This team would literally have to win out to make the NCAA tournament. I just hope they can find their way into the NIT.
RPI Currently Is 102
- Thread starter IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life
- Start date
Anyone who came in expecting to make the NCAA tourney or still expects this team to make the tourney, has no clue about college basketball. This team is starting to come togther and put things together. Have the last 3 wins been against great competition? No but they have gone out and beat a few teams that have more experience in this conference and some decent talent. If we go 4-3 the rest of the schedule that puts us at 10-8 in conference. I'd be super happy with that result. I think they make the NIT along as we can win at least 3 more games, and if we make the NIT that just means this team gets to practice a few more times together and get in some games against other teams on our level. Then next year we should be a bubble team.
If we win at Minnesota and MSU, then revisit this.
The Big Ten is at best 4-5 teams deep. Very very down year. Not hating on Iowa, just used to seeing more dominant teams in it.
I thought it was in the 90s, but still, a steep uphill climb. 12-6 would absolutely get the job done. But winning 3 of those remaining road tilts would be a major miracle considering our current road resume consists of Rutgers and several blowouts. I'd say the real only viable path involves 2-2 in the road games, sweep at home and then get to Saturday in the BTT, which obviously means a win over Purdue/Wisc/Maryland/NW/MSU on Fri, adding another Top 50 W. that comes out to 21-13. And that's probably a 10 or 11 seed, maybe "First Four". And it does always seem that there's some young team in the B1G that goes on a February heater and becomes solid at the end. Last year it was Wisconsin, a few years ago it was Nebraska. It's nice to have the possibility but I'd say it's about 10-15%
NCAAs not going to happen this year but this is one of the few years where I would enjoy the NIT.
What ESPN has us before the game at 98 plus with teams winning we beat and beating Nebraska should put us at 88-90 on ESPN. And another site had us before the game at 102.....so which Website are you using m?
Also they are fixing the RPI during spring and summer.
I have a feeling they don't use RPI as much this year, we have to losses without cook if key players are out at the end of the year they don't make the loss as harsh.
Also they are fixing the RPI during spring and summer.
I have a feeling they don't use RPI as much this year, we have to losses without cook if key players are out at the end of the year they don't make the loss as harsh.
Live rpi still says 102. I don't get how they stayed at 102 after beating Nebraska (top 100 win) and also after Iowa State beat Kansas.
Can't schedule that many teams in the high 200s and low 300s. Can't lose to Omaha.
Comes down to this, imo. Minnesota's RPI is 23. We have to beat them. The rest is speculation.
IU is likely to finish .500 or below
MN and MSU could finish .500 or below
We get to decide it on the court against all of them (2 on the road). The two toughest games to win left on the schedule are MD and WI. Win all the rest, and we're 11-7, with the best that MSU, MN and IU could hope for is 10-8 or 9-9. We finish 2 games ahead of all of them, and beat them, and we'd get an NCAA bid over any of them.
Of course, any of them could get 'hot' and beat the PU, MD, WI teams they have to play to get in, too. Win 2/3 vs. IU, MSU, MN and we'd have a shot; win all 3 and we'd likely have sole possession of 5th place in the standings.
5 BT teams will make the tourney, maybe (PU, MD, NU, WI and one TBD). But we need to beat the other teams that are also 'bubble' teams right now.
MI: done.
MSU, MN, IU: opportunity is there
MD, WI: unlikely, but an upset over either could get us to 12-6 or 11-7.
We just have no margin for error in the remaining games. Lose 2 more and we're in good shape. Lose 3 and we'd need a strong BTT showing, and maybe some help from the others collapsing. Lose 4 and we may not even make the NIT at 9-9 in the league.
This is a team that was very disorganized and inexperienced in the first 10 games of the season. They've improved a ton since then; anything could happen from here on out.
MN and MSU could finish .500 or below
We get to decide it on the court against all of them (2 on the road). The two toughest games to win left on the schedule are MD and WI. Win all the rest, and we're 11-7, with the best that MSU, MN and IU could hope for is 10-8 or 9-9. We finish 2 games ahead of all of them, and beat them, and we'd get an NCAA bid over any of them.
Of course, any of them could get 'hot' and beat the PU, MD, WI teams they have to play to get in, too. Win 2/3 vs. IU, MSU, MN and we'd have a shot; win all 3 and we'd likely have sole possession of 5th place in the standings.
5 BT teams will make the tourney, maybe (PU, MD, NU, WI and one TBD). But we need to beat the other teams that are also 'bubble' teams right now.
MI: done.
MSU, MN, IU: opportunity is there
MD, WI: unlikely, but an upset over either could get us to 12-6 or 11-7.
We just have no margin for error in the remaining games. Lose 2 more and we're in good shape. Lose 3 and we'd need a strong BTT showing, and maybe some help from the others collapsing. Lose 4 and we may not even make the NIT at 9-9 in the league.
This is a team that was very disorganized and inexperienced in the first 10 games of the season. They've improved a ton since then; anything could happen from here on out.
RPI is flawed. You have to try to schedule the smaller school teams that are towards the top of their conference. That is sometimes hard to predict. But, assuming you beat them, that can change your RPI a great deal. We played a hard preseason schedule, but our RPI doesn't reflect that.
It's not really that hard to predict, don't play SWAC or MEAC schools is a good rule to start with.
NCAA is looking at changing it after this season. They had a meeting with a bunch of metric people and they are trying to figure out the "perfect" metric to use.
The committee members were even in on this meeting. So I guess the RPI will not be weighted as much as in the past.
Since Fran has been here, the worst 5 teams on our out-of-conference schedule have been really bad, and every year that makes our RPI look significantly worse than our rankings from other metrics. For example, this year the worst 5 teams (and their expected RPI) in our OOC schedule were:
In the end, I don't think the cupcake portion of our schedule will cost us this year, because we haven't played well enough to be a tournament team, however, it has cost us seeding in the past few years and probably an NCAA tournament berth in 2013. We finished 29th in the Kenpom rankings in 2013, but had an ugly RPI ranking of 67 due to 5 teams on our OOC schedule ranked worse than 300.
- Stetson (331)
- Delaware State (329)
- UT Rio Grande Valley (298)
- Savannah State (295)
- Kennesaw State (274)
In the end, I don't think the cupcake portion of our schedule will cost us this year, because we haven't played well enough to be a tournament team, however, it has cost us seeding in the past few years and probably an NCAA tournament berth in 2013. We finished 29th in the Kenpom rankings in 2013, but had an ugly RPI ranking of 67 due to 5 teams on our OOC schedule ranked worse than 300.
Yes you cannot play those teams, but you also have to realize that most of the 100-200 schools want something in return (2 for 1) type of set up. Those schools are willing to take the $$ and not ask for anything in return. That's how they fund their programs.
I agree that Iowa has plenty of options to play teams around the midwest (MVC, C-USA, HORIZON, SUMMIT, and MAC). Those teams are usually in the top 250 of the RPI and will not hurt your RPI as bad as the MEAC, SWAC and others. If I am the schedule maker I look to those conferences first for non-conf action. Then fill in the open holes with a MEAC, MAAC, SWAC and others.
But like I said they are changing the RPI so who knows how scheduling will be factored into it next year. Might be a mute point.
Play a 2 for 1 then, road wins are RPI gold, even if it's just over a team ranked 175th, that counts as 1.4 wins. And if you lose a road game against a decent opponent, it's not that big of deal. I'm not one to defend the RPI but as long as it's being used, you might as well play the game.
Iowa's RPI isn't helped by losing to Nebraska and Illinois in BT play. Win those games, and you're probably 10 or more notches up.
You want your RPI to go up in conference play, you need to beat teams with higher RPIs.
MN, MSU and IU are those teams. If we lose those games, we really have little to complain about, as all 3 of them are bubble teams right now. If you cannot beat a bubble team, you don't belong in the NCAA tournament.
Beating MI and PU has us still in contention - those are nice resume wins, but MI is also fading.
You want your RPI to go up in conference play, you need to beat teams with higher RPIs.
MN, MSU and IU are those teams. If we lose those games, we really have little to complain about, as all 3 of them are bubble teams right now. If you cannot beat a bubble team, you don't belong in the NCAA tournament.
Beating MI and PU has us still in contention - those are nice resume wins, but MI is also fading.
I think that 10-8 and a win or two in the BTT would be a really good finish. That probably would get the Hawks in the NIT. NCAA is not impossible, but after the pre-B1G schedule, highly unlikely. I was ready to give up on the team after the Illannoy loss, but you have to give the coaches and the players credit for improving without their most talented player. Two wins this week would be a great start to a memorable late season run.
NIT is the key thing. Minimum is to go 9-9 to get into NIT so lets start with getting those wins and go from there.
The biggest problem with all the RPI rankings are the 300 games.
Truthfully, the bad teams at 200 are not any different than 300 but the number skews the statistics. If they treated every team over 200 as "200" in the numbers, it wouldn't penalize for "bad luck" on getting terrible number team versus bad.
The biggest problem with all the RPI rankings are the 300 games.
Truthfully, the bad teams at 200 are not any different than 300 but the number skews the statistics. If they treated every team over 200 as "200" in the numbers, it wouldn't penalize for "bad luck" on getting terrible number team versus bad.
I'd agree with the sentiment that there is almost no way to get to the NCAA. Honestly with the remaining schedule, the NIT might still be a stretch, but let's see how the Hawks finish. The four road games are some of the most difficult places to go in the league, with Wednesday night at Minnesota being easily the most winnable.
As others have said, the RPI is a very archaic method, and most have been saying this for years (not just because Iowa is so low). The other metrics are so much more dynamic when you dig into them. The committee is free to use any of these (not just the over-quoted RPI) - Kempom has Iowa 70 and Sagarin has Iowa 67.
As others have said, the RPI is a very archaic method, and most have been saying this for years (not just because Iowa is so low). The other metrics are so much more dynamic when you dig into them. The committee is free to use any of these (not just the over-quoted RPI) - Kempom has Iowa 70 and Sagarin has Iowa 67.
I agree that we should play some "road" games in the non-conf. It seems like we play the BIG 4 classic, @ ISU (every other year), and then a neutral site tournament. The rest of our games are at home. If they could set it up where they play 1-2 road games in the years they get ISU at home. Then the years they play @ ISU they don't schedule any road game??
There are options out there and I hope moving forward Fran and company go out and schedule some at least decent teams. I mean look at teams who are in the top 200 first and try and get them on the schedule. Then if you have 1-2 dates open then call the MEACS and other SWAC schools.
Some teams Iowa could play that are top 150 RPI:
Loyola Chicago
Northern ILL
Illinois State
Akron
Southern ILL
South Dakota
Green Bay
Ohio
NDSU
Valpo
Nebraska Omaha
Denver
So there are options out there. I don't know how Iowa would work it to go play a MVC school at their place (after the whole UNI thing).
Iowa offered UNI a 2 for 1 deal before the Big Four Classic was created if I'm remembering right. If UNI turned it down but Southern Illinois or Bradley or someone else wants to take that deal, I wouldn't see how that's a problem.
Kennesaw St. 285
Savannah St. 303
Seton Hall 37
Texas-Rio Grande Valley 315
Virginia 14
Memphis 85
Notre Dame 28
Nebraska Omaha 149
Stetson 335
Iowa St. 40
Northern Iowa 153
North Dakota 222
Delaware St. 334
I don't consider playing 1 Top 20 team and 4 Top 50 games a hard preseason. That portion of the schedule is solid for a P5 member.
What is unreasonable is playing 5 teams with RPI at 285 or lower; 4 of those in the 300s.
With a younger team, maybe Fran scheduled those teams intentionally. Get some wins, get better and gain confidence pre Big Ten. Then get in the league and prove yourself and give yourself a chance to get those resume boosting W's. Now they have that opportunity right in front of them. Or not, IDK.
Love all the people giving the Hawks "no chance" when they are probably in if they go 5-2 down the stretch. Tough road games are left for sure, but why would you count them out before they are actually out? And it's not even that crazy to think about them making it. Going 5-2 against a week Big Ten is not that crazy.
Also I will say that it doesn't help that UNI is having a bad season. They are usually a top 100 team and they struggled.
ISU has also struggled, but they just beat #2 KU and hopefully will go on a roll. If they can get into the top 25, that would be another top 25 win for the hawks.
UNO also needs to win some games, if they can get close to 100 that will help Iowa.
But overall the 5 teams RPI 280+ is not good. Those teams should not be scheduled no matter what. I realize two of them were because of the pre-season tournament.
ISU has also struggled, but they just beat #2 KU and hopefully will go on a roll. If they can get into the top 25, that would be another top 25 win for the hawks.
UNO also needs to win some games, if they can get close to 100 that will help Iowa.
But overall the 5 teams RPI 280+ is not good. Those teams should not be scheduled no matter what. I realize two of them were because of the pre-season tournament.
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