Peaking too soon?
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
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I believe a 15-3 BT record by Iowa will win the championship, so I expect 3 losses along the way, most likely Maryland, Indiana and Michigan on the road. We could finish 17-1 or 16-2 if we can maintain our focus and have no injuries. As long as we don't lose to a lower echelon team or two down the stretch and lose in the BT tournament early, a few losses do not qualify as peaking too early for me.
I do not expect this team to fade, but it could happen. Fran needs to make sure Uhl, Wagner, Ellingson and Baer (and maybe Williams) get their minutes and those four need to continue to contribute or I can see their minutes diminishing, and that would take its toll on the starters.
I do not expect this team to fade, but it could happen. Fran needs to make sure Uhl, Wagner, Ellingson and Baer (and maybe Williams) get their minutes and those four need to continue to contribute or I can see their minutes diminishing, and that would take its toll on the starters.
This is a good question. Can't get that 13/14 season out of my head. I would like to think that 4 seniors will be able to keep it moving. Guess we will see.
Seeing the rest of the country play, I think they are just that good. There are a lot of highly ranked teams out there that have just as many, or more, flaws as Iowa. The big thing for Iowa, they are playing just as efficiently on both ends of the court as anyone in the country, and doing it against a difficult schedule. If they were inefficient but still winning, or doing it against the 200th ranked schedule or something, I'd worry.
The bench comment is spot on. If we can continue to get contributions from our bench, or at the very least balls to the wall hustle like Baer and Wagner have shown, I think the drop off to that second group is minimal and will allow to starters to keep it going.
Two years ago, our bench contributed very little and couldn't shoot to save their lives.
Two years ago, our bench contributed very little and couldn't shoot to save their lives.
The 2013-14 team actually had a really bad defense. They were beating people on the offensive end. Towards the end of the season, their lack of defense caught up to them. This year's team has one of the best defenses in the country.
What do you mean peak? We still miss shots, and the other team still scores. When those two cease to be true, be afraid, be very afraid!
I'm sure of one thing...after our first B1G loss there will be a half dozen threads wondering if a collapse is imminent....can hardly wait.
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anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba
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Only losers "peak too soon." The idea is to play well consistently and keep on winning. "Peaking too soon" is nothing more than an excuse. These Hawkeyes aren't looking for excuses; they're just looking for that next win. And that will come Thursday when the Hawks have some turtles for supper.
Well, why not? We've seen it before. But this team is better than that one on several levels so I don't see it happening.
Yep. They've had some moments, some really long moments in fact, of absolutely fantastic ball such as both second halves against Purdue. But in both cases, and the games against MSU, they had some stretches of pedestrian or even bad basketball. They put together 40 solid minutes, there isn't a team in the country they couldn't completely take apart and embarrass. If they stuck the first half of the ISU game together with either second half against Purdue? It would be amazing.
I also have reoccurring thoughts on that team. Hopefully no one screws a teammate's girlfriend or sister between now and March
What are the options? Try to lose a game or two? Take it easy?
Thing is, you never know when the peak is until the season is over.
I think this is a full throttle team...plays best that way. When this team slows down...the players get to thinking too much.
Lots of it depends upon injuries...keeping MG and Whitie healthy most of all... Both of them will be tough to replace.
Long pull...need to keep the subs coming in, interested, and offering a bit of rest to the starters.
And...this is a good thing...I think the starters know how good the subs are and they know they can't just go through the motions...if so, they will lose minutes. There are options on this team.
It is tough to win all your games...especially given the 3 point play where almost any team can get hot and beat another...especially at home. Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin would be examples.
I like this team...and their style of defensive play is very confusing to opponents and tends to wear the other team down. This can be put into effect whether one is "hot or cold."...
Iowa is in a great spot...that they have earned...full throttle...take advantage...no time for the weak.
Thing is, you never know when the peak is until the season is over.
I think this is a full throttle team...plays best that way. When this team slows down...the players get to thinking too much.
Lots of it depends upon injuries...keeping MG and Whitie healthy most of all... Both of them will be tough to replace.
Long pull...need to keep the subs coming in, interested, and offering a bit of rest to the starters.
And...this is a good thing...I think the starters know how good the subs are and they know they can't just go through the motions...if so, they will lose minutes. There are options on this team.
It is tough to win all your games...especially given the 3 point play where almost any team can get hot and beat another...especially at home. Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin would be examples.
I like this team...and their style of defensive play is very confusing to opponents and tends to wear the other team down. This can be put into effect whether one is "hot or cold."...
Iowa is in a great spot...that they have earned...full throttle...take advantage...no time for the weak.
Here's something to consider about what we've done so far. Looking at Kenpom's Adjusted O and D. Only two other teams compare to where we are at and all three of us are in the top 4.
Iowa O-7 D-14
Oklahoma O-8 D-13
Villanova O-14 D-9
That's it. Everyone else at the top is single digits in one and 28+ in the other, or double digits in both. Our strength of schedule is also on par with those two teams so it isn't like one is playing easier competition that the others. The other team in the Kenpom top 4 is Louisville and they have had a significantly easier schedule than the others.
Iowa O-7 D-14
Oklahoma O-8 D-13
Villanova O-14 D-9
That's it. Everyone else at the top is single digits in one and 28+ in the other, or double digits in both. Our strength of schedule is also on par with those two teams so it isn't like one is playing easier competition that the others. The other team in the Kenpom top 4 is Louisville and they have had a significantly easier schedule than the others.
They are who they are and nothing but injuries changes that. I would anticipate a few loses. That's just a matter of law of averages and a tough schedule but I don't think it will have anything to do with losing their focus, drive, energy, legs, etc.
I think you can "peak too soon" if you rely too heavily on starters or freshmen and don't have depth on the bench. You can then run yourself into tired legs in March and potentially limp to the finish.
I think this is more or less who Iowa is. They'll have some bad shooting nights at some point (and might even have one at a critical time), but I don't think they'll fold mentally and I love the depth and balance of this team. If I had to predict, I'd say Iowa finishes 15-3. I think they'll split with Indiana, split the games at Maryland and at Michigan and then drop one surprise somewhere.
I think Iowa can handle some injuries, but obviously a major injury to Utoff, Jok, Clemmons or Gessell could drastically change the season's path.
Could be, you just never know. I think we will level off a bit now tho, starting with perhaps a loss on Thursday at Maryland.
I would love to start to see another really hot streak right before the BTT.
I would love to start to see another really hot streak right before the BTT.
Not to minimize the others (Uthoff...he makes Iowa a tough game) but I think Woodie would be the biggest loss...clogger, screen setting, can make the other bigs really work to get anything...we don't have anyone, at this point, who can replace that....with as much experience and finesse...
He seems durable and pretty well rested at this point in the season. He brings lots of energy to the games this year, and hustle.
He seems durable and pretty well rested at this point in the season. He brings lots of energy to the games this year, and hustle.
I think the Iowa team is looking forward to showing Maryland and the country...that they deserve their ranking. This is a team on a mission...if Maryland jogs through parts of the game...that will not end well for them. Iowa will bring high octane...all game, and has the players to do it.
They are playing at a consistent level. If this is at their top of their game, just keep it going.
I think defense is what keeps this year's squad playing at a high level. The effort on the defensive end has been fantastic. Purdue's big men inside scared me because Fran lacks a true 5 outside of Woodbury but they were able to keep their bigs in check even when Woodbury was on the bench.
The term peak as it applies to basketball means to not play up to your potential (Augustana, Dayton, ND, 2nd half at ISU), then playing to the best of your ability (Iowa is playing very well right now) and then not being able to sustain that high level of play for the rest of the season and postseason. Hopefully the curve on Iowa's season chart looks like an exponent and not a bell curve...
Why not? Because odds are...the Hawks will lose at least a couple games in the B1G. I'll get concerned if we drop a couple in a row to PSU/Minny/NW/iLLINI or some combination there of....honestly speaking, I kind of expect a turd loss somewhere along the line. Heck...most of the teams in the top 25 have a "bad" loss on their resume.
Fran played too many guys that year and I think it was their downfall. Really never developed any cohesion because the lineups were different every 2 minutes. This year's rotation is much more solid.
Exactly, the "shooters" that year were Marble, who could shoot 3s about one out of every 3 or 4 games, Ogelsby and McCabe.
That team was extremely one dimensional.
I'd be ok with this season looking like a mesa, even. If Iowa stays at this level and the "curve" is flat to the finish Iowa will be a very tough out all of March.
I totally agree with this....seemed like the 10-11 man rotation was more about "have to get this guy his minutes" rather than being dictated by situation/role. Really/really like the 9 man rotation this year with defined roles.
Arguably the 2014 teams best game was against Ohio State on the road...the rotation was basically 9 in the second half with Basabe/Uthoff getting expanded playing time. Really thought we'd stick with that but didn't....
Just seemed like going 11 deep never allowed guys to find their roles and get into the flow of the game for that matter. The only time I think going that deep is warranted is if you're basically pressing full court for 40 minutes...if not you really do need to narrow down the rotation to manageable level.
Really do think that was one of the downfalls of that squad...
I'm not so sure peaking is even a part of the process. I do believe as the season goes along ... your opponent gets a much better idea of what you are doing (especially on offense) ... this is why most schools have a full time video coordinator & why players are required to view game film.
In Iowa's case...we do present matchup problems...especially with Uthoff's ability to hit from out as well as inside. This is also why you don't want to tell Jok to just stand outside & shoot 3's. He needs to continue to enhance his game with penetration (picking his spots).
The #1 reason why Iowa is a tough opponent.. unselfishness....when Purdue tried to double JU at the free throw line...he could have taken the shot at the Free throw line..instead he dumped it into Woody.
In Iowa's case...we do present matchup problems...especially with Uthoff's ability to hit from out as well as inside. This is also why you don't want to tell Jok to just stand outside & shoot 3's. He needs to continue to enhance his game with penetration (picking his spots).
The #1 reason why Iowa is a tough opponent.. unselfishness....when Purdue tried to double JU at the free throw line...he could have taken the shot at the Free throw line..instead he dumped it into Woody.
This team just has a lot of horsepower.
It would be one thing if Iowa got to 7 - 0 scratching and clawing out a lot of squeakers. That would be awesome enough, right? But this team is usually winning rather comfortably.
Iowa has a bona fide superstar in Uthoff, and Jok isn't real far behind. Iowa is veteran and deep as well.
NOT saying the Hawks are now invincible by any means. But they certainly didn't get to this point by accident. I'm bullish on the balance of the season.
It would be one thing if Iowa got to 7 - 0 scratching and clawing out a lot of squeakers. That would be awesome enough, right? But this team is usually winning rather comfortably.
Iowa has a bona fide superstar in Uthoff, and Jok isn't real far behind. Iowa is veteran and deep as well.
NOT saying the Hawks are now invincible by any means. But they certainly didn't get to this point by accident. I'm bullish on the balance of the season.
There will be an unexpected loss along the way somewhere. This is the BigTen. Wisconsin lost at Rutgers last year. MSU has lost 3 straight to Nebraska. We've lost to N'Western and Minnesota was our last loss at CHA. Illinois gets up for Iowa.
You just can't expect to win all the games you think you should.... some night your shots don't fall and the other teams do.
"That's basketbal"
You just can't expect to win all the games you think you should.... some night your shots don't fall and the other teams do.
"That's basketbal"
This is hardly an original thought, but there's no great team this year. There are maybe 15 that could win the NCAA title, including both Iowa schools. Voting in the polls is pretty much guesswork right now, as evidenced by what happened to the alleged top ten the past few days.
Somebody's going to get hot/lucky at the right time and win it.
Through the second week of February in 2014 Iowa's defense ranked pretty well defensively. After that opposing teams torched us from outside.
I think many are forgetting how good the 2013-14 looked before their late season collapse. Vegas ranked Iowa as a 1 seed in early February of 2014. http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/vegas-bracketology-2014-021814
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