You responded to otimeletterman’s comment on symptomless sickness.
I chimed in with my opinion as I am wont to do.
That’s how forums work.
New COVID survival rates. Good news.
- Thread starter biggreydogs
- Start date
I chimed in with my opinion as I am wont to do.
That’s how forums work.
No.
You can have hepatitis for decades before you develop liver failure or liver cancer.
And never know it until it's too late.
And infect lots of other people exposed to your blood or other biological fluids.
That's science!!!
Guess what?
We did "wait two weeks" after Sturgis.
And what happened in SD and ND?
SD: Cases were running 70-80 per day (7-day running average). Within two weeks of the start of Sturgis, they started jumping up to >300. Dipped to 220 and now rocketed back up to >350.
ND: Cases were running ~120/day. Sharp upturn starting Aug 20 to >250. Currently almost 400/day.
Like clockwork, "in two weeks" both states had outbreaks 4x to 5x what they had in July.
Same with deaths. ND as seen deaths, just about 2 weeks after their case spikes, 4x higher for the 7 day running averages.
And we're still a month away from actual "flu season".
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/south-dakota/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/north-dakota/
Got Google, Jethro?
Got Google, Jethro?
That lists "scenarios".
I posted the ACTUAL DATA from CDCs site.
Data vs Speculation
Got Google? See if Google can provide those definitions for ya.
The OP just can't help himself. Demonstrating he's not smart enough to understand the difference between the CFR and the IFR gives him a thril up his leg. In the spirit of full disclosure, I have to admit I find his ignorance prety damn entertaining too.
Got Google, Jethro?
Here's a good summary of IFRs vs CFRs
Covid is at least 6x more lethal and dangerous than flu. Probably much worse
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/08/02/answers-utahns-frequently/
“What are the differences and similarities between COVID-19 and our traditional flu?”
There are four types of influenza — A, B, C, and D. The first two, A and B, are the common ones, and within A and B, there are different subtypes and strains. For example, swine flu, or H1N1, is a type of Influenza A. Every year, to develop the seasonal flu vaccine, we make informed guesses on which ones are going to spread most.
Still, compared to COVID-19, they all have significant differences.
COVID-19 is more contagious. The seasonal flu typically has a contagion rate of about 1.3, which means the average infected person passes it along to 0.9 to 2.1 others. The contagion rate for the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic has been estimated to be about 1.4-2.8, while the H1N1 epidemic of 2009 had a contagion rate of 1.4-1.6. COVID-19′s default contagion rate appears to be between 2 and 3.
Now, that may not seem like a big difference, but it is. One point of contagion rate makes a huge difference in how quickly a disease spreads, because the process is exponential.
COVID-19 symptoms are generally more severe and less predictable. COVID-19 symptoms usually come on slower, which means that a person is likely the most contagious right before they start feeling sick. The disease is also much more likely to attack the circulatory system: patients with COVID-19 were nine times more likely to have blood clots in their lungs than patients with H1N1.
However, for children, the flu is more likely to lead to severe sickness than COVID-19. Some kids get quite sick from the coronavirus and a rare few have gotten Kawasaki-syndrome-like illness, but usually, for kids, the flu is the worse disease to face.
Flu treatments are well established. We have lots of good treatments for the flu, however, only a couple for COVID-19 have been discovered and approved so far.
COVID-19 is more deadly than the flu. This was Herbert’s next question.
“How much more deadly is COVID-19 than is the flu?”
There are two ways to look at deaths: there is the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infection fatality rate (IFR). The case fatality rate is simple division: you divide the number of deaths by the number of people who tested positive.
The infection fatality rate divides deaths by the total number of infected people, not just people who were fortunate or proactive enough to get a test. Thanks to antibody surveys from all over the world, we have a much better idea of the IFR than we did before.
Using both methods, the death rate for the flu is much lower than that for COVID-19. For the 2009 pandemic flu, the CFR in the U.S. was 0.6%, with an IFR of 0.02%. In the U.S., COVID-19′s CFR is at 3.4%, about six times higher. And the Centers for Disease Control and Preventions’ current best estimate of the IFR is 0.65% in the U.S, and that feels about right given serological studies done in Indiana, Spain, Iceland, and the U.K. That’s about 30 times higher than the flu.
(chart shows the relative comparison here)
A Flourish chart
We should note that Utah’s case fatality rate right now is 0.76%, though remember that some people who currently have the virus will die and that may boost that somewhat in the final calculus. Dunn noted in her answer that the number of Utahns who have died of the coronavirus in the past five months has already topped the number of Utahns who died of the flu during the most recent flu season, which spans nine months.
Why is Utah’s COVID-19 fatality rate so low? Utah’s version of the coronavirus isn’t different than anywhere else’s, but Utahns have been more likely to get tested — about one in six Utahns have been. Moreover, Utah’s population is younger and healthier than anywhere else: A recent University of Utah study found that about a quarter of Utah’s lower fatality rate was due to our younger population.
You posted your incoprehnsion of the differnce betwen the CFR and the IFR. Then you posted that you're too dumb to realize you posted an ilustration of your incoprehension ofthe difference betwen the CFR and the IFR
How 'bout going for a hat trick of ignorance? Just for grins!
Using both methods, the death rate for the flu is much lower than that for COVID-19. For the 2009 pandemic flu, the CFR in the U.S. was 0.6%, with an IFR of 0.02%. In the U.S., COVID-19′s CFR is at 3.4%, about six times higher. And the Centers for Disease Control and Preventions’ current best estimate of the IFR is 0.65% in the U.S, and that feels about right given serological studies done in Indiana, Spain, Iceland, and the U.K. That’s about 30 times higher than the flu.
This is literally what my numbers convey to you: Covid is ~30x more lethal than flu, across MOST demographics.
No. I posted RELATIVE RISK RATIOS.
Using the CFR data.
Guess what? They match this other source!!!!
SCIENCE!!!
