First off, you have 70%(35% on each side) that have their decision made no matter who is running and no matter what happened. A person in their party could have been found guilty for killing, cooking, and eating babies and they wouldn't care. The are voting for their party. Nothing you can say will dissuade them.
Then you have the middle ground. These are the 25% of the people who base their vote on the exiting party. If the economy is good, and they're okay with the policies, they will vote for the incumbent party. Otherwise they're voting for the other side.
Last, you have the 5% who listens to what the politicians say, they have their own thoughts, and they vote for who most closely embodies those thoughts. These people are roundly ridiculed because they didn't vote for one of the two main parties,and are informed that, "they have wasted their vote."
Regardless of who these people vote for, one of the two main parties wins, and doesn't change the policies of the government, no matter how hard they railed against the incumbent party.
Then you have the middle ground. These are the 25% of the people who base their vote on the exiting party. If the economy is good, and they're okay with the policies, they will vote for the incumbent party. Otherwise they're voting for the other side.
Last, you have the 5% who listens to what the politicians say, they have their own thoughts, and they vote for who most closely embodies those thoughts. These people are roundly ridiculed because they didn't vote for one of the two main parties,and are informed that, "they have wasted their vote."
Regardless of who these people vote for, one of the two main parties wins, and doesn't change the policies of the government, no matter how hard they railed against the incumbent party.