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How many Big10 wins does this team need?

AMAYS said:
DavenportHawk8 - You make a lot of good points, but the "had too play because of tournament obligations" is just another way of saying that Fran agreed to play in a third-rate tourney, knowing it is a third-rate tourney. The conference does not make Iowa play in such tourneys. Also, the "we have seen this before with Fran" means we should learn from our mistakes. A terrible non-conference schedule kept Iowa out of the tourney in 2013 with a 9-9 record. Similarly, even if Iowa could get to 10-8 this year, the non-conference schedule will keep the Hawks out of the tourney.
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I mean that tournament gave us a shot vs UVA and Memphis/Providence. I would risk playing 2 "crappy" teams if it gave me a shot at those 3 teams.

We could of gone to the Alaska Shootout and played a bunch of no namers and won it. But what would that of done.

Indiana has a lower non-conf RPI than us. Their only tough games were vs KU and UNC and Butler. All other games were against bad teams. They played like 6-7 teams 300+ in the RPI. That's not good.

All Iowa has to do is win 11 games and they will be on the Bubble come BTT. They get 9 chances at home which you would think they would be able to win at least 6-7 of those. Then they have to win some games on the road, which for a young team can be a daunting task.
 
33hawkfan said:
According to RPI forecast, probably at least 12 to even be in the discussion. That would still leaves us with an RPI of 59, which is very borderline.
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The RPI is garbage, every year.........10 Big wins and IOWA is in.
Make Book on it............:D...........Ok and maybe a couple in DC
 
DavenportHawk8 said:
I mean that tournament gave us a shot vs UVA and Memphis/Providence. I would risk playing 2 "crappy" teams if it gave me a shot at those 3 teams.
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I knew the answer to this at one time, but have forgotten. Why do some of these tournaments require the big name teams to play home games against the crappy opponents who then don't actually attend the on-site tournament even if they happen to win? Guessing it has something to do with money.

If the major conference teams insisted that those crappy teams be teams that historically fall in the 100-200 range in the rankings, they would seem capable of ending this. If they really wanted to end it, that is.
 
wneff said:
I knew the answer to this at one time, but have forgotten. Why do some of these tournaments require the big name teams to play home games against the crappy opponents who then don't actually attend the on-site tournament even if they happen to win? Guessing it has something to do with money.

If the major conference teams insisted that those crappy teams be teams that historically fall in the 100-200 range in the rankings, they would seem capable of ending this. If they really wanted to end it, that is.
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Well its because no one in their right mind would schedule those teams. Those small schools get to be apart of the tournament and play some Power 5 teams and they collect a check from the tournament. I mean Kennesaw State and Delaware State play their first 12 games of the year on the road because they want to collect that $$ to fund their program. Some of these schools do not have football or they are small school football programs that can't fund their athletic department.

I have no problem with playing 1-2 teams like that in the non-conf because you need an "easy" game for your players. Iowa had to play those two in the tournament and it sucks, but oh well. If Iowa beats Memphis, Seton Hall, or UNO, this is meaningless. We didn't win the games that we needed to in non-conf, but if we win 12 in the Big Ten, we are in. 11 wins and we are on the bubble.

I mean Indiana played seriously 6 teams RPI 300+. They had a 3 game non-conf schedule (KU, UNC, and Butler). The rest of the non-conf was a joke and if they somehow struggle in Big Ten Play,
 
Iowa's RPI is in the 70s right now. With only 8 wins in the non-con and a loss to Omaha (that's an RPI killer) they are going to need 12 wins in the Big Ten just to get to 20 wins. Big Ten is pretty wide open this year so will be plenty of chances for good wins, even at Nebraska. Wins against Minnesota, Rutgers will be tough to come by but will be great wins. ANY win with the youngest team in the Big Ten will be a great win this year. Just hope they get enough to get to the NIT. Although seeing what Gophers are doing this year with a few transfers and a top level recruit, would've been nice if Fran could've gotten a few transfers added to this year's team to along with Cook. Would be a tourney team for sure.
 
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B1G is down this year. Iowa needs at least 11 wins in conference and BTT win. 9-9 won't cut it when only 3 teams are in the top 25 right now. At this point iowa has only a handful of opportunities to get quality wins. Need to beat Ind, Wiscy and PU all at least once. Not impossible but not liking our chances.
 
UNO is RPI 83 right now. If they continue to win and possibly move up it might not be that bad of a loss. The committee looks at "bad losses" once the team is above RPI 150+. IF it is 200+ then its a REALLY bad loss.

Memphis right now is our worst loss (RPI 137). So that is not good if UNO and Memphis tank it, then we could possibly end up with 2 bad losses. But if ISU gets hot or at least contends for the Big 12, that could off set one of those. Iowa has plenty of chances to get "Big W's" in conference. Need to get one of the top teams at home this year.

Anyone see where Lundardi had 9 teams in his tournament projections? Seems like a lot to me. I don't think the league is that strong, but maybe.
 
ryno99 said:
Iowa's RPI is in the 70s right now. With only 8 wins in the non-con and a loss to Omaha (that's an RPI killer) they are going to need 12 wins in the Big Ten just to get to 20 wins. Big Ten is pretty wide open this year so will be plenty of chances for good wins, even at Nebraska. Wins against Minnesota, Rutgers will be tough to come by but will be great wins. ANY win with the youngest team in the Big Ten will be a great win this year. Just hope they get enough to get to the NIT. Although seeing what Gophers are doing this year with a few transfers and a top level recruit, would've been nice if Fran could've gotten a few transfers added to this year's team to along with Cook. Would be a tourney team for sure.
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Our RPI is not in 70's, we are in the mid 100's right now.
 
DavenportHawk8 said:
KenPom has Iowa at 67
RPI has at 170

Seems like a LARGE difference. I can guarantee you as Iowa plays this season W or L that number goes up.
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Sure but our RPI isn't close to 70 now, and it's going to take about 11 conference wins to get it that high.
 
33hawkfan said:
Sure but our RPI isn't close to 70 now, and it's going to take about 11 conference wins to get it that high.
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I must have saw the KenPom ranking then. That RPI is HORRIBLE. There is no chance Iowa makes the tourney unless they have the best season in school history. If they would win 12 games in B1G that wold put them around 50-60 in RPI and that's bubble for sure. Our poor play in non-con early killed any hope of tourney dreams.
 
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The RPI will go up no matter what. Iowa loses at Purdue tonight, guarantee our RPI goes up tomorrow. Its all based on who you played and W/L at home or away. Its a very skewed system. Hell the MWC has their teams schedule non-div 1 teams so that way they get a W and it doesn't count in the RPI system.
 
Legend12 said:
Last year tOSU was 20-13 and 11-7 in Big Ten play. They went to the NIT.
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Last year Michigan State got a 2 seed with 29 wins but lost in the first round.

Maryland 24 wins, Indiana 25 & Purdue 26 all got 5 seeds prior to NCAA tourney.

Iowa had a 20-12 record and Wisconsin 19-12 going into the tourney with both a 7 seed.

Michigan got an 11 seed with a 23-11 record heading to the NCAA, go figure.

20 wins won't necessarily guarantee an NCAA bid in a power five conference.

58 of the 64 teams in the NCAA last year had 20 to 29 wins prior to their first tournament game.
 
N.Legend said:
And who might those 9 wins be against? The most you can play Penn State and Nebraska is four time's
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For any of the 351 NCAA Div I teams to get into the tournament they would have to win their conference tournament. 17 wins won't get any team into the tournament otherwise.
 
I don't know how many wins we will need. I don't know which teams comprise the lower tier in our conference. I think most of us have stated it's pretty wide open this year.

What I do know is a good handful of teams, in mid major conferences, are presently above us in the rpi. I'm pretty sure the Ivy League won't get 3 at large picks, and just a rough count of the teams above us, that don't have a realistic chance to receive a bid, or maintain as"lofty" an rpi, that actually have losing records, by tournament time is somewhere around 90 teams. And that's not to say we couldn't move above many more than that.

If we do continue to play well, improve throughout the season, and finish in the top 5-6 in the conference, the committee will be capable of determining that we either do or don't pass the eyeball test... it's not like it's all mathematics that are the predominant factors used. These guys actually see enough games, the numbers only confirm an opinion.

My estimation is that a lot of games yet to be played are going to be won or lost by a point, a rebound, a defensive stop, a referee's call, etc. so many variables....I hope for an enjoyable season, that we play up to our full potential, a little luck, and a pretty good feeling as the selection show begins.
 
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