****official polarvotexmagedon****

[QChawks]

27 January 2021. 18:00

STORM UPDATE: Round 2.

- Best guess timeframe: Saturday afternoon through Sunday.


Ok, here we go again, not quite ready to pull the trigger but confidence is definitely increasing. The NWS is basing most of their forecast on the Euro and partially the Canadian models as they have been the most consistent. The American models - GFS - have shown a storm for sure but their tracks have been kinda all over the place, still hitting us, but not consistent until maybe the last run or two now.

As of right now, this storm looks to remain all snow for the QCA. It's possible points just south of us have some mixed precip at times, but I don't see that lasting long with this current consistent track of the Euro. But again, for the QCA, should be all snow.

You should know by now I won't talk about specific amounts from just under 72 hours away, but there should be more moisture with this storm than the one Monday if that tells you anything.

Anyone forecasting totals now will be wrong. That's just how it works. Maybe by tomorrow night we can start that discussion.

IF Winter Storm Watches will be issued, and I expect they will be, they could be issued as early as tomorrow afternoon if we are talking a Saturday afternoon start. They need to be issued 48 hours or so prior to the storm to give time for Warnings to be issued so the public can be well aware of it. Could be as late as Friday morning also.

Now, this storm should also be stronger than the last one meaning we'd have stronger winds, this to me, would flirt with Blizzard territory. Again, right now, can make that call, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

Don't get excited, or mad, yet. Just know confidence is increasing dramatically.

More tomorrow...

 

[QChawks]

 

[ironside1]

27 January 2021. 18:00

STORM UPDATE: Round 2.

- Best guess timeframe: Saturday afternoon through Sunday.


Ok, here we go again, not quite ready to pull the trigger but confidence is definitely increasing. The NWS is basing most of their forecast on the Euro and partially the Canadian models as they have been the most consistent. The American models - GFS - have shown a storm for sure but their tracks have been kinda all over the place, still hitting us, but not consistent until maybe the last run or two now.

As of right now, this storm looks to remain all snow for the QCA. It's possible points just south of us have some mixed precip at times, but I don't see that lasting long with this current consistent track of the Euro. But again, for the QCA, should be all snow.

You should know by now I won't talk about specific amounts from just under 72 hours away, but there should be more moisture with this storm than the one Monday if that tells you anything.

Anyone forecasting totals now will be wrong. That's just how it works. Maybe by tomorrow night we can start that discussion.

IF Winter Storm Watches will be issued, and I expect they will be, they could be issued as early as tomorrow afternoon if we are talking a Saturday afternoon start. They need to be issued 48 hours or so prior to the storm to give time for Warnings to be issued so the public can be well aware of it. Could be as late as Friday morning also.

Now, this storm should also be stronger than the last one meaning we'd have stronger winds, this to me, would flirt with Blizzard territory. Again, right now, can make that call, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

Don't get excited, or mad, yet. Just know confidence is increasing dramatically.

More tomorrow...

You better be back tomorrow with predictions!!

 

[torbee]

Actually got to ski in what passes for “powder” here in the Midwest last night! I’ve decided to embrace the chilly outdoors this winter. Have already skied 4 times.

 

[QChawks]

 

[torbee]

View embedded media

4 to 7 inches. That’s a slow Tuesday for OP’s mom.....

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

So sick of the snow.

 

[CadeHawk]

So sick of the snow.

I totally agree. You could snow ski on the pile at the bottom of my driveway.

I don’t know where I am going to put another six inches of snow.

 

[Rifler]

I don’t know where I am going to put another six inches of snow.

It's a real bitch to put it underneath the existing pile so I usually put it on top...

 

[QChawks]

So sick of the snow.

mom tired of blowing/shoveling but the kids have gone sledding more this year than the last three combined. I’m okay with that, better than sitting inside playing video games.

 

[torbee]

B U M P

 

[MepoDawg#]

Hopefully holds off until Saturday evening at least. Traveling to Chicago Friday night and back Saturday afternoon.

 

[torbee]

Hopefully holds off until Saturday evening at least. Traveling to Chicago Friday night and back Saturday afternoon.

I’m thinking of hitting Sundown to get some fresh powder runs in! Nothing like Midwest powder - interspersed with ice chunks and manufactured fake snow 😉.

 

[ironside1]

Bump for the predictions

 

[95Hawk]

From the National Weather Service Chicago forecast discussion bulletin from 3:06pm today:

The amount of moisture available with this system may lead to significant snowfall, with present models indicating amounts as great as 8+ inches possible!

 

[MepoDawg#]

Sounds like rain for the first few hours in SE Iowa.

 

[DogBoyRy]

mom tired of blowing/shoveling but the kids have gone sledding more this year than the last three combined. I’m okay with that, better than sitting inside playing video games.

She said it was the shoveling that tired her out huh?

 

[ironside1]

From the National Weather Service Chicago forecast discussion bulletin from 3:06pm today:

The amount of moisture available with this system may lead to significant snowfall, with present models indicating amounts as great as 8+ inches possible!

For Cedar Rapids this weekend the NWS is saying 2-4, Accuweather 7.5, Weather Underground 6.6, Weather Channel 6-10.

 

[TDJ7]

tree fiddy inches

 

[QChawks]

 

[lucas80]

2-4 inches in IC per the NWS.
I'll say it, Winter is almost over. I scoff at Winter. There has been no polar vortex, and we will have some mid 30s again next week.
Winter is over.

 

[unsubstantiated]

I totally agree. You could snow ski on the pile at the bottom of my driveway.

I don’t know where I am going to put another six inches of snow.

I pushed a bunch into my heated shop yesterday. I moved some stuff around and basically had a two-car wide stall full of snow, about 4 ft deep. By tomorrow it will all be gone.

It's probably tough on the propane bill, but I heat it anyway and I'm not poor. I only did it because I heard we could get another 8".

 

[ironside1]

So how much are we getting? Predictions for CR are all over the place from 2-4 with the NWS to 6-10 via Accuweather.

 

[torbee]

So how much are we getting? Predictions for CR are all over the place from 2-4 with the NWS to 6-10 via Accuweather.

Between 2 inches and 2 feet 😁

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[ironside1]

Between 2 inches and 2 feet 😁

Just crazy that a storm that is less than 24 hours away is causing mixed predictions. How can the NWS predict 2-4 with a Winter Storm Warning?

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[torbee]

Just crazy that a storm that is less than 24 hours away is causing mixed predictions. How can the NWS predict 2-4 with a Winter Storm Warning?

I talked to our meteorologists at WQAD about this back when I worked there. Apparently snowfall amounts are one of the most difficult things to predict due to so many variables. A slight change in temperature or storm track can make a huge difference.

I’ve also seen times when Davenport gets like 3 inches and the airport in Moline across the River gets 7. Highly variable.

 

[QChawks]

29 January 2021.

** WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FROM NOON TOMORROW UNTIL 3PM SUNDAY

- 1630 UPDATE - Having some concerns about this storm. Could become an ice storm more than anything. There's a TON of moisture with this storm, and the strength of the storm may tend to pull warmer air further north than models are currently showing. 18z models may be starting to catch on to that. Not making any calls tonight unless I see something drastic.

Except a morning update tomorrow...

Officially 4 to 6 inches of snow and possibly an ice glace at the beginning
Gusty winds.

I have thoughts, I'll update this post in a bit. Not sure I agree with the totals. still, too many variables in the models to be certain. Yes, I feel it will snow, no, I don't like the snow amounts forecasted.

more in a bit...

 

[torbee]

29 January 2021.

** WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FROM NOON TOMORROW UNTIL 3PM SUNDAY

- 1630 UPDATE - Having some concerns about this storm. Could become an ice storm more than anything. There's a TON of moisture with this storm, and the strength of the storm may tend to pull warmer air further north than models are currently showing. 18z models may be starting to catch on to that. Not making any calls tonight unless I see something drastic.

Except a morning update tomorrow...

Officially 4 to 6 inches of snow and possibly an ice glace at the beginning
Gusty winds.

I have thoughts, I'll update this post in a bit. Not sure I agree with the totals. still, too many variables in the models to be certain. Yes, I feel it will snow, no, I don't like the snow amounts forecasted.

more in a bit...

Worst thing about living down here instead of Wisconsin: freakin ICE! Even just up in Madison, ice storms are rare. Along I-80 it’s like half of our winter storms! 😡

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[ironside1]

I talked to our meteorologists at WQAD about this back when I worked there. Apparently snowfall amounts are one of the most difficult things to predict due to so many variables. A slight change in temperature or storm track can make a huge difference.

I’ve also seen times when Davenport gets like 3 inches and the airport in Moline across the River gets 7. Highly variable.

Yeah, I get it.

 

[win1forthe]

I talked to our meteorologists at WQAD about this back when I worked there. Apparently snowfall amounts are one of the most difficult things to predict due to so many variables. A slight change in temperature or storm track can make a huge difference.

I’ve also seen times when Davenport gets like 3 inches and the airport in Moline across the River gets 7. Highly variable.

When did you work at wqad?

 

[torbee]

When did you work at wqad?

2016-18

 

[win1forthe]

2016-18

90-97 here...

 

[hawkcub]

Worst thing about living down here instead of Wisconsin: freakin ICE! Even just up in Madison, ice storms are rare. Along I-80 it’s like half of our winter storms! 😡

Go even further south like KC ice is an even bigger percentage.

 

[hawkcub]

I talked to our meteorologists at WQAD about this back when I worked there. Apparently snowfall amounts are one of the most difficult things to predict due to so many variables. A slight change in temperature or storm track can make a huge difference.

I’ve also seen times when Davenport gets like 3 inches and the airport in Moline across the River gets 7. Highly variable.

I've always thought local guys always guess on the high side. This is probably why.

 

[bagdropper]

All depends on how far north the system goes. Could get rain/frzg rain, low end snow. Could get less water/more snow.

What temps any spot on the map has will determine things - but it looks like NW Illinois/far eastern Iowa is where the action will be.

 

[QChawks]

30 January 2021. 0400

** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN AFFECT FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

* Winter Storm Warning cancelled.

* 1-3 inches of snow is possible

* Strong SE switching to East winds are likely gusting to 35 mph.

* My confidence of the current forecast is low.

Well, I was afraid of this yesterday. Currently, there is STILL alot of variabilities in the models. So to me, this forecast as I'm about to lay it out, will be wrong.

Currently, temps SW of here are in the upper 30s and lower 40s into SW Iowa and Missouri.

The storm is developing well to our SW and is forecasted to take a track that normally gives us heavy precipitation and cold air. The problem is, there isn't that much deep cold around to be able to draw that close enough to us to keep us all snow.

Officially (when I use that term, I mean the National Weather Services forecast is...) snow will begin to fall sometime around the late morning or very early afternoon and quickly change to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain becoming all freezing rain for a short time then switching all to rain sometime in the later afternoon. Then, sometime mid evening, switch back to snow before ending sometime early tomorrow morning.

Do I think that's gonna happen? No...why? Too many models don't agree with what's happening. Some models still say plenty of snow, mainly the Euro and Canadian. Most American models say mostly rain with hardly any snow, which is what the official forecast is based on.

Do I think we'll get alot of snow?? No. I think what will happen will be somewhere in between what the NWS is forecasting as I laid out above and what the European is forecasting.

The QCA is right on the fringe of where the all rain side and all snow side of this storm will happen. Super small changes in storm development WILL affect us...they are impossible to see from this far out. Hopefully, later this afternoon as it's develops, the storm will reveal its true intentions.

Anytime we are in this type of situation, where we are on the fringe, I see too many times the forecast not working out one way or the other. We usually end up getting screwed with total snowfall.

I do know one thing, the more mixed precipitation we get, the more our snow totals get reduced. Sleet and freezing rain are the kiss of death to snow totals. The biggest factor to me for our snow totals is...how long do we stay in the mixed precip to rain area?

The longer we do, the less snow we will get.

I hope all this made sense...if not, sorry, It's 4am. Why am I awake? Because even at my age, I still get excited about winter weather. Now...back to sleep....maybe. lol.

 

[95Hawk]

Winter Storm Orlena?????