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QB regression & Kirk

kwik44

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Mar 6, 2003
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For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
Jake Rudock: C+, C+
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial)
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.
 
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For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, C ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, C-, D (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.
Last year is a D+ this year is an F. Otherwise what is failing?
 
I think you are judging the QBs grades WAY too much on the results of the team. With the notable exception of 2019 Stanley.
- Stanzi had his best year BY FAR in 2010 (senior).
- Drew Tate definitely had his best year as a Junior.
- CJ was best Junior year, but injuries played a big role Sr year. Wasn’t vandeberg hurt most of year? I think Kittle might have been down a few games too.
- Stanley was never a killer, and I disagree he regressed his Sr year. He had possibly the most consistent performance across the 3 years of any of the QBs on here. Threw fewer TDs sure, but I don’t think that drops him a full letter grade

If you want to highlight Kirks mismanagement of QBs you’d make a more compelling case if you brought JC, Vandenburg, or Rudock into the conversation.
 
Beathard I truly believe his last two years he had bad legs and needed surgeries probably to fix them and would more then likely take him out for the season. He just never ran like hi did after his first season
 
For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
Jake Rudock: C+, C+
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial)
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.
Brian said, in his YouTube published outside zone clinic, that the QBs get very little individual time in Iowa's practices to work on QB individual skills. They mostly get work with groups of players, going over the importance of things such as the 2/10-o'clock handoff position for the outside zone stretch play. He then showed the handoff drills with the qbs under center and no backs, and the qbs under center with a single back.

Now, it seems to me that if the QBs have to work handoff drills more often than they work passing mechanics, that might explain some of the passing woes at the University of Iowa. Just saying.
 
For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
Jake Rudock: C+, C+
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial)
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.

Looking at statistics, primarily QBR, I'm not sure if your hypothesis holds up. Tate did have a poor senior season and obviously Vandenburg with the new OC.

Beathard had 10 int's his senior season - by far his worst. Doesn't seem like he was "too careful" after being with KF.

Drew Tate: A-, B, C - Statistically he was much better in his Junior year than as a soph. Senior year wasn't good.
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter) - His senior year was far and away his best statistically,
James Vandenberg: B-, C- - New OC as a starter, offense was in shambles.
Jake Rudock: C+, C+ - His Junior year was much better stat wise, and his QBR is competitive with other good QB's.
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial) - Some injuries are likely to blame here.
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+ - Stanley's QBR was very close to his sophomore and junior years. I don't think he regressed.
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F

Oh, yeah, and Brad Banks almost one the Heisman after spending a year in the program. Was not highly sought after coming out of JC.

So, I'd say Drew Tate and SP regressed. The others didn't or had mitigating factors.
 
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Albert Young leading the big ten in rushing in 05 definitely helped Tate, what he did as a soph with no running game at all was pretty damn amazing. Hard to even imagine with today's offense
Tate's '04 season was something else. The polar opposite of what we've seen lately from the qb position. He had essentially no running game at all given a starting rb who had zero business seeing the field in a B1G game.
Tate scrambled, made plays with his feet, went off script and made things happen. Getting that type of play out of the qb position at Iowa now is inconceivable.
 
Last year is a D+ this year is an F. Otherwise what is failing?

Looking at statistics, primarily QBR, I'm not sure if your hypothesis holds up. Tate did have a poor senior season and obviously Vandenburg with the new OC.

Beathard had 10 int's his senior season - by far his worst. Doesn't seem like he was "too careful" after being with KF.

Drew Tate: A-, B, C - Statistically he was much better in his Junior year than as a soph. Senior year wasn't good.
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter) - His senior year was far and away his best statistically,
James Vandenberg: B-, C- - New OC as a starter, offense was in shambles.
Jake Rudock: C+, C+ - His Junior year was much better stat wise, and his QBR is competitive with other good QB's.
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial) - Some injuries are likely to blame here.
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+ - Stanley's QBR was very close to his sophomore and junior years. I don't think he regressed.
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F

Oh, yeah, and Brad Banks almost one the Heisman after spending a year in the program. Was not highly sought after coming out of JC.

So, I'd say Drew Tate and SP regressed. The others didn't or had mitigating factors.
There are items on here that aren't necessarily tied to stats. I won't name them all, but major gaffes in most senior seasons that may have affected a game or two.
Plays like missing Hockenson wide open at Penn State, that sort of thing. (Stanley was a junior, yes, but for reference to those plays)

W/L record also a problem - hold Stanley, although I think that team should have been better than 10-3.
 
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There are items on here that aren't necessarily tied to stats. I won't name them all, but major gaffes in most senior seasons that may have affected a game or two. Plays like missing Hockenson wide open at Penn State, that sort of thing.

W/L record also a problem - hold Stanley, although I think that team was actually better than 10-3.
Stanley wasn’t a senior.
 
There are items on here that aren't necessarily tied to stats. I won't name them all, but major gaffes in most senior seasons that may have affected a game or two. Plays like missing Hockenson wide open at Penn State, that sort of thing.
So, like Stanzi throwing 6 pick-6's in his Junior year? But he gets a B+?

Respectfully I think you are reaching a little. As an example, missing a wide open receiver shouldn't mean the QB regressed.

Now, if you want to say they didn't IMPROVE under KF and his coaches, I'm on board. Experience should lead to more improvement and I don't think we've seen it in any KF QB.
 
So, like Stanzi throwing 6 pick-6's in his Junior year? But he gets a B+?

Respectfully I think you are reaching a little. As an example, missing a wide open receiver shouldn't mean the QB regressed.

Now, if you want to say they didn't IMPROVE under KF and his coaches, I'm on board. Experience should lead to more improvement and I don't think we've seen it in any KF QB.
Tate 6-7
Stanzi 7-5
Vandenberg 4-8
CJ - 8-5
Stanley 10-3
SP - ?
 
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Looking at statistics, primarily QBR, I'm not sure if your hypothesis holds up. Tate did have a poor senior season and obviously Vandenburg with the new OC.

Beathard had 10 int's his senior season - by far his worst. Doesn't seem like he was "too careful" after being with KF.

Drew Tate: A-, B, C - Statistically he was much better in his Junior year than as a soph. Senior year wasn't good.
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter) - His senior year was far and away his best statistically,
James Vandenberg: B-, C- - New OC as a starter, offense was in shambles.
Jake Rudock: C+, C+ - His Junior year was much better stat wise, and his QBR is competitive with other good QB's.
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial) - Some injuries are likely to blame here.
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+ - Stanley's QBR was very close to his sophomore and junior years. I don't think he regressed.
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F

Oh, yeah, and Brad Banks almost one the Heisman after spending a year in the program. Was not highly sought after coming out of JC.

So, I'd say Drew Tate and SP regressed. The others didn't or had mitigating factors.
I don’t even think I would say Drew Tate regressed. He had some tough games (notably playing #1 OSU and #2 Michigan) but he still had some good games too. Spencer has looked consistently bad for many games now dating back to last year.
 
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I really think the QB coaching by Iowa coaches is not on mechanics much at all. I think it is mostly on reading defenses pre-snap as has been mentioned and how to make adjustments and audibles. I have seen video and reporting on a few drills they use with the qbs to work on passing to receivers running slants and crossing patterns running across the face of the qb so they can try to be really good at leading their teammates.

I think they have always left most of the mechanics to the families and the qb to go to camps, etc.

Petras has a somewhat long windup and slower release compared to many of the greats like Namath and Marino where their windup was almost non-existent but instead they just brought the ball up from in front of them past their ear and let it rip.

If you look at video of Namath the ball never goes behind his body when he winds up making for that quick release and maybe better accuracy. Same with Marino and others, watch them if you have never noticed this.
 
I tried inserting some namath and marion youtube hilites links but they are blocked but you can certainly find them
 
For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
Jake Rudock: C+, C+
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial)
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.
I'd put vandenberg lower, his greg davis year was a disaster. We haven't seen anything that bad until the last two seasons.
 
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They get pounded daily on no mistakes they become more indecisive game by game. Coupled with some of the worst offensive play calling in any college and that's what you get.
💯. There's a big difference between being told what not to do, and being told what to do.

One way focuses on the problem and another focuses on the solution.
 
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For many years/QB cycles, it has been noted that several QB's have regressed over their careers.

The belief was that Ken O'Keefe was the common denominator at the time. It can be argued that:

Above average ->Average -> Slightly below average, over 3 years span as starter (2 for some)

Drew Tate: A-, B, C
Ricky Stanzi: B+, B+, B- ('08, partial starter)
James Vandenberg: B-, C-
Jake Rudock: C+, C+
CJ Beathard B+, A-,C+ ('14 partial)
Nate Stanley: B+, B+, C+
Spencer Petras: C+, D+, F (jury not out yet, but thus far).

The official common denominator, folks, is Kirk Ferentz. The over exuberance KF teaches to not make any mistakes turns QB's into zombies by the time they're seniors.
The Petras situation is sufficiently frustrating and disappointing without these false or distorted narratives. We've got a finite number so let's examine reality vs. the argument above. Reality really does matter.

First let's look at the top 20 QBing seasons at Iowa.

Passing (min. 1,500 yards) Name Comp-Att __Pct. __ Yards __TDs _ Year
1. Chuck Hartlieb _____ 288-460 __ .626 __ 3,738 __ 17 __ 1988
2. Chuck Long________ 260-388 __ .670 __ 3,297 __ 27 __ 1985
3. Chuck Hartlieb _____ 217-334 __ .650 __ 3,092 __ 19 __ 1987
4. James Vandenberg__ 232-404 __ .574 __ 3,022 __ 25 __ 2011
5. Ricky Stanzi________ 221-345 __ .641 __ 3,004 __ 25 __ 2010
6. Nate Stanley _______ 237-399 __ .594 __ 2,951 __ 16 __ 2019
7. Chuck Long________ 216-322 __ .671 __ 2,871 __ 22 __ 1984
8. Nate Stanley _______ 235-396 __ .593 __ 2,852 __ 26 __ 2018
9. Drew Tate _________ 219-352 __ .622 __ 2,828 __ 22 __ 2005
10. C.J. Beathard _______ 223-362 __ .616 __ 2,809 __ 17 __ 2015
11. Drew Tate _________ 233-375 __ .621 __ 2,786 __ 20 __ 2004
12. Drew Tate _________ 207-352 __ .588 __ 2,623 __ 18 __ 2006
13. Chuck Long________ 157-265 __ .592 __ 2,601 __ 14 __ 1983
14. Brad Banks ________ 170-294 __ .578 __ 2,573 __ 26 __ 2002
15. Matt Sherman______ 170-295 __ .576 __ 2,546 __ 14 __ 1995
16. Nate Stanley _______ 196-351 __ .558 __ 2,437 __ 26 __ 2017
17. Jake Rudock _______ 213-345 __ .617 __ 2,436 __ 16 __ 2014
18. Ricky Stanzi________ 171-304 __ .562 __ 2,417 __ 17 __ 2009
19. Jake Rudock _______ 204-346 __ .590 __ 2,383 __ 18 __ 2013
20. Matt Rodgers ______ 185-283 __ .654 __ 2,275 __ 14 __ 1991

The posters grades are presumably based on Iowa QBing and not national historical standard. Two very different metrics. Winning is not particularly significant to a positional evaluation.

Need a reasonably objective metric. Iowa has probably has at least 200 different QBs get a starting opportunity. So top 10% make the above list. The top 10%, is almost always an "A". Next twenty "B".

Let's look at each QB you named.

Drew Tate

1223337562.127867.46.82014134.7
JRQB1221935262.228288.08.4227146.4
SRQB1120735258.826237.56.81813130

Drew played his soph starter season without a running game. So, 2004 #9 top season, 2005 (#11), 2006 (#11). All three seasons are within a range of only 205 yards. Tate played much of his last season with injuries. The only reserve was true freshman Jake Christensen. Senior year clearly less than 100%. Blame Kirk F for the Drew's injuries and inhibitions they imposed?

Ricky's Stanzi

SOQB1315025459.119567.77.2149134.8
*2009IowaBig TenJRQB1117130456.324178.06.81715131.6
*2010IowaBig TenSRQB1322134564.130048.79.4256157.6

Ricky started the last ten games of his soph season and played equal time with Jake in the first two games. So 2008 (#29) B, 2009 (#18) A and his senior season (#5) a solid A? Does KF get credit for the extensive improvement in Ricky's career?

CJ

SOQB8529256.56457.07.152129.0
*2015IowaBig TenJRQB1422336261.628097.88.1175139.5
*2016IowaBig TenSRQB1317030156.519296.46.01710122.

Nothing on which to evaluate soph year. Significantly worse than Rudock's, whose junior year is #17 solid A CJ, also injured his senior year regressed all the way to #30. Blame KF for the injuries?

Vandenberg

SOQB35862.5455.68.110151.0
JRQB1323740458.730227.57.9257138.5
SRQB1222338957.322495.85.278107.

Junior year was the 4th best single season QB performance in Iowa history. Only two guys named Chuck had better seasons. James had an even worse injury than Drew or CJ.

Nate Stanley

SOQB1319635155.824326.97.6266135.1
JRJRQB1323539659.328527.27.42610136.5
SrSRQB1323739959.429517.47.4167131.2

All three seasons were A seasons. Nate improved every season in yards and completion percentage but fewer TDs senior year. Sr season Nate lost his top 3 receivers, two of whom were All Americans and Iowa was running the three headed monster at RB. Senior season (#6) Nate still completed more passes for more yards at a higher percentage with even fewer interceptions than the prior season (#8). Nate did improve every season at Iowa, So who get's credit for that?

The Stanzi thing is entirely different. He's the worst starting QB in the country and, at least for two games, he's still starting. That cannot be reasonably explained but is coming to an end, I think.
 
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I think some of you have way too much time on your hands.

What matters at this point in time is the situation with Petras right now. He has created a recent and significant "body of work" that defines him as a game day QB. It doesn't matter how you analyze it, review it, watch it, apply your "gut feel" to it....the results land in the same place. He just isn't a very good game QB for this team. He's slow moving, indecisive, lacks any hint of confidence, throws often with poor mechanics, doesn't have command of the team on the field as a leader, demonstrates no real pocket presence, doesn't seem to have much in the way of determination to make plays, panics quickly, locks onto one receiver and seems to refuse to check down to someone else.....and he has no "fire" in him. I do feel bad for the kid, regardless of how this all happened.

At some point....you have to realize what this has evolved into:

We are all now cheering like we won the National Championship just at the sight of a 6 yard completed pass. In my humble opinion, when that becomes the reality....it's time for this QB to sit the rest of the season.
 
You’re an idiot if you think Stanzi regressed. Drew Tate was better as a junior and Stanley was best as a senior.
100% correct. Tate's stats were not great in 2004. He did a great job pulling some plays out of his hat. Great job by KOK remaking the offense on the fly, but that team won the Big 10 largely through great special teams and defense. In 2005, Tate increased his completion %, increased his TD%, reduced his interception % by a lot, increased his yards per attempt. But the defense was far worse after losing some great players on the defensive side and they lost some close games. 2006 Tate was hurt most of the year.
Stanzi did not regress. His numbers in 2010 compared to 2009 were night and day better. Tell me we wouldn't kill for this QB production now. Stanzi completed 64% of his passes, for 3,004 yards, 25 TD's, 6 INT, 8.7 yards per attempt. That is great production from the QB. In 2009, Stanzi completed 56% of his passes, 17 TD, 15 INT, 7.9 yards per attempt. Heck, the 2009 Stanzi performance we would die for right now.

Every situation is different. Vandeberg definitely fell off a cliff, mostly due to KOK leaving and a new offense being installed. Bad fit.
Beathard was very good in 2015 and also had a far better receiving corps. In 2016, he had only Vandeberg and Kittle. When both guys got hurt, the Iowa passing game was DOA.
Stanley was exceedingly consistent throughout his career. Could not really ever make the jump from good to really good/great, but his consistency was very underappreciated.

It points to the fact that the issues are likely much larger than the QB with Iowa's offense. But I would say that the QB play has been so bad that KF is hurting the team by not making a change.
 
It points to the fact that the issues are likely much larger than the QB with Iowa's offense. But I would say that the QB play has been so bad that KF is hurting the team by not making a change.

This is only the 2nd time I've questioned KF's QB decisions. The first was Scott Mullen, and KF would play a true freshman at QB to keep Scott on the bench.

I can see being afraid of Padilla, he flunked the audition once already. No one has seen Labas play. Maybe Petras is the best and we've really had bad luck. Labas, May, Lainz and even the 2024 kid are dual threats. So it certainly appears the profile of the QB is changing for the better.
 
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Tate 6-7
Stanzi 7-5
Vandenberg 4-8
CJ - 8-5
Stanley 10-3
SP - ?

Going by w/l is the laziest way possible to judge quarterback development or lack of. Completely ignores all other factors such as injury, attrition, strength of schedule, etc.

I don’t even think I would say Drew Tate regressed. He had some tough games (notably playing #1 OSU and #2 Michigan) but he still had some good games too. Spencer has looked consistently bad for many games now dating back to last year.

I’m forgetting the injury Tate had that he played thru and ultimately missed a game over. As well as working with a pretty green receiving corp as I recall.
 
Going by w/l is the laziest way possible to judge quarterback development or lack of. Completely ignores all other factors such as injury, attrition, strength of schedule, etc.
Great point. To extend and enlarge: does the QB drop passes, like say All American Noah Fant did in what think was OT in a Nate Stanley game (soph year I think)? Miss blocks that blow up plays entirely? Get burned deep late in games? A QB can singlehandedly lose a game but cannot single handedly win games. It is unfair to burden the QB with other players' mistakes. Ricky Stanzi improved tremendously senior season yet the team regressed.
 
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If you want stats as a crutch, Stanzi did not regress. But if you want to evaluate him as a playmaker (which is a better evaluation method for a QB), then KF's restrictions caused him to regress.
You have absolutely no way to prove that Stanzi regressed as a playmaker besides using your flawed nonsensical gibberish.
 
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If you want stats as a crutch, Stanzi did not regress. But if you want to evaluate him as a playmaker (which is a better evaluation method for a QB), then KF's restrictions caused him to regress.

So, he threw for more yards, more touchdowns, fewer turnovers, fewer sacks, yet he made fewer plays? Your argument makes no sense.

Iowa went 7-5 his senior because the defense got absolutely decimated by injuries and couldn’t hold leads (4 blown 4th quarter leads if I recall). For example by the end of the year we were down to 4th string, true freshman LB James Morris at MLB.
 
If you want stats as a crutch, Stanzi did not regress. But if you want to evaluate him as a playmaker (which is a better evaluation method for a QB), then KF's restrictions caused him to regress.
Stats aren't a crutch. They are the objective metrics by which QB, and all other positions, play is defined and objectively catalogued. A large sample, as were all of mine show almost every such measurement ultimately accounts for subjective things like luck, team quality etc. Those are intangible. The ghost in the machine if you will. At the end of the day the throws and the results of such throws are a finite number that is clearly tracked and measured.

Statistics are the metrics by which all things are measured and evaluated. Even in the afterlife, if one goes for that, you set your wealth in goodly deeds against the sins you've laid.

The rest is just emo bullshit people have constructed since the birth of the first hominid. Primarily to make themselves feel good or bad. Bob Seger was wrong, we are just the sum of a large number of data sets. That is why Bob feels like a number, he is!
 
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If you want stats as a crutch, Stanzi did not regress. But if you want to evaluate him as a playmaker (which is a better evaluation method for a QB), then KF's restrictions caused him to regress.
Ferentz fear of turning the ball over is the biggest reason for our qb play. If the qb has huge play abilities but also has higher chance to turn it over he won't play him.
 
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Ferentz fear of turning the ball over is the biggest reason for our qb play. If the qb has huge play abilities but also has higher chance to turn it over he won't play him
So how did Stanzi beat out Christensen in 08?
 
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