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My prediction for tonight

B

bonefish1

Scout Team
Oct 4, 2004
75
49
18
Full disclosure: Purdue grad here.
I think it's going to be a tighter game for 30 minutes and then Purdue will maintain a 8-11 point cushion late in the second half.
I doubt PU is on fire from 3 to start but if they get the open looks, they'll shoot. Will be interesting to see if McCaf has the same defensive philosophy as the first game: Pack the paint and make PU shoot 3s. The problem is, if Iowa starts guarding the 3 pt line, you open up the paint for Biggie and Haas to do damage and get your young bigs in foul trouble early.
I expect Iowa to make a lot more shots at home but if PU isn't hitting jumpers early, Painter will just have them feed the post until Iowa shows they can defend it.
I think Iowa is a similar matchup for Purdue as Wisky was and if PU doesn't let Jok go crazy, they can handle the other guys.
Boilers 78
Hawks 67
 
Well Iowa is going to pack inside and make Purdue win over the top. But even very good shooting teams like Purdue have off nights, particularly on the road. Simply put, Swanigan and Haas would certainly eat us for lunch all night if we did anything else. We have nobody to defend these guys straight up with our current personnel. A lot of teams have that problem, but us especially so. We're just going to have to let Mathias and the Edwards beat us. If they do, they do. But really it's our only option.
 
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We have a lot of fouls to give with our bigs. Unfortunately, both Biggie and Haas are pretty good FT shooters. Still, I wouldn't give them any easy baskets. Maybe we'll get lucky and the refs will invoke the "IZZO Rule," where they decide they can't call them all.
 
If Moss, Pemsl and Uhl show up, it will be decent game. If it's Jok vs. Purdue, it will be another lopsided loss with long scoring droughts by Iowa.
 
I think it will be a much more competitive game this time around. Purdue will not shoot as well from outside and we will shoot much better. I think Purdue will prevail by 8-10 points.
 
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If Edwards, Cline, and Mathias don't shoot a combined 90% from the field to start, it will help. Mathias was something like 1 for 15 from 3 until the Iowa game. I hope to see Basil Smotherman because it is one of my favorite B1G names. Like to see Fran give Dailey some minutes. His length and lateral quickness is better suited to dealing with Purdue than others.
 
Ihawkhoops said:
If Edwards, Cline, and Mathias don't shoot a combined 90% from the field to start, it will help. Mathias was something like 1 for 15 from 3 until the Iowa game. I hope to see Basil Smotherman because it is one of my favorite B1G names. Like to see Fran give Dailey some minutes. His length and lateral quickness is better suited to dealing with Purdue than others.
Click to expand...

Yes, having PU start cold from outside would be helpful (duh....) but it PU is settling for jacking up long threes and not hitting, Painter will make sure they get like 4 post touches each time down the floor. He'll probably run some high/low with Haas and Biggie, which can be deadly if those big guys get deep post position and a good pass from the other big around the FT line.
The problem I see with PU tonight is falling in love with the 3 (everyone but Haas will shoot it) and getting away from going inside. If Iowa guards the paint, Painter will go small with only 1 big and either Vince Edwards (6'8 but really a stretch 3) as the 4 or a 3 G lineup in order to unclog the paint so the bigs can do damage.
Unlike Indiana, PU is not a live by/die by 3 pt shooting team. If they're not hitting, need to be smart enough to just pound it inside.
Will Iowa press again? Do they play much zone?
 
Some good thoughts here. We did alright at Mackey Arena after the first 8 1/2 minute initiation into the Big Ten. The rest of the way it was what, a two or four point game as I recall.

It will be interesting to see what our four starting frosh have learned since then.

If I had to make a guess, I'd say this is going to be a battle start to finish and before the usual foul shots in the last minute, it will be a nail biter. I suppose, it's the kind of game that if we pull it out, and by rights we shouldn't, suddenly everything is roses. And if we lose a close one, I probably will avoid this board for a few days again.

Things I'll be looking for:

Chip on the shoulder revenge game. One thing that has impressed me thus far is the fight in the size of the dog. And finally we get to see a return match. I'll be looking to see the energy level which I expect should be off the charts.

Ball denial defense. If Swannigan wants to catch a pass, same with Haas, make 'em work for it.

Close out on the shooters. If Purdue is hot, I get it, but let's get some hands in faces of guys who think a drive to the hole is what you do in golf.

Bench defense, scoring, all around better bench play. Against Purdue, that should be a strength. Look, they've only got by my count nine or ten scholarship guys not counting walkons..not the Baer variety either. Should these guys have a hand in beating us?

Spike Albrecht, Basil Smotherman? Between them about 26 mpg, 6 pts, 4 rebs. Not much to work with there and those are their 8th and 9th guys. Haas only plays about 22 minutes as is. So their top seven have to work pretty hard. If we can get the ball out and move, keep the pace up, if our bench can pressure their guys to defend and work for what they get. That is our best opportunity, from what I see on paper.

And finally. Mistakes. I said it before the Nebraska game that we had to avoid giving them easy transition buckets off turnovers. And someday we'll be better at that. But we weren't that night. We've gotta keep the turnovers low, hit our free throws, and eliminate the worse liability we have, which is our youth. Gotta grow up time, we're five games into the Big Ten, nobody is really a freshman anymore.

Best of luck to Purdue, rooting for you to finish second tonight.
 
Whatever defense they play, Fran better keep the seat next to him open for whoever can't identify a hot shooter. If it turns into a catch and shoot in rhythm at their favorite spot on the floor game, we get run by half again.
 
Yea, I did forget to touch on the mistakes part. Averaging 20 turnovers the last two games against the teams that were projected (FWIW) to finish 13th and 14th. Tonight that number needs to be around 10. If not, game over.
 
I think we'll get our points, but this game is all about defense. Do we stick with what we tried last year and in the first half this year? If so, we'll have to do a better job of finding shooters when they swing the ball. Do we double and force quick decisions?

I'm calling a big night for Isaiah and for Cordell/Tyler to be efficient with the right matchup.

Hawks 79
Boilers 75
 
It will be better than before, but we are still young and purdue is experienced. They have the size inside that will cause us fits.

PU 87
IA 73

I think the hawks play well but foul down the stretch and PU pulls away. Hopefully I am wrong.

This is a game that could off-set one of our "bad losses" in the non-conf
 
BeepBeepInMyJeep said:
Yea, I did forget to touch on the mistakes part. Averaging 20 turnovers the last two games against the teams that were projected (FWIW) to finish 13th and 14th. Tonight that number needs to be around 10. If not, game over.
Click to expand...

Purdue doesn't force a lot of turnovers. They're not real long or overly athletic but close out well and play good perimeter D. (unless you have a good penetrating guard on the perimeter, then we're in trouble). We just played good fundamental D, try to not give too many good looks and rebound like hell.
Last year, Hammons cleaned up a lot of defensive gaffs by blocking/altering shots. We don't have that this year but Haas definitely makes it tough for other bigs to score in the paint.
I'd be surprised if McCaf presses much. It hasn't hurt PU this year and it creates a lot of secondary break opportunities that lead to open 3s.
Keep an eye on Cline. He's a 6'5 soph SG who was runner up for Mr. Bball in IN to Swanigan. He's starting to heat up and can rip off 3-4 3's quickly when he gets it going. He's been playing more the last 3 games and gives P another outside scoring weapon.
 
The only way, IMHO, to neutralize Swanigan and Haas are to turn the game into a running, fast-paced up and down the floor type of game. Haas can't keep up. A slow, half court game will be very difficult for Iowa to match up.
 
Suterman said:
I think it will be a much more competitive game this time around. Purdue will not shoot as well from outside and we will shoot much better. I think Purdue will prevail by 8-10 points.
Click to expand...
Need wagner and dom.to have best game. Play hard!
 
Greetings once again, Hawkeye fans. As most have said here, expecting a much tighter contest tonight and, as always, any B1G road win is a good one. My greatest wish is to stop by after the game tonight and see another epic andoboy rant (or three). That will mean my Boilers had a good night.
 
hawkcub said:
Iowa wins by double digits. I was at the ISU game. Didn't think we had a prayer. I will be their tonight. Same thing happens tonight. :D
Click to expand...
35528938-Portrait-of-young-man-in-shirt-keeping-fingers-crossed-and-eyes-closed-while-standing-against-white--Stock-Photo.jpg
 
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I will eat my crow with a beer. Damn I was way off.

I thought PU would beat us down low. I am impressed by this young squad. Every single player stepped up tonight. Uhl goes out and Kreiner comes in and gets 6 quick points.
 
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ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK said:
Shameless bump!!!
Click to expand...

I think I'll bump as well.

"Some good thoughts here. We did alright at Mackey Arena after the first 8 1/2 minute initiation into the Big Ten. The rest of the way it was what, a two or four point game as I recall.

It will be interesting to see what our four starting frosh have learned since then.

If I had to make a guess, I'd say this is going to be a battle start to finish and before the usual foul shots in the last minute, it will be a nail biter. I suppose, it's the kind of game that if we pull it out, and by rights we shouldn't, suddenly everything is roses. And if we lose a close one, I probably will avoid this board for a few days again.

Things I'll be looking for:

Chip on the shoulder revenge game. One thing that has impressed me thus far is the fight in the size of the dog. And finally we get to see a return match. I'll be looking to see the energy level which I expect should be off the charts.

Ball denial defense. If Swannigan wants to catch a pass, same with Haas, make 'em work for it.

Close out on the shooters. If Purdue is hot, I get it, but let's get some hands in faces of guys who think a drive to the hole is what you do in golf.

Bench defense, scoring, all around better bench play. Against Purdue, that should be a strength. Look, they've only got by my count nine or ten scholarship guys not counting walkons..not the Baer variety either. Should these guys have a hand in beating us?

Spike Albrecht, Basil Smotherman? Between them about 26 mpg, 6 pts, 4 rebs. Not much to work with there and those are their 8th and 9th guys. Haas only plays about 22 minutes as is. So their top seven have to work pretty hard. If we can get the ball out and move, keep the pace up, if our bench can pressure their guys to defend and work for what they get. That is our best opportunity, from what I see on paper.

And finally. Mistakes. I said it before the Nebraska game that we had to avoid giving them easy transition buckets off turnovers. And someday we'll be better at that. But we weren't that night. We've gotta keep the turnovers low, hit our free throws, and eliminate the worse liability we have, which is our youth. Gotta grow up time, we're five games into the Big Ten, nobody is really a freshman anymore.

Best of luck to Purdue, rooting for you to finish second tonight."

We got two out of three. Low Turnovers and we played like an experienced team. Was just enough to win.
 
bonefish, other teams posters are welcome here........we don't mind good banter and fair takes. I do recommend that if you are going to START a thread on our board predicting a double digit win for your squad, that you come back in and tip your cap graciously when you get beat.

I figure within 24 hours should suffice.

Great game, go Hawks!!
 
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jhawkinaz said:
bonefish, other teams posters are welcome here........we don't mind good banter and fair takes. I do recommend that if you are going to START a thread on our board predicting a double digit win for your squad, that you come back in and tip your cap graciously when you get beat.

I figure within 24 hours should suffice.

Great game, go Hawks!!
Click to expand...
Bingo
 
bonefish1 said:
Full disclosure: Purdue grad here.
I think it's going to be a tighter game for 30 minutes and then Purdue will maintain a 8-11 point cushion late in the second half.
I doubt PU is on fire from 3 to start but if they get the open looks, they'll shoot. Will be interesting to see if McCaf has the same defensive philosophy as the first game: Pack the paint and make PU shoot 3s. The problem is, if Iowa starts guarding the 3 pt line, you open up the paint for Biggie and Haas to do damage and get your young bigs in foul trouble early.
I expect Iowa to make a lot more shots at home but if PU isn't hitting jumpers early, Painter will just have them feed the post until Iowa shows they can defend it.
I think Iowa is a similar matchup for Purdue as Wisky was and if PU doesn't let Jok go crazy, they can handle the other guys.
Boilers 78
Hawks 67
Click to expand...
where'd you go?
 
bonefish1 said:
Full disclosure: Purdue grad here.
I think it's going to be a tighter game for 30 minutes and then Purdue will maintain a 8-11 point cushion late in the second half.
I doubt PU is on fire from 3 to start but if they get the open looks, they'll shoot. Will be interesting to see if McCaf has the same defensive philosophy as the first game: Pack the paint and make PU shoot 3s. The problem is, if Iowa starts guarding the 3 pt line, you open up the paint for Biggie and Haas to do damage and get your young bigs in foul trouble early.
I expect Iowa to make a lot more shots at home but if PU isn't hitting jumpers early, Painter will just have them feed the post until Iowa shows they can defend it.
I think Iowa is a similar matchup for Purdue as Wisky was and if PU doesn't let Jok go crazy, they can handle the other guys.
Boilers 78
Hawks 67
Click to expand...
I know your post was suppose to make sense and you seem nice and all telling us we were going to lose and you are likable enough;


Reap it! 83-78
 
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