Brought in a couple of transfers that are what you have been asking for and still can't be even a little bit positive. It must suck to be you, as if we didn't already know it.
Iowa Men 17th in the B1G this season???
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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Thus my comment about blind resume and sticking at a power conference program for 14 years. I can see a 6 of 10 for regular season. But it's the lack of anything significant post season for that many years which would lead to most power conference coaches getting the axe by now.
His list is wack for more than just the Iowa placement.
Iowa is not missing the cut for the first 18 team BTT. That's not going to happen. We all know that.
Michigan will finish a lot higher than 16. If they land jamir Watkins, a lot, lot higher.
Indiana will finish higher than 11, and USC is too low at 15.
Wisconsin will finish significantly lower than 3d, and I doubt very much that Illinois finishes in the top 4. Minnesota and Penn State will be 17 or 18.
The addition of our formerly pac12 brothers really will throw an interesting twist into the season. Imagine a regular season title decided by an upset in Seattle at 12 am central time....
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BirdistheWord
HB Heisman
Aw shucks, we have low self esteem and are thrilled to never have coaches leave
Don’t be bad and you will make bank!
In the academic literature it's known as Lickliter Syndrome.
Predicting upcoming years has become much more of a crap shoot than pre-NIL and portal chaos. Just because you get some highly regarded transfers in, does not mean that team will jell into a good team. For example, how many fans, even IU fans, really have confidence that Mike Woodson can coach...
I think Iowa got a couple of portal additions that can help them be a more complete team. I especially like that Thelwell was the leader on a very successful team. Leadership on and off the court is often overlooked as important to success. Traore seems to have athleticism and talent, and was an especially important addition when it wasn't certain Payton would be back. Iowa has a very nice young core returning, and that isn't the case for most of the B1G, who had more coming and going in the portal. I think having guys who have had time together, should make it easier to play well as a team. As I have said over and over, this team has more balance--shooting/ athleticism, offense/defense, interior/mid-range/outside--than Fran has had. Whether he can put that together and actually play all aspects of the game (not just shooting) well, remains to be seen. An injury to a guard or Freeman would make it much more difficult.
Really not sold on either of our transfers but I think Fran has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to player evaluations.
If he thinks they'll be effective, it's more likely than not that they'll be effective.
We'll just have to see when they go live.
I think you are less positive about what is returning on the team than I am. Payton, Freeman and Dix are top 20 players in the B1G, and the other players returning have shown that they definitely have the potential to be much better, if given playing time. I am especially high on Dembele, who I think is going to be a great interior defender and rebounder, and he also has a nice looking shot. In the last couple of years, Fran actually has recruited some guys who like to play defense and rebound. Whether that will develop into a more well-rounded team than we have seen remains to be seen.
How much will experience matter?
Establish a defensive identity and maybe you have something.
Penn State should be competing for a league title, and Illinois should finish in the basement and miss the Big Ten Tourney. lol
Returning a lot of players from what was a good team the year before? That's a good predictor of success.
However, returning a lot of players from what was a bad team without adding any difference makers is seldom a recipe for improved results.
In order to believe otherwise you have to believe in "just so" stories. For example, that the returning players on your team will improve significantly more than the returning players on other league teams. Or, that overall, the league will be significantly weaker than it was the year before.
There are really no good reasons to believe any of these things.
Our additions could very well turn out to be actual needle moving players. We'll just have to wait and see. Barring that, I don't hold out hope for significantly better results than last year.
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Fran just needs a few more years. It’s only year 15.
You consistently don't consider that underclassmen usually get better. Except Payton, Iowa's returning nucleus should all be significantly better this year. I think that is especially true at 4/5 with Freeman and Dembele. It is the weakness of the Iowa interior on defense and the boards that really hurt them last year. Dix could become a top player in the league, now that Fran is giving him the green light. Whether Harding and Thelwell are an improvement over Perkins, remains to be seen.
Addition by subtraction on defense on the interior. Not sure about the perimeter.
Exactly. There's a long history of coaches who spent 14 years at a power conference school with no post season success and then had a blazing run to the Final Four. Right?
"Addition by subtraction" is another one of those 'just so' stories fans like to comfort themselves with.
We lost 3 guys who had experience competing in the Big Ten and replaced them with two guys who don't. It's not a given that these new guys are automatically going to improve our defense. It just isn't. They could be better. They could be pretty much the same ( my bet). They could be worse.
I know one thing -- Fran didn't recruit them as defensive specialists because that's not something Fran does. Ever.
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Most players typically improve as they get stronger, and more experienced. This is true for players in general, however, not just the ones who play for Iowa.
Will our core improve enough compared with the rest of the teams in the league to turn what were losses last year into wins this year? Who knows. I don't think the answer is anywhere close to obvious.
B1G teams likely to be worse than last year: Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Penn State.
Teams likely to be better than last year: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Rutgers, UCLA, Ohio State, Maryland, Washington, USC.
Of the teams that are expected to be worse, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Oregon are still rated ahead of Iowa by the prognosticators. Plus, Iowa State is expected to be top ten good again.
Is our record likely to be significantly better than last year? At this point, I'm just not sold that it will be.
The league might get 7-9 bids. Can Iowa get one? Of course. I just don't see 9 teams in this league that we are clearly better than right now. Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern, ... What are the other 5?
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One of the 3 being replaced didn't play on the defensive end most of the time, so improvement in those 25 min is a sure bet. Dembele played enough to show he will be a better defensive player and rebounder than Krikke. Replacing Perkins with Thelwell and Harding is not necessarily a gain on defense. In games where Perkins was fully engaged, it is probably a loss, but Tony also had games where he didn't seem to be that interested. So, I see a huge gain on the interior, and maybe a slight loss on the perimeter.
You seem to be coming around that Iowa isn't the 17th best team going into next year. You're right that a team can actually be better and that not translate into more wins. I think the teams bringing in basically a whole new team, like Illannoy and Michigan, are even harder to predict. The one team who I might put on your list of who Iowa is better than is Wisky, which lost the core of their team, except their center.
BirdistheWord
HB Heisman
PMac Always got preferential minutes that were not warranted. I know the kid has been through a lot but he was essentially “blocking” the developmental opportunities for other guys. Yes, there will be unproven guys taking his minutes but their ceilings are exponentially higher vs PMac who had clearly reached his, and was one of the worst defenders in recent memory.
It's not surprising, in fact it's expected, that on an Iowa basketball forum there is a bias that the Iowa players who remain on the roster will improve more than those on the other B1G teams rosters year over year. However, I don't think there's any evidence that's the case.
I've already said that I think they'll be better than 17th in the league. I also wouldn't be at all surprised if they finish behind teams that had heavy roster turnover.
The unknowns are even more pronounced now in the era of massive transfer numbers.
With enough cash to buy the right players and a coach with a good eye for roster construction a complete rebuild to a winning team in one off season is absolutely a possibility.
While I'm sure coaches would like to have at least some continuity year over year, I don't think the impact in 2024 is as important as it was even 5 years ago.
I've already said that I think they'll be better than 17th in the league. I also wouldn't be at all surprised if they finish behind teams that had heavy roster turnover.
The unknowns are even more pronounced now in the era of massive transfer numbers.
With enough cash to buy the right players and a coach with a good eye for roster construction a complete rebuild to a winning team in one off season is absolutely a possibility.
While I'm sure coaches would like to have at least some continuity year over year, I don't think the impact in 2024 is as important as it was even 5 years ago.
BirdistheWord
HB Heisman
I think it’s more a function of believing the guys playing majority of minutes are better, more skilled and slightly more athletic than the guys from last year. How they stack up to the rest of the league is a fantastic question but much harder to draw conclusions for average fan.
I agree on your take on the rest of the league. A team's players can take a leap in development, year to year. However, one may also look at the league as a whole. Have players been added elsewhere to cause your team matchup concerns? Is the strength of the conference above or equal to last year? As your team may have improved, others probably have improved as well. Here we are again, with questions about how we match up vs other teams. You're right, it's hard to draw conclusions where we will finish the season without seeing a sample of what talent we have. Toss in the makeup of the schedule, and it's anyone's guess. Until we have a program that's tried and true on post-season success, speaking for myself, I can only speculate at best.
I've already said several times that Iowa won't be missing the Big Ten Tourney. That's not happening.
That's different from thinking that this team is a lock for the tourney. I am not sold on that at all.
Fair nepo point.
"exponentially higher" ceilings? Not so sure about that though.
My issue is the fact that its year 14 or 15 for Fran this upcoming season, and people are perfectly fine that Iowa will 99.99% likely have absolutely no chance to be a threat to finish the season with a double-bye start in the B1GT, let alone winning the conference title.
That as long as Iowa finishes near the upper part of the bottom 3rd of the conference, it'll all be A-OK.
People can be fine and happy with that for whatever whacked reason they want, but Iowa should be a constant Top4 finisher in the conference at this point in Fran's career as Hawkeyes MBB head coach as well as a near constant fringe Elite 8 threat in NCAA Tourneys also. Instead, Iowa scrapes by with just getting invites and the very rare occasional excitement of a 2nd round exit.
That as long as Iowa finishes near the upper part of the bottom 3rd of the conference, it'll all be A-OK.
People can be fine and happy with that for whatever whacked reason they want, but Iowa should be a constant Top4 finisher in the conference at this point in Fran's career as Hawkeyes MBB head coach as well as a near constant fringe Elite 8 threat in NCAA Tourneys also. Instead, Iowa scrapes by with just getting invites and the very rare occasional excitement of a 2nd round exit.
Wait, 3 of the top 20 players in an 18 team league are from Iowa?
Have you looked at rosters of other BT schools? I’m guessing you haven’t looked at the Illinois roster, for example. Illinois picked up 5-star Will Riley today. The projected 12th man is a top 150 recruit. A lot of talent. Still has to come together as a team but Underwood is pretty darn good at that. Best record in the Big Ten over the last 5 seasons.
Maybe a slight exaggeration, but all 3 could become all B1G.
Why is that? Iowa has one of the weakest recruiting bases, and now is nowhere near the top 4 in NIL$$$. If you look at advantages/disadvantages for the different schools, Fran has overachieved, until you get to postseason, where he has been a failure.
I'm a little insulted at the suggestion that I haven't looked at other league rosters. I'm the guy always harping on looking at other teams rosters.
I have looked at Illinois roster. I know about Riley. Congrats. He's a lottery type talent but realistically.....the kid is 6'9 and weighs 175 lbs. If you're really counting on a big contribution from him this year, I think you'll be disappointed. He might be too big of a defensive liability to even put on the floor.
Is Ivisic even going to get a visa?
You have 7 top 50 players on your roster. That's a lot of dudes. Still....even if all your guys actually make it to campus, it's a totally new and inexperienced team thrown together out of the desperation of losing 90% of your scoring. Underwood is indeed good at constructing teams but this looks closer to your season before last (at best) than a repeat of last season. I don't see a top 4 finish. I don't think that's a crazy take at all.
Now...if you can keep the entire team together (doubtful for Underwood), and add Fears next year, that's a legit final four squad. I hope we don't see it. lol
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There is no guarantee of this, whatever year the coach is. Izzo is the one guy you might point to and he has down years too. Constant top 4 finisher is not a sure thing anywhere especially in the BIG.
Even Izzo only has one top 4 finish in the last four seasons, when MSU finished 4th in 2022-23. The year they played one less game by not making it up. The other three years they finished 6th, 7th, and 8th.
Izzo and MSU have been the consistent team (Purdue likely past them) but I had to look up to see how many top fours MSU had too.
You’ve clearly got an axe to grind here Captain American. As I believe @HoustonREDHawk said we’ve got 3 players returning that are top 20 players in the league. Lots of new faces on almost every team. Freeman is going to be a beast, and nobody works harder than him. Dix doing nothing but getting better as well. And Fran has actually upgraded our athleticism with transfers and new recruits. Look, I’ve certainly got doubts about Frans ability to coach defense but on paper with returning players were a top 5-6 team.
Except that that's only true in the minds of some Iowa fans who have absolutely no idea what kind of talent/experience other teams have. Actually believing that 3 of the top 20 players in an 18 team league play for Iowa (lol) is an indication of that.
The analytics like Torvik and Kenpom disagree with you. The people who get paid to know this stuff disagree with you.
I know, I know...they're all wrong and have axes to grind (lol) and you're right because...reasons...
Ok.
?
No Iowa coach has come anywhere close to this level of consistent excellence at any time in the last 70 years, yet you're expecting Fran to do it?
Why?
Seems delusional.
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So, and again, I'll reiterate that I'm far from an Iowa homer. Sure, some of these guys are bringing in entire new teams of players. And with that a lot of them are highly ranked guys. And along w/that there's coaching changes at a few of these schools. With that you never know how that's going to go and how the teams are going to gel. When a team like Iowa is bringing back the 5th or 6th highest scoring amount of all the teams I think that means something. And I also think players improve. I think both Freeman and Dix are nowhere near their ceiling and Peyton is what he is, a very consistent scorer. Now, our lack of depth at guard could come back to bite us in the ass. I'm not sure how Torvik or Kenpom can even make true predictions when some teams are replacing 85% of their roster. I guess we will see in the end at the end of the season who's right.
