A perfect storm of considerations may get Fran thinking it’s time to move on:
- If he’s honest, he has to see the relationship between his family and Iowa fan base has cooled considerably (if it ever was that warm to begin with.)
- His coaching at Iowa has plateaued. He picked up the pieces from two disastrous hires and restored the program to respectability. But middle of the conference finish seems to be his teams’ ceiling at Iowa. Selection to the (expanded) NCAA tournament is never a given; advancement beyond the first round unlikely.
- He’s unable to recruit and to coach physical and mental toughness at this level to compete day in and day out in the B1G. His teams are soft.
- Four programs will be joining the B1G next season, including traditional powers UCLA and USC. Another newcomer, Oregon, just dismantled No. 1 seed Arizona in the final PAC-12 championship. Wins are going to be harder to come by.
- In only three years at cross-state rival Iowa State, TJ Otzelberger has eclipsed Fran in terms of building athletic teams and W-L record. There is an excitement in Ames that is missing with MBB in Iowa City.
- The success of the Iowa WBB program is proof it is possible to fill Carver Hawkeye — as bad as it is — with passionate screaming supporters. Why can’t Fran’s teams do that? Certainly he has to notice and wonder.
- How does Fran like working with a new AD? What input will she have now that the season is over?
- His second oldest son, Patrick, does not appear to have his head or his heart in playing basketball at this level. Certainly Fran has to see and hear the criticism of PMac’s play and the minutes he gets compared to other, perceivably better players. Would Patrick be more comfortable elsewhere? Or not playing?
- Youngest son Jack won’t play at Iowa, seeing the kind of criticisms leveled at his brothers. There’s also that legal matter that may make it difficult to stick around.
- Fran himself doesn’t seem to be having much fun. His mood and demeanor during interviews and post-game news conferences seem downright dour at times.
He comes across as a coach who could use a break and a fresh start in a new environment, for himself and for his family.