Iowa lost 63% of its scoring after '21 (Garza, Wieskamp, Fredrick, Nunge) and made the tournament in '22. Iowa lost 46% of its scoring after '22 (Keegan, Bohannon, Toussaint) and will make the tournament in '23.
It's not unprecedented.
If we don't go on a run in the NCAAs, it's time
- Thread starter Nagarunja
- Start date
Iowa lost 63% of its scoring after '21 (Garza, Wieskamp, Fredrick, Nunge) and made the tournament in '22. Iowa lost 46% of its scoring after '22 (Keegan, Bohannon, Toussaint) and will make the tournament in '23.
It's not unprecedented.
I think your math is flawed,... Kris isn't 50% of the offense, plus his absence will provide minutes for others who are more than capable of contributing something in excess of zero...
Read the OP. It most certainly was predicated, solely, on a poor performance at this year's NCAA Tournament.
I find it strange how some posters can't infer that my OP was based on Fran's body of work.
13 years. No top 16 finishes. How many more years is it ok to not win games when, ya know, it matters most?
13 years. No top 16 finishes. How many more years is it ok to not win games when, ya know, it matters most?
As long as we keep making the tourney, Fran is safe.
Gotta be in it to win it.
Remember those seasons when Selection Sunday was just another day?
If we keep making it we will break thru eventually.
Gotta be in it to win it.
Remember those seasons when Selection Sunday was just another day?
If we keep making it we will break thru eventually.
It was easy to see a Keegan and a Kris on those teams. Whose the Keegan or Kris next year? Do you see a NBA first round pick on the roster right now? Also whose rebounding next year?
I'd say with just 1 "impact" transfer (i.e. a starter), next year's team has the capability to be a solid Tournament team. I'm looking forward to an off-season where Fran can fully utilize Swarm.
I mean..is there a NBA player on Purdue or NW's squad? Fran needs to call up Chris Collins and ask how he overhauled the defense.
Somebody always picks up the slack for the starters lost. The last 8 years they've average 77-83 points per games and always allowed less points scored.
I like McCaffery, but I have to admit that I am wavering a bit. Getting up in years and like my beloved Cubs, I wondered for decades if they would ever win the WS in my lifetime. Iowa Basketball is my very favorite sporting interest and, even though I've had some satisfying wins over the years, I'm beginning to wonder if we will ever either win a true conference title again (1979) or barring that, make some serious noise in the NCAA Tournament. All that said, those of you thinking McCaffery should be fired are going to be frustrated year after year while he finishes in the upper third of the conference and annually makes the tournament. You might as well enjoy what aspects of the program you can and sit tight until he makes the decision to leave.
We'll be okay,.. and perhaps, by mid-season, even improved.
This is my view almost exactly. At some point all of us don't get "next year," but you have to make the Tournament to have a chance, and Fran is doing that consistently.
We haven’t been on any type of run in the tourney since BJ Armstrong was point guard. 35 years of futility and being irrelevant. Possible exception was the Reggie Evans squad but they laid a turd in the tourney.
Over one year — yes. Over 13 years, a good coach at a Power 5 men’s program should be able to make a run of winning 2 straight games in the NCAA tournament.
Like it or not, college basketball has become all about the NCAA tournament. Long term lack of tournament success is a big deal.
The Reggie Evans teams had to win four games in four days to even make the tournament his JR. year and then was a part of the most underachieving team in modern Iowa history his senior year. Shortly after the Pierre Pierce incident occurred. Might be the worst two year and half year stretch for the program ever and one that made most of us realize what a disaster Alford was.
I would like to think he was also referring to Rebraca. If not, math wasn't his best subject.
Certainly the buck stops with Fran. Either he really thinks he can outscore everyone, (which we've all seen doesn't work often enough), he can't coach defense, or he can't bring in good enough players to defend at this level consistently.
And thats great, unless your on the road and your shooting 20% for the YEAR.....
I am not going to pile on Fran and it's best to evaluate well away from the emotion of games.
I do think this is a very big post season for him.
I do think this is a very big post season for him.
Can everyone at least agree that the sweet sixteen isn't comprised of the best 16 teams? I don't even know where to find this without looking at every year's bracket but I'd bet it has been quite awhile without even the top 20 seeds all being alive in the second weekend. And if Fran were to advance, is he then guaranteed a contract for life? Since this seems to be the defining characteristic for whatever reason.
It’s time for the weak fans to go cheer for a different team.
Seeing as backwards time travel isn't a thing, I don't know that there is anything we can do about that. If he achieves it this season does that warrant retirement on his terms? Barring outside scandals why or why not? I'm curious as to people's thoughts.
It's not rocket science. People want more postseason success, and the NCAA 2nd Round has been the obvious invisible ceiling the past 35 years that people want to break through. That is why all the Sweet 16 talk.
Yes, you are correct that it's not the best 16 teams in the country that get to the Sweet 16, which makes it all the more frustrating that it's so elusive for Iowa.
Other than winning the Big 10 tournament last year, and that NIT run early on, Fran's teams have done squat in the postseason. Making a Sweet 16 would buy him a lot of goodwill with quite a few of us, I have to think.
I think you are right but I find it so odd that it’s the one thing fans get caught up on. It’s hard to win in college basketball games in tourney and very rarely has iowa favored in those second round games. Luck hasn’t been with us simple as that.
Last year was the real kick in the gut because Hawks would have been favored by five or six over Providence in that second round game. Last year was the year to do it and they had one bad shooting game and the lottery pick played poorly.
Just a little NCAA luck away from crossing a big threshold.
Good class coming in. I look to Ahron and Tony to make big strides. Tony maybe All Big Ten strides. Payton Sandfort is the other guy that could really take off. He's shown all the parts of a pretty good all around player. Especially to be a volume scorer.
Big hole in the middle but the rest of the team looks good. Good big man in the portal would help.
Good class coming in. I look to Ahron and Tony to make big strides. Tony maybe All Big Ten strides. Payton Sandfort is the other guy that could really take off. He's shown all the parts of a pretty good all around player. Especially to be a volume scorer.
Big hole in the middle but the rest of the team looks good. Good big man in the portal would help.
Yeah…maybe Iowa can hire a coach that holds teams in the low 60’s. Really who wants to watch a team that scores in the 80’s every year.
My question for anyone happy with keeping Fran around is this, do you think we’ve seen his ceiling?
I think we have. He’s put four players into the NBA in the last 5 years and soon to have another one. He’s had a NPOY and another All-American. He’s had many 1st team All-Big Ten players. He’s made the tourney with 4 different schools. He’s finished in the upper half of the conference many times.
He’s never made a sweet 16 in his career. He’s never finished on top of the conference, or even finished in 2nd place, in his tenure at Iowa. Given enough opportunities he may get a lucky draw in the tourney and win 2 games. But he is not ever going to get us to the Final Four with his lack of defense. And he’s never going to win a conference title with his lack of defense. We’ve seen what he can do. This isn’t like Bluder who has had cyclical success. Heck even Dr Tom finished 2nd in the conference in 1997, and it should be considered a title when you take into account Minny having to vacate their season for cheating.
I think we have. He’s put four players into the NBA in the last 5 years and soon to have another one. He’s had a NPOY and another All-American. He’s had many 1st team All-Big Ten players. He’s made the tourney with 4 different schools. He’s finished in the upper half of the conference many times.
He’s never made a sweet 16 in his career. He’s never finished on top of the conference, or even finished in 2nd place, in his tenure at Iowa. Given enough opportunities he may get a lucky draw in the tourney and win 2 games. But he is not ever going to get us to the Final Four with his lack of defense. And he’s never going to win a conference title with his lack of defense. We’ve seen what he can do. This isn’t like Bluder who has had cyclical success. Heck even Dr Tom finished 2nd in the conference in 1997, and it should be considered a title when you take into account Minny having to vacate their season for cheating.
Bluder didn't make the Sweet 16 until Year 15 at Iowa. Ironically, using Bluder as the comparison is perhaps the best case you can make about keeping Fran. Bluder's first 13 seasons at Iowa were very similar to Fran's - good coach that consistently makes the tournament, but never got past the first weekend.
What is strange about Fran is how close he's come multiple times to having truly great teams:
- '13-14: Iowa was in KenPom top 10 in mid-February. Ended up as an 11 seed and lost in OT to Tennessee, who then went on to the Sweet 16.
- '15-16: Iowa reach KenPom #1 in February, was in the AP top 5 for multiple weeks, ended up as a 7 seed losing to Villanova in the 2nd round.
- '20-21: Top 10 team virtually all season, #2 seed.
- '21-22: Won 10 of last 12 games entering NCAA Tournament. #5 seed and trendy Final Four pick.
Ultimately, do I think 13 years should be enough time for a coach to make it to the Sweet 16? Yes. Do I still think Fran can get Iowa there (and beyond)? Also yes. Any team good enough to get an at-large NCAA Tournament berth is also good enough to make a run if they play their best basketball and catch a few breaks. The NCAA Tournament is chaotic, and we've seen some rather mediocre teams suddenly play great and reach the Final Four.
Oh so fans who want more should go elsewhere? Stupid
0-18 Stev Prohm
Sweet 16 THE NEXT SEASON.
It does not take long to
So Iowa, suiting as the #2 seed in the big tourney just needed better luck to beat a bad team. MS U game was the fluke of the century
I do think we have reached the ceiling under Fran but what is so bad with where we are at? Consistently making the tournament is something that this program hasn’t seen since Tom Davis in the mid 90s. Do people think if we bring in Devries we are going to be top 2 in the conference every year and a top 3 seed in the dance? If Fran is fired after this year as so many want and brings in Devries history tells us a program like Iowa takes 2 or 3 years to rebuild (unless you want the program to change philosophies and just bring in a new team each year like ISU, which seems quite volatile) Are we really ready for a 2 to 3 year rebuild after making the tournament almost every year for the past decade? Seems risky.
Bluders team did win a big ten regular season title in 2008.
I'm not on the fire Fran immediately train yet. But I'm ambivalent about him right now. I like him as a person but his coaching and results is leaving a lot to be desired.
However, FUD is no reason to not make a change. This is basketball, not football. Teams can be turned over fairly quickly. Heck, with the right coach it can be done in one offseason. But if Fran were replaced today, the next coach would have a lot of work to do on the roster. A few warm bodies on scholarship that need replaced and I'm guessing Patrick would be gone too.
Stupid is throwing childish tantrums every time things don’t go our way…..and turning a bad shooting game into a fire the coach and go out and hire another coach with no good evidence that they can do anything different…..like other programs that are no where near as stable and successful as ours seem to do repeatedly.
People that want to bitch and whine and wallow in misery only end up dragging others down.
