Possible impact of a more consistent rushing game in 2018

[ghostOfHomer777]

There are so many variables in college football that it is sometimes hard to tease out how variables are causally related to each-other. How do you tease out the different influences that they can have on one another?

For example, Nate Stanley is now more experienced for the Hawks ... so that is a factor that could and probably should contribute to him having a better season as a JR. Similarly, should the OL manage to remain adequately healthy through the season ... the personnel continuity on the OL should also reap rewards in terms of pass-protection (and run-blocking). Improvements in blocking will assuredly ease pressure from Stanley and facilitate his ability to make plays for us.

Following this line of reason, I became curious about what sort of impact an improved Iowa rushing game might have on Stanley's production. From a conceptual framework, it would stand to reason that an improved rushing game would achieve the following things for the Hawks:

• Help the Iowa O stay on schedule more, in terms of down and distance.
• Continue to open up high percentage throws on first-down (play-action) passes.
• Force defenders to cheat more, in anticipation of the run ... thereby leading to gained steps by WRs and TEs
• In general, help keep the O balanced ... thereby making the O a little harder to defend.
• Falling in line with the above points - it would make opposing Ds play more against the run when seeing 3 TE sets. This would allow for 3-TE personnel to be more "multiple" ... because the trio of Fant, Hockenson, and Beyer are just as dangerous in how they can contribute to the passing game.

The net effect is potentially to improve the overall completion percentage of the QB. What would this imply for the Hawks if Stanley were to jump up from 55.8% to around 62%?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Part of what motivated this topic is that I was checking out Ricky Stanzi's numbers ... as he developed, going from '08 to '09 and then from '09 to '10. In each case, his receiving personnel was pretty solid (and reasonably deep) ... so, as a control variable, it remained pretty consistent. Furthermore, the Iowa OL, as a whole was truly excellent in '08 and '09 ... and took a slight backward step in '10.

However, in '08, as we all presumably recall ... the O was largely able to be powered by Greene. Consequently, that gave Ricky the ability to gets his legs under him ... and mostly be a game-manager. That season, he had a respectable 59% completion percentage.

When '09 rolled around ... Hampton's ACL injury forced the Hawks to embrace a "youth movement" at RB. The running game was in massive development mode that season ... with us featuring 2 freshman RBs. Consequently, the O had to rely much more heavily upon the passing game ... and, to that end, much more of Iowa's scoring O had to flow through Ricky's arm. What resulted was the infamous "Rick Six" ... and a marked downturn in Ricky's completion percentage (around 56%).

However, entering 2010, Adam Robinson was more proven ... and Iowa's running game had more life than it had the prior season. The primary knock on the running game is that the Hawks had little to no RB depth. Anyhow, that season saw a marked jump in Ricky's completion percentage ... jumping up to a pretty impressive 64% (and with far fewer INTs).

What might be the implication for Nate Stanley?

 

[Pepperman]

Funny you should bring this up - just yesterday I was talking with a friend about Toren Young and how important I think he will be to this 2018 squad. For all of the great plays Wadley made, he also got caught at the LOS or behind it many times, which results in the dreaded 2nd and 11. Iowa's offense is simply not built to convert many series that end up off schedule like that. My contention is that Toren Young will be more likely to get us into 2nd and 7, and while some of the offset is he won't be as likely to make spectacular Wadley-like plays, the offense as a whole will be better with his style of running.

 

[paladinhawk]

It's similar to the chicken/egg question, but I think Iowa is going to need a more consistent passing game in order to force opposing teams to move defenders 'out of the box'. While the injuries to the OL were a part of the rush game issues last year, it's difficult to have a consistent rushing attack when the receivers are being covered one on one. Polasek will have had a full year on the job, so we'll if the OL have the grit/intensity he is claiming.

 

[millhawk]

Funny you should bring this up - just yesterday I was talking with a friend about Toren Young and how important I think he will be to this 2018 squad. For all of the great plays Wadley made, he also got caught at the LOS or behind it many times, which results in the dreaded 2nd and 11. Iowa's offense is simply not built to convert many series that end up off schedule like that. My contention is that Toren Young will be more likely to get us into 2nd and 7, and while some of the offset is he won't be as likely to make spectacular Wadley-like plays, the offense as a whole will be better with his style of running.

With IKM's speed and acceleration...he will hit some home runs for us.

 

[Johnsoda123]

Bingo on completion percentage. Stanley is definitely on the radar of NFL scouts. An article I read said he needed to improve his completion percentage, quicker release and awareness of the pass rush.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Funny you should bring this up - just yesterday I was talking with a friend about Toren Young and how important I think he will be to this 2018 squad. For all of the great plays Wadley made, he also got caught at the LOS or behind it many times, which results in the dreaded 2nd and 11. Iowa's offense is simply not built to convert many series that end up off schedule like that. My contention is that Toren Young will be more likely to get us into 2nd and 7, and while some of the offset is he won't be as likely to make spectacular Wadley-like plays, the offense as a whole will be better with his style of running.

I believe that the combo of Toren and Ivory could potentially allow for the Hawks to have its cake and eat it too. While I was always a fan of LeShun ... some of his tentativeness at the LOS led him to get stacked up at the LOS ... which was surprising given that he was perceived more as a "power" back.

In contrast, I believe that Toren is a TRUE power back ... there's no faking what this kid does ... he's a bull-dozer. What's impressive is that he's a smart kid with really good vision ... so he understands what the O is trying to do and he knows where to go. Of course, that's not to say that he hasn't missed cuts or won't miss cuts ... but from what we saw last season, he seemed to make pretty good decisions. As I've mentioned in another thread ... Toren did seem to run into the backs of his blockers a bit too often (and push them over) ... demonstrating a lack of patience. However, this latter observation is easily forgivable seeing that he was just a RS FR last season. He'll invariably improve ... and he'll likely work on being a little more patient and letting his blocks develop. I just hope that his acquisition of "patience" doesn't translate to tentativeness.

I believe that Ivory offers a great contrast to Toren. He offers a bit more explosiveness with a little "wiggle" ... and those are the sort of intangibles that can lead to explosive plays in the running game. I anticipate that the coaches will ride the "hot hand" ... but also rotate the guys in order to keep them fresh. As a duo, I believe they can offer a lot.

More importantly, while I also liked the duo of Wadley and Butler ... they were hamstrung by multiple factors .... Butler got injured, our TEs were still developing as blockers, we had all new OTs, our WRs were pretty new/inexperienced and needed to develop as blockers in the running game, etc. Furthermore, as others have pointed out, Butler and Wadley didn't offer a tremendously different skill-set. Thus, defenses didn't have to change things up much when approaching how to defend them.

I anticipate that in '18, Toren could potentially beat some defenses into partial submission ... and then, when defenses are shying from contact ... Ivory will run right by them!

 

[Georgia_Hawk]

I'm hopeful, but not overly confident that the running game will be better. Should see big improvements in the tackles, going from year 1 to 2. But on the interior, going from Daniels/Welsh to Render/Paulsen is scary, particularly in a zone blocking scheme.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I agree with a little bit of what everyone is saying. I think the running backs fit the system better and that should help in all factors of the offense. I also worry about the interior of that line. Fwiw. I think we go more "power" run against wiscy and Nebraska this year which will help early in the season especially.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I'm hopeful, but not overly confident that the running game will be better. Should see big improvements in the tackles, going from year 1 to 2. But on the interior, going from Daniels/Welsh to Render/Paulsen is scary, particularly in a zone blocking scheme.

Consider Iowa's rushing totals going from 2015 to 2016 ... the transition on the offensive line there was rather comparable. We went from having 2 stalwarts on the interior ... Blythe and Walsh ... to having Render and Daniels in their place. All the same, Iowa's rushing numbers in 2016 were actually pretty decent ... both LeShun and Akrum reached the 1000 yard mark. It's worth remarking that in this transition, both Daniels and Render were SOs.

In the transition on the OL from '17 to '18 ... the "new" guys pencilled in to start are Reynolds and Paulsen. Reynolds will be a SR who saw a lot of action in '17 and Paulsen will be a JR ... who has seen a few career starts already. Thus, while we're losing some pretty elite-level athleticism in the departure of Daniels ... at least the guys stepping up and stepping in have some quality experience.