Michigan

[SDHawkDoc]

of course, KenPom says 40% chance for Iowa to win on Thursday. If Iowa has a great shooting game, they are probably going to win no matter what Michigan does. If Garza draws 10+ fouls on Michigan's centers, there is very little chance for Michigan to win.

That's fair. 60% chance of um win, 40% chance of Iowa win seems reasonable.

There are a multitude of assumptions that go into the prediction. If the two you bring up happen, then the likelihood of the final outcome probably falls in Iowa's favor.
I think um has enough good perimeter defense to make it hard for Iowa to have that great shooting game. And, they can afford to give up 10 fouls between the two back up guys that play some 5 to keep Dickinson out of trouble.
Still, Iowa has more than just a puncher's chance and it would hardly be the biggest upset of the year if they win it.

 

[sbhawk64]

You know we're both top 10 teams and #3 and #4 on kenpom right? Why does everyone think we don't stand a chance? It's not like we're some .500 club looking for our biggest upset of the season.

Because Michigan is better at every position other than center. Mich also has a above average center so Garza will get his points but probably not dominate. Mich is the best team in the country with few weaknesses. Iowa has weakness of guard play and will find it very hard to get a clean look at the basket. now you know

 

[Nohawknamesleft]

I still think Fran has Michigan’s number. The games I’ve watched it seems pretty even then Michigan takes over about 10 minutes in. I think we have a solid chance.

 

[24 so far]

Because Michigan is better at every position other than center. Mich also has a above average center so Garza will get his points but probably not dominate. Mich is the best team in the country with few weaknesses. Iowa has weakness of guard play and will find it very hard to get a clean look at the basket. now you know

They lost to Minnesota. Now you know. Did I do that right?

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[RocknRollface]

You know we're both top 10 teams and #3 and #4 on kenpom right? Why does everyone think we don't stand a chance? It's not like we're some .500 club looking for our biggest upset of the season.

Because Michigan will make life hell on Iowas guards.

They're the best on ball defensive team I've seen this year.

Be prepared for a ton of back to the basket going nowhere dribbling 40 feet from the hoop.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

UM is as good as any team in the country. Right now, the Zags and BU are the only other teams in the conversation. That said, the Hawks have the fire power to beat them, but will definitely need to play very well on both ends. The center position is a huge match up, but both teams have scorers and passers all over the floor. I loved watching the OSU-UM game, which was incredible college basketball. I'm really looking forward to seeing what the Hawks can do. Hawks can win this game!

 

[DodgerHawki]

UM is as good as any team in the country. Right now, the Zags and BU are the only other teams in the conversation. That said, the Hawks have the fire power to beat them, but will definitely need to play very well on both ends. The center position is a huge match up, but both teams have scorers and passers all over the floor. I loved watching the OSU-UM game, which was incredible college basketball. I'm really looking forward to seeing what the Hawks can do. Hawks can win this game!

Michigan is playing at a high level. They have grown men playing the perimeter positions, and the freshman center is very good. His mobility is not fantastic, Garza may get opportunities to shoot some 3's. They have 5 guys who have made over 20 3's this year, and all of them shooting at least 37%. They have very nice size on the perimeter with Wagner, Livers and Brown. The best route to a win for Iowa is Dickinson sitting with fouls. Austin Davis is no matchup for Garza.

 

[Eternal Return]

My guess is you've seen one Gonzaga game this year & it was vs the Hawks.

Nobody would go undefeated in the B1G this season, including the '76 Hoosiers. I bring up the '76 Hoosiers because I've seen fans make the dumb point about how Gonzaga wouldn't go undefeated this season in the B1G...well no shit.

Yup. The "they won't go undefeated" argument doesn't mean they still wouldn't end up the best team in the league. My God, you add the Zags to a conference with UM, OSU, Iowa, and ALL and you've essentially got all the best teams in college basketball except Baylor. No one, absolutely no one, would go undefeated if each if those teams played each other twice in the regular season. The B10 is already more loaded at the top than any conference I can recall; adding the Zags would be ridiculous. At that point, just add Baylor and shut down all the other conferences and the NCAAs to see who the best team is.

 

[Eternal Return]

Just a reminder that acronyms are racist. Be careful when and how you use them.

Uh ... what??? "FWIW" is racist? lol, I love it!

Let me see ... FWIW =

--Fight Win Iowa White
--Fred Walton Is White
--Fos'sho, Wisconsin Is White
--**** Illinois Iowa White
--Full Wop Isnt White
--Fearsome Whites Intimidate Women

I have no idea, lol

 

[JerseyCityHawki]

MEATCHICKEN

 

[Hawkeye_311]

Probably more value to bet them to win it all. To make the final 4 is -140. To win it all is around +450

I think 2 weeks ago they were +1150

 

[Rifler]

If we can keep it within 10 points, moral victory.

OK,.. I guess I'd be satisfied with a 10 point win.

 

[KcTo]

Michigan is the new Duke...

 

[HawkLogic]

Because Michigan is better at every position other than center. Mich also has a above average center so Garza will get his points but probably not dominate. Mich is the best team in the country with few weaknesses. Iowa has weakness of guard play and will find it very hard to get a clean look at the basket. now you know

I wouldn't say Michigan is better at every position. JoeW is better than Livers and as u mention Garza being better than Dickinson.

When Dickinson is at center, they have an inside scorer at high efficiency and then 4 other guys that can dribble drive or shoot at decent level + they all can defend. You can't double Dickinson without paying price--if Michigan is hitting the 3ball.

Fran on other hand plays lineups where anywhere from 1 to 3 guys can't score/or have major holes in their games either 3 point shooting, lack of dribble drive, or defense.

Michigan has two smallish guards. JBO should be able to get his shot off...if JBO is making 3's and Fredrick and JoeW making 3's and Garza at high efficiency...Iowa actually matches up well with Michigan. The game is at Crisler though, and Michigan shoots well at home...so probably a loss.

 

[Jizzer]

Michigan is the new Duke...

Don't say Duke, it's the last name of that white power guy.

 

[24 so far]

Don't say Duke, it's the last name of that white power guy.

It's also the last name of Daisy Duke.......now we're talking!

 

[sbhawk64]

They lost to Minnesota. Now you know. Did I do that right?

And we lost to many more. are you caught up yet? Including Minnesota. I appreciate the effort though

 

[joelbc1]

Michigan is the best team in the country. Do we really think Gonzaga and/or baylor would have a better record if they went thru Michigan's schedule? Gonzage isnt going thru the Big indefeated

I am not from Mizzery but until someone beats Gonzaga....I don’t care. The Zags are really good. Not unbeatable but very good.

 

[24 so far]

And we lost to many more. are you caught up yet? Including Minnesota. I appreciate the effort though

I think somebody said Michigan was the best team in the country, oh, that was you.

I think you must have meant Minnesota was the best team in the country, because they beat Michigan.

 

[sbhawk64]

I think somebody said Michigan was the best team in the country, oh, that was you.

I think you must have meant Minnesota was the best team in the country, because they beat Michigan.

Do you think Gonzaga and Baylor would have a record as good as Michigan's if they played Michigan's record????

 

[hexumhawk]

I dont think there is any team that is unbeatable this year. Zags played great against us and it was still a game that was within reach. Michigan plays a lot like them and relies on the 3 as do we so any night can be an off night. I can see Iowa winning this game.

 

[sbhawk64]

I dont think there is any team that is unbeatable this year. Zags played great against us and it was still a game that was within reach. Michigan plays a lot like them and relies on the 3 as do we so any night can be an off night. I can see Iowa winning this game.

I hope youre correct. I dont see our guards getting very many good looks at the basket. Their guards are quicker and play good defense. it would be a huge win if we can get out of there with the W

 

[blockm2]

I dont think there is any team that is unbeatable this year. Zags played great against us and it was still a game that was within reach. Michigan plays a lot like them and relies on the 3 as do we so any night can be an off night. I can see Iowa winning this game.

Iowa ranks 66th nationally in highest percentage of points via 3s at 35.3%. Michigan ranks 204th at 29.6%. So Iowa definitely a bit more reliant on 3s than Michigan so far this year.

 

[hexumhawk]

I hope youre correct. I dont see our guards getting very many good looks at the basket. Their guards are quicker and play good defense. it would be a huge win if we can get out of there with the W

Yes, that is the problem Iowa will have with most really good teams. They are going to have to get creative with their sets and Joe T is going to eventually have to play some meaningful minutes.

 

[24 so far]

Do you think Gonzaga and Baylor would have a record as good as Michigan's if they played Michigan's record????

About the same I would say, but Michigan has played fewer games at this point too, so maybe they get more losses, but their Home schedule is favorable to them with the teams they only play once.

Gonzaga played some good teams early and waxed them all IIRC. They aren't taking many losses no matter where they play.

 

[Rifler]

Ann Arbor was a whore

Still is...

 

[NoSwampDonkeys]

He good. Doesn't look like a kid just out of hs. He looks about 30 also

According to an article I read, he is 20. So it sounds like his parents held him back in school "for an advantage".

 

[Ronman]

Something that hasn't been discussed much is that Dickinson is from Alexandria, VA and he and Luka have worked out and played against each other quite a few times. This won't be the first time they've faced each other. Hopefully the master still has a lot left to teach the pupil.

 

[sbhawk64]

About the same I would say, but Michigan has played fewer games at this point too, so maybe they get more losses, but their Home schedule is favorable to them with the teams they only play once.

Gonzaga played some good teams early and waxed them all IIRC. They aren't taking many losses no matter where they play.

Gonzaga was sceduled to play Baylor. One of those teams would have a loss. Gonzaga did play afew really good teams early but nothing compared to a Bigten scedule and its been cupcake teams for 80% of their conference schedule.

 

[RocknRollface]

I wouldn't say Michigan is better at every position. JoeW is better than Livers and as u mention Garza being better than Dickinson.

When Dickinson is at center, they have an inside scorer at high efficiency and then 4 other guys that can dribble drive or shoot at decent level + they all can defend. You can't double Dickinson without paying price--if Michigan is hitting the 3ball.

Fran on other hand plays lineups where anywhere from 1 to 3 guys can't score/or have major holes in their games either 3 point shooting, lack of dribble drive, or defense.

Michigan has two smallish guards. JBO should be able to get his shot off...if JBO is making 3's and Fredrick and JoeW making 3's and Garza at high efficiency...Iowa actually matches up well with Michigan. The game is at Crisler though, and Michigan shoots well at home...so probably a loss.

Joe is not better than Livers.

Livers might be the best all around player in the league.

Joe is a better shooter but he will have a hard time getting clean looks against Livers or Wagner. Probably his toughest matchup of the season.

JBO won't be able to do much of anything against Smith, who is a really good defender, besides dribble with his back to the basket and if he does manage to get a couple shots off they'll bring Brown off the bench to put on him and that dude is scary on pgs who aren't slow, let alone JBO.

Iowa only has one advantage in this game, Luka.

Luka may have to bring the ball up, or Fran will have to give in and play Toussaint.

I think this is Iowas worst matchup of the season.

 

[Jizzer]

Joe is not better than Livers.

Livers might be the best all around player in the league.

Joe is a better shooter but he will have a hard time getting clean looks against Livers or Wagner. Probably his toughest matchup of the season.

JBO won't be able to do much of anything against Smith, who is a really good defender, besides dribble with his back to the basket and if he does manage to get a couple shots off they'll bring Brown off the bench to put on him and that dude is scary on pgs who aren't slow, let alone JBO.

Iowa only has one advantage in this game, Luka.

Luka may have to bring the ball up, or Fran will have to give in and play Toussaint.

I think this is Iowas worst matchup of the season.

Outside of Wagner over Connor, every other position player for Iowa has a higher efficiency rating their Michigan opponent.
Luka > Dickinson


Wagner > Connor. This is the biggest difference between the teams.


For conference play:
Smith vs. Jbo - They play the same amount of minutes. Jbo averages more points, better A/TO, more rebounds, better 2 pt FG%, and better FT%. The only thing Smith currently has better is 3 pt FG%. I know you hate Jbo, so I'm sure I know who you prefer.

Joe vs Livers - Livers plays 2 more MPG, and taking the same amount of shots. Joe averages more point and rebounds, better FG% and 3 point FG%, while worse 2 pt FG% and worse A/TO. These guys are a wash.

Brooks vs CJ = Brooks plays more, and therefore barely average more points. Same A/TO, CJ shoots better from the floor everywhere. Again wash IMO.

 

[silasstarr]

Because Michigan will make life hell on Iowas guards.

They're the best on ball defensive team I've seen this year.

Be prepared for a ton of back to the basket going nowhere dribbling 40 feet from the hoop.

They have to make them pay. Glad CJ is back as he’s good about going around defenders who guard close.

 

[DewHawk]

I have to agree really do not like how the players match up in this contest and at Michigan. Ugh!

 

[blockm2]

Outside of Wagner over Connor, every other position player for Iowa has a higher efficiency rating their Michigan opponent.
Luka > Dickinson


Wagner > Connor. This is the biggest difference between the teams.


For conference play:
Smith vs. Jbo - They play the same amount of minutes. Jbo averages more points, better A/TO, more rebounds, better 2 pt FG%, and better FT%. The only thing Smith currently has better is 3 pt FG%. I know you hate Jbo, so I'm sure I know who you prefer.

Joe vs Livers - Livers plays 2 more MPG, and taking the same amount of shots. Joe averages more point and rebounds, better FG% and 3 point FG%, while worse 2 pt FG% and worse A/TO. These guys are a wash.

Brooks vs CJ = Brooks plays more, and therefore barely average more points. Same A/TO, CJ shoots better from the floor everywhere. Again wash IMO.

Since Iowa has a better offensive efficiency at the team level, stands to reason most of their players have a higher O-rating (though Livers is > Weiskamp by O-rating). Also since Michigan is a lot better than Iowa defensively, stands to reason most of Michigan's players are better individual defenders than Iowa. I mean I'm pretty sure if you had to pick 5 players off each starting lineup to play defense you would pick all 5 from Michigan.

 

[RocknRollface]

Outside of Wagner over Connor, every other position player for Iowa has a higher efficiency rating their Michigan opponent.
Luka > Dickinson


Wagner > Connor. This is the biggest difference between the teams.


For conference play:
Smith vs. Jbo - They play the same amount of minutes. Jbo averages more points, better A/TO, more rebounds, better 2 pt FG%, and better FT%. The only thing Smith currently has better is 3 pt FG%. I know you hate Jbo, so I'm sure I know who you prefer.

Joe vs Livers - Livers plays 2 more MPG, and taking the same amount of shots. Joe averages more point and rebounds, better FG% and 3 point FG%, while worse 2 pt FG% and worse A/TO. These guys are a wash.

Brooks vs CJ = Brooks plays more, and therefore barely average more points. Same A/TO, CJ shoots better from the floor everywhere. Again wash IMO.

We'll see how it plays out at the 1. Like I said, I don't see many clean looks for JBO, he never gets clean looks and this will be the best on ball defense he's faced. If Howard puts Brown on JBO it will be cruel.

If you want to call Livers Vs Weiskamp a push im ok with that. Joe's a better shooter but Livers is a better defender and ballhandler and still a good shooter.

I think Livers is the best wing in the conference, Joe is probably second best.

CJ is the best shooter in the conference but isn't anywhere near as good off the bounce or in transition as Brooks.

Both CJ and Joe are hampered by lack of pg on the floor who can shift the defense and create open looks for them. If they had that they would both be more valuable.

 

[Jizzer]

Since Iowa has a better offensive efficiency at the team level, stands to reason most of their players have a higher O-rating (though Livers is > Weiskamp by O-rating). Also since Michigan is a lot better than Iowa defensively, stands to reason most of Michigan's players are better individual defenders than Iowa. I mean I'm pretty sure if you had to pick 5 players off each starting lineup to play defense you would pick all 5 from Michigan.

Yeah, Michigan is better on defense for sure. I was more surprised how well we matched up outside of Franz from an overall standpoint. Livers has a 97.5 Drtg to Joe 99.5. Closer than I would have thought. Should be a fun game.

 

[blockm2]

Yeah, Michigan is better on defense for sure. I was more surprised how well we matched up outside of Franz from an overall standpoint. Livers has a 97.5 Drtg to Joe 99.5. Closer than I would have thought. Should be a fun game.

individual D ratings in NCAA probably close to meaningless between teams IMHO. Maybe a little useful within a team.

 

[24 so far]

Gonzaga was sceduled to play Baylor. One of those teams would have a loss. Gonzaga did play afew really good teams early but nothing compared to a Bigten scedule and its been cupcake teams for 80% of their conference schedule.

Yes, they were scheduled to play, Out of Their Conference, and since they didn't they both managed to beat everybody else they have played in and out of their Conference. That's pretty good.

Everybody knows Gonzaga plays in a weak Conference, including their Coach, which is why he schedules Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC teams in the non-conference portion of their season, and beats them a good share of the time.

The Big 12 has a number of ranked teams and I assume Baylor has played and beaten all or most of them to this point.

So yeah, they could both lose playing in the Big Ten. That doesn't mean they would.

I know for damn sure I don't want to see either one of them until the latest possible time we can. The last time we played either it didn't go well for the Hawks.

 

[24 so far]

We'll see how it plays out at the 1. Like I said, I don't see many clean looks for JBO, he never gets clean looks and this will be the best on ball defense he's faced. If Howard puts Brown on JBO it will be cruel.

If you want to call Livers Vs Weiskamp a push im ok with that. Joe's a better shooter but Livers is a better defender and ballhandler and still a good shooter.

I think Livers is the best wing in the conference, Joe is probably second best.

CJ is the best shooter in the conference but isn't anywhere near as good off the bounce or in transition as Brooks.

Both CJ and Joe are hampered by lack of pg on the floor who can shift the defense and create open looks for them. If they had that they would both be more valuable.

So we got no shot is what you're saying. I don't think we'll win either, but far stranger things have happened.