This summarizes the weird spot the Cubs are in. People are pissed that they're not adding more salary and they're simultaneously pissed that they're paying so much for Heyward, Darvish, Kimbrel, etc.
The inability to develop even a channel of so-so velocity arms to stock the pen and a #5 slot in the rotation meant that the Cubs had to go trade for Q, sign Darvish, trade for Hamels, sign Hamels and sign Kimbrel. Those moves were all expensive in one way or another and it loaded up the payroll at a time when KB, Javy, Hendricks, Schwarber and Contreras have all gotten significantly more expensive in the past couple of years. KB, Javy, Schwarber and Contreras will continue to rise in price up to the point where they're extended, traded or leave via FA.
Theo has a tricky line to ride. We all want an on-going, developing core where some guys move on, some get traded and more young talent is ready to rise to the bigs. In the ideal, you'd have 4-5 players you're paying serious money as your core, maybe another 8-10 guys on solid veteran deals/mid-range arb deals and then you're filling the rest with cost-controlled young guys. A roster like that will probably put your payroll right around $180-210M.
That's actually about where the Cubs are now. They have what I would consider 4 "big" deals - Lester, Heyward, Darvish and KB (he's ahead of the normal arb curve). They have 7-8 of those vet/mid-arb deals, depending on how you count Contreras. The bigger problem, really, is who is getting those contracts. Heyward has been a disappointment and not worth the money for most of the contract. Lester was a fantastic investment and has certainly paid for himself, but this is the back-end that was expected when he signed. The trade for Quintana cost the Cubs a couple guys who might look really valuable now as dynamic cost-controlled guys. Chatwood has been a bust and Kimbrel is on the back side of his career, even as he could still be effective.
If the Cubs had a different mix, but the same offseason, sentiment would be very different. The Dodgers haven't done much and they're still seen as a favorite for obvious reasons. If Chatwood was even a solid 3/4 level starter, Lester still closer to his ace days, and the Cubs had a solid CF and a group of young arms in the pen, I think we'd all be pretty excited right now even without big moves. As it is, we have the payroll of a complete team with what appears to be 1 empty rotation spot and questions in another and no obvious answer at CF and 2B or the leadoff spot, not to mention questions in the bullpen.
Theo now has to figure out how to improve the team while staying within some spending margins (you should be able to win for $208M) all while looking at potentially significant raises for KB, Javy, Schwarber and Contreras coming again next year.
