Iowa '19 Resume vs Iowa '20 Resume

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

With almost a week between games, and now that we've got a decent sample of games under our belts to look at NET rankings, I wanted to compare our resume from last year to what we've got so far this year.

2019 SOR: 27
2020 SOR: 25

2019 Computer Ranks: BPI - 37, POM - 36, SAG - 42
2020 Computer Ranks: BPI - 18, POM - 18, SAG -18

2019 SOS/NCSOS: 85/302
2020 SOS/NCSOS: 87/122
Our remaining conference games will improve our overall SOS significantly

2019 Road Record: 4-6
2020 Road Record: 2-1
8 games remain

2019 Q1 (Q1A/Q1B): 4-10 (1-5/3-5)
2020 Q1 (Q1A/Q1B): 3-2 (0-2/3-0)
11 Q1 games remain

2019 Q2 (Q2A/Q2B): 7-0 (5-0/2-0)
2020 Q2 (Q2A/Q2B): 2-1 (1-1/1-0)
4 Q2 games remain

2019 Q3/4 (Q3/Q4): 11-1 (5-1/6-0)
2020 Q3/4 (Q3/Q4): 5-0 (1-0/4-0)
2 Q3, 1 Q4 games remain

Granted, we need to look at each season individually, but if 2019 was a 10-seed resume, I like what we've seen so far. The biggest differences to me are that our computer numbers are significantly better and our strength of schedule is way improved. I don't know that we're going to see a significant improvement (or any improvement) in our Q1 or Q2 records, but we'll have plenty of opportunities in the B1G to do it.

Realistically, to cement our tournament, it seems like we really only need to get 1 of:
vs Ohio St, @ Penn St. (N), vs Penn St., @ Maryland, @ Michigan St., @ Minnesota
Also look have only 1 loss in these games:
vs Wisconsin, vs Rutgers, vs Illinois, vs Purdue, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska

If we can do that, which would be very manageable (or add a good win for each loss we take in Q2-4), and we should be safely in the NCAAs. Anything on top is gravy. With these metrics, it looks like 18-13 is bubbly, 19-12 is probably First Four and 20-11 is single digit seed.

 

[paladinhawk]

Thanks for taking the time to collect all those numbers.

My biggest concern going forward is the team's depth. Hopefully they don't wear down too much.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Other than the usual turds, like kennesaw last night, the non con has been a significant upgrade this season.

 

[Jumpshot00]

Depth issues are a concern if there are any more injuries. Especially if it would be Garza or Wieskamp. But on the flip side of that all 8 rotational players should be fully engaged and have plenty of minutes and opportunities. They will own what the results are and there shouldn’t be much sulking about PT which I am sure happens on a lot of teams.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

“Also look have only 1 loss in these games:
vs Wisconsin, vs Rutgers, vs Illinois, vs Purdue, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska”

I think going 6-1 against this group of teams is a difficult order. I could easily see us going 4-3 or perhaps worse. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[go-hawks37]

Illinois, Rutgers and Purdue are all legit this year.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

“Also look have only 1 loss in these games:
vs Wisconsin, vs Rutgers, vs Illinois, vs Purdue, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska”

I think going 6-1 against this group of teams is a difficult order. I could easily see us going 4-3 or perhaps worse. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

Sure, definitely difficult, but do you think we'll only win one of the first group I listed? That's the trade-off. I'm just trying to compare against what got us a #10 seed last year, and we only had 1 bad loss in Quads 2-4, so if I allow for that... there is your list.

I think even going 5-2 probably "holds serve" against last year given the improved SOS metrics.

 

[Ronman]

I appreciate that there are those who put a lot of stock in computer analytics, and yes, watching this team would seem to indicate that we're better this season. But the real test lies forward in the B1G schedule with 18 rugged tests and that will provide the real telling point on how good this team really is.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I appreciate that there are those who put a lot of stock in computer analytics, and yes, watching this team would seem to indicate that we're better this season. But the real test lies forward in the B1G schedule with 18 rugged tests and that will provide the real telling point on how good this team really is.

That's totally fair, I frankly included them because they're prominently on the Team Sheet that will be used by the selection committee. I also take the current numbers with a grain of salt, knowing that at one point we were #1 after sweeping Michigan State a few years ago. We finished that year #23 on KenPom, so fluctuations aren't unheard of throughout the season.

 

[RocknRollface]

This is a solid tournament team unless injuries change things.

This team is going to get better as the freshman get better too.

 

[littlez]

I think Herky is spot on. And I also think that at 18-13 it's possible as strong as the B1G is. His scenario is perfect. Yes, those are all solid teams, but if you want to make the tourney they are must wins, as our the 2 road games at Nebby and Northwestern. Would have liked for OSU to beat West Virginia yesterday to continue to help us, but they were probably due for a turd and Huggy Bear is a helluva coach.

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

Given the corruption and rigged games think we'll get a steady diet of two early fouls against Garzilla and probably some touchy BS against CMac and Joe T.

I'd like to be wrong but the conference seems to be returning to the bad old days where vermin like Jim Bain and Phil Bova could openly cheat, Indiana could use the ball as a weapon (or whatever else they needed to win) and there were never surprise finishes.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

Sure, definitely difficult, but do you think we'll only win one of the first group I listed? That's the trade-off. I'm just trying to compare against what got us a #10 seed last year, and we only had 1 bad loss in Quads 2-4, so if I allow for that... there is your list.

I think even going 5-2 probably "holds serve" against last year given the improved SOS metrics.

When taken in that context, I see what you’re getting at. I do think that the Hawkeyes have a better than average chance of winning 2+ games from that first group of games which lowers the chances they need to go 6-1 in the second grouping of games.

Also don’t we play Maryland at home, or do we play them twice this year?

 

[markfromj]

Given the corruption and rigged games...

I don’t give you that.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

When taken in that context, I see what you’re getting at. I do think that the Hawkeyes have a better than average chance of winning 2+ games from that first group of games which lowers the chances they need to go 6-1 in the second grouping of games.

Also don’t we play Maryland at home, or do we play them twice this year?

Home and Home this year

 

[ihawk in FWB]

Thanks a lot for putting that together OP.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

There's still yet to be a great, high seed team we've beaten, reserving judgement on Texas Tech who we'll know a lot more about in a couple weeks. Lots of solid, but less than spectacular wins, which is probably going to leave us in the middling seeds for the foreseeable future.

 

[mazda1]

The freshman wall, injuries, and lack of effective depth will likely derail our NCAA hopes this year, but there are definitely times when we can play like a tournament team.

The 4 guard lineup has performed much better than I thought it would, but realistically Pemsl and Till don’t appear ready to provide positive plus/minus results in league play.

There are a bunch of pretty equal teams in the middle of the league, and I’d expect a lot of close games. No J Bo down the stretch and no one guy that beats their man one on one regularly off the bounce or one who seems to be the go to guy at crunch time will cause us to drop a couple of games we’d get if we had that piece.

I’m encouraged by the early season results and we can be a dangerous team, but the rubber will meet the road in league play.

Time will tell how we fare.

 

[Suterman]

The freshman wall, injuries, and lack of effective depth will likely derail our NCAA hopes this year, but there are definitely times when we can play like a tournament team.

The 4 guard lineup has performed much better than I thought it would, but realistically Pemsl and Till don’t appear ready to provide positive plus/minus results in league play.

There are a bunch of pretty equal teams in the middle of the league, and I’d expect a lot of close games. No J Bo down the stretch and no one guy that beats their man one on one regularly off the bounce or one who seems to be the go to guy at crunch time will cause us to drop a couple of games we’d get if we had that piece.

I’m encouraged by the early season results and we can be a dangerous team, but the rubber will meet the road in league play.

Time will tell how we fare.

No question things ramp up in league play but this is a very competitive group of players that want very badly to win. They don't seem to have any quit in them and that will win them some games that maybe they shouldn't.

 

[RocknRollface]

The freshman wall, injuries, and lack of effective depth will likely derail our NCAA hopes this year, but there are definitely times when we can play like a tournament team.

The 4 guard lineup has performed much better than I thought it would, but realistically Pemsl and Till don’t appear ready to provide positive plus/minus results in league play.

There are a bunch of pretty equal teams in the middle of the league, and I’d expect a lot of close games. No J Bo down the stretch and no one guy that beats their man one on one regularly off the bounce or one who seems to be the go to guy at crunch time will cause us to drop a couple of games we’d get if we had that piece.

I’m encouraged by the early season results and we can be a dangerous team, but the rubber will meet the road in league play.

Time will tell how we fare.

This is probably Frans best team.

Not worried about making it all. Big ten could get double digit teams in.

They've played like a tournament team all year with the exception of 1 game.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

With almost a week between games, and now that we've got a decent sample of games under our belts to look at NET rankings, I wanted to compare our resume from last year to what we've got so far this year.

2019 SOR: 27
2020 SOR: 25

2019 Computer Ranks: BPI - 37, POM - 36, SAG - 42
2020 Computer Ranks: BPI - 18, POM - 18, SAG -18

2019 SOS/NCSOS: 85/302
2020 SOS/NCSOS: 87/122
Our remaining conference games will improve our overall SOS significantly

2019 Road Record: 4-6
2020 Road Record: 2-1
8 games remain

2019 Q1 (Q1A/Q1B): 4-10 (1-5/3-5)
2020 Q1 (Q1A/Q1B): 3-2 (0-2/3-0)
11 Q1 games remain

2019 Q2 (Q2A/Q2B): 7-0 (5-0/2-0)
2020 Q2 (Q2A/Q2B): 2-1 (1-1/1-0)
4 Q2 games remain

2019 Q3/4 (Q3/Q4): 11-1 (5-1/6-0)
2020 Q3/4 (Q3/Q4): 5-0 (1-0/4-0)
2 Q3, 1 Q4 games remain

Granted, we need to look at each season individually, but if 2019 was a 10-seed resume, I like what we've seen so far. The biggest differences to me are that our computer numbers are significantly better and our strength of schedule is way improved. I don't know that we're going to see a significant improvement (or any improvement) in our Q1 or Q2 records, but we'll have plenty of opportunities in the B1G to do it.

Realistically, to cement our tournament, it seems like we really only need to get 1 of:
vs Ohio St, @ Penn St. (N), vs Penn St., @ Maryland, @ Michigan St., @ Minnesota
Also look have only 1 loss in these games:
vs Wisconsin, vs Rutgers, vs Illinois, vs Purdue, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska

If we can do that, which would be very manageable (or add a good win for each loss we take in Q2-4), and we should be safely in the NCAAs. Anything on top is gravy. With these metrics, it looks like 18-13 is bubbly, 19-12 is probably First Four and 20-11 is single digit seed.

Everyone keeps worrying about Iowa getting sent to the First Four depending on our record.

We get sent there according to our performance. If we lose 6 of 7 and look like a** in all of those losses, then yeah 19-12 could have us staring at a First Four bid again.

If 19-12 is because we went through a damn gauntlet with some wins, and "good" losses, and even an average or better finish means a lower seed....but safely in the tournament like last year.

Yeah, the numbers might've read that we were one of the last ones in....but there's no f***ing way we weren't making the tournament, and we certainly proved we belong.

It's all about how you perform down the stretch in February and early March that solidifies your seed. Your record is not just a flat number to the NCAA committee.

 

[IllQChawk]

The freshman wall, injuries, and lack of effective depth will likely derail our NCAA hopes this year, but there are definitely times when we can play like a tournament team.

The 4 guard lineup has performed much better than I thought it would, but realistically Pemsl and Till don’t appear ready to provide positive plus/minus results in league play.

There are a bunch of pretty equal teams in the middle of the league, and I’d expect a lot of close games. No J Bo down the stretch and no one guy that beats their man one on one regularly off the bounce or one who seems to be the go to guy at crunch time will cause us to drop a couple of games we’d get if we had that piece.

I’m encouraged by the early season results and we can be a dangerous team, but the rubber will meet the road in league play.

Time will tell how we fare.

Really Iowa has only 1 true Freshman in Joe Toussaint and he doesn't play enough to even hit a proverbial wall, and C.J. has already hit his "Wall" last year, against Tyler Cook. which is the reason he red-shirted last year.
Both of those players will be fine, if Iowa falters it will because of a lack of depth or the other team is just better then us. Somehow this team just feels differently then past Iowa teams and in a good way. Looking forward to the start of the Big Ten season on Saturday. Happy New Year everyone! Stay safe and let's hope the remaining players stay healthy for the whole season.

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

I don’t give you that.

You should. You really should. Its much happier and easier to believe that enterprises involving hundreds of millions or billions of dollars are all fair and equitable but son, that ain't the real world.

The real world is greedy and primarily motivated by personal or institutional self interest. Its exceedingly unpleasant so people choose to ignore that harsh and unpleasant part of life. Reality may bite you in the ass but its still reality.

 

[El Simbolo]

The 4 guard lineup has performed much better than I thought it would. .

Many schools have successfully used 3-4 guard lineups. Is Joe W a “guard”? Anyway, we’ve been taller and slower in the past - maybe this smaller lineup will work as well for us as it has for others.