I think we are deeper and more experienced at WR than last year. New guys plus some of the younger guys developing. Better OL/Pass scheme and our passing game should improve.
Reasons for cautious optimism?
- Thread starter RagnarLothbrok
- Start date
No kidding.
That’s actually one of things that is proven to be true. He literally has done #4, and quite successfully more than a few times by any measure.
He hasn’t done it at Iowa yet, but there is documented evidence of him doing it.
Ferentz, Parker, and Woods are reasons for optimism. Lester is a reason to temper that optimism with some caution.
No, but keep trying. At some point something you say is bound to make sense.
And I would suggest that your expectations are completely unreasonable. 10 wins.
Signed,
Eyesofhawk
I got one of those. Don't feel bad. I don't read them anymore.
Although timing can be a big part of winning, especially in close games, nothing about Iowa's recent success has been lucky. A reminder that two seasons ago Iowa also has the worst offense in the country, and won 8 games.
Quick, simplified lesson:
Let's break down last season from a perspective of game theory.
Iowa's offense/opponent's defense vs opponent's offense/Iowa's defense = wash. Again, this is a simplification, but essentially accurate. Iowa scored 216, gave up 207. As we know, not every game was that close; so perhaps a better representation is yards per play. 3.9 for Iowa's offense, while the D gave up 4.1.
So given those components of the game were a wash, we move to special teams. Here, with Iowa's punter, punt coverage, and punt returner, you will find a huge difference in yardage between Iowa and its opponents. Boom, the field gets flipped, and Iowa is at least able to get into FG range.
There's nothing lucky about it. It works because elite defense is a given in the formula. Completely dependable and repeatable. Again, nothing lucky about it. Quite simply, Iowa's defense dominates its opponent's offense.
Nothing lucky about the special teams either. Yes, Taylor and DeJean were great talents. But Iowa has always had great special teams. They recruit to it. They emphasize it. And they develop their coverage and return units.
Looking a little deeper:
Although Iowa's offense vs opponent's offense was essentially a wash, Iowa had a better chance to break a big play than did its opponent. Reason being - the given that Iowa's D doesn't give up big plays.
Furthermore, although it didn't play out this way last season, Iowa has the higher probability of winning the turnover battle. Reason being - Iowa's D traditionally forces a lot of turnovers, and their risk averse offense usually protects the ball.
This brings me to the point that if there were any luck last season for Iowa, it was bad luck. Certainly there is an element of luck to turnovers. But when a program leads the country over a 10 year span in INT's, it goes beyond luck. Iowa's defense just couldn't get the bounce of the ball for pretty much the entirety of last season.
Plus, Iowa wasn't nearly as good connecting on FG's last season as they normally are.
The only thing that's hard to believe about last season is that Iowa wasn't winning easier. This is illustrated by the unexpected lack of turnover margin and FG success.
This is such an obvious formula for winning that a 4 year old could recognize it. Mind you, that's with the worst offense in the country.
The reason people can't understand it, or chalk it up to luck, is because they are looking for something other than simply winning in the first place. Their selfish entertainment needs get in the way and result in emotion. Their anger, frustration, lack of control, lack of patience, clouds their vision and renders them clueless in regards to something very obvious
Some things are just that simple.
Kind of like football.
You innovated a cure for cancer yet, Doc?
"Quick, simplified lesson:"
-----------------------So then this is the dumbed down version for those of us that are halfwits?
-----------------------So then this is the dumbed down version for those of us that are halfwits?
no brian, no bacon hill
Statistically, it was not a miracle. Each win shared a very important statistic, we had more points than the opponent. Just math.
I thought the same until I say Cade's Stateline at kids day.
Fair enough.
So many did use that reasoning, but I'll take you at your word.
Give you credit for realizing that things can get worse
I just look at Vegas.
I believe they favor Iowa in 11 of 12 games right now.
I think that reflects a favorable schedule and our strong defense.
Timely offense at the end of games like last year vs NW,Neb ECT is the most important offensive stat.
I'm with Vegas...iowa 11-1 , playoff bound. Home game on Dec 20 in Kinnick.
Go Hawks!
I believe they favor Iowa in 11 of 12 games right now.
I think that reflects a favorable schedule and our strong defense.
Timely offense at the end of games like last year vs NW,Neb ECT is the most important offensive stat.
I'm with Vegas...iowa 11-1 , playoff bound. Home game on Dec 20 in Kinnick.
Go Hawks!
I see no path to the playoffs even at 11-2 after 2 losses to Ohio State. that big ten championship game would be a play-in game if Iowa is involved, especially since it is the only ranked team on the schedule. Penn State, Michigan or Oregon would move ahead for the other spot(s) is my guess.
Actually Vegas has Iowa's win total at 8. Some books have that juiced as high as -140. Started at 7.5. I've seen it on FanDuel at 8.5 +160.
Yes, Vegas currently has Iowa favored in all but one game. But take the Wisconsin game for example. Iowa is currently a 3 point favorite there. Which means there is roughly a 40% chance Iowa will lose that game.
Just because Iowa is favored in a game doesn't mean they're a lock to win it. And certainly not all of them.
So the math shakes out to a projection of about 8 wins.
I agree with you that 8 is too low, which is why I pounded it when it was at 7.5 with a large bet.
But I would caution potential bettors to shop for a juice -125 or lower. The books that have it at -140 have essentially neutralized your edge
If Lester's offense can get receivers open, if the QB can get the ball to them on time, and if the WRs can often make the first player miss and/or get some YAC then I think the offense will be improved. And I have heard Lester likes to throw it to open running backs in space which I always thought was a great move since they are called running backs because they are the best runners with the ball.
With some improved passing and spreading out the defense I think our running back will take a big step forward.
With some improved passing and spreading out the defense I think our running back will take a big step forward.
I know, and I understand, where your argument is coming from..............you play to WIN THE GAME.
But here is the rub, college football is entertainment. Now would I be happy if Iowa plays for the National Championship and every game is 7-3, 10-9, etc.? Yeah, I would be. But they aren't winning to that level.
Fans who are invested in a team (both emotionally and financially) want to be entertained. The want to jump off of their Couch screaming on 50- yard TD passes........they want to find fellow Hawk fans close to them at away games for high 5's when the Hawks pick up a big 3rd and 10 in a late game situation. A pick 6 or a punt return TD that doesn't get called back (F-U Big 10) definitely evoke the same feelings.......but those are very infrequent, even for the Hawks. 10-12 splash plays on offense during a game make it more FUN.
Not sure how you can argue that. I love a 10-2 season, that's a great record. But I also have no problem admitting last year was not very much fun. Maybe that makes me a bad fan.
There is always reason for optimism this time of year. If as a fan you cannot be at least somewhat hopeful of what your team can do this season, then what is the point?
Reality is: we have a very favorable schedule, an excellent, proven, and veteran defense, what should be solid special teams, and a successful coaching staff. All the questions are on offense and there are just as many reasons to be optimistic as there are to be doubtful coming off what was arguably the worse offense in the country, and a bowl game beat down that was simply embarrassing to watch.
The facts that Brian and Hill are both gone, and the team is healthy is reason enough to be at least a little optimistic.
Reality is: we have a very favorable schedule, an excellent, proven, and veteran defense, what should be solid special teams, and a successful coaching staff. All the questions are on offense and there are just as many reasons to be optimistic as there are to be doubtful coming off what was arguably the worse offense in the country, and a bowl game beat down that was simply embarrassing to watch.
The facts that Brian and Hill are both gone, and the team is healthy is reason enough to be at least a little optimistic.
Will NOT be surprised when Iowa puts up 250+ yards rushing on Saturday.
Should against a 1-AA school.
You know it is gonna be run heavy. I'd be telling those backs they better load up on the yards.
He reacted to this message, so ...
Esp with KF out, I can easily see his marching orders to be "run the ball all game and get out."
Will Lester go wild? Dad's away and the kids are gonna play.
Imagine if Brian was still there, would he have been interim HC for the game?
I feel like the RB room is stacked and the OLine is mature.
I get that sense also. And when that starts happening the old play action makes defenders bite hard.
Correct, it should have been 11 wins! It was not a fair catch!
Great defense. Improved offense.
I’m optimistic. Without caution.
I’m optimistic. Without caution.
If our offense can muster first downs, our defense will be well rested. Just think if the defense has an additional 9-12 plays off as the O is churning out more first downs. A fresh, rested defense will be even more dominant. How many 3 and outs did Iowa have last year?
Just count how many drives we had last year, and take that minus about 10. Should be pretty close.
Several mentions of Luke Lachey as a reason for optimism and I agree.
However, I feel like #87 Addison Ostrenga is being overlooked and is poised to have a breakout season, possibly eclipsing Lachey.
However, I feel like #87 Addison Ostrenga is being overlooked and is poised to have a breakout season, possibly eclipsing Lachey.
I don't know that he eclipses Lachey who should have a tremendous year if healthy and the offense is improved, but I agree that Ostrenga definitely looks the part and could have a breakout season if given the opportunity.
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