This has been bandied around alot, but just to look where kids ranked coming out of HS, all weight classes combined, one can see there is a pretty strong correlation to collegiate performance.
Here is a list of guys who were ranked (by decile) p4p in the years 2009-14:
guys who were ranked #1-10:
C Perry
Taylor
Ruth
Dake
Ramos
Steiber
Kindig
McIntosh
Megaludes
A Alton
D Alton
Storley
Tsirtsis
Dance
Cox
Retherford
IMar
B Jordan
Tomasello
Snyder
#11-20
St John
McMullen
D Ness
N Dardanes
Dieringer
Green
Gwiazdowski
Brewer
Brooks
Gilman
Realbuto
Heil
#21-30
Carter
Clark
Sorensen
This list doesn't include everyone, but I tried to list the more famous and more accomplished.
You can see there is talent in each decile (and more still outside the top 30), but it is clear that the top decile has more of the multi AA, multi champ types. The second decile likewise outperformed the #21-30 group.
I'm in the camp that recruiting matters A LOT. Coaching matters a lot too, and I think TNT are the best in the country. They obviously produce AA's, national champs and International FS stars. Where Iowa is falling short is not coaching. PSU has been absolutely killing it in the recruiting battles in past years, when it comes to top decile guys. Iowa has stepped up recently with Marinelli and Mejia, but they need more of that kind of talent. Giving elite guys full rides, selling the Carver experience, etc.... whatever it takes, we need it.