Mid Level recruits who have gone on to stardom for the hawks?

[LaxHawk174]

Serious question about nature vs. nurture…

What % of Top 10 P4P recruits win an individual championship? Vs. What % of PSU’s Top 10 P4P recruits win an individual championship?

If anyone’s done the analysis, I can‘t find it.

2009 - 5 of 10 (Dake/Taylor/Ruth/Perry/Ramos) - 12 total titles
2010 - 1 of 10 (Stieber) - 4 total titles
2011 - 1 of 10 (Megaludis) - 1 total title
2012 - 1 of 10 (Tsirtsis) - 1 total title
2013 - 4 of 10 (IMar/Cox/Retherford/Ashnault) - 9 total titles
2014 - 3 of 10 (Nolf/Nickal/Snyder) - 9 total titles
2015 - 3 of 10 (Joseph/Valencia/Martin) - 6 total titles
2016 - 2 of 10 (Hall/Suriano) - 3 total titles
2017 - 3 of 10 (Lee/Lee/Yianni) - 8 total titles so far
2018 - 3 of 10 (Steveson/Brooks/Carr) - 5 total titles so far
2019 - 1 of 10 (Starrocci) - 2 total titles so far
2020 - 2 of 10 (O'Toole/Ferrari) - 2 total titles so far
2021/2022 - 0 of 10 so far

Going back through 2009, 2-3 seems to be the norm per recruiting class when its all said and done.

 

[TarpHawk]

Whitmer and Weber were the first 2 names I thought of when this topic came up.

For the older than me crowd (dam you guys are old) how highly recruited was Royce? I assume highly but I have no idea.

Royce was a Jr National freestyle champ and 3x state champ, so he was blue-chip.

Ironside was a 2x state champ with a 106-5-1 record in HS, so he was pretty blue-chip too. I don't know about his national experience.

 

[TarpHawk]

2014 - 3 of 10 (Nolf/Nickal/Snyder)
2015 - 3 of 10 (Joseph/Valencia/Martin)
2016 - 2 of 10 (Hall/Suriano)
2017 - 3 of 10 (Lee/Lee/Yianni)
2018 - 3 of 10 (Steveson/Brooks/Carr)
2019 - 1 of 10 (Starrocci)
2020 - 2 of 10 (O'Toole/Ferrari)
2021/2022 - 0 of 10 so far

That's just back through 2014, 2-3 seems to be the norm per recruiting class when its all said and done.

Ooo, thanks...good data. Two thoughts:

25-30% is a high percentage. Top 10 P4Ps are not always at 10 different weights, which lowers the odds for guys at the same weight. Some guys are multi-time champs, which lowers the odds for guys stuck behind super-studs. There are injuries, which lowers the odds for everyone. There's a new crop of top-10s every year, which means it's always a horse race. And guys #11-20 are right behind them knocking at the door....every year.

If you're telling me there's a 25-30% chance that every top-10 P4P I recruit is going to be an NCAA champ...put all my eggs in that basket, please.

Other thought: kudos to Cael. He's got 6 of the 17 champs on the list--7 if you count Suriano. Whew.

 

[TarpHawk]

Sorry to hijack this thread. Only 1 of Iowa's 7 top-10 P4Ps has won a title so far (Lee), but 5 have been AAs, and Kennedy and Ayala seem likely to AA as well. 100% AA rate is good

#10 Stoll
#9 Kem
#3 Marinelli
#2 Lee
#7 Warner
#3 Kennedy
#5 Ayala

 

[IRONBIRD]

In recent years, there's been improvement without a doubt, but for many years it was pretty bad. Zero top 10 recruits over a 5 year span from 2010-14. Then came our first - Kemerer, #8 p4p, who ends up being a 4x AA (3,4,2,4). He was actually a 5x AA with the covid year, when ncaa was cancelled.

Top 10 p4p recruits, through 2018

Iowa:
2010 - 0
2011 - 0
2012 - 0
2013 - 0
2014 - 0
2015 - 1
2016 - 1
2017 - 2
2018 - 0

PSU:
2010 - 2
2011 - 2
2012 -1
2013 - 1
2014 - 3
2015 - 1
2016 - 3
2017 - 2
2018 - 2

17-4!!! And we still beat them 2 year( a little past these years but that is still remarkable!)

Serious question about nature vs. nurture…

What % of Top 10 P4P recruits win an individual championship? Vs. What % of PSU’s Top 10 P4P recruits win an individual championship?

If anyone’s done the analysis, I can‘t find it.

This would be a pretty good thing to look at. What the F*** st bandwagon clowns do, is use the multiple studs they have for statistics. To break it down this way, would give a much better insight to, "are they coaching them up" claim?

So over these 9 years above, They had 17 top 10 P4P recruits. How many were NC?

Then you look at our 1st P4P guy in those years as pointed out by rossel 33. and if we had 17 KemDawgs, even without winning an individual championship. Imagine the teams we would have had!!!

Also as pointed out by other, our recruiting has changed and picked up. The thing is, it has to remain at a very high level every year. That could mean just bringing in 1 or 2 TOP guys in some years, but there has to be a constant flow of hammers!

 

[LaxHawk174]

2009 - 5 of 10 (Dake/Taylor/Ruth/Perry/Ramos)
2010 - 1 of 10 (Stieber)
2011 - 1 of 10 (Megaludis)
2012 - 1 of 10 (Tsirtsis)
2013 - 3 of 10 (IMar/Cox/Retherford)
2014 - 3 of 10 (Nolf/Nickal/Snyder)
2015 - 3 of 10 (Joseph/Valencia/Martin)
2016 - 2 of 10 (Hall/Suriano)
2017 - 3 of 10 (Lee/Lee/Yianni)
2018 - 3 of 10 (Steveson/Brooks/Carr)
2019 - 1 of 10 (Starrocci)
2020 - 2 of 10 (O'Toole/Ferrari)
2021/2022 - 0 of 10 so far

Going back through 2009, 2-3 seems to be the norm per recruiting class when its all said and done.

Penn States % of NCAA Champs from Top 10 P4P Recruits

2009 - #1 Taylor, #5 Ruth, #7 Kemerer
2010 - #2 Alton, #8 Alton
2011 - #1 McIntosh, #5 Megaludis
2012 - #3 Gulibon
2013 - #3 Retherford
2014 - #4 Nevills, #5 Nickal, #7 Nolf
2015 - #7 Joseph
2016 - #1 Hall, #2 Suriano, #5 Manville
2017 - #6 Berge, #9 Lee
2018 - #2 Brooks
2019- #9 Starrocci, #1 Kerkvliet (transfer)
2020 - #4 Bartlett, #7 Howard
2021 - #2 Facundo, #4 Van Ness

Based on that set of data, Penn St. has converted 10 out of 25 top 10 p4p into NCAA Champs.

Penn St. is hitting at about a 40% Champ rate on their top 10 p4ps, compared to a 25-30ish % from the field.

It's been repeated ad nauseum, but the proof is in the pudding. I'd take one #3 Retherford type over 5 #11-50 guys any day.

 

[dtripp26]

Almost destroys the narrative that Cael and company are so much better than everyone else at development?

Make no mistake, Carl does a tremendous job managing all of that talent and having them ready to go in March.

It's not always easy to manage multiple egos. And as much as we harp on top 10 P4P getting them is only part of the battle. Aside from Lee how many championships have we gotten from the top20 P4P guys we have landed?

 

[SPOONER]

All these posts and not a single mention of Pat Lugo.

 

[dtripp26]

All these posts and not a single mention of Pat Lugo.

He'll always be a somewhat forgotten guy because he didn't get to earn his championship.

 

[KidDagger]

2009 - 5 of 10 (Dake/Taylor/Ruth/Perry/Ramos)
2010 - 1 of 10 (Stieber)
2011 - 1 of 10 (Megaludis)
2012 - 1 of 10 (Tsirtsis)
2013 - 3 of 10 (IMar/Cox/Retherford)
2014 - 3 of 10 (Nolf/Nickal/Snyder)
2015 - 3 of 10 (Joseph/Valencia/Martin)
2016 - 2 of 10 (Hall/Suriano)
2017 - 3 of 10 (Lee/Lee/Yianni)
2018 - 3 of 10 (Steveson/Brooks/Carr)
2019 - 1 of 10 (Starrocci)
2020 - 2 of 10 (O'Toole/Ferrari)
2021/2022 - 0 of 10 so far

Going back through 2009, 2-3 seems to be the norm per recruiting class when its all said and done.

Is this list accurate?? Wasn’t Ashnault top 10p4p recruit?

 

[LaxHawk174]

Is this list accurate?? Wasn’t Ashnault top 10p4p recruit?

Totally spaced on him, thank you. The rankings I referenced were a combination of FLO big boards/Recruiting class rankings and Intermat's Re-Ranking class of 2009/2010/2011/2012/2013 articles which used intermats big board rankings. I also used to reference the website D1collegewrestling that had the 'older' recruiting classes - they went up to about 2015 or 2016 before they stopped, and eventually the website went away altogether unfortunately it seems.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Make no mistake, Carl does a tremendous job managing all of that talent and having them ready to go in March.

It's not always easy to manage multiple egos. And as much as we harp on top 10 P4P getting them is only part of the battle. Aside from Lee how many championships have we gotten from the top20 P4P guys we have landed?

Managing and having them ready is not what I meant by development. That is more maintenance. Phil Jackson was a great manager of egos and talent (ie. Jordan, Kobe, Shaq), but then we saw he was a very average coach when he had average talent. I'm not disputing one bit that being able to manage egos is a tremendous skill and maybe the most important aspect of being an administrator. That is not what I was referring to.

 

[natchrlman]

Mark Ironside?

Ironside wasn’t near as highly ranked a recruit as Mcguiness but was the better college wrestler……. I don’t remember recruiting being as closely followed back then though either

 

[WIP2001]

Penn States % of NCAA Champs from Top 10 P4P Recruits

2009 - #1 Taylor, #5 Ruth, #7 Kemerer
2010 - #2 Alton, #8 Alton
2011 - #1 McIntosh, #5 Megaludis
2012 - #3 Gulibon
2013 - #3 Retherford
2014 - #4 Nevills, #5 Nickal, #7 Nolf
2015 - #7 Joseph
2016 - #1 Hall, #2 Suriano, #5 Manville
2017 - #6 Berge, #9 Lee
2018 - #2 Brooks
2019- #9 Starrocci, #1 Kerkvliet (transfer)
2020 - #4 Bartlett, #7 Howard
2021 - #2 Facundo, #4 Van Ness

Based on that set of data, Penn St. has converted 10 out of 25 top 10 p4p into NCAA Champs.

Penn St. is hitting at about a 40% Champ rate on their top 10 p4ps, compared to a 25-30ish % from the field.

It's been repeated ad nauseum, but the proof is in the pudding. I'd take one #3 Retherford type over 5 #11-50 guys any day.

Thanks. It’s probably around 50% when you consider Kerkvliet, Bartlett, Howard, Facundo, Van Ness can still win a title in their careers and Suriano won but for another school

Based on these posts, PSU top 10 p4p are 2x as likely to win a title than a non-PSU top 10 p4p recruit.

I’m sure it’s many things. Talent identification, coaching, training partners, etc.

 

[Fan In Black]

anybody that wrestled or followed wrestling in the late 80s early 90s knew the Ironside name. Mark was famous in the state before he went to Iowa.

 

[burk11]

T.J. Sebolt/Mark Ironside.
Some things that are counted (records) do not necessarily count. Some things that count (motivation) are not necessarily counted.

 

[1stplacehawk]

Thanks. It’s probably around 50% when you consider Kerkvliet, Bartlett, Howard, Facundo, Van Ness can still win a title in their careers and Suriano won but for another school

Based on these posts, PSU top 10 p4p are 2x as likely to win a title than a non-PSU top 10 p4p recruit.

I’m sure it’s many things. Talent identification, coaching, training partners, etc.

The same would be true for other top 10s still having time to win titles in those classes, so PSU is not twice as likely to turn you into a champ. However, they are obviously very good at what they do.

 

[LaxHawk174]

The same would be true for other top 10s still having time to win titles in those classes, so PSU is not twice as likely to turn you into a champ. However, they are obviously very good at what they do.

Agree it is not twice as likely to turn you into a champ. The 10-15% bump could very well be attributed to simply being the more dominant team for a decade, so more of the true blue blood top 10's (vs 'standard' top 10's) wanted to go there for the higher chance of winning a team title.

 

[Fan In Black]

whatever the equation is Iowa needs more of the elite recruits in every class. It would really help if the state produced more of them.

 

[Jackhawk87]

Thanks. It’s probably around 50% when you consider Kerkvliet, Bartlett, Howard, Facundo, Van Ness can still win a title in their careers and Suriano won but for another school

Based on these posts, PSU top 10 p4p are 2x as likely to win a title than a non-PSU top 10 p4p recruit.

I’m sure it’s many things. Talent identification, coaching, training partners, etc.

Also like to add that not all top 10 PFPs are all the same. I would guess that the top 5 PFPs have about 2x the likelihood of winning a title than the 6-10 PFPers, and the 1&2 PFP similarly much higher chance than the 4&5.

And when you count the total # of championships from the 1 - 5s vs the 6 - 10s (or 1-2 vs 4-5), I would guess that gets even higher.

 

[TNTwrestle]

Ironside wasn’t near as highly ranked a recruit as Mcguiness but was the better college wrestler……. I don’t remember recruiting being as closely followed back then though either

That's all pretty subjective. Sure, Ironside wasn't a 4-time undefeated State Champ, but he was pretty sought-after. Yes, 4-time AA, 2-time Champ (6, 3, 1, 1) trumps 3-time AA, 2-time Champ (5, 1, DNP, 1) but that DNP year wasn't a total waste. McGinnis won a lot of matches and was ranked very high, just struggled with an injury or something between the ears, or weight problems or two or three of those during that season. He took a Redshirt and regrouped and got healthy and came back and won a title two weight classes up as a senior. You can say Ironside had a better career, but not really by a lot.

 

[natchrlman]

That's all pretty subjective. Sure, Ironside wasn't a 4-time undefeated State Champ, but he was pretty sought-after. Yes, 4-time AA, 2-time Champ (6, 3, 1, 1) trumps 3-time AA, 2-time Champ (5, 1, DNP, 1) but that DNP year wasn't a total waste. McGinnis won a lot of matches and was ranked very high, just struggled with an injury or something between the ears, or weight problems or two or three of those during that season. He took a Redshirt and regrouped and got healthy and came back and won a title two weight classes up as a senior. You can say Ironside had a better career, but not really by a lot.

Marks a good friend’s nephew and I watched him grow up…… I might be a little subjective 😎

 

[Inthecircle]

Cliff Moore (6,6,1) not sure how highly he was ranked. Cast Fargo Champ. Fargo runner up. One a national title as the 5 seed

 

[WrestlerHawk]

Penn States % of NCAA Champs from Top 10 P4P Recruits

2009 - #1 Taylor, #5 Ruth, #7 Kemerer
2010 - #2 Alton, #8 Alton
2011 - #1 McIntosh, #5 Megaludis
2012 - #3 Gulibon
2013 - #3 Retherford
2014 - #4 Nevills, #5 Nickal, #7 Nolf
2015 - #7 Joseph
2016 - #1 Hall, #2 Suriano, #5 Manville
2017 - #6 Berge, #9 Lee
2018 - #2 Brooks
2019- #9 Starrocci, #1 Kerkvliet (transfer)
2020 - #4 Bartlett, #7 Howard
2021 - #2 Facundo, #4 Van Ness

Based on that set of data, Penn St. has converted 10 out of 25 top 10 p4p into NCAA Champs.

Penn St. is hitting at about a 40% Champ rate on their top 10 p4ps, compared to a 25-30ish % from the field.

It's been repeated ad nauseum, but the proof is in the pudding. I'd take one #3 Retherford type over 5 #11-50 guys any day.

Aren't there 11 bolded names in that list? 11/25 = 44%.

And, we haven't even considered total individual championships won by that group. In the nine years of wrestlers in that list who have graduated, the F*n state guys have won 20 of 90 championships. Plus, their guys are winning championships earlier than most. Haven't 7 of those 11 won in either their freshman or sophomore years? How many of the others have done that?

Not to mention what their guys do on Friday nights at nationals. Not only are they practically doubling up on championships, I've got to believe they're crushing the field even worse in semis.

 

[WrestlerHawk]

Almost destroys the narrative that Cael and company are so much better than everyone else at development?

Will destroying that narrative change the narrative that PSU has won 9 of the last 11 national championships? Saturday night at Nationals, after watching them win 10 of the last 12, are you going to sit back with a smug look on your face and say, "Well, they might have won ten of the last 12 NCAAs, but by God, they can't develop their wrestlers?" Does that help you sleep at night? Not me.

 

[SPOONER]

That's all pretty subjective. Sure, Ironside wasn't a 4-time undefeated State Champ, but he was pretty sought-after. Yes, 4-time AA, 2-time Champ (6, 3, 1, 1) trumps 3-time AA, 2-time Champ (5, 1, DNP, 1) but that DNP year wasn't a total waste. McGinnis won a lot of matches and was ranked very high, just struggled with an injury or something between the ears, or weight problems or two or three of those during that season. He took a Redshirt and regrouped and got healthy and came back and won a title two weight classes up as a senior. You can say Ironside had a better career, but not really by a lot.

I also did some research after his post because I wasn’t sure. Both were fantastic but he was 100% correct. Ironside also won 4 Big 10s to McGuinness’ 2. You also can’t gloss over the DNP like it didn’t happen, no matter the reason.

Will destroying that narrative change the narrative that PSU has won 9 of the last 11 national championships? Saturday night at Nationals, after watching them win 10 of the last 12, are you going to sit back with a smug look on your face and say, "Well, they might have won ten of the last 12 NCAAs, but by God, they can't develop their wrestlers?" Does that help you sleep at night? Not me.

Anyone who says PSU can’t develop wrestlers is an absolute imbecile.

 

[TarpHawk]

That's all pretty subjective. Sure, Ironside wasn't a 4-time undefeated State Champ, but he was pretty sought-after. Yes, 4-time AA, 2-time Champ (6, 3, 1, 1) trumps 3-time AA, 2-time Champ (5, 1, DNP, 1) but that DNP year wasn't a total waste. McGinnis won a lot of matches and was ranked very high, just struggled with an injury or something between the ears, or weight problems or two or three of those during that season. He took a Redshirt and regrouped and got healthy and came back and won a title two weight classes up as a senior. You can say Ironside had a better career, but not really by a lot.

DNP year was a weight issue. Can't gloss over it, but like Randy Lewis, Royce Alger, and Terry Brands (all 2x champs), McG was one of the best Hawks ever.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Will destroying that narrative change the narrative that PSU has won 9 of the last 11 national championships? Saturday night at Nationals, after watching them win 10 of the last 12, are you going to sit back with a smug look on your face and say, "Well, they might have won ten of the last 12 NCAAs, but by God, they can't develop their wrestlers?" Does that help you sleep at night? Not me.

Nice try but my point, and only one I was trying to make, still stands. We will know how great of a developer of talent he is when he doesn’t have the far and away best talent. But congratulations on well written douche baggery. .

 

[WrestlerHawk]

2009 - 5 of 10 (Dake/Taylor/Ruth/Perry/Ramos) - 12 total titles
2010 - 1 of 10 (Stieber) - 4 total titles
2011 - 1 of 10 (Megaludis) - 1 total title
2012 - 1 of 10 (Tsirtsis) - 1 total title
2013 - 4 of 10 (IMar/Cox/Retherford/Ashnault) - 9 total titles
2014 - 3 of 10 (Nolf/Nickal/Snyder) - 9 total titles
2015 - 3 of 10 (Joseph/Valencia/Martin) - 6 total titles
2016 - 2 of 10 (Hall/Suriano) - 3 total titles
2017 - 3 of 10 (Lee/Lee/Yianni) - 8 total titles so far
2018 - 3 of 10 (Steveson/Brooks/Carr) - 5 total titles so far
2019 - 1 of 10 (Starrocci) - 2 total titles so far
2020 - 2 of 10 (O'Toole/Ferrari) - 2 total titles so far
2021/2022 - 0 of 10 so far

Going back through 2009, 2-3 seems to be the norm per recruiting class when its all said and done.

Man, this data shows me two things...
1. Coaches can't just plop a top ten kid on the mat, and the kid automatically wins a championship. In just the years where the wrestlers are all graduated, 20 top ten kids won championships, 60 did not. Lots of coaches have some 'splainin' to do.
2. For just years where all the wrestlers have graduated:
PSU: 8 (Taylor, Ruth, Megaludis, Retherford, Nickal, Nolf, Joseph, Hall)
tOSU: 3 (Stieber, Snyder, Martin)
Rutgers: 2 (Suriano?, Ashnault)
Cornell: 1 (Dake)
Iowa: 1 (Ramos)
Illinois: 1 (Imar)
Northwestern: 1 (Tsirtsis)
MIssouri: 1 (Cox)
ASU: 1 (Valencia)
OkieState: 1 (Perry)

 

[WrestlerHawk]

Almost destroys the narrative that Cael and company are so much better than everyone else at development?

Anyone who says PSU can’t develop wrestlers is an absolute imbecile.

 

[manatree]

Phil Jackson was a great manager of egos and talent (ie. Jordan, Kobe, Shaq), but then we saw he was a very average coach when he had average talent.

And just how many championships did those players win without that very average coach? One. When Shaq took another very average coach named Pat Riley to the top in Miami. It’s a two way street. Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that coaches like Gallagher and Gable coached up kids from scratch. Just because there wasn’t a dozen different recruiting services releasing P4P lists back in the day, they weren’t picking from the bottom of the barrel.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Where did I ever say they can’t? Show me. I simply said having nearly a top pfp recruit at every weight class is not an indicator or proof that development is their forte. Try reading before reacting. I also said being a manager of talent and egos is a great skill. Did that get your panties in a bunch too?

 

[Valholl]

I went to find McDonough's ranking and this article popped up. https://iowa.rivals.com/news/a-look-back-at-a-championship-team

Then I went to find Micheal Beard's recruitment (I thought he was originally slated for NW?). Found this article. Seems like it can keep you fine folks entertained for a day or so.

Oh Hello: 2018 Wrestling #5 P4P Recruit Michael Beard Commits to Penn State

Cael Sanderson gets a commitment from stud in-state upperweight Michael Beard

www.blackshoediaries.com

Cael Sanderson added what might be the final huge piece to his outstanding 2018 recruiting class Wednesday evening when he secured a verbal commitment from Malvern Prep’s Michael Beard, as first reported by Flo Wrestling. Beard, who projects to be a 197 lber in college, is the number five wrestler in his graduating class, per Flo Wrestling.

Beard joins a recruiting class that already features #2 Gavin Teasdale, #3 Roman Bravo-Young, #4 Travis Wittlake, #10 Seth Nevills and #37 Joe Lee.

 

[Hawks...#1]

Jeff McGinnis to me was one of the best high school wrestlers iowa has ever had, pretty sure he had world winning experience on his side too....strictly my opinion of course