It is earnings report time...

[unIowa]

How much will the market fall in the coming weeks and months?

I think we got to around 18.4k Dows at the previous bottom, will we shoot below that once it becomes obvious that full scale reopening won't be possible and we will be putting out various coronavirus fires over the next 12 - 18 months?

 

[luvmyhawks]

Depends on what opens and what those fires are. We stay like we are now for 12-18 months, Dow will sink to 10k and we will go into a full blown global depression. Soooo...... what exactly are you hoping for?

side note: why are you tracking the Dow?

 

[mcgrawfsu]

Most investors have already taken earnings into their consideration for investing. Additionally, quite a few companies have already adjusted their earnings projections. Also, I haven’t heard from a single person, anywhere, that they are expecting a full blown reopening.

Basically, if anyone is investing without already taking your points into consideration they are going to lose money. We may hit 18.4 again, but it won’t be unexpected. And if we do, you can be sure there will be a ton of new investors ready to jump in.

 

[cfbfan23]

I just can't be upbeat about the market right now. I'm surprised the market has held up so well.

There's a ton of companies that have no idea what their future revenues' and earnings' are going to be. Or if their business models' will even work anymore. May of them also have a ton of debt.

We're in an election year where the incumbent is taking the Office to new lows (from an operational appearance to anyone in the world who does not watch Fox news). The contender will likely offer ideas/programs that have not historically been embraced by Wall Street and American business, in general. Pick your poison. I just don't see much upside.

From a purely market perspective, I just don't see how we'll be making new highs for a long long time. If they do, I think they will be short-lived. The case for the downside is much more realistic, IMO. I just see a very volatile/choppy market environment with a general downward trend. I'm comfortable with a lowered equity allocation for a while.

 

[markfromj]

side note: why are you tracking the Dow?

LOL.

 

[Bank of Hawk]

The initial shock has already ran its course. Look for 2-3% swings down or up on most days.

 

[Capital1Hawk]

How much will the market fall in the coming weeks and months?

I think we got to around 18.4k Dows at the previous bottom, will we shoot below that once it becomes obvious that full scale reopening won't be possible and we will be putting out various coronavirus fires over the next 12 - 18 months?

GS predicts 3k S&P at year-end and I would take that.... I am shocked the market is not tanking more as it's all false hope right now. I sold off way too many on Friday but took a nice ST gain before summer hits however regret selling 100 shares of TSLA. All I know is that if Biden is elected, there will be a large sell off by year-end knowing he is going to jack up taxes on investment income. Nothing looks rosy this year.

 

[hydro2.0]

The market will swing day-to-day but won’t touch 18k. The initial shock of the virus has run the course and with “better” news ahead, hopefully the market will react positively to less uncertainty

 

[Chishawk1425]

The DOW is so far out of touch with the actual economy and was artificially propped up so long by Trump who really knows.

 

[BondHawk]

Most investors have already taken earnings into their consideration for investing. Additionally, most companies have already withdrawn their earnings projections because they have no idea what things are going to look like on the other side of this. Also, I haven’t heard from a single person, anywhere, that they are expecting a full blown reopening.

FIFY

 

[86Hawkeye]

The initial shock has already ran its course. Look for 2-3% swings down or up on most days.

Assuming coronavirus news is roughly as predicted from now on.

 

[Rifler]

The market is riding in a holding pattern right now in anticipation of a return to normalcy occurring sometime over the next 8-12 months,.. If things go according to plan the market will rise,.. If things go to shit the market will follow...

 

[unIowa]

The market is riding in a holding pattern right now in anticipation of a return to normalcy occurring sometime over the next 8-12 months,.. If things go according to plan the market will rise,.. If things go to shit the market will follow...

Yes and I think secondary waves, if they happen quickly, will cause things to go to shit. Right now Wall Street seems to be drunk on the liquidity that is loaded in the cannon that no one is going to be able to use for a while. It is bizarre but I am up 5.05% in my TD account as we speak. I have some huge wins on stuff I purchased the past few weeks, one up 80% but then again I bought a bunch of LK coffee only to have that thing tank after it was found that they were booking fake financial transactions...effing Chinese effed us again with that one.

 

[Sooner-Be-Dead]

The market is riding in a holding pattern right now in anticipation of a return to normalcy occurring sometime over the next 8-12 months,.. If things go according to plan the market will rise,.. If things go to shit the market will follow...

I would say the market is going up on confidence that business will be fine in a couple of months. S&P p/e of 21 in a recession. Ok then.

 

[Rifler]

I would say the market is going up on confidence that business will be fine in a couple of months.

I don't think any reasonable person is expecting business to be "fine" in two months,.. If we had a vaccine today, business wouldn't be "fine" in two months...

 

[Sooner-Be-Dead]

I don't think any reasonable person is expecting business to be "fine" in two months,.. If we had a vaccine today, business wouldn't be "fine" in two months...

Then investors keep lowering their expectations for equity returns. The market seems more bubbly now than two months ago, before the severity of the covid was known.

 

[GOHOX69]

My stocks have almost rebounded back. Impressive!

 

[noleclone2]

For anyone who was curled up in the fetal position three weeks ago, now may be a good time to take a little of that profit baked in the market since 2009. I would be shocked if it does not again get into the teens. You can't have what is happening right now and a market only lose 15-20% . It is being propped up but eventually the earning numbers and jobless will erode even this. Our entire economy is driven by consumer spending and consumer confidence and there is none. Now I do think it can bounce back once we start returning to normalcy but we have a few more painful weeks and maybe months ahead.

 

[Rifler]

Then investors keep lowering their expectations for equity returns. The market seems more bubbly now than two months ago, before the severity of the covid was known.

That's because two months ago the world was potentially coming to an end,.. now it just has the potential to be seriously phucked up...

 

[86Hawkeye]

The market is responding well today based on the early earnings reports.

 

[Uwe.Blab]

Hmm...based on performance they keep saying investors have factored in all the risk but I do not see how that is possible when we really do not know what the long term effects are.

I have a small amount I was wanting to invest this week, then also whenever i get my stimulus money, but no idea what to think-- what is a good buy right now??

 

[mnole03]

Hmm...based on performance they keep saying investors have factored in all the risk but I do not see how that is possible when we really do not know what the long term effects are.

Put your brain away. It’s all factored in. There’s no uncertainty. Everything is awesome.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Hmm...based on performance they keep saying investors have factored in all the risk but I do not see how that is possible when we really do not know what the long term effects are.

Me either. It’s almost like companies are saying “we have no way to know what the rest of the year holds so we’re going to take down guidance” and people are ignoring that.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Me either. It’s almost like companies are saying “we have no way to know what the rest of the year holds so we’re going to take down guidance” and people are ignoring that.

Companies don’t know what the future holds for the remainder of the year. Most are only looking at the short-term to make it as long as possible before having to shutdown or do massive layoffs. Even if we’ve hit the top of the curve everywhere the economy is going to get a lot worse. You’re going to start seeing more shortages from international suppliers, then domestic suppliers before hitting the final manufacturer.

I will not be surprised if my wife gets furloughed or even permanently laid off. They’ve already done one round of furloughs with more everyday as well as everyone else taking a pay cut for 6 months. My organization hasn’t seen a hit yet locally, but it will in the next 2 months as orders start drying up, only thing saving us right now is increased orders from grocery, medical and other very essential businesses. At some point that dries up.

 

[seminole97]

You can't have what is happening right now and a market only lose 15-20% . It is being propped up but eventually the earning numbers and jobless will erode even this.

“What is happening right now” is the Fed is announced they’ll print trillions - QEinfinity.

Now explain to me how Bernanke is wrong and a ‘determined’ government can’t raise the nominal value of the DJIA.

“Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.”