Plus/Minus Data from five MBB games - the impact of Owen Freeman

[Andrew Houk]

When I have time, I like to watch Iowa MBB games with an Excel spreadsheet open and track each possession to see how we do when certain players are in the game, when we try zone vs. man, when our offense is in transition vs. the half court. I'll try to write some posts and share my findings with you as the season goes along. Today, I will show you data regarding our main rotation players and how our team performs when they are on the floor. My data is from the Creighton, Arkansas State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall and North Florida games, roughly 355 possessions altogether (I often don't track possessions at the very end of the game when the scrubs are in or when everyone is going all out for steals/fouling).

Some definitions first. OPP = Points per possession that we score when a player is in the game. DPP = Points per possession that we allow when a player is in the game. O Diff = How many more points do we score (per possession) when a player is in the game vs when that player is out of the game (positive is good). D Diff = How many more points do we allow when a player is in the game vs when the player is out of the game (negative is good).

Total OPP = 1.17, DPP = 1.08
Bowen OPP = 1.19, DPP = 1.16, O Diff = 0.03, D Diff = 0.18
Perkins OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = -0.02
Payton Sandfort OPP = 1.16, DPP = 1.11, O Diff = -0.03, D Diff = 0.09
Pat McCaffery OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.08, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = 0.02
Krikke OPP = 1.21, DPP = 1.09, O Diff = 0.17, D Diff = 0.07
Dix OPP = 1.18, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.01, D Diff = -0.02
Pryce Sandfort OPP = 1.07, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.14, D Diff = -0.05
Freeman OPP = 1.16, DPP = 0.91, O Diff = -0.02, D Diff = -0.28
Harding OPP = 1.10, DPP = 1.12, O Diff = -0.10, D Diff = 0.06
Dembele OPP = 1.02, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.23, D Diff = -0.06

I went ahead and put my main point in bold. We allow a whopping 0.28 fewer points per possession when Owen Freeman is in the game. For a frame of reference, a defensive improvement of 0.28 DPP would result in 21 fewer points allowed over a 75 possession game! The offense stays more or less the same when Freeman is in but the defense seems to improve dramatically. This passes the eye test, Freeman is by far our best shot blocker and also gets a surprisingly high number of steals. He is quick for a guy his size.

Naturally, there are caveats to my analysis. My samples size still isn't huge. I don't have a good way to control for the specific lineups that our opponents have out there (i.e. maybe our backups are playing against their backups etc.) If we tend to use certain combinations of players together it can be hard to disentangle the impact of individual players. For example, you might also notice that the defense appears to be way worse when Bowen is in the game. I think that is an artifact of Bowen and Freeman having only 8 total possessions together across my five game sample (we have allowed only 4 points in those 8 possessions). So it's not so much the presence of Bowen as much as it is the absence of Freeman, IMO, that makes Bowen's D Diff look bad.

Freeman is currently playing slightly less than 15 minutes per game. That needs to increase. All three of our starting front court players average 24 mpg or higher. Let's chip a couple minutes each from Ben, Pat and Payton and get Freeman 20+ minutes per game. In case folks are wondering if playing Krikke and Freeman simultaneously will cause problems, I should point out that they have about 60 possessions together. So far, the Freeman/Krikke combination is scoring 1.31 points per possession while only allowing 0.89 points per possession over those 60 possessions.

This seems like the quickest fix for our (very) leaky defense.

 

[Andrew Houk]

I meant to add one final thought. We typically keep our entire starting five in the game coming out of the first media timeout. I'd like to see Fran get Freeman into the game during that timeout. Just take out whichever one of our front court players is doing the worst, has an early foul etc. Get Freeman in the game. Unless we are in the midst of a huge run or something.

 

[sm_hawkeye]

Against Purdue it makes zero sense to not start him. Fran is reluctant to make changes like that it seems. But with either his son or Sandfort need sub in from bench when Eddie comes off the floor.

 

[hawkjt]

Very impressive analysis...thanks.

As for PU...we need to double him a lot and pray that they miss some jumpsuits.
But not sure that we want Owen isolated on Edey...foul trouble likely.

 

[KcTo]

Very impressive analysis...thanks.

As for PU...we need to double him a lot and pray that they miss some jumpsuits.
But not sure that we want Owen isolated on Edey...foul trouble likely.

Who cares if Freeman fouls out?
he plays <20m a game, use all of his fouls defending Eddy.
please play him more v PU

 

[Bulldogs1974]

freshman opp is obviously a bit skewed early in the season.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Great analysis, it tracks with what we are all seeing. It also shows Dix as a net gain on defense, which I believe.

 

[ObeseMuffins]

I wanna see this line up: Harding, Perk, Peyton, Dembele, Freeman

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Great analysis, and I agree with your suggestion to sub Freeman early and get him more minutes. My preference would be Owen taking about 5 min of Patrick's minutes most games.

 

[HawkLogic]

Great analysis, it tracks with what we are all seeing. It also shows Dix as a net gain on defense, which I believe.

Dix, Perkins, Freeman look like better defenders than alternatives.

Getting Freeman on the court means you get either Krikke,PMAC, or Sandy off the court. I would say
PMAC and Krikke are the two worst defenders and Krikee is especially bad defending the post. Sandy is not a good defender, but he does rebound betterthan Krikke or PMAC.

I am not seeing Bowen as a bad defender. Also, since Bowen has a 5.2 Assist to TO ratio, I guess he is a CMAC replacement.

 

[TheGuy9]

When I have time, I like to watch Iowa MBB games with an Excel spreadsheet open and track each possession to see how we do when certain players are in the game, when we try zone vs. man, when our offense is in transition vs. the half court. I'll try to write some posts and share my findings with you as the season goes along. Today, I will show you data regarding our main rotation players and how our team performs when they are on the floor. My data is from the Creighton, Arkansas State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall and North Florida games, roughly 355 possessions altogether (I often don't track possessions at the very end of the game when the scrubs are in or when everyone is going all out for steals/fouling).

Some definitions first. OPP = Points per possession that we score when a player is in the game. DPP = Points per possession that we allow when a player is in the game. O Diff = How many more points do we score (per possession) when a player is in the game vs when that player is out of the game (positive is good). D Diff = How many more points do we allow when a player is in the game vs when the player is out of the game (negative is good).

Total OPP = 1.17, DPP = 1.08
Bowen OPP = 1.19, DPP = 1.16, O Diff = 0.03, D Diff = 0.18
Perkins OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = -0.02
Payton Sandfort OPP = 1.16, DPP = 1.11, O Diff = -0.03, D Diff = 0.09
Pat McCaffery OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.08, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = 0.02
Krikke OPP = 1.21, DPP = 1.09, O Diff = 0.17, D Diff = 0.07
Dix OPP = 1.18, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.01, D Diff = -0.02
Pryce Sandfort OPP = 1.07, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.14, D Diff = -0.05
Freeman OPP = 1.16, DPP = 0.91, O Diff = -0.02, D Diff = -0.28
Harding OPP = 1.10, DPP = 1.12, O Diff = -0.10, D Diff = 0.06
Dembele OPP = 1.02, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.23, D Diff = -0.06

I went ahead and put my main point in bold. We allow a whopping 0.28 fewer points per possession when Owen Freeman is in the game. For a frame of reference, a defensive improvement of 0.28 DPP would result in 21 fewer points allowed over a 75 possession game! The offense stays more or less the same when Freeman is in but the defense seems to improve dramatically. This passes the eye test, Freeman is by far our best shot blocker and also gets a surprisingly high number of steals. He is quick for a guy his size.

Naturally, there are caveats to my analysis. My samples size still isn't huge. I don't have a good way to control for the specific lineups that our opponents have out there (i.e. maybe our backups are playing against their backups etc.) If we tend to use certain combinations of players together it can be hard to disentangle the impact of individual players. For example, you might also notice that the defense appears to be way worse when Bowen is in the game. I think that is an artifact of Bowen and Freeman having only 8 total possessions together across my five game sample (we have allowed only 4 points in those 8 possessions). So it's not so much the presence of Bowen as much as it is the absence of Freeman, IMO, that makes Bowen's D Diff look bad.

Freeman is currently playing slightly less than 15 minutes per game. That needs to increase. All three of our starting front court players average 24 mpg or higher. Let's chip a couple minutes each from Ben, Pat and Payton and get Freeman 20+ minutes per game. In case folks are wondering if playing Krikke and Freeman simultaneously will cause problems, I should point out that they have about 60 possessions together. So far, the Freeman/Krikke combination is scoring 1.31 points per possession while only allowing 0.89 points per possession over those 60 possessions.

This seems like the quickest fix for our (very) leaky defense.

I've tried to get my head around these types of statistics for the longest time and have finally come to the conclusion that they are almost meaningless. They do not take into consideration who an individual is playing against and who else is on the court. Without that information, you have at most 50% of the equation. It's the same thing with most of the new baseball stats. If I come to the plate with runners in scoring position against pitchers who have an ERA of 2.6 combined and get an RBI 30% of the time, am I really less clutch than a player who gets an RBI 40% of the time but does so against pitchers with a combined ERA of 4.0? I would venture to say I may actually be a better, more clutch hitter. Yet the statistic doesn't take this into consideration.

 

[MAXIMUSHAWKEYE]

When I have time, I like to watch Iowa MBB games with an Excel spreadsheet open and track each possession to see how we do when certain players are in the game, when we try zone vs. man, when our offense is in transition vs. the half court. I'll try to write some posts and share my findings with you as the season goes along. Today, I will show you data regarding our main rotation players and how our team performs when they are on the floor. My data is from the Creighton, Arkansas State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall and North Florida games, roughly 355 possessions altogether (I often don't track possessions at the very end of the game when the scrubs are in or when everyone is going all out for steals/fouling).

Some definitions first. OPP = Points per possession that we score when a player is in the game. DPP = Points per possession that we allow when a player is in the game. O Diff = How many more points do we score (per possession) when a player is in the game vs when that player is out of the game (positive is good). D Diff = How many more points do we allow when a player is in the game vs when the player is out of the game (negative is good).

Total OPP = 1.17, DPP = 1.08
Bowen OPP = 1.19, DPP = 1.16, O Diff = 0.03, D Diff = 0.18
Perkins OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = -0.02
Payton Sandfort OPP = 1.16, DPP = 1.11, O Diff = -0.03, D Diff = 0.09
Pat McCaffery OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.08, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = 0.02
Krikke OPP = 1.21, DPP = 1.09, O Diff = 0.17, D Diff = 0.07
Dix OPP = 1.18, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.01, D Diff = -0.02
Pryce Sandfort OPP = 1.07, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.14, D Diff = -0.05
Freeman OPP = 1.16, DPP = 0.91, O Diff = -0.02, D Diff = -0.28
Harding OPP = 1.10, DPP = 1.12, O Diff = -0.10, D Diff = 0.06
Dembele OPP = 1.02, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.23, D Diff = -0.06

I went ahead and put my main point in bold. We allow a whopping 0.28 fewer points per possession when Owen Freeman is in the game. For a frame of reference, a defensive improvement of 0.28 DPP would result in 21 fewer points allowed over a 75 possession game! The offense stays more or less the same when Freeman is in but the defense seems to improve dramatically. This passes the eye test, Freeman is by far our best shot blocker and also gets a surprisingly high number of steals. He is quick for a guy his size.

Naturally, there are caveats to my analysis. My samples size still isn't huge. I don't have a good way to control for the specific lineups that our opponents have out there (i.e. maybe our backups are playing against their backups etc.) If we tend to use certain combinations of players together it can be hard to disentangle the impact of individual players. For example, you might also notice that the defense appears to be way worse when Bowen is in the game. I think that is an artifact of Bowen and Freeman having only 8 total possessions together across my five game sample (we have allowed only 4 points in those 8 possessions). So it's not so much the presence of Bowen as much as it is the absence of Freeman, IMO, that makes Bowen's D Diff look bad.

Freeman is currently playing slightly less than 15 minutes per game. That needs to increase. All three of our starting front court players average 24 mpg or higher. Let's chip a couple minutes each from Ben, Pat and Payton and get Freeman 20+ minutes per game. In case folks are wondering if playing Krikke and Freeman simultaneously will cause problems, I should point out that they have about 60 possessions together. So far, the Freeman/Krikke combination is scoring 1.31 points per possession while only allowing 0.89 points per possession over those 60 possessions.

This seems like the quickest fix for our (very) leaky defense.

Marge to Fran. Must get Patrick his 20+ minutes per game.

 

[HawkRose]

To me this just point to a problem with our roster distribution. We have way too many 3-4s, not enough 2s. I can't see benching Krikke, plus he is probably better suited to the 4. That leaves us down to pulling PMAC or Sandfort, unless you pull bowen and put Perk at the 1.

It's a tough dilemma. The starting lineup as is I think is our worst defensive lineup so I agree a change needs to be made.

 

[szohn]

Dix and the 4 freshman could easily be favored over the starters.
Bowen or PMac out and Freeman in would make us a better team.

 

[EagleHawk]

I have noticed that the last (couple?) game that Fran went away from the line change and has subbed a couple of guys early and then the rest later. Getting more of a mix of starters and subs in the game.

 

[Ronman]

Lineups should depend on a couple of factors. The opponent is obviously the most prevalent one. Game time and situation is another. There are a number of elements that determine putting together the ideal lineup.
I am looking forward to see how Freeman, who is rapidly becoming my favorite player, will be able to handle Edey, who is an anomaly in college basketball. I hope he can slow him down without having to foul him, but Painter's no fool. I'm sure with the Mackey crowd and the home cooking they normally get from the refs, Owen is going to have to be extremely careful if he is going to be able to stay on the floor. There are other tough centers in the league, but no other Edeys. It will be a good eye opener for Owen and the team.

 

[ObeseMuffins]

Krikke and Freeman together can work. Look at the MN Timberwolves. Unfortunately, Krikke is so vulnerable at the four. Freeman can immensely help by rim protecting and rebounding. With those two dudes we need quicker rotations and that’s not Pmac.

 

[IllQChawk]

Dix, Perkins, Freeman look like better defenders than alternatives.

Getting Freeman on the court means you get either Krikke,PMAC, or Sandy off the court. I would say
PMAC and Krikke are the two worst defenders and Krikee is especially bad defending the post. Sandy is not a good defender, but he does rebound betterthan Krikke or PMAC.

I am not seeing Bowen as a bad defender. Also, since Bowen has a 5.2 Assist to TO ratio, I guess he is a CMAC replacement.

I think that Desonte is much better then last year and playing Brock only makes Iowa a better team then last year. The 2 of them have pretty good stats between them so far this year. There may not be a team in the country that has 2 players with a combined assist totals of 45 assists to 12 turnovers.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Lineups should depend on a couple of factors. The opponent is obviously the most prevalent one. Game time and situation is another. There are a number of elements that determine putting together the ideal lineup.
I am looking forward to see how Freeman, who is rapidly becoming my favorite player, will be able to handle Edey, who is an anomaly in college basketball. I hope he can slow him down without having to foul him, but Painter's no fool. I'm sure with the Mackey crowd and the home cooking they normally get from the refs, Owen is going to have to be extremely careful if he is going to be able to stay on the floor. There are other tough centers in the league, but no other Edeys. It will be a good eye opener for Owen and the team.

I love what I see in Freeman, but I have watched a lot of game at Mackey. Don't be surprised if Owen gets two fouls in a couple of minutes. Owen matches up very well against the rest of the league, but Edey is a monster.

 

[hawkjt]

Bowen is coming on strong on both ends.
He is much improved.
Brock is solid ...he will contribute.
Our best defenders on ball are Dix, Bowen, perk ..with Brock next.

 

[hawkirugged17]

I love what I see in Freeman, but I have watched a lot of game at Mackey. Don't be surprised if Owen gets two fouls in a couple of minutes. Owen matches up very well against the rest of the league, but Edey is a monster.

Edey drew 15 fouls vs Northwestern last night. Their top 2 posts fouled out. Their 3rd stringer came in and NW survived at home.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Marge to Fran. Must get Patrick his 20+ minutes per game.

Patrick is playing really well right now. He deserves 20-25 minutes a game.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Patrick is playing really well right now. He deserves 20-25 minutes a game.

Patrick has made some big shots, but if you keep your eyes on him for extended periods, he often looks lost, especially on the defensive end. I would definitely not give him more than 20 min.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Bowen is coming on strong on both ends.
He is much improved.
Brock is solid ...he will contribute.
Our best defenders on ball are Dix, Bowen, perk ..with Brock next.

Not sure about Brock, but he hustles and has good court awareness on the defensive end.

Unfortunately, our worst 3 defenders might be the starting front line, especially Krikke and Patrick.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Patrick has made some big shots, but if you keep your eyes on him for extended periods, he often looks lost, especially on the defensive end. I would definitely not give him more than 20 min.

Watch were he’s at defensively and how little he moves his feet/helps/rebounds. Opposing coaches aren’t stupid the put Patrick on the weakside for a reason.
He is a huge net negative when you combine offense and defense compared to freeman or even Krikke/sanfort. Pmac is a 10 minutes per game player.

 

[longliveCS40]

Interesting stats and analysis. It will be very interesting to see how it changes in Big Ten play. Freeman has been fantastic but I suspect his numbers will take a bit of a hit when the caliber of big men he's facing improves in the Big Ten.

Regardless, give the kid all the minutes. This is a rebuilding year and he's going to be a huge piece of the future. Get him experience now.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Patrick has made some big shots, but if you keep your eyes on him for extended periods, he often looks lost, especially on the defensive end. I would definitely not give him more than 20 min.

That describes 3 of the 5 starters, tbh. Krikke is awful defensively and has gotten two rebounds each of the past two games, while Patrick has gotten 5. While playing 10 less minutes. Lots of justifiable past complaints about Patrick, we should acknowledge when he is playing well.

 

[Knothole Hawk]

Love Bowens offense, but his defense has been disappointing. I thought his defensive quickness would be alot better.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

That describes 3 of the 5 starters, tbh. Krikke is awful defensively and has gotten two rebounds each of the past two games, while Patrick has gotten 5. While playing 10 less minutes. Lots of justifiable past complaints about Patrick, we should acknowledge when he is playing well.

Somewhere, probably in this thread, I said that our three worst defenders are Krikke, Patrick, and Payton, especially the first two. Sandfort is a much better rebounder and we need his 3-pt shot. Krikke is a much more consistent scorer than Patrick, which probably justifies more minutes for him. I mostly want Freeman to get at least as many minutes as Patrick, and against most match ups, more.

 

[eyesofhawk]

When I have time, I like to watch Iowa MBB games with an Excel spreadsheet open and track each possession to see how we do when certain players are in the game, when we try zone vs. man, when our offense is in transition vs. the half court. I'll try to write some posts and share my findings with you as the season goes along. Today, I will show you data regarding our main rotation players and how our team performs when they are on the floor. My data is from the Creighton, Arkansas State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall and North Florida games, roughly 355 possessions altogether (I often don't track possessions at the very end of the game when the scrubs are in or when everyone is going all out for steals/fouling).

Some definitions first. OPP = Points per possession that we score when a player is in the game. DPP = Points per possession that we allow when a player is in the game. O Diff = How many more points do we score (per possession) when a player is in the game vs when that player is out of the game (positive is good). D Diff = How many more points do we allow when a player is in the game vs when the player is out of the game (negative is good).

Total OPP = 1.17, DPP = 1.08
Bowen OPP = 1.19, DPP = 1.16, O Diff = 0.03, D Diff = 0.18
Perkins OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = -0.02
Payton Sandfort OPP = 1.16, DPP = 1.11, O Diff = -0.03, D Diff = 0.09
Pat McCaffery OPP = 1.22, DPP = 1.08, O Diff = 0.15, D Diff = 0.02
Krikke OPP = 1.21, DPP = 1.09, O Diff = 0.17, D Diff = 0.07
Dix OPP = 1.18, DPP = 1.07, O Diff = 0.01, D Diff = -0.02
Pryce Sandfort OPP = 1.07, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.14, D Diff = -0.05
Freeman OPP = 1.16, DPP = 0.91, O Diff = -0.02, D Diff = -0.28
Harding OPP = 1.10, DPP = 1.12, O Diff = -0.10, D Diff = 0.06
Dembele OPP = 1.02, DPP = 1.04, O Diff = -0.23, D Diff = -0.06

I went ahead and put my main point in bold. We allow a whopping 0.28 fewer points per possession when Owen Freeman is in the game. For a frame of reference, a defensive improvement of 0.28 DPP would result in 21 fewer points allowed over a 75 possession game! The offense stays more or less the same when Freeman is in but the defense seems to improve dramatically. This passes the eye test, Freeman is by far our best shot blocker and also gets a surprisingly high number of steals. He is quick for a guy his size.

Naturally, there are caveats to my analysis. My samples size still isn't huge. I don't have a good way to control for the specific lineups that our opponents have out there (i.e. maybe our backups are playing against their backups etc.) If we tend to use certain combinations of players together it can be hard to disentangle the impact of individual players. For example, you might also notice that the defense appears to be way worse when Bowen is in the game. I think that is an artifact of Bowen and Freeman having only 8 total possessions together across my five game sample (we have allowed only 4 points in those 8 possessions). So it's not so much the presence of Bowen as much as it is the absence of Freeman, IMO, that makes Bowen's D Diff look bad.

Freeman is currently playing slightly less than 15 minutes per game. That needs to increase. All three of our starting front court players average 24 mpg or higher. Let's chip a couple minutes each from Ben, Pat and Payton and get Freeman 20+ minutes per game. In case folks are wondering if playing Krikke and Freeman simultaneously will cause problems, I should point out that they have about 60 possessions together. So far, the Freeman/Krikke combination is scoring 1.31 points per possession while only allowing 0.89 points per possession over those 60 possessions.

This seems like the quickest fix for our (very) leaky defense.

That's not how Naughty By Nature defined OPP

 

[goodbyebobby]

Patrick has made some big shots, but if you keep your eyes on him for extended periods, he often looks lost, especially on the defensive end. I would definitely not give him more than 20 min.

Often?