Some people aren’t here for discussion and having their opinions challenged. It’s fine
PSA: Ryan K playing now (10:30 AM)
- Thread starter Legend12
- Start date
You’re right. My apologies. Instead of using Beilien as another example of a coach who doesn’t agree with your statistical example of Fran not “getting it” I should have used Chis Holtman allowing a post like Kaleb Wesson to shoot 60+ 3 pointers. Your statement was “I don’t understand why Fran would EVER have him (Kreiner who shot 33%) shoot a 3. I challenged your opinion by showing examples of coaches that “allow” this. Beilein and Bo Ryan built teams like this for years. Izzo not so much but Fran’s rosters traditionally will look more like Ryan’s or Beilien’s than Izzo. Probably a bit smart ass of me to tell you to apply for the Michigan job because it was open.
The general consensus is that a 33% 3-point percentage is as advantageous as 50% for 2-point. That's based on points alone. I have not seen any studies showing whether 2 or 3 point misses have a better chance as follow-up points, but I would suspect that 3-point misses would render longer rebounds, favoring the offensive team. But that's just a guess.
There are plusses and minuses to both of those. It is not purely a sabermetrics analysis but strategy as well. If you want to argue that instead of saying you know more than a coach simply make the argument that it can space the floor and allow guards to get to the rim or another player to post. Then we can argue if the best use of a big is taking him away from his most productive area and that he is drawing fewer fouls. Like most things this is not a black and white issue and depends on the player. I don't mind RK shooting three's. I don't mind LG shooting three's but both need to know better when to take them and when not to. I think LG's injury set his shooting back last season as he seemed (I am too lazy to look at the numbers) to shoot much more poorly than his freshman year from outside. I think the personnel makes a huge difference too. TC wasn't a good shooter so LG and him clogging the paint wasn't always best and if LG or RK can hit a three, trying to make the other team play honest defense can be a benefit.
So, wow, a conversation on this can be had without stating that the person is smarter than a coach or that some coaches don't do it. We can disagree on things and that is ok. Consensus is boring but respect where the other person is coming from.
So, wow, a conversation on this can be had without stating that the person is smarter than a coach or that some coaches don't do it. We can disagree on things and that is ok. Consensus is boring but respect where the other person is coming from.
It was a good discussion, until it slid off the rails. Good points by both sides. I also think that it is reasonable to assume that if Ryan K continues to shoot the 3 and his confidence grows with more PT-senioritis-etc that his percentage could very well increase.
If you're an opposing coach in a tight game, do you leave him open from 3? I wouldn't (and I'm sure as heck not a basketball coach) and if you send someone to guard him then you provide more space in other area's of the floor.
If you're an opposing coach in a tight game, do you leave him open from 3? I wouldn't (and I'm sure as heck not a basketball coach) and if you send someone to guard him then you provide more space in other area's of the floor.
Good stuff here......and the analogy with Cook is a perfect one. When teams started to back off of him and dare him to shoot from the outside they packed it in and made it almost impossible for him to drive and made the interior defense tougher in the process. Ryan most likely won't have teams playing him that way?
Agree 100%. Especially on Garza. Many will point to his 28% 3 point shooting last season as a reason he shoulda NEVER shoot a 3 pointer. The end of his frosh season and beginning of last season he was VERY effective from 3 point range. He seemed to lose his shot a bit with the ankle injury. He’s obviously got a nice stroke as evidenced by being the best FT shooter on the team not named Bohannon.
Last edited:
All good man. I thought about that “never” statement a bit after I posted, and you’re absolutely right. “Never” is too strong, especially since both Garza and Kriener are capable of knocking down a three. Maybe more realistically, if either one of the two attempts a three and makes it, they have the green light to try another. If they miss, maybe hold off on shooting more for that game. The overall point is that there were 10 games where Garza finished either 0-2 or 0-3 from 3. Kriener was much better in that regard as he only had three such games. Like I said, Luka has been the predominant source of my frustration with bigs shooting 3’s, but maybe it’s being handled by Fran in regards to Kriener better than I thought.
Good point, with the caveat that it also allows defenses to rebound the ball and get out in transition more easily
Last edited:
Nobody claimed to be smarter than any coach. You make some good points otherwise though
It could but long rebounds generally favor the offense. And if guards are leaking on defense, that will give up more 3s. I am not talking about chucking up 3s every posession but rather taking the shot when it is open. Teams who pack the inside and/or crash the boards will be out of position. If a team is playing straight-up defense, then ball movement and motion will get open looks.
There are some studies out there that show the difference in "rebound length" is quite negligible and also stats indicate that jump shots have a lower offensive rebound % than other shots. Both of which seem to go against what you are thinking, which seems to make the most sense, really.
Longer rebounds: https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusp...do-longer-shot-attempts-mean-longer-rebounds/
Off Rebounds From Jumpers: http://www.82games.com/comm13.htm
There is something about the first study that seems flawed. If you take all shots including those under 10 feet, the average rebound would have to be longer for longer shots just by sheer physics. Shorter shots would not have the force to rebound longer. The longer the shot, the greater the force of the ball striking the rim/backboard. So I question the data. He must be limiting the shots to only those outside of a certain perimeter.
The second study results do show that there is little if any gain on followup shots. That definitely negates any perceived gain by the offense.
I don't have the time to delve into the first study today but I would like to understand better how the author came to the presented results. Might make more sense to me then.
In post-Splash-Brothers basketball, you are at a real disadvantage if you have two players on the team who are not allowed to take a 3. That makes defensive rotations so incredibly easy. I think Fran's philosophy reflects modern NBA philosophy. Look at the stats for Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins, or Blake Griffin.* Starting in about 2015, they all went from taking no 3's a game to taking multiple 3's a game. Each of them has a 3pt% fairly equivalent to Krieners. The NBA understands that traditional back-to-the-basket posts hurts your ability to open up the offense.
I disagree with your stance only because you're focused on the shots they actually take. Im more concerned about the shots they don't. By shooting 1 triple a game at 33%, defenses know you are capable of hitting the shot. This forces them to at least attempt to come out and cover you at the line. A late rotation allows Garza to blow past the guy, frees up a lane for another guy to cut, or leaves someone else open. You need to actually shoot the 3 every so often to keep the D honest.
*Here's the stats for those guys:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html
You make a salient point, and I’ve backed off my initial wording of “ever” or “never.” But if you’re at 0-3 shooting on the game (and are as good inside as our bigs were), as Garza was in multiple games last year, you’ve taken too many threes and the possession is as good as a turnover (especially since one of our top several rebounders is the guy who shot the ball).
Keep in mind that I do believe the face up midrange jumper is a very important part of our bigs’ games - even at or just beyond the free throw line. Both Kriener/Garza can hit this shot with enough consistency to keep defensive players honest and allow for the very effective high-low game (floor spacing) and the ability to take defenders off the dribble
I want to give all you guys credit. This is the most civil,coherent thread I've read on here in a long time.
There are a surprising amount of intelligent posters on this board. People learn more and become more knowledgeable fans when every thread doesn’t devolve into a pissing/“who is smarter?” match
Here are some stats from last year. I don’t care much for stats against the pre conference teams like the Alabama States of the world. I like looking at Big Ten stats, and over 20 games you get a pretty good feel if a player is a power 5 player. Scouting by other teams is excellent and typically can expose a players weaknesses and define their strengths
In Big Ten play here are the per 40 scoring averages.
Tyler Cook. 13.9 pts./game in 32.4 min. = 17.16/40
Luka 12.8 pts/game in 23.4 min. = 21.88/40
Jordan 12.6 pts/game in 32 min = 15.75/40
Joe 10.7 pts/game in 28.8 min = 14.86/40
Isaiah 9.4 pts/game in 25.7 min = 14.63/40
Nick 6.3 pts/game in 19 min = 13.26/40
Ryan 6.0 pts/game in 14.8 min = 16.21/40
Connor 3.1 pts/game in 18.2 min = 6.81/40
Maishe 2 pts/game in 11.2 min = 7.14/40
Ryan finished 3rd in scoring based on per 40 min.
Rebounding
Tyler was first at 10 rebounds/40
Nick was second at 9.47/40
Ryan was third at 8.11
Ryan finished first overall in first in field goal % in Big Ten play at 53%.
Ryan shot 35.7% from 3 point range in Big play.
Ryan shot 73.5% from the line in Big play.
Ryan’s defensive box score was second on the team behind Nick
Ryan has proven to be a very good passer.
Ryan’s turnovers and fouls were both down from prior year.
Ryan is clearly one of our most efficient players and we are fortunate to have Luka and Joe back as they are also two of our most efficient players from last year.
At the year end banquet Ryan was recognized as the most improved player. It was cited that improved in every statistical category which is accurate.
Ryan has developed into a very good all around Big Ten player.
People writing Ryan off as a role player may be surprised this year. I was most impressed to see Ryan lead his team in rebounding on the overseas trip and have heard reports of his defense being outstanding. Everything points to Ryan having his best season of his career next year.
In Big Ten play here are the per 40 scoring averages.
Tyler Cook. 13.9 pts./game in 32.4 min. = 17.16/40
Luka 12.8 pts/game in 23.4 min. = 21.88/40
Jordan 12.6 pts/game in 32 min = 15.75/40
Joe 10.7 pts/game in 28.8 min = 14.86/40
Isaiah 9.4 pts/game in 25.7 min = 14.63/40
Nick 6.3 pts/game in 19 min = 13.26/40
Ryan 6.0 pts/game in 14.8 min = 16.21/40
Connor 3.1 pts/game in 18.2 min = 6.81/40
Maishe 2 pts/game in 11.2 min = 7.14/40
Ryan finished 3rd in scoring based on per 40 min.
Rebounding
Tyler was first at 10 rebounds/40
Nick was second at 9.47/40
Ryan was third at 8.11
Ryan finished first overall in first in field goal % in Big Ten play at 53%.
Ryan shot 35.7% from 3 point range in Big play.
Ryan shot 73.5% from the line in Big play.
Ryan’s defensive box score was second on the team behind Nick
Ryan has proven to be a very good passer.
Ryan’s turnovers and fouls were both down from prior year.
Ryan is clearly one of our most efficient players and we are fortunate to have Luka and Joe back as they are also two of our most efficient players from last year.
At the year end banquet Ryan was recognized as the most improved player. It was cited that improved in every statistical category which is accurate.
Ryan has developed into a very good all around Big Ten player.
People writing Ryan off as a role player may be surprised this year. I was most impressed to see Ryan lead his team in rebounding on the overseas trip and have heard reports of his defense being outstanding. Everything points to Ryan having his best season of his career next year.
Great post. Ryan has had some great moments and I agree improved a lot last year. I expect a strong year out of him. Only thing he needs to do is improve in his consistency.
Our bigs need to take the occasional 3 shot, depending on the personnel on the floor at any given time. If we show no willingness to stretch the defenses out a bit it will impair our ability to operate efficiently inside the post/lane area.
I'd much prefer to see a big taking an uncontested 3 pointer now and then over seeing a SG lobbing up a 16-20 foot shot. For better or worse, the Hawkeye that took most of those least efficient shots is no longer on our roster.
I'd much prefer to see a big taking an uncontested 3 pointer now and then over seeing a SG lobbing up a 16-20 foot shot. For better or worse, the Hawkeye that took most of those least efficient shots is no longer on our roster.
Probably because the haters haven’t shown up yet and it’s just us kool-aid drinkers.
Shooting 3s is an important part of the offense. For Ryan and Luka, the 3s need to be in rhythm (not forced) and often guys have a couple of preferred spots (e.g., corner or top of the key), which they practice daily. I want both around the basket most of the time, especially Luka, because they have nice post up games, which usually yield high-percentage shots and can draw fouls on opposing bigs. It also allows them to carve out space for offensive rebounds.
It seems counter-intuitive that longer shots don't lead to more long rebounds, but when you are shooting around the basket, you often know if you missed the shot and where it is more likely to go than the defender, which might offset any higher likelihood of offensive rebounds from longer shots.
In general, I believe in going to what is working until the other team shows they can stop it.
It seems counter-intuitive that longer shots don't lead to more long rebounds, but when you are shooting around the basket, you often know if you missed the shot and where it is more likely to go than the defender, which might offset any higher likelihood of offensive rebounds from longer shots.
In general, I believe in going to what is working until the other team shows they can stop it.
Yeah Kriener improved last year. Most players with ability play better when they get some sort of consistency in playing time. Pemsl's injury and Nunge's redshirt helped Kriener as much as any player by him knowing that he would play in every game. If he had a bad game, he wasn't going to not play for 2 games or have his minutes greatly reduced. He had to play every game he was healthy.
As to whether Kriener and Garza should take 3's, the answer is they almost have to (in the right situations). Every player that doesn't have to be guarded out to the 3-point line makes it harder to play offense. You can get away with one guy who can't shoot (i.e. Cook) but if you have multiple players on the floor who are no threat from the 3-point line it's really hard to play. In general, if they shoot when open (and not super early in the shot clock) I'm fine with it.
Here is another fact in Kriener’s favor. Iowa started the season 0-3 in the Big Ten. Kriener got his first start of his career when Nebraska came to town as Garza was injured. Iowa got a big win that day and Kriener went toe to toe with Isaiah Roby scoring 14 that day. Over that game and the next 4 Kriener averaged about 20 minutes a game as Garza was limited and Cook missed 2 games. Iowa won all 5 games to get their conference record back to 5-3. KRIENER averaged 12 points a game over that span and really helped save the season when we needed him most. If Kriener doesn’t come up big in that stretch we more than likely don’t make the tourney.
Point being, give him consistent minutes and he will produce. More importantly he helps the team win and he’s not a me first type of player.
Point being, give him consistent minutes and he will produce. More importantly he helps the team win and he’s not a me first type of player.
Those were interesting but I have even more questions
What was untrue? I honestly didn't look any of it up. I remember RK coming in and providing quality minutes but I didn't remember the stretch or what it was.
I like Garza and think he should still be starting but I thought it was interesting to read.
I looked up the stats. The 5th game against Illiinois he played 10 minutes and zero points. The previous 4 games, he averaged a little over 20 minutes and 10 points and 3 rebounds a game.
If we could get those numbers most games I would be very happy.
If we could get those numbers most games I would be very happy.
