First of all, because he's a wealthy white congresscritter, I doubt he is ever "arrested."
How about this, if Gaetz is ever INDICTED for a crime involving a minor and sexual behavior, that is a "win" for me. We probably also need a timeline for when if he's not indicted, we declare you a winner. The wheels of justice, obviously, grind slow, so maybe 18 months from today?
Wager would be if Gaetz is indicted for anything related to sexual behavior with a minor within the next 18 months (July 12, 2023 is exactly 18 months from today) I win. If he's still roaming around acting like an asshat and hasn't been indicted you win.
Now, what are the prizes/punishments for winning/losing?