The Hawks are 8-2 after clawing their way to excruciatingly close back to back wins against the Big 10 west's bottom feeders. To the outside viewers, this team must be legit. Hawk fans understand the team didn't play OSU, Mich, or Mich State. We saw the 2 QB sneaks from the 3 yard line this week, the two fullback dives in previous weeks, etc. We understand 8-2 can be deceiving, even in the mighty Big 10, with zero wins over anyone with a pulse, let alone a Top 25 opponent.
The Hawks are favored in their final 2 games and are likely to finish 10-2. If everything plays out, Iowa and Wisconsin will tie for the Big 10 West title, with Wisconsin winning the tie breaker and playing in the championship game. A top 10 ranking and a New Years Six bowl game is a strong possibility because the big boys of the conference still have to play each other and will knock each other down.
Should we root for Wisconsin to stumble? If they do, Iowa backs into the championship game without having beat any of the league's top 5 teams. A Wisconsin loss means the Hawks win the west outright (out of default). That means a trip to Indy as a 25 point underdog to OSU. Is an outright title vs a tie for the title an important distinction? With an outright title, the Hawks would likely get annihilated and finish the season ranked 20th. They'd fall behind OSU, Mich, Mich State, Wisc, and possibly Purdue/Penn State in the bowl pecking order and play an unranked opponent in some inconsequential bowl.
So what's better: (i) Wisconsin loses and Iowa backs into an opportunity to play Ohio State despite losing to the top two teams in our own division; or (ii) Wisconsin wins out, Iowa ties for the west title and finishes the regular season ranked in the Top 10. The Hawks could be "Big 10 champs" and go out and win the Orange or Fiesta Bowl...without having to play Ohio State.
Most years, I'd pick the Big 10 championship game. This year, Ohio State is a playoff contender while Iowa is putting up 17 points in pillow fights against Northwestern. It would be better to still win the west title but let Wisconsin take the obligatory beating by the east.
A game like the Orange Bowl brings a month of hype, national media attention, and recruiting buzz. With a month of preparation and a good matchup, we could actually win an 11th game and finish ranked in the top 5. Iowa would end the year on a positive note going into next season with all of the horses coming back at QB, RB, TE, WR, etc. and a pre-season Top 10 ranking?
My vote is win out, take a share of the title, and win the Orange Bowl.