Initial NCAA Seeding Thoughts

[goiahawkeyes]

Here are my initial thoughts on where our guys will be seeded next week. This is after a 5 minute review, let's discuss where you disagree with me.

125: Gilman #1 seed

Interested to see what they do with Suriano here. I could see them leaving him alone and putting him in a 2/3 seed or could drop him to 4/5 seed and be on Gilman's side. Either way, no one is stopping Gilman next week.​

133: Clark #2/3/4 seed

This is going to be interesting. I think if Brock would have beaten Gross then Clark gets the 3 seed, but since Gross came out on top does he go up to #2 now? Does Clark's close match with Tomasello keep him in the hunt for #2/3 seed? If it was up to me I'd go

1. Tomasello
2. Gross
3. Brock
4. Clark​

141: Carton - not seeded

He needed a couple wins this weekend to get a seed, didn't work out but he did a good job of getting that win to qualify him. Very happy for Carton​

149: Sorenson #4/5 seed

With his loss to Jordan he drops a spot. I would think he and Mayes split the 4/5 seed. Doesn't really matter who gets what.

1. Rethorford
2. Collica
3. Jordan
4. Sorenson
5. Mayes​

157: Kemerer #2 seed

1 and 2 seeds are set in stone, what they do after that will be fun to watch.
​

165: Gunther - not seeded

I think he gets a spot, just up to luck if he gets an IMar/Massa or a Wanzek
​

174: Meyer #11 seed

This seems crazy, but I don't know who on this list you'd put him above right now. With that said I think he can beat all but Valencia

1. Valencia
2. Jordan
3. Realbuto
4. Hall
5. Epperly
6. Crutchmer
7. Ramos
8. Preisch
9. Amine
10. Brunson
11. Meyer
​

184: Brooks #2/3 seed

Another great B1G tourney by Sammy. By winning this he kept away from being on Dean's side of the bracket. Either he or Nickal get #2 seed. I'd love to see a Martin / Dean and Brooks / Nickal semi. That'd make my tournament.

1. Dean
2. Brooks/Nickal
3. Nickal/Brooks
4. Zavatsky
5. Martin
6. Dudley​

 

[LutherAce]

i'd rather see a Brooks/Martin semi and a Dean/Nickal Semi...but i'm selfish....

 

[goiahawkeyes]

i'd rather see a Brooks/Martin semi and a Dean/Nickal Semi...but i'm selfish....

Hard to disagree with you there. A guy you majored twice or the guy that pinned you in :38. Just saying they'd be great matches no matter what.

 

[crablegs1]

i'd rather see a Brooks/Martin semi and a Dean/Nickal Semi...but i'm selfish....

184 is such a deep weight it is hard to chalk anyone into the semis other than Dean. I think Boyd probably gets the 4 seed and you bump each of the initial posters 4-6 down a spot. That would mean Brooks faces Dudley in the quarters (2 vs 7) and Nickal has Martin (3 vs 6) in the quarters. Those are some tough quarterfinal matchups.

 

[Jackhawk87]

Kinda hope Martin gets the 6 seed so he faces the 3 seed (or 7 facing the 2). If Sammy gets the 3, it seems to be a pretty good matchup for him. If Nickal gets the 3, it seems to be a pretty bad matchup for him and could knock him to the consis and Brooks (if still winning) would get Martin in the semis.

 

[slicone]

I think 133 will look like this if they stick to this criteria

Head-to-head 25% Quality wins 20% Common opponents 10% RPI 10% Qualifying placement 10% Coaches rank 15% Win percentage 10%

1. Nathan Tomasello Ohio St.
2. Seth Gross South Dakota St.
3. Kaid Brock
4. Dom Forys Pittsburgh
5. Cory Clark Iowa
6.Stevan Micic Michigan
7.Zane Richards
8. Eric Montoya Nebraska

 

[GantryZ]

Forys hasn't beaten a single top 10 wrestler and missed pretty much all of December, I can't see him getting anything higher than 7.

 

[Big Fall]

I think 133 will look like this if they stick to this criteria

Head-to-head 25% Quality wins 20% Common opponents 10% RPI 10% Qualifying placement 10% Coaches rank 15% Win percentage 10%

1. Nathan Tomasello Ohio St.
2. Seth Gross South Dakota St.
3. Kaid Brock
4. Dom Forys Pittsburgh
5. Cory Clark Iowa
6.Stevan Micic Michigan
7.Zane Richards
8. Eric Montoya Nebraska

I would love this draw but not sure I follow given Gross' quality wins are few and he has a loss to Montoya. Is the criteria you posted what is actually used? I have to think finishing 2nd in the B1G in a deep weight class with a last second loss to the #1 warrants a better spot than 5 but again, I'd take that bracket right now. Would much rather see Forys in the quarters versus Richards/Micic/Montoya.

 

[butchinmi]

Hey goiahawkeyes - Thanks for the info.

As far as Meyer, you and I have a different opinion. I look at the 10 above him and can't think of anyone one of them he would beat or beat this time around if he has beaten them before. I hope you are right.

 

[slicone]

Forys hasn't beaten a single top 10 wrestler and missed pretty much all of December, I can't see him getting anything higher than 7.

hes got more matches that Clark quality wins would be close
Qualifying placement forys
Common opponents 10% both lost to brock N/A
Head-to-head 25% N/A
RPI 10% Clark doesnt qualify

Win percentage 10% devoy gets this

Coaches rank 15% Clark will get this

Devoy gets 57.5 to Corys 42.5

 

[slicone]

I would love this draw but not sure I follow given Gross' quality wins are few and he has a loss to Montoya. Is the criteria you posted what is actually used? I have to think finishing 2nd in the B1G in a deep weight class with a last second loss to the #1 warrants a better spot than 5 but again, I'd take that bracket right now. Would much rather see Forys in the quarters versus Richards/Micic/Montoya.

The criteria I posted is exactly the criteria they have to use. So yes the 1st in Gross' qualifier gets more weight then clarks 2nd. And the fact that he lost in the final seconds of the match means nothing, as far as the committee is concerned a lose is a lose

 

[GantryZ]

hes got more matches that Clark quality wins would be close
Qualifying placement forys
Common opponents 10% both lost to brock N/A
Head-to-head 25% N/A
RPI 10% Clark doesnt qualify

Win percentage 10% devoy gets this

Coaches rank 15% Clark will get this

Devoy gets 57.5 to Corys 42.5

You are combining Forys and Kevin Devoy of Drexel. I'm arguing about Forys, who doesn't have RPI either, at least as of 2/23. Admittedly you seem to know the #s better than I do but with neither getting RPI does Forys have the advantage?

 

[slicone]

You are combining Forys and Kevin Devoy of Drexel. I'm arguing about Forys, who doesn't have RPI either, at least as of 2/23. Admittedly you seem to know the #s better than I do but with neither getting RPI does Forys have the advantage?

Nice catch, I was mixing them up. However it appears Froys 2 matches this weekend put him over the threshold. So he will get an rpi

 

[GantryZ]

Very interesting, thanks for the info. Curious to see how it will play out, the formula for seeding is way more mathematical than I thought. When it comes right down to it, Clark didn't get a lot of high level wins this year and that may hurt his seed.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Not sure how Clark will be seeded........

but guessing anyone seeded above him hopes he is on the other side of the bracket...........amiright?

 

[AFHawk86]

Very interesting, thanks for the info. Curious to see how it will play out, the formula for seeding is way more mathematical than I thought.

Regardless of math, there will always be a human element otherwise a seeding committee is not needed as it would be determined solely by a computer.

 

[Atdawn123]

When do the brackets get released?

 

[GantryZ]

Regardless of math, there will always be a human element otherwise a seeding committee is not needed as it would be determined solely by a computer.

Am I crazy for thinking that a couple people on the seeding committee last year weren't even wrestling coaches? That rings a bell but I could be wrong - it was like Borelli of Stanford, Minkel and a couple ADs or administrators.

 

[jmadden1998]

When do the brackets get released?

The selection show is Wednesday at 5pm CST. It will be streamed on ncaa.com.

 

[Atdawn123]

The selection show is Wednesday at 5pm CST. It will be streamed on ncaa.com.

Thanks!!!

 

[LutherAce]

The selection show is Wednesday at 5pm CST. It will be streamed on ncaa.com.

hopefully they dont post photo's of the brackets like last year and i won't have to manually enter every wrestler to my bracket!...i'm not bitter about it either

 

[pablow]

Didn't this issue arise with Cody Brewer a few years ago - he got a low seed and everyone in his path got screwed. The only fair approach is to give Clark a #4 or #5 seed.

 

[reddogg26]

I don't care where Cory is seeded as long as Micic is on the other side.

 

[reddogg26]

184 is crazy. As good as Sammy looked this weekend he can beat anybody not named Nickal but for whatever the reason Martin has Nickal's number.

 

[Big Fall]

I don't disagree that they use a formula but it seems like each passing year, more common sense has come into the equation. Especially after the Brewer year. There were a lot of silly seeds that year and his was the most glaring. I think ignoring past results and penalizing a proven wrestler's seed based on injury/missed time is a slippery slope. Making Clark the 5 isn't going crazy but any lower than that would be. No matter what, the road to the championship is going to be brutal for anyone, starting in the quarterfinals. There will be some ball busters that round.

 

[championhawk]

184 is crazy. As good as Sammy looked this weekend he can beat anybody not named Nickal but for whatever the reason Martin has Nickal's number.

You lose any credibility you may have had by saying Sammy can't beat Bo. My money would be on a healthy Sammy. At worst it is a toss up. Sammy won't make the same mistake again.

 

[Hwt1]

184 is such a deep weight it is hard to chalk anyone into the semis other than Dean. I think Boyd probably gets the 4 seed and you bump each of the initial posters 4-6 down a spot. That would mean Brooks faces Dudley in the quarters (2 vs 7) and Nickal has Martin (3 vs 6) in the quarters. Those are some tough quarterfinal matchups.

All 4 Big Ten guys on the same side (2,3,6,7) would be crazy and wrong in my opinion. Sammy can beat anyone but a rematch of Brooks - Dudley at 2-7 in the quarters like last year bothers me. Dean (1) vs Dudley (8) and Bo (3) vs Martin (6) with Sammy at 2 seed would be great.

 

[jvclark]

I think 133 will look like this if they stick to this criteria

Head-to-head 25% Quality wins 20% Common opponents 10% RPI 10% Qualifying placement 10% Coaches rank 15% Win percentage 10%

1. Nathan Tomasello Ohio St.
2. Seth Gross South Dakota St.
3. Kaid Brock
4. Dom Forys Pittsburgh
5. Cory Clark Iowa
6.Stevan Micic Michigan
7.Zane Richards
8. Eric Montoya Nebraska

I might be okay with that. He is going to have to beat Tomasello no matter what. Maybe better to face him Friday night than Saturday night. One less match to wear on his body??

 

[chuck285]

184 is crazy. As good as Sammy looked this weekend he can beat anybody not named Nickal but for whatever the reason Martin has Nickal's number.

Some of you like to do the math so figure out the 184 bracket like you did for the 133. Tks

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Am I crazy for thinking that a couple people on the seeding committee last year weren't even wrestling coaches? That rings a bell but I could be wrong - it was like Borelli of Stanford, Minkel and a couple ADs or administrators.

Three administrators, three coaches. That's generally a rule-of-thumb for how the committee is constituted, although it was briefly four admins and two coaches a few years back.

 

[lionlover]

184 is crazy. As good as Sammy looked this weekend he can beat anybody not named Nickal but for whatever the reason Martin has Nickal's number.

Nickal has beaten Martin more times than Martin has beaten Nickal.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Three administrators, three coaches. That's generally a rule-of-thumb for how the committee is constituted, although it was briefly four admins and two coaches a few years back.

Well that certainly explains a lot.........

 

[LutherAce]

Nickal has beaten Martin more times than Martin has beaten Nickal.

4-2 in the last two years, but the 2 have been when "it mattered"

 

[Sandor45]

100% chance wrestling twitter will be in an uproar after seeds come out.
100% chance the flo boys will all be in a glass case of emotions.
100% chance that the committee screws up 1 major seed that the entire wrestling community can agree on
.000000000000000000001% chance seeds come out the way the majority of people can agree on.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

100% chance wrestling twitter will be in an uproar after seeds come out.
100% chance the flo boys will all be in a glass case of emotions.
100% chance that the committee screws up 1 major seed that the entire wrestling community can agree on
.000000000000000000001% chance seeds come out the way the majority of people can agree on.

I think you've got an 83% chance of being correct...........

 

[hawks_82]

All 4 Big Ten guys on the same side (2,3,6,7) would be crazy and wrong in my opinion. Sammy can beat anyone but a rematch of Brooks - Dudley at 2-7 in the quarters like last year bothers me. Dean (1) vs Dudley (8) and Bo (3) vs Martin (6) with Sammy at 2 seed would be great.

This

Regardles of who is seeded where, I wonder if there is anthing in the seeding rules about separating conference opponents? To put Brooks, Nickal, Martin and Dudley all on the same side seems criminal.

 

[AFHawk86]

This

Regardles of who is seeded where, I wonder if there is anthing in the seeding rules about separating conference opponents? To put Brooks, Nickal, Martin and Dudley all on the same side seems criminal.

No, there are no rules to separate conference competitors. There used to be a rule that wrestlers from the same conference couldn't meet in the first round but that was removed a couple years ago. I'm sure the rest of the NCAA would love for B1G opponents to take one another out on the championship side of the bracket. I hope the committee considers this unofficially during their deliberations.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

No, there are no rules to separate conference competitors. There used to be a rule that wrestlers from the same conference couldn't meet in the first round but that was removed a couple years ago. I'm sure the rest of the NCAA would love for B1G opponents to take one another out on the championship side of the bracket. I hope the committee considers this unofficially during their deliberations.

I'm sure the three administrators on the commitee will remind the three coaches of it and all will be well...........

 

[Lsanders20]

It seems to happen all the time. Two big 10 guys having to go at it in the quarters or semis. They seem to like the idea of pitting a big 10 guy against an opponent from a different conference.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

I gotta tell you guys...I'm thinking Clark is getting stronger each match and I really don't care where they seed him because I think he's going to win it all. As for BS, I hope he gets the 6 seed vice the 4/5 so he doesn't have to face Zain until the finals. And finally, like most of you I want a Nickal-Martin / Gabe-Brooks semi at 184. I think Martin has Nickal's number and I think Brooks can beat Dean and Martin...Sammy seems great against the power, but he seems to have the ability to get into self-initiated funky positions that Bo seems to be the master of exploiting. Again, like the rest of you, I sure hope they don't f**k the B10 by putting all our horses at 184 on the same side of the bracket...that would be completely FUBAR. Glad we only have to wait a day to really get this discussion rocking.