game. So those three are in.
Now, you can decide if a 12-0 Baylor is better than an 11-1 Notre Dame. I wouldn't care, because even in this scenario, a 13-0 Iowa is NOT GETTING LEFT OUT. Stop the fretting folks, it won't happen.
Who do you think ND will be playing in a conference championship game this year? What do you think they will be favored by?
Just to point this out, there is no way that this can happen, unless you meant Ole Miss and not Mississippi State. Mississippi State and Alabama play next weekend. So, one of them can't win out. If MSU loses, they have 2 conference losses (already lost to A&M) and are unlikely to make the SEC championship, if Bama loses, they have 2 losses and don't go to the SEC championship (already lost to Ole Miss).
Beat Indiana. It's the only important game at this point.
I do not care about anything else this week.
I do not care about anything else this week.
Baylor or Notre Dame would be bumped before Iowa. Notre Dame probably the most likely to be bumped because they won't have won a conference championship.
And really, Notre Dame's best qualification is a loss. Beating Stanford, at best, puts them on equal footing with Iowa and Iowa will have beaten a top 5 team on neutral ground.
This is such a naive and lazy post and it's wrong. You have so many assumptions in your short comment the biggest of which is that tOSU or MSU goes undefeated. There is no guarantee we play an undefeated Big Ten East champ. As a matter of fact, according to ESPN (I know), tOSU's odds of going undefeated is 34.6%. MSU's is 6.6%. Here's the link:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/probWinOut
Not only is it possible, it's probable that we play against a one or two loss Big Ten East winner. If that happens, our top 5 marquee win turns into a Top 15 decent win. Wake up and smell the coffee. I laid out realistic scenarios that if they happen, we get left out in the cold. You don't have to like it. I don't like it. It pisses me off.
You can claim that the probability of those scenarios are small. And they might be. But the probability is not zero. So stop saying if we finish undefeated, we are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, because we're not.
Ok, so the probability OSU or Michigan St. go undefeated is not likely. Then tell me how probable is it that Clemson, LSU, any Big 12 team and Notre Dame all go undefeated the rest of the way? About zero? Wake up son. An undefeated B1G 10 conference champion will NOT be left out of the playoffs.
No, no, it doesn't matter. An undefeated Big Ten champion will not be left out, no way. Especially since tOSU just won the playoff last year. If that happened, which it won't, they might as well throw the whole system out. It MIGHT be possible if there were 4 other non-defeated teams from power 5 conferences (or an undefeated ND) but there isn't and won't be. The Big Ten West has as good of OOC wins as anybody with wins against Duke, Stanford and Pitt.
I would have said that it's technically impossible for a 13-0 Iowa to get left out a few days ago, but now I feel slightly less confident about that. If we beat an undefeated MSU or OSU for the B1G title, I think we are automatically in. But if we face a 2 loss Michigan, that's where it gets iffy. Also keep in mind that Penn State is still technically alive in the East (they still play MSU and Mich and would need OSU to lose twice, say to both Mich and MSU).
To me the nightmare scenario involves Alabama winning out and LSU only losing a close game to them (say, in OT). Then you have 1 loss Bama as SEC champ and 1 loss LSU still kicking around, plus a 1 loss Pac 12 champ (either Stanford or Utah) to go with an undefeated Big 12 champ and Clemson. Maybe throw in Notre Dame if they beat Stanford and Utah wins the Pac-12. That's where media bias and narrative will all come into play.
To me the nightmare scenario involves Alabama winning out and LSU only losing a close game to them (say, in OT). Then you have 1 loss Bama as SEC champ and 1 loss LSU still kicking around, plus a 1 loss Pac 12 champ (either Stanford or Utah) to go with an undefeated Big 12 champ and Clemson. Maybe throw in Notre Dame if they beat Stanford and Utah wins the Pac-12. That's where media bias and narrative will all come into play.
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Still, the odds are very long on all of this playing out and I'm actually not worried but I do think the OP is correct.
I completely disagree with this. Baylor is about to go on a Oklahoma, @TCU, @Okla st stretch. They are already ahead of us having playing a much weaker schedule to this point. I think you are putting too much emphasis on the conference championship game. One that could potentially be much less impressive than beating un undefeated TCU or Okla st on the road. Notre Dame is already several spots ahead of us. If they like them now, they are going to love them after they beat Stanford. (who i do think is way overrated, but still). So now the narrative is terrible schedule undefeated B10 champ vs only loss at the #1 rated team by 2 points NOTRE DAME. I think there would be an excellent chance we lose that battle.
Still, the odds are very long on all of this playing out and I'm actually not worried but I do think the OP is correct.
P.S. OSU odds of winning the conference are 55.1%, the 34.6 you stated is including the post season. Iowa's is 23.4%, which is not that bad.
No UNDEFEATED power 5 conference champion will be left out in favor of a one loss non-conference champion.
So let's take a doomsday scenario. LSU, Clemson, & Pick your undefeated B12 team all win out. 13-0 Iowa is in regardless of opponent. Notre Dame/Stanford winner and Utah have already lost.
Give it up Teldar. Take off your tinfoil hat.
So let's take a doomsday scenario. LSU, Clemson, & Pick your undefeated B12 team all win out. 13-0 Iowa is in regardless of opponent. Notre Dame/Stanford winner and Utah have already lost.
Give it up Teldar. Take off your tinfoil hat.
Really? "No UNDEFEATED power 5 conference champion will be left out in favor of a one loss non-conference champion" You sir, are ignorant. Look at last year's final college football rankings:
1 Alabama 12-1
2. Oregon 12-1
3 Florida St. 13-0
It happened last year. Do you have any other statements not rooted in fact and data that you want to claim?
I agree with the statement that an unbeaten power 5 conference will ever be left out. About the only way it would happen for all 5 power conferences to finish unbeaten. In this case, I would imagine the Big 12 being left out, as they have no championship game.
However, I am pretty sure this will never happen.
However, I am pretty sure this will never happen.
Umm... Florida State wasn't left out. You do realize there are 4 teams now, right?
The only way an undefeated power 5 champ could possibly get left out is if all 5 conferences champs are undefeated or maybe an undefeated Notre Dame.
Also, legitimate question, is there a division with three better OOC wins than Duke, Stanford and Pitt?
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How's the "I absolutely think Ne can't beat MSU" working out for you?You lost me here...
Think Nebraska can’t beat MSU? Vegas does. MSU is a 5 ½ point favorite over Nebraska.
That is a betting line. I couldn't possibly care less what the Vegas line is. Vegas doesn't set foot on the field.
I absolutely think Ne can't beat MSU.
We'll know soon.
Calling me stupid, ey? The point I was making is the CFP committee has a track record of rating 1 loss conference champs above undefeated conference champs. There are five power conferences. There is a real chance that each of their champions will be either undefeated or have one loss. You are the stupid one if you don't think the committee could take an undefeated Clemson, a 1 loss Alabama, an undefeated Big 12, and a 1 loss Stanford/Utah ahead of us. That's not even counting a one loss ND. Get your head out of the sand.
Some people on this board are thinking too hard. OSU had absolutely (supposedly) no chance last year after the first poll came out and look what happened. Of course, a huge part of them sliding into the 4th playoff spot was their TOTAL destruction of Wisky in the CCG. A lot of it depends on how the team is playing at the time of the last poll (of course). It's really all about a team improving as the year goes along (a knack for Urban teams). If you guys stay undefeated and win the BIG CCG, you'll be in the playoffs.
Of course they could have a 1 loss team ahead of an undefeated P5 team in their rankings. It will happen every week until the final poll is released. But that was not your original post. You were posting that an undefeated B1G conference champion could very possibly be left out because you fear a 1 loss ND team and other 1 loss teams getting in ahead of Iowa. For that, you are a moron. As I said before, there is NO CHANCE an undefeated B1G champion gets left out. If Iowa goes 13-0 they will jump into the top 4 regardless how ND does. At best, there will be 3 undefeated P5 champions (B1G, ACC, Big 12). If all 3 go undefeated and ACC and Big12 are in, are you telling us that there are 2 other teams that will be ahead of Iowa? There is no way a 1 loss ND or 1 loss (possibly 2 loss) PAC12 get in over an undefeated B1G champion.
Why are people so quick to call people names on this board? I am making a fact based data driven analysis. You are resorting to emotions. Where is your data to support your theory? You have provided none except to say "here is NO CHANCE an undefeated B1G champion gets left out." Wow. How insightful. Where is your data to support your argument? Oh, I forgot. It's easier to just call people morons than to actually defend a position with data.
Where exactly is your proof to show an undefeated B1G champion would get left out? You want proof the B1G is held in high regard? Ok. Last year a 1-loss OSU went from #6 to #4 after the CCG. They passed a 1-loss TCU and a 1-loss Baylor to make the playoffs. And this year you think an undefeated B1G champ would get left out? Where is your proof of that? You started this thread with your worry and concern Iowa would get left out using faulty logic. I was simply pointing out your failure.
Sure, Iowa could get left out.
All it would take now is for tosu to stumble and Iowa playing either msu or meechigan in the title game. Or, worse yet, psu. Committee loves 'bama. SEC 1 loss team goes before an Iowa team in that scenario.
Need to hope for the good 1 loss team to pick up a second loss over the next 3 weeks. Also, hope that the big xii pounds on each other. If okie state or baylor runs the table they will take a spot.
All it would take now is for tosu to stumble and Iowa playing either msu or meechigan in the title game. Or, worse yet, psu. Committee loves 'bama. SEC 1 loss team goes before an Iowa team in that scenario.
Need to hope for the good 1 loss team to pick up a second loss over the next 3 weeks. Also, hope that the big xii pounds on each other. If okie state or baylor runs the table they will take a spot.
If Iowa and ND win out explain how IA will jump them? I'm not so positive that a win over #3 Ohio St. is that much better than a win over #10(?) Stanford. Maybe it would be, but I'm certainly rooting for OK and Baylor losses.
Seriously? An undefeated P5 conference champion with wins over an undefeated OSU in the title game and wins against 3 or 4 other bowl eligible teams would get left out for an 11-1 independent team that did not win a conference and has less quality wins? What am I missing here? Do I need to bring in the fact that the BG is still the most influential conference with over 100 million TV sets and the largest markets? They bring more money to the table than any other conference. If there is any doubt the undefeated B1G champ will get left out, 1 phone call from Jim Delaney will fix that.
What you are missing is you are assuming Ohio State is undefeated and wins the Big Ten East. I have said numerous times that if that happens, Iowa will definitely get in. However, there is a real risk that either a) Ohio State is not undefeated, or b) Ohio State isn't even the Big Ten Championship. Before last week, you probably would have guaranteed a Michigan State victory over Nebraska. What if Michigan wins the Big Ten East with a 10-2 record? We beat them and they finish ranked outside the top 15? What then?
Ok, I am assuming OSU remains unbeaten until the CCG. Aren't you making a lot of assumptions in every one of your posts? Bottom line is simple. Even if OSU stumbles and we play a 1 loss or even a 2 loss team in the CCG, if we go 13-0 we are in the playoffs. No assumptions there. An undefeated P5 conference winner will not be left out this year or any other year unless every P5 conference winner is undefeated.
Just checking to see if the dead horse has come back to life. But doubt it will as it is still getting beaten.
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