Peaking too soon?

[hawkifann]

That 2013-2014 collapse was so bad, I don't recall it that well...have blocked it out it seems.

This team is much different...I hope.

This team is definitely more well-rounded and there's much more talented depth. I could always be wrong, but I think to have a real collapse down the stretch, it would require at least one major injury to a starter. As has been stated, Iowa will almost certainly drop a game they shouldn't somewhere and they'll probably drop a couple of their tough remaining road games, but that certainly wouldn't constitute a collapse.

Iowa is not often the team wearing the target on their back. Iowa will get everyone's best shot, especially on the road. I think they're tough enough to handle it.

 

[Mohawkeye]

I think at some point we will lose a couple of games within close proximity of each other. There just isn't a large margin for error in the Big. With these seniors, as long as we don't have injuries I think we will be okay. I don't foresee a loss of confidence or a total collapse.

 

[HerkyFan]

They arent peaking. This is who they are

I agree. Nothing has been earth shattering they just go out and play basically the same each game.

 

[artradley]

Only losers "peak too soon." The idea is to play well consistently and keep on winning. "Peaking too soon" is nothing more than an excuse. These Hawkeyes aren't looking for excuses; they're just looking for that next win. And that will come Thursday when the Hawks have some turtles for supper.

This. True "peaking" in sports is limited specifically to sports that rely on extreme conditioning; such as swimming, running, or weightlifting. You can only keep your body at a specific performance-related level for short periods of time, so you train in order to "peak" at the right time.

Basketball and football simply require you to play well. There's no reason you can't play well for the entire B1G season. If a team appears to have "peaked" in basketball, it suggests something more along the lines of they got really hot -- especially shooting the ball -- for a few games, then came back down to earth.

 

[ryno17]

Iowa hasn't even begun to peak. Iowa's going to peak so hard all of the NCAA will feel it!

 

[hawkifann]

This. True "peaking" in sports is limited specifically to sports that rely on extreme conditioning; such as swimming, running, or weightlifting. You can only keep your body at a specific performance-related level for short periods of time, so you train in order to "peak" at the right time.

Basketball and football simply require you to play well. There's no reason you can't play well for the entire B1G season. If a team appears to have "peaked" in basketball, it suggests something more along the lines of they got really hot -- especially shooting the ball -- for a few games, then came back down to earth.

This is why I made the comment about teams with short benches being really the only teams capable of "peaking" early. Those teams can play really well, get up near peak performance and then with lack of a bench, that team could fatigue and wear down in March, especially as tournaments emphasize the short bench and lack of rest.

 

[hawkeyemike23]

The 2013-14 team had a lot of players which were flawed in some way or another and made it extremely hard to find a consistent rotation. This team is full of much more well rounded guys. Marble was about the only consistent two way player on that team. Gesell's shot disappeared at the end of the year, Uthoff, Clemmens, Jok and Woodbury were nowhere close to how good they are now. McCabe struggled, Basabe was pretty solid, but it was hard to play him with White without spacing issues, Olesani was often out of position defensively, Oglesby was reluctant to shoot.

This year has a lot of solid defenders and a lot of guys who can shoot and space the floor, much, much more well rounded team.

 

[hansenhawk]

Thinking more about this, I think it's less about "peaking" and more about teams being able to figure out how to defend us.

Right now, no body can. Purdue tried the MSU thug theory, which didn't work.

We will see if Maryland can come up with a defensive strategy on how to slow us down. It will be interesting.

If they do, other teams (albeit much less talented) will take note and try to do something similar.

 

[BBHawk]

Is this Iowa team peaking too soon or are they just this good and finally put it all together?

Given the early schedule, they had to get it going or risk getting buried. This is a senior-laden team. They were ready.

 

[hawkeyemike23]

Thinking more about this, I think it's less about "peaking" and more about teams being able to figure out how to defend us.

Right now, no body can. Purdue tried the MSU thug theory, which didn't work.

We will see if Maryland can come up with a defensive strategy on how to slow us down. It will be interesting.

If they do, other teams (albeit much less talented) will take note and try to do something similar.

I'm really looking forward to this, I think we may get some really weird cross matches when we have the ball, will be interesting to see how Fran has us attack those.

 

[artradley]

Thinking more about this, I think it's less about "peaking" and more about teams being able to figure out how to defend us.

Right now, no body can. Purdue tried the MSU thug theory, which didn't work.

We will see if Maryland can come up with a defensive strategy on how to slow us down. It will be interesting.

If they do, other teams (albeit much less talented) will take note and try to do something similar.

And that's why I feel shooting the ball is a much bigger part of success that is usually appreciated; especially with the 3-point shot. It's not real, real hard to get open looks from 3-point range. You then also need to be able to consistently hit the 15-footer when you chance upon it.

The only defense that will stop good shooting is pressure on the ball to create turnovers and wind down the shot clock.

 

[artradley]

This is why I made the comment about teams with short benches being really the only teams capable of "peaking" early. Those teams can play really well, get up near peak performance and then with lack of a bench, that team could fatigue and wear down in March, especially as tournaments emphasize the short bench and lack of rest.

Good point.

 

[revkev73]

The shorter shot clock and Iowa's 1-2-2 full court trap defense have made it more difficult for the opponents to "settle in" for some good looks from 3...by the time they get it up in range...time has ticked off...and urgency and sloppiness set it. The rules changes and pace of play that Iowa tries to produce...help a lot this year. Iowa has the players to produce this "confusion" this year, more than last year, more than an awful long time.

And...Uthoff, Baer, etc. are tough to shoot over from three at leisure...it is most often work and tenuous. With a team of length, quickness, and some shot blocking ability...the other team is always on edge and hesitates...even if a shot isn't blocked.

These things, along with a deeper and talented team...make Iowa a tough match, especially if the opponent doesn't go full cylinder all game long.

And now...the team is tough...like Fran has always been

 

[JerryDennard]

GOOD POINT IOWA SHOULD DELIBERATELY LOSE THE NEXT FEW GAMES SO WE CAN PEAK AT THE RIGHT TIME

 

[Dukeman]

This team has a legitimate chance at the National Title.

 

[hansenhawk]

That's a good point above, does anyone think the shorter shot clock has been a small reason we have been more successful this season?

Just an interesting thought to ponder. I can't see how it would have THAT much effect on much?

 

[paladinhawk]

Thinking more about this, I think it's less about "peaking" and more about teams being able to figure out how to defend us.

...

We will see if Maryland can come up with a defensive strategy on how to slow us down. It will be interesting.

That's what makes this team extraordinary IMO. If a team tries to defend the 3 point shooters the Hawks can score inside. Purdue kept IA to something like 35% inside the arc, but they were too slow to defend the outside shots. The Hawks strong defense will keep them in games where the shooting is off.

 

[RocknRollface]

That 2013-2014 collapse was so bad, I don't recall it that well...have blocked it out it seems.

This team is much different...I hope.

That team was extremely reliant on transition. They rebounded and ran. There were two power forwards and a center on the floor at the same time, none of whom could shoot from more than a few feet away.

Eventually opposing coaches figured out they couldn't operate effectively in the half court and adjusted.

This team has no resemblance to that. Theres 4 to 5 guys that can shoot 3s on the court at any time. The spacing and movement are excellent and the defense is working.

They might have a game where 3s aren't falling but it will just be a one game thing and even that is unlikely because there as so many shooters on the court.

 

[RocknRollface]

Thinking more about this, I think it's less about "peaking" and more about teams being able to figure out how to defend us.

Right now, no body can. Purdue tried the MSU thug theory, which didn't work.

We will see if Maryland can come up with a defensive strategy on how to slow us down. It will be interesting.

If they do, other teams (albeit much less talented) will take note and try to do something similar.

Out side of a team like West Virgina that just full court presses all game long theres only so much you can do different defensively.

When a team can space you out with 4/5 shooters on the court and move the ball extremely well and has a legit dominant matchup issue like Uthoff, there's no secret strategy to deal with it.

You can play zone or man and either one will eventually leave a shooter open.

To beat Iowa you will have to keep up with them scoring and be solid on D and or Iowa just has to be off.

Maryland and Indiana are the two left in conference that can give Iowa problems because they can also score the ball at a high level and play good D.

If Maryland can get Woodbury in foul trouble their odds of beating Iowa go up significantly.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

Good analyses R and R F, but I think Michigan could also get us at their place with their A game. I appreciated the way they didn't just fold playing us when it looked like we were about to put them away on several occasions. Hawk's are better but we need to keep playing every possession with a purpose. I think we do but won't be easy. This team swept 2 of the B1G' s best. I originally thought we would go 12-6 in the B1G, I will be very disappointed at this juncture were my prediction to come true, but as of now it appears it's all House Money.

 

[revkev73]

Some good comments about Iowa "now" as opposed to 2013-2014, etc. Concur.

Some positive changes with this stream roller...IMHO

Iowa, with some exceptions, seems to come out on fire at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the second half. Michigan called for their first time out at about the 90 second mark of the game! Izzo also...not sure which or perhaps both games, early TO. Purdue, IIRC, ran out of timeouts because of the energy Iowa brought to the beginning of the second half at their place.

In the past these had served to be kind of dead zones for Iowa.

Fran seems to be making some very astute coaching changes at the half. This seems to be a big improvement. Given his experience, I doubt that White Jesus had a come to The Real Jesus event in his coaching life...more likely...he has more talent and more experience and more versatile players to tinker with....and trusts them. Baer, Uhl, bring it, with confidence and energy...also unafraid to shoot from anywhere.

Iowa also has much greater versatility on the defensive side. Better players to run the 1-2-2 when desired. Better able to cover the outside shooters...with Woodie prowling the lane and being in the right places defensively most of the time...frustrating and bogging down their bigs.

And...nothing new here...a much, much better shooting team. Uthoff, Jok, Uhl, Baer, now Ellingson can shoot and are fearless. Iowa is kind of an engima team...where the two starting guards just don't excell at shooting, from the field or the FT line. They bring other aspects, and there are anomalies...but it isn't their strength. Opposing coaches are learning this, it seems, and MG and Sapp will probably get more looks...just because coaches can't allow Jok and Uthoff especially to have free range shooting. Someone has to help out...let's see if MG and Sapp can beat us by shooting from the field!

Iowa is a decent rebounding team...but their style of play on both ends, kind of Helter Skelter...isn't conducive to rebounding positioning in general. I think Iowa has improved here as well.

I am not sure about the stats...but Iowa is becoming a bit of shot blocking team. Uthoff, Jok, Baer...and others have quick hands and play smart. There is nothing more intimidating or humiliating than having your shot blocked, especially by someone who doesn't seem able to do it to you...Iowa can and has done this on many occasions. Other teams become hesitant...

MG and Sapp at the FT line, in crunch time, continues to be an issue, of course. When they get to the line...it is kind of like golfing...it becomes mental...it is just you and the ball...and your mind... Hopefully this won't inflict too much pain. Both of them look at the rim, while waiting to get the ball for a FT like it is a "gallows" waiting to inflict pain and death.

Great season...so far...I am hopeful that Iowa can roll into Maryland...and leave happy!

 

[FranklinHawk]

That team was extremely reliant on transition. They rebounded and ran. There were two power forwards and a center on the floor at the same time, none of whom could shoot from more than a few feet away.

Eventually opposing coaches figured out they couldn't operate effectively in the half court and adjusted.

This is spot on in my opinion. That team had no half court offense and once teams figured out they could largely forget about sending multiple guys after offensive rebounds and just haul ### back and play defense, the Hawks had no answer.

 

[hawkeyemike23]

Some good comments about Iowa "now" as opposed to 2013-2014, etc. Concur.

I am not sure about the stats...but Iowa is becoming a bit of shot blocking team. Uthoff, Jok, Baer...and others have quick hands and play smart. There is nothing more intimidating or humiliating than having your shot blocked, especially by someone who doesn't seem able to do it to you...Iowa can and has done this on many occasions. Other teams become hesitant...

MG and Sapp at the FT line, in crunch time, continues to be an issue, of course. When they get to the line...it is kind of like golfing...it becomes mental...it is just you and the ball...and your mind... Hopefully this won't inflict too much pain. Both of them look at the rim, while waiting to get the ball for a FT like it is a "gallows" waiting to inflict pain and death.

Great season...so far...I am hopeful that Iowa can roll into Maryland...and leave happy!

6th in the nation in block percentage at 15.4%, also 10th in the nation at not getting blocked when we're on offense at 6.2%, hard to block 6'9" jump shooters.

 

[mazda1]

Once we started to get meaningful contributions from the bench we were ready to compete at a high level because we could put a full team of experienced guys on the court who knew each other well and have a TON of starts.

The front loaded schedule may have worked in our favor as we had starters who had seen how the intensity of league ramps up and had played in these enviornments together.

As some of the talent loaded teams get more experience functioning as a unit they will become more difficult match ups. I don't know if they will be able to beat us given the edge we've established.

 

[backinblack23]

I don't think the team has peaked, I don't think they've played a really complete game yet besides maybe the MSU game at carver. Iowa does have some flaws but they are flaws we can control. One flaw is if Woodbury gets in foul trouble our defense drops off dramatically. The other flaw I see is our bench is young and if they stop producing we are very beatable, one way to combat that is like someone else said play with energy the entire time no matter if your shots are falling or not.

The things Iowa has going for them is we are a very balanced team on offense and we have multiple guys that can go off any night in Utoff, Jok, Gessel, and even Clemmons have all been in double figures at times. Woodbury is playing great ball right now and is averaging right around a double-double. We have 4-5 guys that are consistent 3pt. threats, something we haven't had in the years past. We can also play just about any style we want, we can run, we can slow it down, we are very efficient in whatever we want to do. I think 15-3 is a very attainable goal in the B1G conference and that should be good for atleast a share of the title.

 

[HawkLogic]

The only danger I see is "freshman" hitting a wall. Our bench hasn't had to play thru a season this long with the exception of Uhl. Often mental fatigue gets younger kids at the end of the year.

I don't put a lot of stock in the Freshman wall theory.
How can Kentucky and Duke win National titles with Freshman stars if there is Freshman wall ? Besides, Wagner is only true freshman and he doesn't play a lot of minutes, I doubt there is an Fatigue issue there.

Shooters go into slumps....we know Gesell has had extended slumps before shooting the ball...McCabe was classic a couple years ago...Ogelsby had an entire season of poor shooting. Jok has really turned it on shooting wise...if he cools, that is a problem. Uhl seems to be unsustainable shooting percentage...Baer is shooting well now, but doesn't have long track record of making 3balls. If Iowa sustains this team 3ball shooting, they will will a lot of games.

 

[revkev73]

Interesting to see which teams are the top 10 in the country...at avoiding getting their shots blocked.

I would guess they are mostly teams that like to shoot the three...? Iowa sure seems to have a lot of shots blocked near the basket?

Uhl, Uthoff, Baer are all tough to block from long range...

The "fear" that our opponents have of the shotblockers...is a very nice card to have...

 

[hawkeyemike23]

Interesting to see which teams are the top 10 in the country...at avoiding getting their shots blocked.

I would guess they are mostly teams that like to shoot the three...? Iowa sure seems to have a lot of shots blocked near the basket?

Uhl, Uthoff, Baer are all tough to block from long range...

The "fear" that our opponents have of the shotblockers...is a very nice card to have...

New Mexico St, Weber St, Ohio St, Virginia, Southern Illinois, Ball St, Pepperdine, Miami (Fl), Ga Tech. Not really seeing much of a trend among these teams, New Mexico St., Ga Tech and Virginia are all ranked 300+ in 3 point attempt percentage.

 

[revkev73]

Thanks...interesting...

Iowa's ability to block shots and their ability to avoid getting blocked...the aggregate of those two, would be very high I would guess.

Something is working right so far!

 

[PhantomFlyer]

This is why I made the comment about teams with short benches being really the only teams capable of "peaking" early. Those teams can play really well, get up near peak performance and then with lack of a bench, that team could fatigue and wear down in March, especially as tournaments emphasize the short bench and lack of rest.

That's conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom is often wrong. I'd love to hear the names of good teams that collapsed because of a short bench, or see the stats bearing this hypothesis out. Wis played with a short bench last year and they didn't wilt down the stretch. We are talking about 18-22 year old kids playing in their prime physical condition. NBA guys avg more minutes, play more games, and have much more travel than college guys, even if those schools have a short bench. I don't buy the wearing down in Mar due to fatigue argument. Now, losing good starters to injury can have an impact, and playing a tougher conference schedule could result in a decrease in performance from the non-conference schedule to the conference schedule, but that's not a decrease due to fatigue.

Hey, I'm willing to change my opinion on the issue but I want to see some evidence to back up the wear down hypothesis.

 

[soybean]

Just so none of the ceiling in Assembly Hall falls down and I think we'll be OK.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Is this Iowa team peaking too soon or are they just this good and finally put it all together?

3 weeks ago today I asked this question. Most responses were that Iowa has not peaked and they are just that good of a team. Since that time Iowa has gone 4-3 and have played some really bad basketball at times.

I wanted to bump this thread and ask the question again. Did Iowa peak too soon or can they turn it around over the next 3 weeks?

 

[hawkifann]

3 weeks ago today I asked this question. Most responses were that Iowa has not peaked and they are just that good of a team. Since that time Iowa has gone 4-3 and have played some really bad basketball at times.

I wanted to bump this thread and ask the question again. Did Iowa peak too soon or can they turn it around over the next 3 weeks?

Time will tell, obviously, but this has been the story of college hoops this year. I posted the Villanova run in January where they had some ugly games before righting the ship. Kentucky, Duke and MSU were all highly ranked in the first half of the season then went into big slumps. Duke and UK wound up outside the top 25 and MSU fell a good ways, but all three seem to have recovered. There are other teams as well. It happens every year, but this year is particularly wide-open in college basketball.

Iowa's week off comes at a really good time, IMHO. They get to rest some tired legs and regroup and adjust to the adjustments the league has made to them. They can get back to playing some good ball. They can still win the B1G outright, they just don't control their own destiny at this point. I still expect them to be a tough out in the B1G tourney and they still have a path to a really good seed in the NCAA tourney. It's all sitll laid out in front of htem, they just have to take it.

 

[hexumhawk]

This is college basketball folks. Teams go through ebbs and flows through a season. We were hot before and have cooled off; need to regroup and get hot again.

Look at Wisconsin. They were left for dead 3 weeks ago and looked totally out of sync. Now they are on a 7 game winning streak.

There is no team out there this year that is immune to a few bad games in a row; not even in the top 10.

 

[PhantomFlyer]

Time will tell, obviously, but this has been the story of college hoops this year. I posted the Villanova run in January where they had some ugly games before righting the ship. Kentucky, Duke and MSU were all highly ranked in the first half of the season then went into big slumps. Duke and UK wound up outside the top 25 and MSU fell a good ways, but all three seem to have recovered. There are other teams as well. It happens every year, but this year is particularly wide-open in college basketball.

Iowa's week off comes at a really good time, IMHO. They get to rest some tired legs and regroup and adjust to the adjustments the league has made to them. They can get back to playing some good ball. They can still win the B1G outright, they just don't control their own destiny at this point. I still expect them to be a tough out in the B1G tourney and they still have a path to a really good seed in the NCAA tourney. It's all sitll laid out in front of htem, they just have to take it.

Good post. We should have a much better feel for this team coming down the stretch after a week off, a chance to get some rest. The effort look like it was there against PSU, it just look like they were a step slow on both ends of the floor, causing guys to be out of position and then you have guys scrambling. When you see guys like Uthoff and Jok missing FT's, especially some barely hitting the front of the rim, you have some tired legs.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Bump.

Iowa is running out of time to 'turn it around.' A week off didn't fix the shooting woes or the lack of rebounding or leaving guys wide open to knock down 3s or the general lack of toughness on this squad.

I think we definitely have answered the question of 'Did Iowa peak too soon?' Now the question is, 'Can Fran right the ship come tourney time?'