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*****Official Cubs 2018 thread*****

hawkifann said:
I wouldn't even consider it for Jason DeGrom....but for Jacob, I'd have to consider it. Still, that's a chunk to give up. He might be worth it.....but pitchers are always a roll of the dice.

As for what's left, the Cubs have some depth to deal, but it's always a dicey proposition to subtract a ML starter or major bench piece from a team in contention. I'd probably consider the deal if Montgomery was one of the two, but I don't think I can do a Happ/Russell deal. That's two significant pieces.

Which Alomar would we have in the OF? I don't want to see Sandy out there in CF ;)
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Dream big. I hope that is what Theo is doing.
 
lucas80 said:
Dream big. I hope that is what Theo is doing.
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I think it would have to be Montgomery plus, not Russell and Happ. Would you do it for Russell, Happ and a prospect? That's a lot of ML position time gone off a roster midseason.
 
lucas80 said:
Snoops said:
To get the last out.
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Edwards could have done that given the three run lead. Four games in five days and they used at least five relievers in the first game. Save some bullets, Joe.
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Joe gave him a chance to get the last out and he could not do it. With the way he was being hit, that last out might not have come until the game was tied. Even one of the two outs was a hard shot right at Russell that would have been a hit if it was a couple of feet either way.

The three run lead was not comfortable like your line of reasoning implies. The wind was blowing out and Pham was the tying run in the on deck circle, the same guy who put one on Waveland earlier in the game. You need to end the game with Fowler, and going to Strop was the right move based on how Edwards was being hit.
 
Montgomery, Happ/Schwarber/Russel/Almora pick one, and any minor leaguer you want or maybe two depending on who you pick. DeGrom is a game changer. Makes us NL contenders to NL Favorites and gives a shot at one of the AL teams. DO IT if you can.
 
jpphawk said:
Montgomery, Happ/Schwarber/Russel/Almora pick one, and any minor leaguer you want or maybe two depending on who you pick. DeGrom is a game changer. Makes us NL contenders to NL Favorites and gives a shot at one of the AL teams. DO IT if you can.
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I would love DeGrom. I think my hard stop is two current bats of the ML team. I think that's too much production/chemistry to deal mid-season, even for a legit ace. Say it was Happ and Russell.....now you're replacing the starting SS and a guy who plays regularly at 2B and the OF. Baez slides over, Zobrist moves to 2B and Bote sticks in the bigs. It's ok, but you've lost flexibility and depth. Position players can be a factor in every game. Cubs have 68 games left. Russell likely starts 60 of those. Happ, what, 45? Schwarber or Almora would probably be 50-55. That's a lot of starts and at-bats in exchange for a guy who, if the Cubs acquired him this week, would start 12 games? Obviously DeGrom has massive playoff value, but I'm hesitant to create weakness somewhere else......but for 1 position player plus Monty and kid/kids? Yes, please.
 
Monty + Happ or Russell + prospects for deGrom?

Hell yes you make that deal.

Only thing that gives me pause is deGrom being 30 years old already. You’re probably not getting too many years out of him while the Mets could get anywhere from 5-10 years out of Happ or Russell.
 
MuscoHawk said:
Monty + Happ or Russell + prospects for deGrom?

Hell yes you make that deal.

Only thing that gives me pause is deGrom being 30 years old already. You’re probably not getting too many years out of him while the Mets could get anywhere from 5-10 years out of Happ or Russell.
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On that front, he's 30 and under team control through the 2020 season. That lines up almost perfectly with the Cubs current window. I'm not that concerned about that aspect of things. He's making $7.4M this year and has two arb years left before he hits free agency, so he'll be pretty reasonably priced.

The Cubs and Mets are playing different windows, so I don't really care much about the 5-10 years of Happ/Russell vs. 2+ of DeGrom. Of course the Cubs are going to trade for the short-term while the Mets are looking down the road.
 
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hawkifann said:
On that front, he's 30 and under team control through the 2020 season. That lines up almost perfectly with the Cubs current window. I'm not that concerned about that aspect of things. He's making $7.4M this year and has two arb years left before he hits free agency, so he'll be pretty reasonably priced.

The Cubs and Mets are playing different windows, so I don't really care much about the 5-10 years of Happ/Russell vs. 2+ of DeGrom. Of course the Cubs are going to trade for the short-term while the Mets are looking down the road.
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Ok. You talked me into it.
 
lucas80 said:
I know this is my own dead horse to beat, but why bring in Strop with two outs in the 9th?
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Stop the run before it gets any more momentum. Carl's Jr. had already gone almost two innings. Also, Strop gets the opportunity there to rack up a save and build his confidence more.
 
if the mets would do a deal for only montgomery, happ/russell and a prospect you do that deal in a second. not sure why the mets would do that deal.
 
dgordo said:
if the mets would do a deal for only montgomery, happ/russell and a prospect you do that deal in a second. not sure why the mets would do that deal.
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I suspect they would if it were two prospects, and then the negotiations get tough over what pool of prospects. There are some functional arms moving up the system finally, and some very intriguing IFA talent just poking through at Eugene and South Bend.
 
dgordo said:
if the mets would do a deal for only montgomery, happ/russell and a prospect you do that deal in a second. not sure why the mets would do that deal.
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If they do the deal, and I agree that it would be a long shot, it would be effectively like Russell/Happ as a "super prospect". They could sell DeGrom for a bunch of prospects, and some really highly rated ones, but they're not guarantee to stick. Getting Russell/Happ + Montgomery establishes a very clear floor for this trade. The Mets will be getting a guy that can fill a rotation spot (back end, but still can do it) and they get a guy under 25 who has already proven that he can stick in the majors and be a productive hitter (and in Russell's case, a plus defender). The top prospect would be the wild card, but they wouldn't be getting 3 wild cards.

That's the argument if it happens, but I'd be surprised if it does.
 
hawkifann said:
On that front, he's 30 and under team control through the 2020 season. That lines up almost perfectly with the Cubs current window. I'm not that concerned about that aspect of things. He's making $7.4M this year and has two arb years left before he hits free agency, so he'll be pretty reasonably priced.

The Cubs and Mets are playing different windows, so I don't really care much about the 5-10 years of Happ/Russell vs. 2+ of DeGrom. Of course the Cubs are going to trade for the short-term while the Mets are looking down the road.
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I know we talk about "windows", but at this point I think Theo should also be thinking about how he can extend this window in perpetuity and become an organization like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Yankees, or Red Sox who are in contention every single year. I'm not interested in the Cubs selling out for a five year window where they win one or two and go back to historical suckage again. I want this organization to be one that is competing for playoffs every single year and, when the stars line up or the team gets hot, you get a shot to win it all. The Cubs are a big market club and have the resources where this should be possible.

Point is, I'm keeping the depth and the future in Happ and Russell rather than sending them off for DeGrom. We would have an ace on the staff if Yu would ever take the hill again. If Yu is healthy and having the season he is being paid to have we aren't talking about trading assets like we are right now. We could get DeGrom and he could suffer "stiffness in his shoulder" 3 starts into his Cub career and now you've divested assets for yet another DL superstar. Pitchers are to injury prone.
 
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SoDakHawk said:
I know we talk about "windows", but at this point I think Theo should also be thinking about how he can extend this window in perpetuity and become an organization like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Yankees, or Red Sox who are in contention every single year. I'm not interested in the Cubs selling out for a five year window where they win one or two and go back to historical suckage again. I want this organization to be one that is competing for playoffs every single year and, when the stars line up or the team gets hot, you get a shot to win it all. The Cubs are a big market club and have the resources where this should be possible.

Point is, I'm keeping the depth and the future in Happ and Russell rather than sending them off for DeGrom. We would have an ace on the staff if Yu would ever take the hill again. If Yu is healthy and having the season he is being paid to have we aren't talking about trading assets like we are right now. We could get DeGrom and he could suffer "stiffness in his shoulder" 3 starts into his Cub career and now you've divested assets for yet another DL superstar. Pitchers are to injury prone.
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I don't disagree with the injury concern....and yet you need pitching in the post-season, so it's always a gamble.

As for the talk of windows, the ability of Theo to extend the window is going to mean specifically that they don't keep all these kids. The good and the bad of this current wave of Cub talent is that the team was so bad prior to the kids that they really all came up around the same time....which means their free agent years will all hit around the same time, which is also right there with the end of Jon Lester's and Anthony Rizzo's contracts. You're not just going to keep them all for ever.

So, there is this arbitrary 5-year windows just because of who is cost controlled and who is under contract. If you can flip a couple of these guys for players maybe better able to help win now, you not only increase the chances of winning now, but you create an opportunity in your organization. There is another wave of talent coming and by 2019-2021, there will be places to put the kids that emerge.

At the same time, the Cubs are going to have to pick who they pay and keep for the longer haul. It won't be all of them. Look at Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Baez, Russell, Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Lester, Zobrist who will all hit FA in 2020-2022. Lester and Zobrist will either retire, walk or take smaller contracts, so they won't be major factors at the ends of their careers. Rizzo might be in line for one more good payday, but I can't see the Cubs giving him many years. Out of the rest, a couple probably won't progress to the point where they'd be major FAs, but a couple will get some paydays. How many does it make sense to keep?

Of course, I'm not talking about dumping guys, but some organizational churn is a good thing because you really don't typically want a wave of young players that all come up together and then get expensive at the same time. Ideally, the Cubs would be rolling a couple decent kids in every year or two. That let's you do a lot of things and lets you take a run at some really interesting trade options. I did not intend my post to be read as "gut the system and do all things necessary to win in this 5 years"...it's just that moving some of these guys is a healthy thing.
 
SoDakHawk said:
We would have an ace on the staff if Yu would ever take the hill again. If Yu is healthy and having the season he is being paid to have we aren't talking about trading assets like we are right now. We could get DeGrom and he could suffer "stiffness in his shoulder" 3 starts into his Cub career and now you've divested assets for yet another DL superstar. Pitchers are to injury prone.
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Also, on this point, the Cubs might be talking about DeGrom anyway. He's the kind of talent you don't expect to pop up as potentially available at the trade deadline (and he may well not move at all). That's not a "usual suspects" play like Chris Archer.

What the trade would do, is these things:

1) Take the pressure off Darvish to some extent
2) Give the Cubs a guy who can be an ace now and for the next couple of years
3) Really stabilize the rotation. Lester is still pitching really well and he's morphing amazingly well into a guy with less velocity as he gets older, but his days of really being an ace are close to done if they're not already. He's a good pitcher who isn't afraid of the big spot, so he'll still dogfight his way through really big games, but he's not just going to walk out there and blow guys away anymore.
4) It's a hedge on Hendricks. Hendricks was rough the first half of last year and has been up and down this year. His stuff isn't great, so he relies on being precise and if that wavers, he's pretty hittable.

With DeGrom, you have 2 more years lined up where you can go DeGrom, Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana (and then if Chatwood can ever develop command, he goes in the mix somewhere). It also means that there are trade possibilities as well. Likely not deadline deals, but off-season packages.
 
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I get it, you're talking about staggering player's free agent dates. I agree, you do need some organizational churn and staggering of contracts so you can just plug, play, and remain competitive.

Of the players you listed that are must keeps that will need to be paid, I'm keeping Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber. I think you could also keep Almora/Happ because he will come cheaper than the first group. I could handle losing Russell.

Lester and Zobrist you can allow to walk given their age, though if they want to end their careers here and are willing to give a hometown discount to do so you do it.

Rizzo is the tough one. He's going to want to get paid, but he'll probably never live up to the contract. I'm guessing he walks, unless he wants to do a reasonable contract. I hope he does and retires as a Cub because he has the chance in retirement to live a life as a Cub legend and Chicago hero, and there is something to be said for that and that revenue stream that status will produce. He'll already have all the money he will ever need.
 
hawkifann said:
Also, on this point, the Cubs might be talking about DeGrom anyway. He's the kind of talent you don't expect to pop up as potentially available at the trade deadline (and he may well not move at all). That's not a "usual suspects" play like Chris Archer.

What the trade would do, is these things:

1) Take the pressure off Darvish to some extent
2) Give the Cubs a guy who can be an ace now and for the next couple of years
3) Really stabilize the rotation. Lester is still pitching really well and he's morphing amazingly well into a guy with less velocity as he gets older, but his days of really being an ace are close to done if they're not already. He's a good pitcher who isn't afraid of the big spot, so he'll still dogfight his way through really big games, but he's not just going to walk out there and blow guys away anymore.
4) It's a hedge on Hendricks. Hendricks was rough the first half of last year and has been up and down this year. His stuff isn't great, so he relies on being precise and if that wavers, he's pretty hittable.

With DeGrom, you have 2 more years lined up where you can go DeGrom, Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana (and then if Chatwood can ever develop command, he goes in the mix somewhere). It also means that there are trade possibilities as well. Likely not deadline deals, but off-season packages.
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You've talked me into. Make the deal. The way I see it, if you give up Monty, Happ, & 2 prospects, you can basically find a Monty-like reliever somewhere else. Prospects are just that, no guarantees there. So you've basically traded Happ for DeGrom. Don't know why the Mets would do that other than they need to stockpile bodies and see who can come out of the haul they get.
 
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SoDakHawk said:
I get it, you're talking about staggering player's free agent dates. I agree, you do need some organizational churn and staggering of contracts so you can just plug, play, and remain competitive.

Of the players you listed that are must keeps that will need to be paid, I'm keeping Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber. I think you could also keep Almora/Happ because he will come cheaper than the first group. I could handle losing Russell.

Lester and Zobrist you can allow to walk given their age, though if they want to end their careers here and are willing to give a hometown discount to do so you do it.

Rizzo is the tough one. He's going to want to get paid, but he'll probably never live up to the contract. I'm guessing he walks, unless he wants to do a reasonable contract. I hope he does and retires as a Cub because he has the chance in retirement to live a life as a Cub legend and Chicago hero, and there is something to be said for that and that revenue stream that status will produce. He'll already have all the money he will ever need.
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The biggest thing on the Happ/Russell thing is that Russell doesn't stagger at all and Happ is only 1 year later than a lot of those guys. If Happ was a rookie now, I'd be more like your original line of thinking because he'd still be a cost-controlled part of the next window after 2020/2021.

As for the rest, for me, I'd keep Bryant, Baez, Contreras for sure and see how the rest of the guys develop. I still think Schwarber eventually goes in a deal to an AL club (unless the next CBA brings the DH to the NL). Almora and Happ still have time to develop and could each still have pretty high ceilings. You say that Happ won't cost as much, but if he suddenly cuts Ks the way Baez has, his potential is still really high.

I feel like you do about Rizzo. I'd love to see him do a team-friendly deal and retire a Cub, but he already did that in 2014. He is probably the poster example of a player simply handing away his best earning years. The deal made sense at the time, as he was young and it locked in more money than he'd have had in arbitration, but in retrospect, he left a lot of cash on the table. Would he do that twice? He's a Cub legend and Cub fans will love him forever either way.
 
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Well, I'd say the Cubs are gonna sweep tomorrow. Every time StL's offense busts out, the next day they score practically zilch.

At least that's the script so far this year.
 
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