You do realize how most guys win Manager of the year, right? You have to have a couple crappy seasons followed by a good year to get that award. It's the same as "Comeback player of the year".
*****Official Cubs 2018 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
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And I don't give a shit about what you think. You're the loser trolling a Cubs thread on Hawkeye Report. You're getting your jollies off about the AL being better... not even your own team. As a Cubs fan I don't give two shits about the National League, I care about Cubs. Says a lot about you that you're dry humping the AL so you have something to fall back on when the Yanks drop the wild card game and don't even make the NLDS.
That's my long winded opinion, in short, eat shit.
Joe Maddon won manager of the Year in 2011, in 2010 his Rays won 96 games.
Another swing and miss for Mitch
Not a rental.... you'd have to get two studs. I think signing Machado in the offseason, if you trade Bryant and sign Machado, you've upgraded.
Look at the Cubs' records after the All-Star break the last few years under Maddon. His strength is managing a club over the long haul.
...i'm a die hard cubs fan, love this team. I love Joe. Think he sucks with the pen. Think Bryant isn't as good as Manny. I stick with my love of Javy and Schwarber. How many times has Bryant failed in situations where you expect your best players to come through? Maybe it's an anomaly, maybe it's his make up. I don't hate Kris, I just think they could get to really good pitchers for him for a couple seasons, and spend money on a guy who woulds be even better.
Kris is having a down year no doubt but his ops this year is still higher than machado has put up in his career and kris has never had a year with an ops below .800, machado has had several including last year.
Again, what team is trading really good MLB pitchers to get a guy three years from hitting free agency? This imaginary trade makes no sense from the standpoint of the other team. Either you're rebuilding or you're contending. Rebuilding teams aren't going to give up their best assets for three, not that cheap, years of control. Contending teams aren't going to give up their best pitchers.
How do I look up the stats on late and close at bats? Id like to contrast the 2. I think you'd have to admit, a comparison of this club with 2 stud starting pitchers and Machado versus this club now..... would favor the former. Also, do people think ...i'm saying to trade for Machado? ...I'm absolutely not.
I think the Mets would. Maybe DeGrom and another one, ...i'm not sure what they have in the minors. I don't think it's likely. I just think id pull the trigger if I felt I could sign manny to play 3rd, and add an Ace and another decent starter, stud pen arm.
The Cubs bullpen had the third best ERA in the majors in the first half, while having only two guys, Cishek and Strop in the top 80 in bullpen innings pitched. I don't think a lot of managers could have handled a pen any better than Maddon did in the first half, distributing a large workload across a lot of different guys. Not being afraid to throw the Iowa guys into high leverage spots right away. Not wearing out Strop, Edwards and Morrow.
FanGraphs has splits by "leverage" situations. I'll use last 4 years slash lines for each, since KB only has 4 years of history:
Bryant
Career slash: .286/.387/.520/.907, 23.4 K%
Low Leverage
2015: .245/.349/.424/.773, 31.1 K% in 315 PA
2016: .307/.403/.604/1.007, 19.6 K% in 377 PA
2017: .322/.428/.606/1.034, 19.9 K% in 367 PA
2018: .319/.417/.514/.932, 21.5 K% in 163 PA
Medium Leverage
2015: .305/.394/.582/.976, 31.7 K% in 246 PA
2016: .293/.378/.541/.919, 22.1 K% in 262 PA
2017: .286/.399/.503/.902, 18.1 K% in 238 PA
2018: .248/.353/.474/.826, 20.5 K% in 156 PA
High Leverage
2015: .299/.371/.455/.825, 25.8 K% in 89 PA
2016: .196/.300/.294/.594, 36.7 K% in 60 PA
2017: .140/.333/.209/.543, 20.0 K% in 60 PA
2018: .241/.371/.345/.716, 17.1 K% in 35 PA
Manny Machado
Career slash: .283/.336/.486/.822, 16.3 K%
Low Leverage
2015: .286/.366/.516/.822, 14.2 K% in 325 PA
2016: .291/.333/.527/.861, 17.3 K% in 369 PA
2017: .261/.306/.439/.745, 14.9 K% in 409 PA
2018: .308/.369/.585/.954, 13.1 K% in 214 PA
Medium Leverage
2015: .303/.371/.514/.884, 14.2 K% in 331 PA
2016: .320/.362/.570/.932, 15.5 K% in 265 PA
2017: .234/.300/.463/.763, 20.7 K% in 227 PA
2018: .318/.370/.541/.911, 12.1 K% in 173 PA
High Leverage
2015: .192/.246/.365/.611, 31.6 K% in 57 PA
2016: .184/.323/.388/.710, 24.2 K% in 62 PA
2017: .356/.389/.778/1.167, 13.0 K% in 54 PA
2018: .385/.585/.654/1.239, 7.3 K% in 41 PA
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Thank you. Are there 3 categories or 2? Not what I expected completely, but close.
If you trade Bryant because of "clutch" performance, you're trading him away based on something close to 10% of his overall plate appearances. It's a small sample size and as stats generally bear out, is likely to vary significantly over the course of his career. He was good in High Leverage spots as a rookie and he's much better this year in spite of having a bad year overall.
You pay your stars top come through under pressure. Everyone wants to bash Yu, but Bryant seems to press a ton anymore. He's a great player and teammate ...i'm sure, I would just prefer using him to get pitching and using money to get Machado
Sure, but clutchness has been shown to be highly variable over the years looking across a large number players over large number of years. In 2016 & 2017, KB was historically bad in "clutch" situations, but he was good in 2015, so it's not like he's magically incapable.
The problem with trading a guy like KB is that you generally don't get equivalent value back. KB has been a top-5 level hitter his first 3 seasons. He's having a rough year this year, but I don't think there's any real change in who he is.
There is a "Trade Value" rating done by FanGraphs for the top 50 players every year for the last 6 years. It factors in age, health, contract, positional scarcity, defense, park factors, etc. It's an attempt to measure how much return a player would command on the market. The top 15 (just finished recently), in order are Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Luis Severino, Kris Bryant (previously 4th), Corey Kluber, Corey Seager, Andrew Benintendi, Ozzie Albies.
To get value, you'd have to trade KB for either a Kluber/Severino/Nola type starter. DeGrom and Syndegaard come in at 25 & 29, respectively. Neither lines up with Bryant 1-1 and it's not likely that the Mets are going to give up both. Trades involving guys on this level are so hard to pull off because generally good teams that can provide similar value aren't going to want to subtract from their ML rosters and teams that aren't good will want prospects and more lottery tickets than just a single guy who they only have control over for 3 years.
The other thing to consider is what the Cubs have already done chasing pitching. Gleyber Torres & others for Chapman. Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease & others for Quintana. KB, too? It's pretty risky to trade a guy of KB's stature.
I understand the risk, and if the Mets were willing to do Bryant plus another for Thor and DeGrom, I'd think you'd have to do that, knowing you can buy a young 3rd basemen in Machado. Look it's highly unlikely, neat impossible. ...i'm just saying id try to do it.
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs make a run at Machado as it is. I think they'll go in big on someone next offseason and Bryant is versatile enough to move into the OF or maybe Russell is used as a piece of a bigger deal to get a starter.
It's easy to say that right now. We'll see what that does with his pool of suitors and what he does when offers are on the table.
I know he wasn't with the Cubs at the time, but this is an artist at work. Plus, you get to see the Cubs' lineup that day:
link to boxscore --> https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199707221.shtml
Glanville CF
Dunston SS
Grace 1B
Sosa RF
Clark LF
Sandberg 2B
Houston 3B
Servais C
Gonzalez P
link to boxscore --> https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199707221.shtml
Glanville CF
Dunston SS
Grace 1B
Sosa RF
Clark LF
Sandberg 2B
Houston 3B
Servais C
Gonzalez P
We will never know, but my assumption is he was hurt more than we knew, and should have gone on the DL earlier.
Just a guess but i would say he’ll take 35 a year to play ss over 40 a year to play 3b. If the money is further apart it might not be so easy.
Here is the thing, he's a a real....it good defender at 3rd, with a great bat. He's an average at best defender at SS, with a phenomenal bat. Which one is more valuable?
Would you get 2015 Britton? That is the question.
Also, Drew Smyly threw a simulated game yesterday. He could be a viable arm in September.
Wow, gone are the days of 'he sure seems to get a lot of big hits' It said that team win expectancy is factored into it. It's interesting that Machados high leverage numbers in the years the Orioles were decent(in the 4 year window) were far inferior to his numbers when they were horrible. How does that factor into it?
@MitchL does have a point though.
At some point, the Cubs are going to be beset with paying quite a few now-inexpensive players much larger sums of money. I said exactly that in 2016. Even with a situation as flush with cash as the Cubs are...they are indeed not going to be able to pay everybody.
2020 I'd say would be when it begins in earnest, but next year things start to happen.
2019
Quintana ($10.5M team, +$1.65M)
Strop ($6.25M team, +$400k)
Bryant (arb, $10.5M this yr)
Hendricks (arb, $4.17M this yr)
Chavez (FA)
LaStella (arb, >$1M this yr)
Baez (arb, >$1M this yr)
Montgomery (arb, <$1M this yr)
Schwarber (arb, <$1M this yr)
Contreras (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Edwards (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Almora (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Wilson (FA)
Heyward/Darvish/Rizzo/Zobrist, total drops roughly $10M for one year only - this offsets the above somewhat.
But 2020...yowza, because you have a bunch of key guys hitting arbitration or in their 2nd year of it, and Rizzo's contract climbs to $16.5M if the team chooses the options, Morrow's option is $12M. Now, Lester provides some savings, but still.
To me, and I will admit I don't know the Cubs' system as well as Cub fans do...but by 2020 the Cubs will be "graduating" players that were drafted by the time they started no longer drafting at the top of the order, but the bottom. To me, the numbers I'd bet will indicate, you'll be bringing up "good players" and no longer bringing up "great players".
You better hope that the system is producing a LOT of good players I'd say by 2020/2021 at the latest, and hitting on intl signings you've made recently. And you're also counting on the vets that are locked up continuing to produce.
Theo's done a good job playing this all out to front end guys he could front-end when the kids there now were still cheap...but that window is closing - and a lot of hard decisions are coming. You're probably talking about trying to buy out arbitration years with some, and rolling the dice with others or cutting bait early if forced to by the farm not producing.
At some point, the Cubs are going to be beset with paying quite a few now-inexpensive players much larger sums of money. I said exactly that in 2016. Even with a situation as flush with cash as the Cubs are...they are indeed not going to be able to pay everybody.
2020 I'd say would be when it begins in earnest, but next year things start to happen.
2019
Quintana ($10.5M team, +$1.65M)
Strop ($6.25M team, +$400k)
Bryant (arb, $10.5M this yr)
Hendricks (arb, $4.17M this yr)
Chavez (FA)
LaStella (arb, >$1M this yr)
Baez (arb, >$1M this yr)
Montgomery (arb, <$1M this yr)
Schwarber (arb, <$1M this yr)
Contreras (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Edwards (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Almora (last yr pre-arb, <$1M this yr)
Wilson (FA)
Heyward/Darvish/Rizzo/Zobrist, total drops roughly $10M for one year only - this offsets the above somewhat.
But 2020...yowza, because you have a bunch of key guys hitting arbitration or in their 2nd year of it, and Rizzo's contract climbs to $16.5M if the team chooses the options, Morrow's option is $12M. Now, Lester provides some savings, but still.
To me, and I will admit I don't know the Cubs' system as well as Cub fans do...but by 2020 the Cubs will be "graduating" players that were drafted by the time they started no longer drafting at the top of the order, but the bottom. To me, the numbers I'd bet will indicate, you'll be bringing up "good players" and no longer bringing up "great players".
You better hope that the system is producing a LOT of good players I'd say by 2020/2021 at the latest, and hitting on intl signings you've made recently. And you're also counting on the vets that are locked up continuing to produce.
Theo's done a good job playing this all out to front end guys he could front-end when the kids there now were still cheap...but that window is closing - and a lot of hard decisions are coming. You're probably talking about trying to buy out arbitration years with some, and rolling the dice with others or cutting bait early if forced to by the farm not producing.
Essentially, it's an attempt to find possible changes in win expectancy during a particular plate appearance, factoring in current game state, inning & score. You take that potential win expectancy change and multiply by the odds of the change occurring, add them up and divide by the average potential swing. That gives the "Leverage Index (LI)", where 1 is average. FanGraphs creates 3 bins:
Low: LI of 0-0.85
Medium: 0.85-2.0
High: 2.0+
Some added context from FanGraphs:
A simple example will make that much easier to comprehend. Imagine the home team has a WE of 0.60 and then let’s assume that there are only two possible outcomes of this play (Single, Strikeout) just for clarity’s sake. Imagine each occurs 50% of the time on average (Again, just for clarity). Let’s say the WE after a single would be 0.7 and the WE after a strikeout would be 0.4. Let’s also say that the average swing is 0.04.
To get the LI of this fictional situation, you would take (0.1*0.5 +0.2*0.5)/0.04. This would be an LI of 3.75, which is extremely high! This makes a great deal of sense because the potential change in WE during this one at bat is quite large. It could end at 70% or 40% when most only have a spread of about 4%.
If you’re curious, you should read the linked article from Tango because he offers a more thorough explanation. In real life, there are more than two possible outcomes, so you have to average over far more possible scenarios. There are also other ways of arriving at the same answer, but this method is typically the easiest to understand.
On using it:
● If you go to a player’s “Splits” section his FanGraphs player page, you can find how the player performed in low, medium, and high leverage situations. While some players may have performed well in high-leverage situations compared to their average performance, that does not necessarily mean they will continue to produce that way in the future. “Clutch hitting” is generally the result of small sample sizesand random variation. A player shown to be very clutch one season does not necessarily mean that he will be very clutch in the next.
I think the stats above bear that out. KB and Machado have both had very good and very bad "clutch" seasons.
I think one thing we'll see is Theo start working in the margins around guys he thinks will be the long-term keepers. Come 2021, he won't be signing Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras all together. I think over the next two off-seasons we'll see the Cubs make some deals involving guys they can replace from within. A lot of these guys are still young. If I had to guess right now, the Cubs would likely focus on keeping Bryant, Baez and Contreras. If true, I could certainly see Schwarber, Russell, Happ and Almora having potentially good trade value
The Cubs do have some kids performing well in the low minors, so hopefully those guys continue to progress. Caratini and Bote look like solid players who can help fill gaps as guys move on. Maybe Caratini eventually replaces Rizzo.
