Predict the Iowa Caucuses
- Thread starter IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life
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Going out on a limb, Rubio will win the republican side.
Sanders talk is nice and all, but Hillary still wins the dems.
Sanders talk is nice and all, but Hillary still wins the dems.
That looks about right. The biggest unknown is Trump. Many of his supporters will be first time voters and they are hard to predict.
What is reported and what actually happens will not be the same. The caucus night "poll" will be reported and that might show Trump or Cruz or Sanders winning their respective caucus. What actually happens is the supporters of the other candidates (in many precincts) will align themselves together in an attempt to shutout or reduce the number of delegates to county conventions for the person with the greatest number of votes. For example, if Trump wins in a precinct, as long as he is well under 50% (say 40% or so), the supporters for the other candidates can make a deal to split the precincts delegates between them. Of course, Trump supporters can make deals as well in an attempt to go above 50%. The news media never understands this, so it is not reported on. In 1988 Pat Robertson did not come close to having the second most delegates even though he was second in the "vote".
With that being said, I predict Cruz (1) and Trump (2) in close one on the GOP side.
I think Sander's fanatics will carry the day in their caucus.
With that being said, I predict Cruz (1) and Trump (2) in close one on the GOP side.
I think Sander's fanatics will carry the day in their caucus.
CNN just released their latest Iowa polls and maybe I am wrong about Cruz.
Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, is in third at 14%, the only other Republican in double digits. Ben Carson failed to register half of Rubio's support and is in fourth place at 6%.
Sanders, meanwhile, has opened up an eight-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, leading her in Iowa 51% to 43% among likely Democratic presidential caucus-goers.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/polit...rnie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html
Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, is in third at 14%, the only other Republican in double digits. Ben Carson failed to register half of Rubio's support and is in fourth place at 6%.
Sanders, meanwhile, has opened up an eight-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, leading her in Iowa 51% to 43% among likely Democratic presidential caucus-goers.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/polit...rnie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html
I saw that CNN poll too, IDK what to think. If Trump were to win Iowa by 10-11 points, it's over IMO as I think he'd take South Carolina and Nevada for sure. NH I have no idea on.
Iowa will pick the candidate that has indicated he'd like to force people to live by his Christian beliefs. This state is dumb that way.
I predict that at least 25% of "likely caucus-goers" who were polled don't know what a caucus is and have never sat through one.
Sanders and Trump will win Iowa and go on to be the nominees. Sanders will then win the popular vote 60-40.
