OpinionFour signs Trump’s weaknesses are deepening

[cigaretteman]

Four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump commands a strong majority of the Republican primary electorate, but signs point to his diminishing ability to control much beyond that. Results from the special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District; Senate passage of the supplemental defense bill and Trump’s associated self-inflicted wounds; the flock of GOP House departures; and the progress of the Jan. 6 (federal) and the business-records falsification (New York state) cases collectively paint a portrait of the near-certain nominee and his party under stress.

The New York 3rd​

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A Democrat’s convincing victory in the race to replace disgraced former congressman George Santos continues a string of defeats for Republicans in special elections, in off-year elections, in the 2022 midterms and in abortion battles. Former Democratic congressman Tom Suozzi trounced county legislator Mazi Pilip (R) 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent. When a GOP-held district goes from plus-7.6 points (Santos’s margin of victory in 2022) to minus-7.8 points, it might be time for Republicans to take their weakness at the ballot box seriously.



Suozzi deserves credit for taking on, rather than running from, “cultural issues,” a strategy some savvy Democrats, including those at Third Way, have urged. Far from changing the subject to the economy, he leaned into the immigration and abortion issues. And, lo and behold, the immigration issue blew up in Republicans’ faces. Suozzi turned the tables on Pilip by bashing her for opposing a tough, bipartisan border bill in the Senate. That should strike fear in the hearts of suburban Republicans such as Rep. Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.), who voted for the baseless impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and four other Republican members of Congress in New York districts President Biden won in 2020. In addition, the NY-3 race reminds us that abortion, a prominent issue that featured in the only debate between the candidates, remains MAGA kryptonite.

Trump’s self-inflicted wounds on Ukraine and the border​

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The impressive 70-29 Senate vote on aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan demonstrated that more than a few Republican senators will break with Trump on some issues. Even a couple of Republicans on the ballot this year (Roger Wicker of Mississippi and Kevin Cramer of North Dakota) voted against the MAGA line. If Republicans join with Democrats to force the bill to the House floor, Trump’s aura of control will suffer further. (Voting against your own party’s rule would be a rare, serious breach of loyalty.)



The military aid vote came in the wake of Trump’s outrageous invitation for Russia to attack NATO countries. Biden underscored Trump’s betrayal in powerful remarks on Tuesday. “Can you imagine, a former president of the U.S. saying that? The whole world heard it. The worst thing is he means it,” Biden said. “No other president in our history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator. … For God’s sake, it’s dumb, it’s shameful, it’s dangerous, it’s un-American.” It will be up to the Biden campaign to make sure voters understand that Trump, colloquially speaking, is a traitor, siding with a foreign dictator over our national security.


Though Trump was able to undermine the immigration compromise, he did so at the price of humiliating Republican Senate border security negotiators (e.g., Susan Collins of Maine and James Lankford of Oklahoma), damaging suburban Republican candidates such as Pilip and handing Biden a powerful talking point: Trump is perpetuating disarray at the border. Democrats will be happy to capitalize on another glaring example of the former president’s compulsion to put his own needs above the country’s.

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[cigaretteman]

Republicans flee the House​

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A cavalcade of no fewer than 21 House Republican departures shows that some party members are not eager to run with Trump and serve should he get elected. Democrats’ increasing confidence about taking back the House from the utterly dysfunctional MAGA-controlled GOP should remind us that, with the exception of 2016, Trump has been ballot-box poison, dragging down-ticket Republicans to defeat (in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023). A party projecting disarray, radicalism and incompetence is not one suited to retain “soft” Republicans and independents.

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Last and certainly not least, Trump’s ability to escape a criminal trial before the election appears to be diminishing.



The Supreme Court most likely will deny Trump’s request for a stay on the Jan. 6 trial pending resolution of his immunity claim or, if it grants the stay, will also set an “expedited schedule for briefing and oral argument,” experts such as Steve Vladeck surmise. That “could lead to a decision by sometime in May or June that clears the way for trial.” If so, Trump would face the most serious charges, going to the heart of his attack on democracy, well before Election Day.
And for all the criticism of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, he is likely on Thursday to get a firm trial date for a sound 34-count trial concerning falsification of documents to hide a sex scandal from voters. He has spelled out at least four grounds for elevating the crimes to felonies. (In its recent filing, the D.A.’s office explained: “Defendant caused his entities’ business records to be falsified to disguise his and others’ criminal conduct — which included violations of state and federal election law; the falsification of additional business records; and the mischaracterization, for tax purposes, of the true nature of the payments to [Michael] Cohen.”) Immunity and removal arguments failed in federal court. And perhaps most devastating, Bragg will have a Manhattan-only jury, about as receptive a jury pool as he might hope to get for a case scrutinizing Trump’s business shenanigans. Bragg might well prove wrong those pundits who looked askance at the district attorney’s charges — presumably comfortable with the notion that ex-presidents cannot be held accountable for crimes before they were president.
Trump is not the colossus that many in the media suggest. His iron grip on core followers does not diminish the significance of a rebellion in the ranks regarding Ukraine, his devastating blunders on that issue and the border, a parade of fed-up Republicans exiting the House and, crucially, the progress of serious felony trials. If Biden gets to face that guy, it will be the equivalent of drawing an inside straight.