Reasons for hope?

[Ihawkhoops]

I am picking up on a vibe that some... most... all think I have a negative view towards Fran and his future prospects at Iowa. While this factually correct, I am in better spirits today because the weather is turning cold again, which will extend the ice fishing season. So, here is my attempt at being optymystique, wait optymistik, no ok, ok, optimistic. Have not typed that for a while--sorry.

My thoughts on the starting 5 and the future:

Kriener: Should be in the starting lineup effective Saturday for the rest of the season. Athletic, confident, knows his spots on the floor, great stroke and has some Settles / Street / Cole scrappy toughness. Pick and pop ability sorely needed.

Cook: Will be the primary beneficiary of Kriener starting. Pemsl and Cook do not have complimentary games. They both seek to occupy the same space offensively. Fran needs to encourage him to take the mid-range jumper make or miss to get his guy out of the paint. Cook can drive on guys in space, but is a train wreck in traffic. Isolate him on the block, get him to commit to a move more quickly vs. holding and drawing a double. Go or kick it out and get it back.

Bohannon: From the mean streets of Marion and a graduate of Linn-Mar, just like yours truly. What can I say, not a fan of him as our starting PG, but that is on Fran not him. Kid is tough and not afraid to take big shots. He needs to be willing to take contact when he drives. His soft floaters don't go in or get him to the stripe, where he is lethal. There is space between the 3 point line and the lane JBo. Look for better shots and use ball fakes to draw some fouls. Hit the film room and watch some tape of Cully Payne. See him jump in the air with no place to go on the baseline? Stop doing that.

Baer: Lots of superlatives to bestow upon him. First and foremost, the kid has a ton of heart and competes every second he is on the floor. I am not a fan of him shooting so many 3's and think he needs to post up and serve as the Iowa version of Draymond Green. Probe the defense with the dribble, try to get a look or dish it off. He has a knack for finding people, has a mid range game + a back to the basket game we have not seen much of. Needs to be more involved in the offense.

Jok: Not the way I hoped he would go out being the best player on a bad team, but that is how it has worked out. Lots of emphasis on his scoring, but he can help himself and the team by being a facilitator first, scorer second. ISU was probably his best all around game. He has no help and will get a lock down defender on one end and have to check that guy on the other. Find some spots inside the arc, look to ball fake, kick it and get it back. Too much holding of the ball leads to stagnancy.

The rest:

Moss, Wagner, Williams, Uhl, and Pemsl: Bring these guys off the bench. Moss and Williams are more suited to open court slashing and pressure vs. half court sets. Pemsl will benefit from less congestion in the paint. Uhl and Wagner high energy guys to press, trap and crash glass. I like Dailey too. Get this kid some minutes and let him run the floor with the up tempo unit.

 

[QChawks]

Can't get worse!

(Barring anymore injures)

 

[TritonHawkeye]

I agree that Kriener should be starting. He seems better suited at the 5 than Pemsl and has outplayed him the past few weeks.

Cook needs to sit. He is a talent offensively but is such a liability on defense and appears to have no real timing for blocking shots. He is a decent offensive rebounder but is terrible rebounding on defense. I am guessing it is because he is always out of position. In my opinion Wagner should start.

I liked how Williams is not afraid of going to the hoop. He may not make many baskets but you have to respect that he is not just a jump shooter. I would like to see him start at the 3 to see what he could do in that spot for a few games.

I also think Dailey is a better ball handler than Williams and should get any backup minutes at that spot.

 

[bravehawks1]

I agree that Kriener should be starting. He seems better suited at the 5 than Pemsl and has outplayed him the past few weeks.

Cook needs to sit. He is a talent offensively but is such a liability on defense and appears to have no real timing for blocking shots. He is a decent offensive rebounder but is terrible rebounding on defense. I am guessing it is because he is always out of position. In my opinion Wagner should start.

I liked how Williams is not afraid of going to the hoop. He may not make many baskets but you have to respect that he is not just a jump shooter. I would like to see him start at the 3 to see what he could do in that spot for a few games.

I also think Dailey is a better ball handler than Williams and should get any backup minutes at that spot.

Agree with everything but Williams. He simply is not D1 level player. Poor ball handler, average passer at best, no shot outside 5 feet and only average defensively but is mainly because of his length. Granted he does have some ability to take it to the basket, but at this level you often get bumped and Williams not strong enough to handle that. If he gets fouled it is almost like a turnover since he is such an awful shooter

 

[mjdejong1]

Agree with everything but Williams. He simply is not D1 level player. Poor ball handler, average passer at best, no shot outside 5 feet and only average defensively but is mainly because of his length. Granted he does have some ability to take it to the basket, but at this level you often get bumped and Williams not strong enough to handle that. If he gets fouled it is almost like a turnover since he is such an awful shooter

Couldn't agree more. Half the time it looks like he is dribbling head down not looking around

 

[BondHawk]

Not sure what everyone is worried about, we are one game out of 5th place with 10 games to go after tonight - just narrowly missing the coveted double bye. Right where we want them.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

I think we can do better at Iowa and maybe that is the reason I am so po'd about Fran missing on so many kids. Iowa basketball can't always be about what a jerk Alford was and how terrible we were under Lickliter. Fran is making a respectable salary, has an experienced staff, new facilities and plays in a power 5 conference. He is recruiting like he is coaching at Western Illinois.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Fran has some "decent guys" coming in. But he needs to get his "white whale" and that is an "athletic PG" someone who can control the game and get into the lane on a regular basis and make his teammates better.

We do not have that right now, nor will we have it for at least 3 more years.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

[

Not sure what everyone is worried about, we are one game out of 5th place with 10 games to go after tonight - just narrowly missing the coveted double bye. Right where we want them.

We need an play maker like AI.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Not sure what everyone is worried about, we are one game out of 5th place with 10 games to go after tonight - just narrowly missing the coveted double bye. Right where we want them.

If this team goes on a 6 game winning streak I will buy ya a beer. I have zero faith in this team right now. They are lacking a leader and there are some players who do not know their role yet. Fran has to start cutting down the playing time of some and just ride the players in the top 8-9.

 

[The Sleeping Dog]

I think we can do better at Iowa and maybe that is the reason I am so po'd about Fran missing on so many kids.

While the boys aren't making the FF or even the Sweet 16 what evidence do you think shows Iowa could do better? I'm hardly a McC apologist but Hawks are coming off five consecutive post season appearances, including three consecutive NCAA tourneys and two consecutive round of 32 appearances. Iowa hasn't had five consecutive post seasons since Dr. Davis' last five seasons-eighteen years ago. This team probably has freshmen that weren't born when the Hawks had the last of those five seasons, also the last Sweet 16.

Iowa's last run of more than three consecutive NCAAs ended in 1983. The seniors on that squad, Bob Hansen and Mark Gannon are turning 56-57 this year. That was 34 seasons ago. The coaches might be recruiting kids 14/15 years old whose parents weren't born the last time Iowa had a run of 4 or more consecutive NCAAs; also the only run of more than three consecutive NCAA appearances in Hawkeye history I think.

Hawks lack a substantial in state recruiting base. I will concede that failing to offer Tuttle and Washpun or not getting them were bigger losses than perhaps they seemed at the time. Otherwise we've won or recaptured pretty much the cream of the Iowa crop

No one in the sporting world outside of eastern Iowa and Iowa alum even think about Iowa basketball. Our conference has a pretty rigid group of haves and have nots and Iowa is a have not. Maybe the upper echelon of the have nots. No one in the B1G office wants to see Iowa taking valuable NCAA slots from the far more lucrative markets in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and now DC/Baltimore. This is not to say there's some conspiracy, just a mindset that triggers no small number of ripples that keep schools like Iowa-we are far from alone-from becoming blue blood programs. Every demographic and social change that has impacted college sports hurts programs like Iowa's and entrenches the blue bloods, making the climb that much harder for the merely pedestrian programs.

As for recruiting, three of last year's seniors included a universal top 75 guy and two other guys that were either an ESPN or Rivals top 100 player. This season's lone senior was a five star top ten player before he blew out the knee and had two major surgeries. He was still the PoY and a Parade AA his senior year-not what it used to be but still a prestigious award by people who know BBall. Now he's the B1G's leading scorer. Assuming the back thing resolves Jok's certain to be 1st team All B1G. That means five consecutive but different McC recruits finished their careers on the first team all conference list. Until Uthoff every one of those kids was a mere three star recruit that few saw coming so McC must be able to coach 'em up when they get to Iowa City.

This freshmen group has a universal top 75 player and two more ESPN 4*s. All three of those guys have had some good games this year. Who knows how high Pemsyl's stock would have moved but for the injuries. Both Pemsyl and Kreiner had pretty major AAU success against high level age comparable competition. Wouldn't most of us agree that Pemsyl and Kreiner have also shown very nice upsides?

Two more top 100 guys coming next season. While recruiting rep, stars and ratings are not conclusive indicia of a player's value and career could we not all also agree that the more of those top 120 ish players you get in a class the greater the probability the class will produce impact starters for the program? The future is as bright as its been in almost twenty seasons, when Dr. Davis brought in Ricky Davis, Dean Oliver and Kyle Galloway, with Collison on the more distant horizon.

While fans should never become complacent-that kills your program as the Alford/Lickliter years proved-we should also not become unrealistically demanding-as the discontent with Dr. Davis proved.

Any evaluation of the state of the program should also include historical perspective. This losing streak with a team dominated by freshmen-as in 6 of the top eight on the roster are freshmen, and one of the eight is sophomore former walk on that became a steal, is tough but they will get better.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

You make some excellent points. I would point to Creighton as a program that was roughly equivalent to Iowa from a recruiting base / talent perspective. They had a nice run with McDermott and could have settled back to mediocrity. Instead the Sr. McDermott recognized that the college landscape has changed and to win in Omaha, you need to be land some east coast guys and sprinkle in some transfers.

Fran and Francis were supposed to have relationships out east. Speraw was going to the conduit to Florida juco kids. Dillard allegedly had connections in Texas. What have these relationship yielded? Melsahn Basabe. While other programs hire recruiters with relationships and pry a 'better than they deserve kid' out of someone's back yard, we are forever recruiting projects. I will grant you that the freshman class is Fran's best class, so maybe we are moving in the right direction.

There are coaches who would come in here and infuse talent via juco / graduate transfers immediately. I am not advocating being an ISU and having a team of tumbleweed transfers, but we should never find ourselves in this Godawful PG predicament.

 

[HawkLogic]

Agree with everything but Williams. He simply is not D1 level player. Poor ball handler, average passer at best, no shot outside 5 feet and only average defensively but is mainly because of his length. Granted he does have some ability to take it to the basket, but at this level you often get bumped and Williams not strong enough to handle that. If he gets fouled it is almost like a turnover since he is such an awful shooter

Seems like CW has a fundamental problem in his game for a perimeter payer---can't shoot from perimeter. You would think Fran could have seen that when he scouted him out of HS and maybe come up with alternative prospect.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

Cook needs to drop the one-handed move to the rim trying to look like the classic Dr J layup. Pretty sure he's lost the ball outright or had it stolen 98% of the time. Go up strong with two-hands and get the bucket and maybe the and-1.

 

[Ronman]

I don't see any value in limiting the minutes of freshmen like Cook and Pemsl. We are not going to the tournament this year, just as many of us thought before the season, so play the kids and let them learn from their mistakes. They will improve more that way than they would watching from the bench. It will be frustrating for Iowa fans, many of who seem to forget the success we've been enjoying under McCaffery, but programs like Iowa have rebuilding years occasionally. Given the attitude of some on this board, they would have shuttled Lute out the door after year four.

 

[bravehawks1]

While the boys aren't making the FF or even the Sweet 16 what evidence do you think shows Iowa could do better? I'm hardly a McC apologist but Hawks are coming off five consecutive post season appearances, including three consecutive NCAA tourneys and two consecutive round of 32 appearances. Iowa hasn't had five consecutive post seasons since Dr. Davis' last five seasons-eighteen years ago. This team probably has freshmen that weren't born when the Hawks had the last of those five seasons, also the last Sweet 16.

Iowa's last run of more than three consecutive NCAAs ended in 1983. The seniors on that squad, Bob Hansen and Mark Gannon are turning 56-57 this year. That was 34 seasons ago. The coaches might be recruiting kids 14/15 years old whose parents weren't born the last time Iowa had a run of 4 or more consecutive NCAAs; also the only run of more than three consecutive NCAA appearances in Hawkeye history I think.

Hawks lack a substantial in state recruiting base. I will concede that failing to offer Tuttle and Washpun or not getting them were bigger losses than perhaps they seemed at the time. Otherwise we've won or recaptured pretty much the cream of the Iowa crop

No one in the sporting world outside of eastern Iowa and Iowa alum even think about Iowa basketball. Our conference has a pretty rigid group of haves and have nots and Iowa is a have not. Maybe the upper echelon of the have nots. No one in the B1G office wants to see Iowa taking valuable NCAA slots from the far more lucrative markets in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and now DC/Baltimore. This is not to say there's some conspiracy, just a mindset that triggers no small number of ripples that keep schools like Iowa-we are far from alone-from becoming blue blood programs. Every demographic and social change that has impacted college sports hurts programs like Iowa's and entrenches the blue bloods, making the climb that much harder for the merely pedestrian programs.

As for recruiting, three of last year's seniors included a universal top 75 guy and two other guys that were either an ESPN or Rivals top 100 player. This season's lone senior was a five star top ten player before he blew out the knee and had two major surgeries. He was still the PoY and a Parade AA his senior year-not what it used to be but still a prestigious award by people who know BBall. Now he's the B1G's leading scorer. Assuming the back thing resolves Jok's certain to be 1st team All B1G. That means five consecutive but different McC recruits finished their careers on the first team all conference list. Until Uthoff every one of those kids was a mere three star recruit that few saw coming so McC must be able to coach 'em up when they get to Iowa City.

This freshmen group has a universal top 75 player and two more ESPN 4*s. All three of those guys have had some good games this year. Who knows how high Pemsyl's stock would have moved but for the injuries. Both Pemsyl and Kreiner had pretty major AAU success against high level age comparable competition. Wouldn't most of us agree that Pemsyl and Kreiner have also shown very nice upsides?

Two more top 100 guys coming next season. While recruiting rep, stars and ratings are not conclusive indicia of a player's value and career could we not all also agree that the more of those top 120 ish players you get in a class the greater the probability the class will produce impact starters for the program? The future is as bright as its been in almost twenty seasons, when Dr. Davis brought in Ricky Davis, Dean Oliver and Kyle Galloway, with Collison on the more distant horizon.

While fans should never become complacent-that kills your program as the Alford/Lickliter years proved-we should also not become unrealistically demanding-as the discontent with Dr. Davis proved.

Any evaluation of the state of the program should also include historical perspective. This losing streak with a team dominated by freshmen-as in 6 of the top eight on the roster are freshmen, and one of the eight is sophomore former walk on that became a steal, is tough but they will get better.

While it is nice to say that Fran has taken this team to consecutive NCAA appearances, please remember that there are now 68 teams invited and one of those years I couldn't even win a play in game to get to the real tourney. In the 80's, I believe this was no bigger than 32 teams so the comparison is not very strong. As for his recruiting, Marble was not a McC recruit, Fran had to get him to recommit so this was more about his father's connection to Iowa. Uthoff was also not someone that Fran could get to IC on the first pass either. And I am pretty confident that Jok would not have come to Iowa if he hadn't gotten hurt and Fran stayed loyal. Then you mention Gesell and Woodbury as top level recruits, but even though Fran got them to IC, he never developed them and they never sniffed all conference recognition as I recall.

 

[Pepperman]

Fran is making a respectable salary, has an experienced staff, new facilities and plays in a power 5 conference. He is recruiting like he is coaching at Western Illinois.

That's Basketball

 

[large78]

Cook
Wagner
Baer
Jok
Bohannon......That needs to be the starting 5 in my opinion.

 

[twindman]

I think Pemsl has a low ceiling. Notice how his production has slacked off after the first few games as teams have him scouted? He has nice moves around the basket, but can't jump anymore than Woody did, it seems. Still waiting for Cook to be aggressive going for boards. If he decides to do that, he will be very good. Kriener needs a chance to show what he has too.

 

[JBJRFL]

I think Pemsl has a low ceiling. Notice how his production has slacked off after the first few games as teams have him scouted? He has nice moves around the basket, but can't jump anymore than Woody did, it seems. Still waiting for Cook to be aggressive going for boards. If he decides to do that, he will be very good. Kriener needs a chance to show what he has too.

It appears to me that his downturn coincides with Cook's return. He is no longer getting fed at lo-post position. He has been setting screens on the perimeter.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Good thread. I agree that Fran has Pemsl running all over the place setting screens, and he often is in no position to stage a shot. I don't see Cook, Wagner or Kriener having to do that as much as Cordell. Miraculously, we've actualy been outscoring teams in the paint, but to me Fran's offense looks awkward. Overly-frequent substitutions also hurt. Of course, maybe the other team is as confused as our players. Puzzling.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Our defense got worse when Cook returned. He has no clue how to play defense or get defensive rebounds. The talent is there, but the know how and effort are not. If Pete can't get back to 100% soon, Iowa might finish in the bottom 3 or 4 in the B1G. With all that negativity, I think that this could become a very good team in the next couple of years, if we can add a top PG. Fran has the other pieces, but someone needs to be able to provide on-ball defense on the other PG and create on the offensive end. The defense is the bigger problem with the current players.

 

[The Sleeping Dog]

We're outscoring people in the paint because Hawk are playing a 6'10", 6'9" and 6'8" player at the two inside positions that can all score with both hands and otherwise good low post offensive skills. Kreiner, Cook and Pemsyl will all be effective low post scorers for the rest of their careers. Wagner and Baer both score around the basket, in different ways.

Now.........for the part about defense............the boys have a lot of work to do.