Iowa is 0-9 on two-point conversions

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Chad Leistikow reported those numbers. Here's the link: https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...i-michael-ojemudia-chad-leistikow/3983555002/

He added that the conversion rate for all of college football is about 40 percent. At Iowa it's 0 percent.
Seven of those 9 consecutive failures have come under BF.

Missing those conversions is costing Iowa games, and yet there has been almost no mention of it. Most teams have special plays, even trick plays, to use when they MUST get those two points. But not Iowa. It's a grab bag, just like the offense in general, and it's just as effective.

Anyway, that streak of nine straight 2-point failures is just one more indictment of what's happening with BF's Hawkeye offense.

 

[desihawk]

Without looking i would venture that this streak began with wadleys departure.

 

[FreddyUI]

During the game, I was thinking we should line up for a QB sneak but with wide outs. If PSU was not defending it just go with that.

It was obvious Iowa did not have a set 2pt conversion play.

 

[iahawks10]

I was going to start a thread asking when was the last time Iowa converted a 2 pt conversion.

I couldn’t remember, but I was thinking it was on some kind of trick play.

 

[iahawks10]

Without looking i would venture that this streak began with wadleys departure.

What am I missing? You think Iowa has attempted 9 two point conversions in the last year and a half of football?

 

[H4wkfan4life]

What am I missing? You think Iowa has attempted 9 two point conversions in the last year and a half of football?

it says BF was around for the last 7, so 7 in 2.5 seasons....

as for the OP, i'd need to rewatch to see how much bf is to blame

 

[HawkAlum2002]

I was going to start a thread asking when was the last time Iowa converted a 2 pt conversion.

I couldn’t remember, but I was thinking it was on some kind of trick play.

Leshun Daniels at Minnesota in 2016 in the fourth quarter. Iowa won 14-7.

 

[Irvin 88]

I'll tell you why that is....with the exception of a couple years under the Overrated One, nothing EVER comes easy for Iowa on offense....everything looks hard to them.

 

[SoonerBeAHawk]

Taking the 40% conversion rate from the OP then the failure rate is obviously 60%.

If I remember my stats correctly the probability of consecutive events happening is their individual probabilities multiplied.

In this case 0.6 × 0.6 ... ×0.6 = (0.6) to the ninth which equals ...

0.010077696 or almost exactly ... 1% !!!

 

[iahawks10]

I watched just a few minutes of the ND St / UNI game before heading to IC.

ND St scores on their opening possession and then line up to go for two. I’m not sure their exact formation (any help appreciated), but it looked like 3 down lineman and everyone spread out wide besides the qb and rb. The qb takes the snap and nearly walked into the end zone.

/CSB

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Leshun Daniels at Minnesota in 2016 in the fourth quarter. Iowa won 14-7.

Ok...forgot about that. I remember 2008 @ Illinois. Disgusting they even lost that game.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Taking the 40% conversion rate from the OP then the failure rate is obviously 60%.

If I remember my stats correctly the probability of consecutive events happening is their individual probabilities multiplied.

In this case 0.6 × 0.6 ... ×0.6 = (0.6) to the ninth which equals ...

0.010077696 or almost exactly ... 1% !!!

I don't get what you're doing with all those numbers, but 0-9 is 0 percent. I'm not good at math, but I'm pretty confident in making that assertion.

 

[SoonerBeAHawk]

I don't get what you're doing with all those numbers, but 0-9 is 0 percent. I'm not good at math, but I'm pretty confident in making that assertion.

Yeah, I guess I didn't clearly state that.

Just trying to figure the probability beforehand of an average program failing to convert nine times in a row.

Fwiw, I say "program" as I realize the 0-9 involves several Iowa teams.

Hopefully my math is better than my communication skills so far in this thread.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

I don't get what you're doing with all those numbers, but 0-9 is 0 percent. I'm not good at math, but I'm pretty confident in making that assertion.

If you (or a team, in this instance) tries to accomplish something with a 40% success rate, and do this 9 times in a row, there is a 99% chance that they will be successful at least once.

In other words, Iowa being unsuccessful for 9 consecutive 2-point conversion attempts is amazingly incompetent. Only a 1% chance that they wouldn't have accidentally accomplished it at least once.

 

[HatesPretenders]

Chad Leistikow reported those numbers. Here's the link: https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...i-michael-ojemudia-chad-leistikow/3983555002/

He added that the conversion rate for all of college football is about 40 percent. At Iowa it's 0 percent.
Seven of those 9 consecutive failures have come under BF.

Missing those conversions is costing Iowa games, and yet there has been almost no mention of it. Most teams have special plays, even trick plays, to use when they MUST get those two points. But not Iowa. It's a grab bag, just like the offense in general, and it's just as effective.

Anyway, that streak of nine straight 2-point failures is just one more indictment of what's happening with BF's Hawkeye offense.

Ya? So what? Kirk tied for the B1G championship 15 years ago buddy!!!

 

[CJ_Lucky]

Didn’t we do a swinging gate type 2 pt conversion while Brian was here?

 

[SoonerBeAHawk]

Didn’t we do a swinging gate type 2 pt conversion while Brian was here?

Nah, you're thinking of the time Shooter was here and we ran the ol' picket fence at 'em.

There was that crazy formation and pass to the center against OSU, but that was a FG try.

So basically, as usual, I'm not much help.

 

[iahawks10]

Didn’t we do a swinging gate type 2 pt conversion while Brian was here?

That’s what I was thinking too, with a Rastetter pass. Mainly, why I didn’t start a thread on Sunday. That must have been for a TD. Not thinking of the OSU game.

 

[kcgolfer]

Chad Leistikow reported those numbers. Here's the link: https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...i-michael-ojemudia-chad-leistikow/3983555002/

He added that the conversion rate for all of college football is about 40 percent. At Iowa it's 0 percent.
Seven of those 9 consecutive failures have come under BF.

Missing those conversions is costing Iowa games, and yet there has been almost no mention of it. Most teams have special plays, even trick plays, to use when they MUST get those two points. But not Iowa. It's a grab bag, just like the offense in general, and it's just as effective.

Anyway, that streak of nine straight 2-point failures is just one more indictment of what's happening with BF's Hawkeye offense.

Hayden was really good at this. He always said they had 3 different plays ready for every game. Saturday we looked lost and then there was the terrible throw from Stanley.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

That’s what I was thinking too, with a Rastetter pass. Mainly, why I didn’t start a thread on Sunday. That must have been for a TD. Not thinking of the OSU game.

It was a run play vs Minnesota for a TD. Rastetter lined up in shotgun at the four yard line then the center flipped it over to Hockensen behind a wall of blockers lined to the right side rather than snapping it between his legs to the "qb".

 

[L. Wade Childress]

Sample size alert

 

[thirdandpunting]

0-9 is enough to know something is broken

Sample size alert

 

[Bank of Hawk]

This seems like the streak in 2010-2013ish where opponents were converting fake punts on the hawks left and right. There seems to always be some part of the game that Iowa just forgets about, or just decides it’s not worth game planning for until it becomes a glaringly obvious weakness.

 

[yrunvs]

0-9? I'd say their due.

 

[24 so far]

0-9 at anything is bad. That is all.

 

[TJHawkeye]

Our line just can't push the defense back. Not strong enough or bad fundamentals? It starts and ends with line play.

 

[Pepperman]

0-9 at anything is bad. That is all.

Well, it is UNLIKELY anyway, but we don't know for sure if it is bad or just unlucky...

*IF* the true odds are 40% for a conversion (meaning 60% failure rate) and these are actually Iowa's odds as well, it may not actually be bad at all. It may be that we just have had a crazy run of the 60% outcome occurring 9 times in a row.

Let's just say we have a coin that we flip 500 times and we get 250 heads, 250 tails. It being a coin, and us trying this 500 times, we know with almost perfect certainty that it is a true 50-50 probability. This coin is not being coached, influenced, thought to be a "choker" or "clutch", or anything. Let's flip it 9 times starting now. It is certainly possible that we will get 9 straight failures to call the coin correctly. Going into it, this seems an incredibly remote possibility, but we all should know in our brain that it is possible.

That said, what I'm picking up here in terms of the mood (and I'd share it) is that none of us actually believe Iowa's offense is constructed in such as a way as to have a 40% probability of success on 2-pt conversion tries. Maybe it is only 20%, in which case 9 failures of 80% probability ends up being still a pretty long shot outcome.

 

[steventrelain]

Does anyone have stats on our opponents % when they try for a 2-point conversion?

 

[pink shizzle]

Can't go 0-10 if we don't get touchdowns

 

[HawkAlum2002]

Does anyone have stats on our opponents % when they try for a 2-point conversion?

Going back to the start of 2016, opponents are 1 for 5. Nebraska got 2 last year to tie the game at 28 before Iowa won on the field goal.