Exactly. But this thread was built on what happens in this one tournament. Asinine.
If we don't go on a run in the NCAAs, it's time
- Thread starter Nagarunja
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Exactly. But this thread was built on what happens in this one tournament. Asinine.
Exactly. But this thread was built on what happens in this one tournament. Asinine.
Not quite true. I think the thread is based on this year being the "last chance" after 13 years of NCAA tournament failures.
We know you don't care if Iowa ever wins a game, but the OP does. His opinion is every bit as valid as yours.
Barta may be gone no matter our one and done NCAA appearance this season.
Based mostly on shooting luck? WTF? So you're saying the programs that have a solid track record in the ncaa tourney are just lucky? That is one of the dumbest things I've heard on here in awhile, and that is really saying something.
If you think shooting a basketball consistently well is a matter of luck you might want to find another sport to follow because you seem to be clueless about this one.
Some new ADs want their own guys when they take over. People are focusing on Ferentz and son if this were to happen but Fran's future could be just as up in the air. If a new AD came in and this was a typical university, I could see end game planning for Ferentz and some stipulations for Fran such as some more success and no more temper tantrums. Who knows though.
You forgot;
The first half 2-Foul Rule - as in never tries to avoid falling into that trap, even if only for the betterment of team in any certain game.
and
Seems to have an irrational hatred of timeouts.
I was being facetious in my post and I agree luck plays maybe the biggest factor in postseason success. The narrative is Fran will never win because his recent teams don't play defense, which I think is false. Iowa 2006 and Virginia 2018 are examples of that.
Fran emphasizes turnovers and offensive rebounds as ways to bolster the offense. Iowa shot something like 20 more attempts than Nebraska. The defense can give up a 50% scoring clip and still win handily because they made 8 more, or 12 more, buckets. Every once in a while though that doesn't work. Nebraska shot an eFG of 71.7%, which is absurd, and Iowa still could have won. The real difference being that charge call in the final minute which effectively ended the game. That's bad luck. Iowa beat MSU because of good luck.
Iowa shot the ball really well last year…….until they didn’t. Yes the tournament is mostly luck that is won by the team usually with the best players and catches the most breaks.Iowa is never going to have the best players the recruiting ranking show that. Iowa hasn’t gotten lucky shooting it needed in order to make a run.(even when they have great shooting teams like last season). Not sure why you have to go towards the personal insults. Here’s an article on luck in basketball. Ken Pomeroy has also done extensive research on this and even has a “luck” stat on his website.
You are welcome.
A March Madness Champion: Lucky or Good? - 'CATS STATS
March Madness is so exciting, in part because every game can be a team’s last. Every single game is Game 7. That being said, there is not much that decides winners and losers in the NCAA Tournament. One shot, one tip, one rebound, and as we saw this year, seemingly one millimeter of the rim.
catsstats.timchartier.com
Again here’s one more. The tournament has essentially become how hot you can get from 3 and/or how cold your opponents are from deep.
Threes, luck, and volume in the NCAA tournament
Michigan State was the final team to reach the 2019 Final Four, thanks to a Kenny Goins three with 39 seconds remaining against Duke. By virtue not only of Goins’ heroics but also the fact th…
johngasaway.com
I love the SVI. I feel number of shots trumps everything because that means 1) you offensive rebound and 2) you turn your opponent over. Just being an average shooting team with a high SVI in the regular season should get you enough success to make the tournament. Then it comes down to luck from there on out. High SVI teams who shoot well win and advance.Again here’s one more. The tournament has essentially become how hot you can get from 3 and/or how cold your opponents are from deep.
Threes, luck, and volume in the NCAA tournament
Michigan State was the final team to reach the 2019 Final Four, thanks to a Kenny Goins three with 39 seconds remaining against Duke. By virtue not only of Goins’ heroics but also the fact th…
Per Gasaway's website, in 2019 7 of the top 8 SVI teams made the Sweet 16. But as luck indicates, Iowa last year shot like garbage and lost.
If he goes to a Final 4, would it change what you think of him as a coach? Whether he ever does or not, he should never be considered anything more than an above average college coach. Has interesting teams that live by the 3, die by the 3, but are usually wildly inconsistent in their play at both ends. He not a bad coach but has had enough time to show he will never be a great one. That being said, Fran is not going anywhere, and I don't expect to see many changes in his teams. They always have a puncher's chance of making a short run, because of their 3-pt. shooting attempts, but it won't be due to coaching.
Too many people stuck in the 80s/90s mindset get stuck on vague terms like “toughness” “clutch” etc…. when the data tells the story. At some point you hope all the bad luck iowa has had in the second round of the tourney(or first round last year)under Fran will even out. Unfortunately I don’t think we have the talent this year to even test out that luck. Last year was the year(great draw to sweet 16, team playing well and shooting well going in, NBA lottery player)and the shooting gods unfortunately denied us.
Iowa ranks 81st in the nation in 3pa. It’s 2023, every team shoots a lot of 3s.
Seems to check out.Again here’s one more. The tournament has essentially become how hot you can get from 3 and/or how cold your opponents are from deep.
Threes, luck, and volume in the NCAA tournament
Michigan State was the final team to reach the 2019 Final Four, thanks to a Kenny Goins three with 39 seconds remaining against Duke. By virtue not only of Goins’ heroics but also the fact th…
ISU got incredibly lucky playing Wisconsin last year. Chuckie Hepburn got hurt early and the Badgers shot an abysmal 9% (2-22) from 3 and 29% from the floor. Some of it goes to good defense. And alot of it goes to the fact that Wisconsin was just downright atrocious
And ranks 152 in shooting percentage. Let's toss up a few more...clank!
I do believe that there really is only one criticism that can be used against Fran as a coach and that is the fact we have been consistently bad on defense since Woodbury left. The fact that it doesn’t seem to bother him(at least in most interviews he tends to scoff at that when asked) or that there hasn’t been a commitment to doing something different from an approach is disheartening and is a valid argument of why a change may need to happen. Everything else is just emotional noise nonsense. Iowa is a great offensive team year in and year out and is doing it with three star talent that usually sticks around in an age when everyone leaves. Fran does a great job of developing players from an offensive skill standpoint it just doesn’t seem to translate on the defensive end.
Iowa has the third best offense in the country. Stats don’t match with your perception. Iowa is consistently one of the better shooting teams in the country, just not this year. This team is naturally going to shoot a lot of threes with a lack of post presence. It’s also 2023 there aren’t many teams who don’t shoot a ton of threes. It’s usually a pre-requisite to success in the modern age.
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Bob Bowlsby took a ton of heat for not extending TD, but it would pale in comparison to the the embarrassment Iowa would face if they fired Fran.
Not going to happen,
Not going to happen,
I love his recruits for next season and has something solid going the year after. I think we could develop a powerhouse team in a few years. Maybe a top 10 team. If kf can address the offense then Fran can address the defense.
How about actually play f'ing defense, if Fran does not want to fix the D he needs to go.
Agreed won't happen unless Fran gets himself fired with a few turd seasons. The Turd seasons happened midway his his stint, but he already had gotten a contract extension.
Fran managed to keep the string down to a couple bad seasons before we hit our current Golden Age of Iowa B-ball.
Next season could be a Turd.
No Rebracca, CMac or Kris?
Need Mulvey to blossom (possible), or get some help from the portal (unlikely) or the freshmen need to be ready to contribute ( 🤷♂️).
I would not mind seeing Iowa in the round of 32 this year.
Something that requires slowing down or challenging the opponent from scoring...
I see Iowa as a bubble team next year, assuming Kris leaves. I don't think it will be a turd year. In the last turd year, the only significant veteran contributor was Nicholas Baer (junior). Everyone else was freshman/sophomores.
Next year we return a relative strong group of veterans (Perkins, Sandfort, PMac, Ulis). I think Dix and Bowen can make big strides - Bowen in particular has shown flashes of really high potential if the game can slow down for him a bit. I also think each of the incoming freshman can be solid contributors. Pryce is higher rated than Payton was, and Peyton was an efficient offensive player as a freshman. It will be very nice to have a non-undersized center with Owen Freeman (I have zero hope for Ogundele, and almost zero hope for Mulvey). Dembele can add some needed depth in the frontcourt, and I think Harding is going to be a very good guard.
I expect Iowa's 4-year run of having a 20 point scorer will likely end (Pa. Sandfort may have the best chance?), and so the contributions will need to be more evenly spread like it was in '19. All of the pieces have some limitations. Perkins and Ulis struggle with outside shooting, PMac struggles in the half court offense, Sandfort is limited off the dribble, etc. But there's enough pieces that produce value that next year's team should still be competitive for an NCAA berth.
Edit - and I still have hope that we could land a high quality player in the portal. Iowa's NIL offering is stronger than ever with the Iowa Swarm which should make Iowa much more competitive in the portal.
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I hope you are right. But the "strong group of veterans (Perk, Sandfort, PMac, Ulis)" are still very inconsistent. I'm not seeing much potential for this group to "step up" - I think they are what they are. Hope I'm wrong.
Hard to pin hopes on freshman. All look good, but they are .... freshman. Dix and Bowen look good so far.
If neither O or Mulvey is ready to contribute it's a huge recruiting fail.
Gonna need some immediate portal help, which isn't really Fran's M.O.
Sitting down in a stance, seeing the ball, high active hands, being disciplined enough to being able to help and get back, which comes back to being in a stance. Ya know basics defensive principles any good HS program would use, yet hasn’t been demanded at Iowa since Fran has been here. Iowa’s D is hoping the opponent misses wide open looks.
In the last turd year roster, your forgot Peter Jok who was All-B1G type talent.
So Nicholas Baer--solid guy + Peter JOk, then JBO, Cook, Isaiah moss.
Bowen/Dix are a pretty good pair for next year, but I think Bowen likely not happy that he was passed over by Dix and played very little in B1G, so high probability he is gone based on what typically happens in Spring. Maybe Swarm NIL can retain a couple guys like Perkins and Bowen that probably have pretty good free market value/options.
The 6'8 Freshman coming in next year will start. I don't see anyone that can rebound/play uber physical next year other than Mulvey and Fran has rarely played Mulvey this year JoshO is a giant, but if he can only play 2-3 minutes at a time, then he doesn't really fit.
Is an 9-11 or 8-12 B1G record a Turd year? Yeah, a little bit....we have high floor with Fran, but unfortunately low ceiling.
We are in a tough spot. It is absolutely idiotic to fire a coach for finishing tied for 5th in the Big Ten, and making his 8th NCAA tourney appearance in 10 years, while dropping guys into the NBA regularly now, and recruiting well. While on the other side, it's absolutely frustrating as hell to not make it through the first weekend of the tournament one time during those 10 years.
Jok's senior year Iowa was in '17 and Iowa went 19-15 (10-8), lost in the 2nd round of the NIT. They made a late season push to get included in bubble talk (needed 2 or 3 Big Ten Tournament wins). I don't count that as a turd season.
The next year ('18) Iowa went 14-19 (4-14). That was the last turd season.
"no tourney success". Jesus. You mean no "sweet 16 success". He's won games in the tourney.
I think we'll be at, or just slightly south of .500 in conference play next year,... That should be good enough to dance..
If Kris leaves and no else transfers out Iowa lose 50% of their scoring, over %50 of their rebounds. Not sure how with that much production gone that people can say tournament team. If Fran can address the 4,5 positions in the portal then that would increase the chances of replacing that production. But based on Fran's record in the transfer portal that's a huge ask.
Totally agree OP.
Fran has had more than enough time to push us further. I for one do not want to sit in this loop of mediocrity when we know Fran's ceiling. Fran is a good coach no doubt but he is not going to get us higher. If it was year 5 of this I would say he stays, but it is year 13.
You have a homegrown guy that is young and a no brainer hire.
Fran has had more than enough time to push us further. I for one do not want to sit in this loop of mediocrity when we know Fran's ceiling. Fran is a good coach no doubt but he is not going to get us higher. If it was year 5 of this I would say he stays, but it is year 13.
You have a homegrown guy that is young and a no brainer hire.
