To get into the NC2A tourney in March?
9 wins, 17 overall? Might do it............What say you ?
Go Hawks
9 wins, 17 overall? Might do it............What say you ?
Go Hawks
How many Big10 wins does this team need?
- Thread starter IowaNiceHawk
- Start date
Way, way more than 9. I think we need 12 wins in conference to make the dance. 11 would give us 19 wins (assuming a win tonight) and I think we would need a win or 2 in the B1G tournament to dance.
Big10 schedule will be loaded, so SOS won't be a problem.
Have to get some Quality wins and 9 could do it, I think.
Thanks Suter. Go Hawks
11, would have been 10 if they hadn't lost to UNO. Plus a win in the B1G tournament.
So whether we beat Purdue or Rutgers for one of our 11 wins, it would not have mattered, as long as we had beaten UNO?
Making the assumption that they beat the paid opponent tonight, I would say anywhere from 10-12 in the B1G regular season and 1-3 in the BTT for an at large NCAA bid.
If they get a couple of wins over the teams that end up being the top dogs in the league( most likely wisky/indy/pu) they'd be able to slip in on the lower end of that total.
I think it's very unlikely that they could get an at large bid with less than 19 wins total, even if 2 or 3 of them were over the top 4 teams in the league.
If they get a couple of wins over the teams that end up being the top dogs in the league( most likely wisky/indy/pu) they'd be able to slip in on the lower end of that total.
I think it's very unlikely that they could get an at large bid with less than 19 wins total, even if 2 or 3 of them were over the top 4 teams in the league.
The RPI should work itself out, and it isn't the only factor in the Selection Committee's choices. If we could get to 11-7 in the Big Ten, I know conference records aren't supposed to matter, but, 11-7 in the Big Ten?!?
Along with that would be the storyline of young team makes good.
I think we have to have 20 wins to have a chance. So, need one in the Big Ten Tournament. Or better still, two. At 21-12 I don't think we get left out, no way.
Except, and we haven't talked about this, but the reason the RPI will work out is all about what other teams do. We can't have Mid-Major regular season successes lose in their conference tournaments. And. We need a field that includes may teams with slightly less appeal than us.
So, I'm rooting for Iowa, and for all the schools who should get in easily to have great seasons and beat up on some mid-level schools all year long.
We need, in other words, schools at our level to get knocked out.
Anyway, the fact that we can even talk about this now is kind of a success story after what appeared to be a team going nowhere, isn't it!
Here's an interesting site: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
Notice the teams around us. We could do better than those guys. Maybe. You have to look around to find us, under "more bubble teams". They are saying we're a 5% chance and looking at our final record being 16-15. Should be fun to watch that change.
Along with that would be the storyline of young team makes good.
I think we have to have 20 wins to have a chance. So, need one in the Big Ten Tournament. Or better still, two. At 21-12 I don't think we get left out, no way.
Except, and we haven't talked about this, but the reason the RPI will work out is all about what other teams do. We can't have Mid-Major regular season successes lose in their conference tournaments. And. We need a field that includes may teams with slightly less appeal than us.
So, I'm rooting for Iowa, and for all the schools who should get in easily to have great seasons and beat up on some mid-level schools all year long.
We need, in other words, schools at our level to get knocked out.
Anyway, the fact that we can even talk about this now is kind of a success story after what appeared to be a team going nowhere, isn't it!
Here's an interesting site: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
Notice the teams around us. We could do better than those guys. Maybe. You have to look around to find us, under "more bubble teams". They are saying we're a 5% chance and looking at our final record being 16-15. Should be fun to watch that change.
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12 plus no flame out in the BTT.
Our B1G schedule, while manageable, only has the big dogs like Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, and Michigan only once so we need to snag a couple of those. Otherwise our B1G record wont do much for our RPI. Getting 1 of 2 against Purdue would go a long ways as well.
Our B1G schedule, while manageable, only has the big dogs like Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, and Michigan only once so we need to snag a couple of those. Otherwise our B1G record wont do much for our RPI. Getting 1 of 2 against Purdue would go a long ways as well.
12 wins and a BTT win if at least 2 of those is vs. Wisconsin/Purdue/Indiana/MSU.
13+ (including BTT) if we don't knock of any off those 4.
13+ (including BTT) if we don't knock of any off those 4.
To get into the NC2A tourney in March?
9 wins, 17 overall? Might do it............What say you ?
Go Hawks
10-11 and a couple wins in the BTT tourney
or
12 to get in without any tourney drama.
They're capable. Iowa is this years equivalent of last year's WI team.
I think people are really overestimating how quickly our RPI will come up. In 2012-13, when we ended up going to the NIT we had a really weak non-conf schedule and went into B10 play with an RPI around 80. We're at 161 now and going to drop again after tonight. Also, between playing Rutgers and Nebraska twice and Penn St, there's five more games against teams with 100+ RPI's. It's going to take a lot of work in the B10 to even get on the bubble, even going 11-7 leaves us with an RPI of roughly 70 which isn't going to get it done.
The most likely scenario is 4 wins in the Big ten tourney. If the team continues to improve they might have a shot? I think it would take 12 wins otherwise and some would need to be upsets. The Big ten is down this your based on preseason play so it will be harder to move the rpi with the teams only beating on each other.
Depends on who the wins are against. If the teams they beat are all "bottom" dwellers and they get to 10 wins, I still think they are on the outside looking in. Their best win is ISU right now. If ISU goes on and gets hot and finishes top 2 in Big 12 and is ranked near top 10, then Iowa will have a "good win" and it will off set the NOU loss. But if ISU tanks it, Iowa does not have a "quality" win yet.
If they beat everyone below them and "knock off" a Wisky or Indiana then it might get interesting.
12 wins (in)
11 wins (bubble need to win 2 in BTT)
10 wins (outside bubble need 3 in BTT)
9 wins (get to finals of BTT)
8 wins (Got to win the whole thing)
If they beat everyone below them and "knock off" a Wisky or Indiana then it might get interesting.
12 wins (in)
11 wins (bubble need to win 2 in BTT)
10 wins (outside bubble need 3 in BTT)
9 wins (get to finals of BTT)
8 wins (Got to win the whole thing)
But if ISU gets hot and competes for the Big 12 and is ranked. Then our RPI will go up everytime they win. Also same for UNI and North Dakota. Also if UVA, Seton Hall, Memphis continue to win, it will make our SOS better an improve our RPI.
This group does have to "upset" I would say at 2 teams in the Big Ten and not lose to anyone outside of the RPI 200. IF they do that and get to 11 wins, they will be on the bubble heading into BTT.
In order to get to "X" amount of wins, for every quality win that would help our RPI there would have to then be a non-quality loss to negate it. You can't get to 12 wins by beating the Purdue's and Indiana's, only to lose to the Penn State's and Nebraska's. If we're going to get the "magic number" of wins needed to make the tournament by picking up QUALITY wins, we'll need to end up with 14 or 15 wins because we can't afford too many more bad losses. The NCAA's are just going to be a longshot this year. We need to face the facts.
NCAA's are a long shot for sure, but if we go 12-6 and finish in the Top 5-6 of the B1G, I believe that will be good enough to get a bid.
ISU isn't going to be anywhere close to competing for a B12 title and UNI best case scenario is maybe a top 75 win. The RPI is fairly predictable how it will play out at this point. We are so far down in the rankings right now, that it's going to take an amazing B10 run to dig out of this hole.
Next 2 games could tell the tale....@Purdue and vs Michigan
If Iowa can find a way to win both, then the NCAA's become a realistic goal
If Iowa can find a way to win both, then the NCAA's become a realistic goal
This whole discussion about needing 11 or 12 wins to get in the tourney shows what a bad scheduler Fran is. On the women's side, Lisa Bluder does a much better job of playing the pre-conference RPI game.
Do you remember 2012 when our non-conf SOS was something like 300+. I believe ours this year was 164 which isn't great, but also isn't that bad. We have seen this before with Fran. He believes the conference is tough enough and with a "young team" he wants to get them in situations where they can challenged but also win a fair amount of games. I have only one problem with this years schedule and it was Delaware state. We should not be playing a MEAC school.
RPI ranks:
Had to play because of tournament Obligations:
Savannah St 318 (Emerald Classic)
UTRGV 313 (Emerald Classic)
Virginia 16 (Emerald Classic)
Memphis 126 (Emerald Classic)
Seton Hall 32 (Gavitt Tip)
Notre Dame 51 (ACC Challenge)
Northern Iowa 101 (Hy-Vee Challenge)
University scheduled:
Kennesaw State 313
Iowa State 115
Nebraska Omaha 88
Stetson 296
North Dakota 257
Delaware State 297
So we had to play 2 of our lowest opponents because of the Emerald classic (but in turn we played our toughest opponent as well). Iowa should never play a MEAC school ever again. We need to find teams that are in the 150-200 range if needed. If they have an RPI of 200+ you need to not schedule them.
DavenportHawk8 - You make a lot of good points, but the "had too play because of tournament obligations" is just another way of saying that Fran agreed to play in a third-rate tourney, knowing it is a third-rate tourney. The conference does not make Iowa play in such tourneys. Also, the "we have seen this before with Fran" means we should learn from our mistakes. A terrible non-conference schedule kept Iowa out of the tourney in 2013 with a 9-9 record. Similarly, even if Iowa could get to 10-8 this year, the non-conference schedule will keep the Hawks out of the tourney.
Beat one of Virginia, Seton Hall, ND, or Memphis and beat UNO and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Perhaps, but Iowa's schedule is still very weak. Our Ken Pom non-conference strength of schedule is 262. That's just a self-inflicted wound that Fran chooses to endure.
God you guys have such low expectations and are so darn conservative you make me puke..
Who cares about the NIT or 3 or 4 wins in the BTT
The only thing that matters is winning the Big Ten and getting into the NCAA.
I sincerely hope that our players are not in the mode of thought that you guys are in. If there is anyone on that bench that's doesn't think they can win every game and go to the NCAA I would not want them on my team and send them home.
Who cares about the NIT or 3 or 4 wins in the BTT
The only thing that matters is winning the Big Ten and getting into the NCAA.
I sincerely hope that our players are not in the mode of thought that you guys are in. If there is anyone on that bench that's doesn't think they can win every game and go to the NCAA I would not want them on my team and send them home.
Tough to disagree with this. While I don't expect Iowa to win the conference, I am not counting them out until it is mathematically impossible. It is one of the downsides to being a numbers guy.
Just go out, get better and try to win every game. Finish top 5 in the conference and you are in. Iowa can finish top 5. I have a feeling Iowa will be a dangerous team by the end of the season.
Scheduling wasn't the problem this year at all. Beat UNO at home and one of the other good games and we are in good shape. You can't go 0-4 vs the best teams.
The RPI should work itself out, and it isn't the only factor in the Selection Committee's choices. If we could get to 11-7 in the Big Ten, I know conference records aren't supposed to matter, but, 11-7 in the Big Ten?!?
Along with that would be the storyline of young team makes good.
I think we have to have 20 wins to have a chance. So, need one in the Big Ten Tournament. Or better still, two. At 21-12 I don't think we get left out, no way.
Except, and we haven't talked about this, but the reason the RPI will work out is all about what other teams do. We can't have Mid-Major regular season successes lose in their conference tournaments. And. We need a field that includes may teams with slightly less appeal than us.
So, I'm rooting for Iowa, and for all the schools who should get in easily to have great seasons and beat up on some mid-level schools all year long.
We need, in other words, schools at our level to get knocked out.
Anyway, the fact that we can even talk about this now is kind of a success story after what appeared to be a team going nowhere, isn't it!
Here's an interesting site: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
Notice the teams around us. We could do better than those guys. Maybe. You have to look around to find us, under "more bubble teams". They are saying we're a 5% chance and looking at our final record being 16-15. Should be fun to watch that change.
I say we need 12 more wins. So, either 11-7 and 1 BTT win or 10-8 and 2 BTT wins will get us in. That's 20 wins. We should make it with that
We are up to 7% now. That'll be jumping to 20% Wednesday evening.
I say we need 12 more wins. So, either 11-7 and 1 BTT win or 10-8 and 2 BTT wins will get us in. That's 20 wins. We should make it with that
We are up to 7% now. That'll be jumping to 20% Wednesday evening.
Glad someone looked at that chart. It is a great reminder of how things change during the season.
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