Hurricane season has arrived....

The Tradition

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An area of disturbed weather that AccuWeather meteorologists were closely scrutinizing all week over the waters south of Mexico became the first named storm of the 2022 East Pacific hurricane season -- Agatha -- early Saturday morning. Although Agatha is a small tropical storm, forecasters expect the storm to strengthen to a hurricane as it turns toward the Mexican coast into early week.

Within six hours of being designated Tropical Depression One-E by the National Hurricane Center late Friday, Tropical Storm Agatha formed early Saturday morning amid a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the East Pacific. Winds within the center of the storm stood at 50 mph (85 km/h) at 1 p.m. CDT Saturday, up from 40 mph (64 km/h) during the morning hours.

Forecasters say the system will remain in an environment conducive for continued strengthening up until it moves onshore in Mexico. By Sunday night, Agatha is forecast to reach Category 1 hurricane strength (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph, or 119-153 km/h).

Sea-surface temperatures in the area are more than sufficient for continued strengthening, and as of Saturday, the ocean water in this part of the Pacific Ocean was around 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). At a minimum, a sea-surface temperature of 79-80 F (26-27 C) is needed for the formation and maintenance of tropical systems. In addition, wind shear in the area is very light across this part of the basin, which will also contribute to the strengthening of the storm.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the leftover energy from Agatha as it crosses Mexico and enters the Bay of Campeche during the first days of June. Here, it could redevelop into the Atlantic basin's first named storm.


 
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The Tradition

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I'm sorry GOHOX. I spoke too soon. Florida people shouldn't need to care about this one either.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the leftover energy from Agatha as it crosses Mexico and enters the Bay of Campeche during the first days of June. Here, it could redevelop into the Atlantic basin's first named storm.
 
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The Tradition

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The first named storm came three days before ***THE OFFICIAL*** start of hurricane season.

Waiting for the usual suspects to blame it on climate change....
 
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noleclone2

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AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the leftover energy from Agatha as it crosses Mexico and enters the Bay of Campeche during the first days of June. Here, it could redevelop into the Atlantic basin's first named storm.
Trad fixin to bust out his sharpie!
 
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bdg8

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giphy.gif
 
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lucas80

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And people in Iowa care because?
Well, I don't like it when people die and stuff gets wrecked. It's just too bad that people like the OP don't see any strings about human behavior connecting the changing climate and it's increased impact.
Although, It will be interesting to watch this year as Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and every other Republican red state governor go all Dickens and stand there with their little bowls asking for Joe Biden to ladle out more federal money.
 

the24fan

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The first named storm came three days before ***THE OFFICIAL*** start of hurricane season.

Waiting for the usual suspects to blame it on climate change....
Even those who believe in climate change don’t think every single hurricane is a result of global warming ! However, it’s the rising number and strength of those storms and their effect that is the argument.
Rising ocean temperatures are rocket fuel for hurricanes and that is exactly what’s happening in the worlds oceans and in the Gulf of Mexico….
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Although, It will be interesting to watch this year as Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and every other Republican red state governor go all Dickens and stand there with their little bowls asking for Joe Biden to ladle out more federal money.
Why wouldn’t they…people in Florida and Texas pay Federal taxes just like every state.
 

lucas80

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Why wouldn’t they…people in Florida and Texas pay Federal taxes just like every state.
1. Climate change deniers. No attempt to mitigate.
2. Small government when it suits them. Or, when taxpayers from other states with legitimate needs ask for help.
3. Loud mouthed douche bags that refuse to govern civilly. More concerned with headlines and running for POTUS in 2024 then doing their current job. Guys like Larry Hogan govern as responsible Tepublicans without 1/10th of the drama.
 

The Tradition

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A 1004 mb low pressure is centered just north of Cozumel, Mexico
near 21N87W at 0900 UTC, moving slowly northeastward. This low
is embedded within a broad area of low pressure that is located
near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery
shows disorganized clusters of scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection within this area of broad low
pressure over the waters north of 15N and west of 79W. Strong
east to southeast winds were highlighted by overnight ASCAT data
passes over this part of the Caribbean. Despite strong upper-
level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for some of these areas later today. This
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

 

The Tradition

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The arrival of the first organized tropical system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is imminent, AccuWeather meteorologists say, and it will be a prolific rainmaker across South Florida -- regardless of whether it's a named tropical storm or a depression when it arrives.

Prior to the weekend, a tropical depression will form and begin to send torrential rain into South Florida. The system, currently a tropical rainstorm, will organize slowly and is likely to become Tropical Storm Alex over the waters surrounding the Florida Peninsula or, perhaps, right over the Sunshine State itself.

The tropical rainstorm, which AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking all week, was dubbed Invest 91L on Wednesday by the National Hurricane Center. The government agency may begin to issue tropical storm watches for areas in the path of the storm and send a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the brewing system later Thursday.

AccuWeather forecasters noted that satellite imagery showed the system was looking much better organized late on Thursday morning.

The system continued showing signs of development Thursday in a zone of tropical moisture over the northwestern Caribbean, near the eastern shoreline of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the moisture is leftover from the former Hurricane Agatha, which struck southwestern Mexico on Monday. A similar setup occurred in 2020 when Tropical Storm Amanda moved inland over Guatemala and diminished but help to spawn Tropical Storm Cristobal that later hit the central Gulf Coast of the United States.

Wind shear will likely affect how quickly the system strengthens as it moves across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. These stiff winds in the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere may remain strong enough to prevent the quick development of the tropical system into Friday, he noted.

Should wind shear drop off over the Gulf, which is anticipated starting on Friday, waters are more than warm enough to spur on more progressive development, prior to the system crossing the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Water temperatures in the path of the storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are well into the 80s F. Weighing these conditions, the system is likely to reach southwestern Florida as Tropical Depression One or, possibly, as Tropical Storm Alex.

There is a chance that the tropical rainstorm could strengthen into a full-blown, named tropical storm while over the Florida Peninsula. A system strengthening into a tropical storm over land is a rare occurrence but something that happened as recently as last year.

A similar situation occurred with Claudette in 2021. The tropical depression became the third tropical storm of the season over swampy Louisiana lands last June. Since the Florida Peninsula is surrounded by warm water on three sides, this is a possibility with the first Atlantic tropical system of 2022.

Wind shear is likely to remain strong enough to cause much of the shield of rain to be skewed to the eastern side of the storm. This means that the first showers will spread over the Florida Keys and South Florida on Thursday night with the heaviest rain to push northeastward on Friday or nearly 24 hours ahead of the arrival of the storm center.

The rain will be beneficial in some South Florida communities due to abnormally dry to drought conditions that have unfolded this spring. However, too much rain will fall in many locations and is likely to cause flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Forecasters say motorists and pedestrians should be prepared to take alternative routes in locations that are prone to flooding during times of heavy rain.

Much of the zone from the Keys to the Everglades and the Miami area is likely to receive a general 8-12 inches of rain with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches. Much of that rain may fall in 24 hours and is more than enough to trigger street and highway flooding.

 

An Iowa fan

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Yea, tomorrow will not be a good beach day to say the least. Happy hours on Friday might get curtailed some. Plus it will be tough to be out in a lanai at your home.
Mother Nature is always the boss.
 

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