Chad Leistikow @ChadLeistikow 18h18 hours ago
Since Omaha loss, Iowa has gone from 92 to 68 in KenPom ratings. Projected to go 8-10 in B1G with three 1-point losses (Mich, at Neb, tOSU).
IOWA #68 in KenPom Rankings; Projected to go 8-10 in B1G w/ THREE 1 point losses(Mich, at Neb, tOSU)
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
I think this is fairly realistic....8-10 B10. If we keep improving it could be better and if we don't it could be worse.
I think the way Chad Leistikow's tweet states the predicted Big 10 record is slightly misleading. I don't pay a premium for Kenpom's website, but I imagine the projected final record is calculated similar to how RPIforecast.com predicts final records in that it predicts final record based on cumulative probabilities, rather than game-by-game. For example, if a team was projected to have a 33% chance of winning each of its next three games, the system would project that the team would win 1 of those games.
Thus, while Kenpom's game by game projections might show Iowa being a 1 point underdog in three games, I would imagine that the 8-10 final projected record accounts for the likelihood that we would win one of those games.
This sounds closer to me:
We'll finish 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season amidst shouts of easy schedule much louder than we ever heard of Indiana last year. Finishing the regular season at 19-12, we'll win our first Big Ten Tournament game and talk will be if we win one more were getting an NCAA invite.
By some quirk of fate, we'll get to play Michigan State next. A team that amazingly has produced a good Big Ten record. Just like the kind in the past that have ensured it, along with their reputation, of a good seed in the NCAA's. The kind of seed that sets up Sweet Sixteens and yes about every four years a good team will go from that to the Final Four!
I'm not saying the system is rigged but one might notice their roster has a guy on it every season named T.V. Marketshare! Thanks to that guy, Izzo will win B1G Coach of the Year and everybody will be talking about what an amazingly consistent job he does. Oh, and Fran does pretty good as well but that game he gets tossed out of cost them a win or something or other.
So here we are with this big game and it won't take Ted Valentine to screw us as he's had a hand in training just about every Big Ten ref and in fact a say in who get's hired to be a Big Ten ref so his legacy is such that, well, we haven't felt a disturbance on the Force like this since...2012-13!
If you get what I'm saying, anyone who goes to the BTT should take a condom to toss out on the court so at least when they screw us it's "safe". I mean, we've been through this before so why not be prepared.
And there we'll stand, watching our NCAA hopes crash down as Izzo notches another high NCAA seed upon our whipping boy backs. The real hurt will be when an 11-7 Big Ten team gets passed over by a couple of teams with, lets say 10-8 marks. Just like in 2012-13 when our 9-9 bunch was passed by for two 8-10 teams. And there were reasons because if one looks at the list of NCAA invite reasons it might just as well read,"Who we feel like."
And I won't get to say, Iowa is only one of three Big Ten teams to be invited to the last four NCAA's.
But there's the NIT! And just like 2012-13 we'll smash that thing right up to the end, maybe win it? Probably will this time. Which If I'm not mistaken takes 5 wins. We end up 25-14 or just one off of 25-13 which is what we finished in, say it with me, 2012-13.
Is that weird, or what. So in honor of repetitive history and doom, I give you, the Who:
We'll finish 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season amidst shouts of easy schedule much louder than we ever heard of Indiana last year. Finishing the regular season at 19-12, we'll win our first Big Ten Tournament game and talk will be if we win one more were getting an NCAA invite.
By some quirk of fate, we'll get to play Michigan State next. A team that amazingly has produced a good Big Ten record. Just like the kind in the past that have ensured it, along with their reputation, of a good seed in the NCAA's. The kind of seed that sets up Sweet Sixteens and yes about every four years a good team will go from that to the Final Four!
I'm not saying the system is rigged but one might notice their roster has a guy on it every season named T.V. Marketshare! Thanks to that guy, Izzo will win B1G Coach of the Year and everybody will be talking about what an amazingly consistent job he does. Oh, and Fran does pretty good as well but that game he gets tossed out of cost them a win or something or other.
So here we are with this big game and it won't take Ted Valentine to screw us as he's had a hand in training just about every Big Ten ref and in fact a say in who get's hired to be a Big Ten ref so his legacy is such that, well, we haven't felt a disturbance on the Force like this since...2012-13!
If you get what I'm saying, anyone who goes to the BTT should take a condom to toss out on the court so at least when they screw us it's "safe". I mean, we've been through this before so why not be prepared.
And there we'll stand, watching our NCAA hopes crash down as Izzo notches another high NCAA seed upon our whipping boy backs. The real hurt will be when an 11-7 Big Ten team gets passed over by a couple of teams with, lets say 10-8 marks. Just like in 2012-13 when our 9-9 bunch was passed by for two 8-10 teams. And there were reasons because if one looks at the list of NCAA invite reasons it might just as well read,"Who we feel like."
And I won't get to say, Iowa is only one of three Big Ten teams to be invited to the last four NCAA's.
But there's the NIT! And just like 2012-13 we'll smash that thing right up to the end, maybe win it? Probably will this time. Which If I'm not mistaken takes 5 wins. We end up 25-14 or just one off of 25-13 which is what we finished in, say it with me, 2012-13.
Is that weird, or what. So in honor of repetitive history and doom, I give you, the Who:
You are correct. With the amount of games Iowa has against the teams predicted to be toward the bottom rung of the conference (Rutgers 2, Nebraska 2, Illinois 2) Iowa has a chance to get some wins. And note, I say it is highly unlikely Iowa wins all 6 games against these teams, even if Iowa is "better." It's just with those 6, plus home games with Penn State and Maryland, and road games at Minnesota and Northwestern, those are all games Iowa has at least a reasonable chance of keeping close/winning.
I have been looking at Iowa's Big Ten Schedule and I have been trying to see a path that would lead Iowa to a 11-7 or 12-6 record and I just don't see it.
I think at the MOST they will get is 10 wins, but I am about 40% on that.
While the schedule is not a "tough" one in terms of games, its just we are so young and inexperienced that I see us losing some games on the road to teams we probably shouldn't lose to. Also our home games I feel we could win, but the teams that are coming into Carver are all "veteran" ball clubs who return a lot of talent like Seton Hall.
I will take a 8-10 record right now.
I think at the MOST they will get is 10 wins, but I am about 40% on that.
While the schedule is not a "tough" one in terms of games, its just we are so young and inexperienced that I see us losing some games on the road to teams we probably shouldn't lose to. Also our home games I feel we could win, but the teams that are coming into Carver are all "veteran" ball clubs who return a lot of talent like Seton Hall.
I will take a 8-10 record right now.
The "3 one point losses" thing is of course ridiculous. It's statistically so improbable that they would lose those three specific games, each by one point, as to be realistically impossible.
A projection of 8 wins seems reasonable, maybe a game on the high side, given the improvement they've shown of late. I would ballpark them at a floor of 5 conference wins and a ceiling of 9 at present.
Would be nice to get the scUM win at home to start conference play. Their best wins are marquette and smu. They don't have any overwhelming matchup advantages against the Hawks, unlike say the boilers.
Iowa has a reasonable shot to torpedo the one point loss prediction for this game.
A projection of 8 wins seems reasonable, maybe a game on the high side, given the improvement they've shown of late. I would ballpark them at a floor of 5 conference wins and a ceiling of 9 at present.
Would be nice to get the scUM win at home to start conference play. Their best wins are marquette and smu. They don't have any overwhelming matchup advantages against the Hawks, unlike say the boilers.
Iowa has a reasonable shot to torpedo the one point loss prediction for this game.
I'd happily take an 8-10 or 9-9 record with the overall youth on Iowa's team. Anything better would be gravy and happiness.
One thing I should of mentioned is if Peter Jok gets going (like vs memphis) he is capable of carrying this team to a victory or 2 on the road. He is capable of putting up HUGE numbers and he has played in every venue so he will have the comfortable factor going.
I agree with 5 being the lowest and I think 10 is max. I just do not see us winning 11 or 12 games, but if Im wrong I will be happy as hell.
I agree with 5 being the lowest and I think 10 is max. I just do not see us winning 11 or 12 games, but if Im wrong I will be happy as hell.
What a bunch of clowns ... Hello folks we are playing for a Big Ten Championship ... The goal is to win the rest of our games .. I would sure hate to think that our players are hoping to win 8, 10, games.. That's the problem with you guys... Think small and you will end up small ...
8-5.......Non conf (assuming we win Thur)
8-10.....B1G play (assuming KenPom is correct)
_________________________________________
16-15...Record heading into BTT
Would we have to win a couple games in the BTT to get to at least 18-16 in order to get to the NIT?
Our guard play or lack thereof will get exposed come conference play. Bohannon has done an admirable job, but we don't have a driver / creator in that spot and other teams do. We also have no viable backup, so the second unit will struggle to maintain leads / keep it close. That unit has the potential to give up 10-0 runs in the blink of an eye.
Iowa is on pace for that 8-10 B1G record.
Right now, Iowa is just a half game out of 5th place.
Current B1G Standings:
Big Ten Standings (End of Day, Jan 28, 2017)
TEAM Conf Record Overall Record
1 Maryland 7-1 19-2
1 Wisconsin 7-1 18-3
3 Northwestern 6-2 17-4
3 Purdue 6-2 17-4
5 Michigan 4-4 14-7
5 Indiana 4-4 14-7
5 Michigan State 4-4 12-9
8 Iowa 4-5 12-10
8 Penn State 4-5 12-10
10 Nebraska 3-5 9-11
11 Minnesota 3-6 15-7
11 Illinois 3-6 13-9
11 Ohio State 3-6 13-9
14 Rutgers 1-8 12-10
Right now, Iowa is just a half game out of 5th place.
Current B1G Standings:
Big Ten Standings (End of Day, Jan 28, 2017)
TEAM Conf Record Overall Record
1 Maryland 7-1 19-2
1 Wisconsin 7-1 18-3
3 Northwestern 6-2 17-4
3 Purdue 6-2 17-4
5 Michigan 4-4 14-7
5 Indiana 4-4 14-7
5 Michigan State 4-4 12-9
8 Iowa 4-5 12-10
8 Penn State 4-5 12-10
10 Nebraska 3-5 9-11
11 Minnesota 3-6 15-7
11 Illinois 3-6 13-9
11 Ohio State 3-6 13-9
14 Rutgers 1-8 12-10
And to think if we could only figure out how to shoot FT at 65% or higher we would end up with no less than 4 more victories than 8-10...
I find it strange we are such poor FT shooters. As we are not a bad shooting team? Cook misses a couple, then drains a 3pt. Go figure.
If we could shoot the free throws at just an average clip, and learn to block out(not a trait of Frans), 4 more B1G victories would be easy.
Win the games at Home and get one the road and they will have a 9-9 record. They just have to play with some sort of intensity on the road. Every road game they have come out scared and hesitant it seems like.
Also I am hoping that game last night gave Cook & Ellingson some more confidence to shoot the ball. They can hit the jump shots, they just need to take them.
Also I am hoping that game last night gave Cook & Ellingson some more confidence to shoot the ball. They can hit the jump shots, they just need to take them.
I think its been more than poor FT shooting that has ailed our Hawks. Poor and inconsistent defense has been our achilles heel all season. We are averaging 80.6 ppg (42nd in the country) but giving up 77.9 (300th in the country)
i will never understand why we have never been a good rebounding team under Fran
I think we all would like back the following 3 conference losses; it was only the Illinois game where our FT shooting stunk and where we got outrebounded.
Losses........../FT%/....Iowa Reb-Opp Reb
@Neb 90-93 / 77% / 51-42
vs Md, 76-84 / 76% / 40-37
@ ILL 64-76 / 44% / 36-38
