Kenpom
- Thread starter SotaHawk87
- Start date
Up to #4 for the hawks. I think Kenpom will play a massive role in the committees eyes this year FWIW. I think they know the NET wasn’t built for these home and away circumstances and a difference in games played.
Efficiency is a part of the NET rankings so Pomeroy was already a big factor. I have seen nothing to indicate that Pomeroy or the other efficiency based rankings will be more of a factor this year compared to others.
We're going to end up (just like with football) resumes of teams with very different numbers of games played against various levels of competition. To think that statistical analysis, especially one as mainstream as KenPom these days won't be an increased factor is just not accepting reality.
KenPom will likely even better mirror the NET this year, as I believe this is the first year that the NET is dropping down to 2 components from the initial 5. However, when you're trying to equate 2 resumes, a tool like KenPom can be very enlightening to determine how close teams may actually be.
I was just perusing KenPom and noticed a couple of things.
First, the Iowa/Gonzaga game. The Zags have a much better AdjD than Iowa. However, between having the #1 and #2 teams in AdjO, plus the #10 and #26 teams in tempo (possessions per 40min (adjusted for opponent), it looks to be fast paced and high scoring. KenPom has the predicted total of 171 pts, 87-84, which is really, really high for their model.
Second, as it stands, Iowa has three games left against teams outside the top 50. Two against NW (#69) and one against NE (#115). Their last 10 games...#115, #16, #21, #15, #28, #20, #7, #49, #21, #14, #7 with six of those on the road. It's going to be a grind, but hopefully one that helps them in March.
First, the Iowa/Gonzaga game. The Zags have a much better AdjD than Iowa. However, between having the #1 and #2 teams in AdjO, plus the #10 and #26 teams in tempo (possessions per 40min (adjusted for opponent), it looks to be fast paced and high scoring. KenPom has the predicted total of 171 pts, 87-84, which is really, really high for their model.
Second, as it stands, Iowa has three games left against teams outside the top 50. Two against NW (#69) and one against NE (#115). Their last 10 games...#115, #16, #21, #15, #28, #20, #7, #49, #21, #14, #7 with six of those on the road. It's going to be a grind, but hopefully one that helps them in March.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but as it gets closer to 10 games played in the new season, last seasons ratings gradually drop off before being eliminated entirely. I'm not sure if it's a linear path (our DEff considering only the last 2 games of last year + 8 this year), but I'm fairly certain last year's stay baked in for the first 10 games in some form or fashion.
#3 in Kenny.. Nova only going to continue to be hurt by not playing games.
Iowa state is now classified as a quadrant 4 win.....
What was Xavier Foster thinking ??
What was Xavier Foster thinking ??
Iowa now #3 by 2 full points.. basically these is saying there’s 1 A and 1 B in Gonzaga Baylor and then 2 Iowa then 3B Villanova. Can’t afford a home loss but any road loss against top 20 likely wouldn’t phase us..
That give away at Minnesota really hurts in the grand scheme of things but not as much after seeing Michigan get beat by about 20 there this weekend.
Kenpom now projects Iowa winning the Big Ten outright with a 14-4 record.
I say take it and end the regular season now......
I say take it and end the regular season now......
It only hurts if it costs Iowa the Big 10 title. Losing to Minnesota in and of itself is not a bad loss. Minnesota is a good team, especially at home. But losing a game that Iowa led by 7 with 40 seconds left makes it a very tough loss.
Agree that highly unlikely that Iowa makes it past Gonzaga and Baylor even if Iowa had beaten MInnesota. Gonzaga probably won't lose in their conference, and Baylor is not going to lose many Big 12 games. I believe they still play Kansas twice, Texas once and TTech again, but Iowa will lose more games too.
I mean I agree, we win that game 9 out of 10 times in that scenario, but if we take care of business the rest of the way we are a 1 seed. At worst the top 2 seed which avoids Baylor or Gonzaga.
He's taking time off for the rest of the year and then will transfer to Iowa where he can start at center and be on a really good "TEAM".
We need some intel ops up there whispering nightly into his ear, "iowa" "iowa" iowa" in his ear, an infinite echo that subliminally sends him in the right direction.
but what about playing Wisconsin Feb 18 & March 7?
Meh.......f*** Wisconsin.but what about playing Wisconsin Feb 18 & March 7?
Team Rankings also has IOWA at 16-4, predictive winning at Michigan of 58% and at Illinois at 55%.
Iowa at #4.. likely still 5 or 6 in NET. If we win our next 5 which I think Iowa will those will probably stay the same but be super solid.
Pathetic. If we even had an average defense, we would take the Big Ten in a walk.
#118 on D has been a 45 place drop in just 4 games.. that screams second round upset in a 3 v 6 game.. we have to HAVE to figure out how to get that thing back in the 70s
Bohannon has been a great shooter over his career. No question.
But if he gets heavy minutes I don't see them getting into the 70s for D efficiency.
It's hardly all on JBO. We just don't have any good defenders in the starting five. We have a couple that aren't bad. That's just a fact. Ever since the B1G season started the opponents get open shots and lots of second chances when the starting five is in there. The complexion of the game changes completely when the second unit comes in. JT, Nunge, Keegan, Perkins and Ulis are all better defenders at their positions than anyone in the starting five. It's always been a question of whether they provide enough offense. Tonight they were better on that end as well.
Ask and you shall receive. Since Ohio State, where we actually played decent man to man defense against a surprisingly good Ohio State offense, Iowa has allowed: 67, 66, and 58
